Re: Projecting the 2013 Cubs

[Exile on Waveland]

here's an exercise that'll make you feel more at peace: Travis Wood's outproduced CJ Wilson per bWAR since the start of last season; pretend to yourself that we're paying him $80M to do so and you'll feel much, much happier about management's level of devotion and effort

 

similarly, when Rizzo produces similarly to Pujols & Fielder the next several years as he's projected to do, convince yourself that we're paying him $200-$250M to do so and you'll assuredly be pleased as punch about it

 

That does not make me feel much more at peace. I didn't want C.J. Wilson (because he does not have elite talent/stuff for his contract and there was a serious correlation/causation issue with the "lack of mileage" on his arm). Instead, I wanted Edwin Jackson last year (2.0 WAR). It does seem the front office realized, admitted, and rectified this mistake. But . . . should they have not foreseen this? (And it is actually a problem even though that 2.0 WAR wouldn't have made last year's Cubs a contender--there is only so much time/recruitment one team can do in free agency; perhaps the time spent on Jackson this year could have been spent on a similar player.)

 

Next, like it or not, the jury is still out on Anthony Rizzo. While I like what I've seen so far, it is far too early to say with confidence that he will be producing similarly to Prince Fielder in the next several years (Fielder, not Albert Pujols, being who I wanted because I think the "fat players age worse" logic has an even more serious correlation/causation issue). Now, if you're asking if I'd rather have Rizzo and the spare cash, yeah, I probably would--based on the assumption that the money actually would be allocated elsewhere. Still waiting on that.

[mul21]

Under what owner/GM were the following contracts given out?

 

Soriano

Garza

Marmol

 

That's a lot of money right there for guys who might be traded this season.

 

I don't like how things are going, and I think this is a 100 loss team, but Ricketts and Theo aren't to blame at the moment. They may or may not end up righting the ship, but this organization slowly got worse under the Tribune and Hendry era.

 

Garza's an arbitration guy on a series of one year contracts until he becomes a FA, so technically his current contract came under Theo's regime.

 

And would people quit bitching about Soriano's contract? It may not have been a great deal but he's produced at about the dollar level he's being paid.

[Backtobanks]

There you go giving Ricketts a pass. He is an extremely successful businessman and owning a business isn't static either. So exactly what has changed drastically from what he knew (or should have known) when he bought the Cubs?

 

What "pass?" What changed is their effort to try and get city/state funding for the renovations. What, they weren't supposed to even try? I'm sure they were hoping they'd be able to work something out and their rhetoric reflected as such. Why are you so pissed at them saying they wanted to try and get outside funding? My "pass" is using some common sense and not sulking like a petulant child just because they gave trying to get public funding a shot and it didn't work out.

 

And quit talking like you (or any of us) have any clue as to the detail of the Ricketts' money and what's tied up where and what's changed along the way. I'm annoyed with how things are going, so quit it with your tiresome board cop bull [expletive] where you think everyone is just slobbering all over the Ricketts and Theo and never thinking they do anything wrong.

 

I'm not "pissed" about trying to get outside funding. My point is that Ricketts knew the state of the economy when he bought the team. He spent the money on the purchase, has invested tons more on real estate investments, has made a lot of profit in the last year, and the product on the field sucks.

[Sammy Sofa]

There you go giving Ricketts a pass. He is an extremely successful businessman and owning a business isn't static either. So exactly what has changed drastically from what he knew (or should have known) when he bought the Cubs?

 

What "pass?" What changed is their effort to try and get city/state funding for the renovations. What, they weren't supposed to even try? I'm sure they were hoping they'd be able to work something out and their rhetoric reflected as such. Why are you so pissed at them saying they wanted to try and get outside funding? My "pass" is using some common sense and not sulking like a petulant child just because they gave trying to get public funding a shot and it didn't work out.

