2013-14 International Free Agency Thread

[craig]

The Cubs supposedly have an intelligent, thoughtful saber/computer/data-informed management team. This is exactly the kind of landscape where their analysis should helpful. I'd love to be in the room to hear them argue through these questions.

 

I assume they know what Kyle knows, that stud young players are more likely to stay studly than teenage pitchers. If they can find a player good enough to justify a $2+ deal, I'll love it and prefer it. But if they spend $2 on a teen pitcher, I'll have to believe they see such superior potential that it justifies, despite the risk. We've certainly heard Theo comment on the draft, how historically high-pick pitchers don't produce as well as high-pick players, and how more premium pitchers emerge from non-high picks than is true for players. I've got to assume analogous trends apply to internationals, and they know it.

[craig]

The player-vs-pitcher discussion is fascinating, but so is big-ticket versus spread-it-around. I wonder what the data is there, and what Theo's take is?

 

I've got a sense he may perhaps be a believer in the big ticket. That one star matters more than volume. Three things come to mind:

1. Almora. The whole draft centered around Almora, and mostly settled for slot or subslot thereafter.

2. Convention: Theo said the most important day of the year will be Day 1 of the draft. Not day 2....

3. Paniagua $$$ was not spread around.

 

Obviously unconvincing. Draft isn't international; Paniagua was 22, unique; and they loved Almora.

 

But I wonder whether they don't believe that one elite prospect is worth more than a volume of good but non-elites? We'll see how I all plays out this summer.

[davell]

I don't really like the idea of giving millions to 16 year old pitchers, but I'm OK with drafting HS pitchers in the 1st round, so I guess my age cutoff is 17-18ish. Michael Ynoa sticks in my mind as a 16 year old and the pitfalls that come with huge money on kids that young. As for IFA strategy- I love what path we took in 2012. Huge ceiling, older pitcher, high ceiling, relatively high floor middle infielder(as high a floor as a 16 can have anyway) and lots of projection guys after that. With close to 5 mill to spend, I'm hoping we get 3 seven figure types(and a 500k type or 2) or 2, with 3-4 500k types, to go along with the projectability guys that come cheaper.

[davell]

I'll say this though: The quantity approach is likely the best way, if you have enough space on your rosters to continually do it. If we took 10 guys at 400k and another 4 at 200k, it'd be very interesting to see the results. Of course, it comes down to supply and demand and its not likely we coukd basically corner that market.

[Guest]

The player-vs-pitcher discussion is fascinating, but so is big-ticket versus spread-it-around. I wonder what the data is there, and what Theo's take is?

 

I've got a sense he may perhaps be a believer in the big ticket. That one star matters more than volume. Three things come to mind:

1. Almora. The whole draft centered around Almora, and mostly settled for slot or subslot thereafter.

2. Convention: Theo said the most important day of the year will be Day 1 of the draft. Not day 2....

3. Paniagua $$$ was not spread around.

 

Obviously unconvincing. Draft isn't international; Paniagua was 22, unique; and they loved Almora.

 

But I wonder whether they don't believe that one elite prospect is worth more than a volume of good but non-elites? We'll see how I all plays out this summer.

 

I think davell nailed it - a solely quantity approach (assuming we mean sub-$400,000 bonuses) just doesn't work because there aren't enough of that type of player and you may end up losing out on guys you like who end up a smidge more expensive. You go cheaper and you enter White Sox territory of just being cheap.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That's the big difference for me. If there's no older pitchers like that, I'd prefer any big purchases be a position player.

If 18 is not in your definition of "older" international amateur pitchers, you've completely limited the sample of high profile arms. The only two I can think of in recent years who signed at 20 or older are Paniagua and Rafael DePaula (Yankees). I would never want to intentionally limit the talent pool.

 

Like you, I have no problem passing on high profile 16-year old Latin American pitchers.

 

I'm ok with never signing any high-profile IFA arms.

[Guest]

That's the big difference for me. If there's no older pitchers like that, I'd prefer any big purchases be a position player.

If 18 is not in your definition of "older" international amateur pitchers, you've completely limited the sample of high profile arms. The only two I can think of in recent years who signed at 20 or older are Paniagua and Rafael DePaula (Yankees). I would never want to intentionally limit the talent pool.

 

Like you, I have no problem passing on high profile 16-year old Latin American pitchers.

 

I'm ok with never signing any high-profile IFA arms.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13074&position=P

[craig]

As Dave notes, we can perhaps sign a couple of big tickets and get several others too. Obviously it's a huge summer for the team. Getting #2 pick and international money is a rare opportunity and may not happen again for a long, long time. (Unless it happens again in 2014...)