 

And quit talking like you (or any of us) have any clue as to the detail of the Ricketts' money and what's tied up where and what's changed along the way. I'm annoyed with how things are going, so quit it with your tiresome board cop bull [expletive] where you think everyone is just slobbering all over the Ricketts and Theo and never thinking they do anything wrong.

 

I'm not "pissed" about trying to get outside funding. My point is that Ricketts knew the state of the economy when he bought the team. He spent the money on the purchase, has invested tons more on real estate investments, has made a lot of profit in the last year, and the product on the field sucks.

 

So your desire is...what? That they just come out and say "we don't have the money to spend big on the team?" That they bowed out of trying to buy the team in the first place? Costs for players fluctuate, costs for owning the team fluctuate, the money they have available fluctuates...that's what I'm talking about when I say things change. You keep talking about this like they're supposed to be able to map out all of their spending in perpetuity exactly.

[Little Slide Rooter]

To those ready to chalk up Epstein as an epic fail, what were you expecting from him when you were celebrating his signing?

 

To immediately take what he was given and spin it into a contender? Because lest we forget, when he took over the Red Sox, he built off a perenial 90 game winner. Some of his large scale trades may have paid off, but at the time, his team was strong enough that he could afford to give up prospects for win now players. He could probably do some trades similar to those right about now, but it would derail what he's built, and even if it did crank us up to an 80 game winner, it wouldn't be long before we were back to a roster heavy in aging players with large contracts. His FA signing doesn't seem to be anything special, at least post 2005. A lot of them were disasters. Lackey, Dice-K, Crawford anyone?

 

His draft record and the farm system are where he shined. To anyone ready to railroad him out of town, turn off the game for the next year or 2 and follow the minor leagues, but before you do so, take a look at what they looked like when he took over. To me, he seems pretty much as advertised so far. Not his fault that fans had delusions of becoming an instant 90 game winner.

[Sammy Sofa]

Effectively trashing the ML team (and that you'd willfully suggest that people should just shrug it off and ignore it for YEARS) isn't acceptable.

[SouthSideRyan]

Effectively trashing the ML team (and that you'd willfully suggest that people should just shrug it off and ignore it for YEARS) isn't acceptable.

 

Yep, this is my 2nd least favorite device of the fans of the process. "You'll feel sorry about this when we win the division in 2017!!!" Oh really, because I'm feeling pretty shitty about 2013 now.

[Exile on Waveland]

Effectively trashing the ML team (and that you'd willfully suggest that people should just shrug it off and ignore it for YEARS) isn't acceptable.

 

Yep, this is my 2nd least favorite device of the fans of the process. "You'll feel sorry about this when we win the division in 2017!!!" Oh really, because I'm feeling pretty [expletive] about 2013 now.

 

Because the Cubs will certainly win the division in 2017. And certainly the only path to winning the division in 2017 was tanking multiple seasons. And the current front office is certainly the only front office that could muster such a feat.

[Sammy Sofa]

Effectively trashing the ML team (and that you'd willfully suggest that people should just shrug it off and ignore it for YEARS) isn't acceptable.

 

Yep, this is my 2nd least favorite device of the fans of the process. "You'll feel sorry about this when we win the division in 2017!!!" Oh really, because I'm feeling pretty [expletive] about 2013 now.

 

Because the Cubs will certainly win the division in 2017. And certainly the only path to winning the division in 2017 was tanking multiple seasons. And the current front office is certainly the only front office that could muster such a feat.

 

It's just the denial process; you've got people convincing themselves this had to happen, you've got Backtobanks over there convinced that everything must have been planned ahead of time so that of course what's going on now is some kind of nefarious plan to...do something, I guess. The owners have made mistakes. The FO has made mistakes. The team is shittier because of it.

[Tracer Bullet]

Denial?

[Sammy Sofa]

You don't think someone flat-out saying "hey, just ignore the team for couple more years and it'll be OK" isn't some kind of denial as to just how badly the ML team has been constructed and how that should be unacceptable?