 

However they divvy it up internationally, whether it's focused on one big stud, a couple of $1-2 million range guys, or really spread around, I trust that they'll be pretty thoughtful and analytical about what they try. And I know they'll be investing a whole lot of scouting time on this. I think the ideas would be a player who was so outstanding that we could justify $3 or whatever, and that in due time he'd look as promising as Solar/Baez/Almora do now.

 

But I'll accept whatever they do, and hope for the best.

 

A pitching rotation can come together pretty quickly, sometimes. Perhaps two years from now, a camp with Samardz/Appel/Paniagua/Jackson/Garza/Johnson/Vizcaino might perhaps look very gifted. Position players, though, that's going to take longer even if guys work out.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The Cubs supposedly have an intelligent, thoughtful saber/computer/data-informed management team. This is exactly the kind of landscape where their analysis should helpful. I'd love to be in the room to hear them argue through these questions.

 

I assume they know what Kyle knows, that stud young players are more likely to stay studly than teenage pitchers. If they can find a player good enough to justify a $2+ deal, I'll love it and prefer it. But if they spend $2 on a teen pitcher, I'll have to believe they see such superior potential that it justifies, despite the risk. We've certainly heard Theo comment on the draft, how historically high-pick pitchers don't produce as well as high-pick players, and how more premium pitchers emerge from non-high picks than is true for players. I've got to assume analogous trends apply to internationals, and they know it.

 

The board would be even more boring than it already is if we take a "we'll just wait and see what the front office does and assume that's right" attitude.

 

I trust them, too, of course.

[davell]

Yeah, its good to know that at least we've got an FO thats had this very debate and has numbers and odds on all this stuff.

[craig]

....The board would be even more boring than it already is if we take a "we'll just wait and see what the front office does and assume that's right" attitude.

 

I trust them, too, of course.

 

True enough.

 

Heh, If Hendry or Stockstill or Wilken (or Fleita internationally) took a pick that seemed counter to history and seemed to be going against the odds, it was easy to assume that they were just ignorant or impulsive, and did it without even knowing or realizing the risk. With the new guys, if/when they do go "against the odds", I think we'll know that it isn't because they hadn't studied the history. They'll know the risks, and will be pretty thorough and informed in their risk analyses.

 

Yes, of course it's the nature of the board to discuss and debate and argue and criticize! But at least for now, it's fun trusting that the decision-makers know what they're doing and will make intelligent, informed decisions. If they do something curious, you know there will be some reason for it. I sure don't feel that way about my favorite basketball team the Milwaukee Bucks, and I haven't often felt that way about the Cubs before.

 

I like it.

[mul21]

It really is strange having gone from a "What the hell are they thinking?" type of reaction to a "What do they know that we don't that made them think this is a good idea?" reaction with the new FO. As much as I'd love to be a fly on the wall in any FO, this one would be particularly interesting to me because you know there's so much analysis and thought that goes into every move.

[dabynsky]

The player-vs-pitcher discussion is fascinating, but so is big-ticket versus spread-it-around. I wonder what the data is there, and what Theo's take is?

 

I've got a sense he may perhaps be a believer in the big ticket. That one star matters more than volume. Three things come to mind:

1. Almora. The whole draft centered around Almora, and mostly settled for slot or subslot thereafter.

2. Convention: Theo said the most important day of the year will be Day 1 of the draft. Not day 2....

3. Paniagua $$$ was not spread around.

 

Obviously unconvincing. Draft isn't international; Paniagua was 22, unique; and they loved Almora.

 

But I wonder whether they don't believe that one elite prospect is worth more than a volume of good but non-elites? We'll see how I all plays out this summer.

 

I think davell nailed it - a solely quantity approach (assuming we mean sub-$400,000 bonuses) just doesn't work because there aren't enough of that type of player and you may end up losing out on guys you like who end up a smidge more expensive. You go cheaper and you enter White Sox territory of just being cheap.

Well the recent interview Theo Epstein did with Kaplan seems to confirm this line of thinking. When asked about international amateurs he said that they were looking for impact and not organizational depth. The focus on biggest impact would seem to indicate that they are going to go for big ticket items in international market again.

[craig]

.. ...Well the recent interview Theo Epstein did with Kaplan seems to confirm this line of thinking. When asked about international amateurs he said that they were looking for impact and not organizational depth. The focus on biggest impact would seem to indicate that they are going to go for big ticket items in international market again.

 

thanks for sharing that.