[jersey cubs fan]

You don't think someone flat-out saying "hey, just ignore the team for couple more years and it'll be OK" isn't some kind of denial as to just how badly the ML team has been constructed and how that should be unacceptable?

 

Sounds more like joyful acceptance at how badly it has been constructed, but denial of how ridiculous that stance is.

[Sammy Sofa]

You don't think someone flat-out saying "hey, just ignore the team for couple more years and it'll be OK" isn't some kind of denial as to just how badly the ML team has been constructed and how that should be unacceptable?

 

Sounds more like joyful acceptance at how badly it has been constructed, but denial of how ridiculous that stance is.

 

Pretty much.

[Sosa21MVP]

Ewwww I agree with N&G. Gross.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Ewwww I agree with N&G. Gross.

 

Even when I don't agree with him, I love that guy. There are so many great posters on this board, but Nuts remains my favorite.

[Backtobanks]

To those ready to chalk up Epstein as an epic fail, what were you expecting from him when you were celebrating his signing?

 

To immediately take what he was given and spin it into a contender? Because lest we forget, when he took over the Red Sox, he built off a perenial 90 game winner. Some of his large scale trades may have paid off, but at the time, his team was strong enough that he could afford to give up prospects for win now players. He could probably do some trades similar to those right about now, but it would derail what he's built, and even if it did crank us up to an 80 game winner, it wouldn't be long before we were back to a roster heavy in aging players with large contracts. His FA signing doesn't seem to be anything special, at least post 2005. A lot of them were disasters. Lackey, Dice-K, Crawford anyone?

 

His draft record and the farm system are where he shined. To anyone ready to railroad him out of town, turn off the game for the next year or 2 and follow the minor leagues, but before you do so, take a look at what they looked like when he took over. To me, he seems pretty much as advertised so far. Not his fault that fans had delusions of becoming an instant 90 game winner.

 

I posted when Theo came that he had no experience in making a bad team better or tearing apart a roster and starting over by building through the farm system. That doesn't mean he can't be successful at it. As you stated he took a solid 89 win (average over 5 years) team and turned them into a consistent 93 win team (over his reign as GM). That is impressive, but nothing similar to the Cub situation. He did extremely well with draft and picking up discards from other teams, but the new CBA has and the increased use of sabermetrics by other teams has certainly affected the advantage that he seemingly had over other teams. Lastly he had a huge payroll to sustain the winning ways of the Red Sox. I don't know how many people expected 90 game winners right away, but I don't think anybody expected 100 loss teams either. The frustration comes from knowing that this could go on for longer than even Theo planned, especially if Baez, Soler, or Almora don't reach their potential.

[Sammy Sofa]

Right, a lot of the excitement stemmed from the idea that Theo was going to have all of the weapons of a big market team at his disposal. Some of what got in the way was just shitty "luck"/timing, like the new CBA. Pretty much everyone should have understood that what he took over in Boston and what he was getting in Chicago were very different situations, but the hope/expectation was that they wouldn't go careening face-first into the bottom while trying to right the ship, and that the Cubs as a whole are seemingly stuck in neutral outside of the draft and (hopefully) IFA for a variety of reasons is really, really frustrating and disappointing.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Right, a lot of the excitement stemmed from the idea that Theo was going to have all of the weapons of a big market team at his disposal. Some of what got in the way was just [expletive] "luck"/timing, like the new CBA. Pretty much everyone should have understood that what he took over in Boston and what he was getting in Chicago were very different situations, but the hope/expectation was that they wouldn't go careening face-first into the bottom while trying to right the ship, and that the Cubs as a whole are seemingly stuck in neutral outside of the draft and (hopefully) IFA for a variety of reasons is really, really frustrating and disappointing.

 

The only weapon he had was money.

He could have thrown a ton of it at the free agent market . Maybe he should have thrown more than he did. However most of the experts commended him for resisting the big money guys.