[Guest]

From the WBC, a new Cuban name to follow (along Abreu, Arruebarruena, Depspaigne and Gourriel):

 

@BenBadler: Yasmany Tomas getting the start for Cuba in RF over Alexei Bell. Tomas (22) looking like one of the younger breakout guys here. #wbc

 

@BenBadler: Like I said, Yasmany Tomas. Breakout player for Cuba. #wbc

 

@BenBadler: Looked great in BP too. Limited look, but I'm a fan so far. RT @ATLMonty Wow, what was that you were saying about Tomas?

[craig]

Tell me again, how old does a Cuban need to be before he gets beyond the signing cap? Age 22?

[davell]

23

[Guest]

Tell me again, how old does a Cuban need to be before he gets beyond the signing cap? Age 22?

 

At least age 23 and he has to have played three seasons in Cuban professional leagues (it's five years for players coming from the NPB or KBO).

[Guest]

More on Tomas:

 

Baseball America[/url]"]Cuba took a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the third inning on a home run by right fielder Yasmany Tomas, who got the start over Alexei Bell. Tomas, 22, has shown plus raw power and has looked like one of the young breakout players on the Cuban national team.

 

Also, here's a name to watch for in the next few years, when it comes time for NPB stars to get posted:

 

The bright spot for Japan was righthander Masahiro Tanaka, who struggled in a brief outing in the first game of the tournament against Brazil but had sharp stuff tonight. Tanaka, 24, is Japan's best pitcher and will be key for them rest of the WBC. Tanaka allowed one run in two innings, and while Cuba's hitters squared him up early for three hits, he didn't walk anyone and struck out six of the 11 hitters he faced. Tanaka sat at 91-94 mph with his fastball and mixed in a wipeout slider that exposed the weaknesses of several Cuban hitters. 

 

Obviously his stuff isn't as good as Matsuzaka or Darvish's.

[KingCubsFan]

Tell me again, how old does a Cuban need to be before he gets beyond the signing cap? Age 22?

 

At least age 23 and he has to have played three seasons in Cuban professional leagues (it's five years for players coming from the NPB or KBO).

When does Abreu become available? Badler was really talking him up too.

[Cubswin11]

Tell me again, how old does a Cuban need to be before he gets beyond the signing cap? Age 22?

 

At least age 23 and he has to have played three seasons in Cuban professional leagues (it's five years for players coming from the NPB or KBO).

When does Abreu become available? Badler was really talking him up too.

He's already 26 so whenever he wants to/is able to defect. Usually defecting stuff is kept pretty quiet, as some have talked about on here, so it's entirely possible he's in the process of defecting right now.

[Guest]

Abreu is easily the best player in Cuba right now.

 

The easiest way to defect is in the middle of an international tourney; that's how Aroldis Chapman, amongst others, did it. And I'm sure the Cuban government knows this and is keeping up tabs on all of their players during the WBC. Obviously it won't be announced prior to happening (otherwise the Cuban government would probably do something about it!).

[KingCubsFan]

Tell me again, how old does a Cuban need to be before he gets beyond the signing cap? Age 22?

 

At least age 23 and he has to have played three seasons in Cuban professional leagues (it's five years for players coming from the NPB or KBO).

When does Abreu become available? Badler was really talking him up too.

He's already 26 so whenever he wants to/is able to defect. Usually defecting stuff is kept pretty quiet, as some have talked about on here, so it's entirely possible he's in the process of defecting right now.

Makes sense, given that Badler said he could step right into the majors. I have to think the bidding would be right around Cespedes. Hopefully the Cubs wouldn't let him go this time.

[Cubswin11]

Tell me again, how old does a Cuban need to be before he gets beyond the signing cap? Age 22?

 

At least age 23 and he has to have played three seasons in Cuban professional leagues (it's five years for players coming from the NPB or KBO).

When does Abreu become available? Badler was really talking him up too.

He's already 26 so whenever he wants to/is able to defect. Usually defecting stuff is kept pretty quiet, as some have talked about on here, so it's entirely possible he's in the process of defecting right now.

Makes sense, given that Badler said he could step right into the majors. I have to think the bidding would be right around Cespedes. Hopefully the Cubs wouldn't let him go this time.

He's a 1B so unless we plan on moving Rizzo or he can play OF/3B I doubt we'd have a ton of interest. He seems pretty athletic, or at least athletic enough, that he should be able to be passable in the OF. I have no idea if he has any experience playing a something other than 1B or if he'd even be open to a change, however.

[Guest]

Abreu is strictly a 1B.

 

Here is Jonah Keri's piece on Abreu from last year: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7601600/cuba-jose-abreu-migh-best-offensive-weapon-planet