 

But who knows, as scarce as blue chip free agents are becoming these days, maybe he should have been wiling to splurge on Fielder, Darvish, Cespedes to build around and gone from there. He still could have had Stewart as his lottery ticket, as well as Soler. With the amount of money that was coming off the payroll at the time, it wouldn't have crippled the team going forward. Fielder, Cespedes, and Castro would have been a hell of a core to build around with Garza and Darvish anchoring the rotation (I leave out Shark because at the time, nobody expected him to emerge as he has thus far)

[jersey cubs fan]

However most of the experts commended him for resisting the big money guys.

 

Because experts are idiots who buy the notion of necessary restraint. The uninformed consensus opinion about the Cubs was that they spent too much on players before. Spending less is going to make those uninformed people happy.

[Sammy Sofa]

Right, a lot of the excitement stemmed from the idea that Theo was going to have all of the weapons of a big market team at his disposal. Some of what got in the way was just [expletive] "luck"/timing, like the new CBA. Pretty much everyone should have understood that what he took over in Boston and what he was getting in Chicago were very different situations, but the hope/expectation was that they wouldn't go careening face-first into the bottom while trying to right the ship, and that the Cubs as a whole are seemingly stuck in neutral outside of the draft and (hopefully) IFA for a variety of reasons is really, really frustrating and disappointing.

 

The only weapon he had was money.

 

Yeah, man, "only" money.

 

And ditto what Jersey said to the rest of the nonsense.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Not sure what the problem is. Last year, people were pretty accepting that it would be 2-3 years before things started looking better. Not sure why that's changed because were off to a terrible start this year. Seems to me as though the plan for now is to operate like a small market team. Acquire as many assets as possible while giving up as little as possible to do so. IMHO, they've done a bang up job doing that so. By 2015, they should have a pretty good idea of what they have and what they need, and when that time comes, they should have plenty of assets to acquire what they do need. Until then, the big league field will likely be a proving ground for young players and a showcase for guys they intend to trade while they gradually stir in guys that will actually fit in with this plan.

[Sammy Sofa]

Not sure what the problem is. Last year, people were pretty accepting that it would be 2-3 years before things started looking better.

 

Some people were. Plenty weren't.

[SouthSideRyan]

Not sure what the problem is. Last year, people were pretty accepting that it would be 2-3 years before things started looking better.

 

Some people were. Plenty weren't.

 

I think even the biggest supporters of building "the right way" were pretty iffy on being a bad team in 2014.

[Sammy Sofa]

Not sure what the problem is. Last year, people were pretty accepting that it would be 2-3 years before things started looking better.

 

Some people were. Plenty weren't.

 

I think even the biggest supporters of building "the right way" were pretty iffy on being a bad team in 2014.

 

Right; even most of the people accepting that 2012 "had" to be terrible seemed to be talking like there would be clear improvement in 2013 on the path to them actually being competitive in 2014. Anyone saying they were expecting/fine with/welcoming 2-3 years of terrible baseball are either lying or masochists.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Not sure what the problem is. Last year, people were pretty accepting that it would be 2-3 years before things started looking better.

 

Some people were. Plenty weren't.

 

I think even the biggest supporters of building "the right way" were pretty iffy on being a bad team in 2014.

 

Right; even most of the people accepting that 2012 "had" to be terrible seemed to be talking like there would be clear improvement in 2013 on the path to them actually being competitive in 2014. Anyone saying they were expecting/fine with/welcoming 2-3 years of terrible baseball are either lying or masochists.

 

On paper, the 2013 team is a huge improvement. We've had an awful 4 game stretch, but before that the offense was doing well and starting pitching has been great.

 

I'm not saying by any means that 2-3 years of suckage is necessary to win in 2013. Hell, if we had signed Fielder, Cespedes, and Darvish and the farm system could still pretty much be in it's current state, maybe minus the guys we got last summer.

What I am saying is that the organization as a whole seems to be shaping up as per their plan. And I expect some bigger moves to come between this summer and the next 2 offseasons. And if the plan does seem to be falling flat by 2015, I could also see a ridiculous splurge out of desperation.