The 2012 Offseason Thread

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If teams are hesitant(they are) to give up their first rounder for him, why would they do it for ONE year of him? If anything, the team that comes off their pick is going to WANT to have him locked up for a period of time.

 

If your pick is late enough in the first round, you can pretty much lock yourself in to the comp pick only a few spots later next year. Assuming he wouldn't accept a QO.

[Cubswin11]

King Felix gets a 7/175 extension.

[Clem Fandango]

Daaaaaaaaaaaamn

[Guest]

never ever ever give a pitcher a seven year, $25M per deal.

 

ever

[mookie]

never ever ever give a pitcher a seven year, $25M per deal.

 

ever

 

His arm is going to fall off and go boom.

[davell]

Product of already having him. Gotta relent and give him the money.

[Guest]

never ever ever give a pitcher a seven year, $25M per deal.

 

ever

 

His arm is going to fall off and go boom.

They'll have insurance, but it's still a lot o money.

[waffle]

wow...you can buy alot of...well, everything with that kind of money.

 

Spending big long term $$$ on starting pitching I think has been shown to have poor return, overall....

 

Whew.

[imb]

if Felix was a FA right now, you wouldn't give him 7/175? I can understand the Mariners not doing it because of their market limitations, but i couldn't put my name on that check fast enough.

[Cubswin11]

if Felix was a FA right now, you wouldn't give him 7/175? I can understand the Mariners not doing it because of their market limitations, but i couldn't put my name on that check fast enough.

I'd probably do it and technically the Mariners are "only" giving him 5/135ish because they already had him signed for the next 2 years for around $40mm. I definitely would do 5/135ish if he was a FA right now.

[davell]

If we somehow find a way to trade for David Price, we're going to do the same thing the Mariners just did.

[Guest]

if Felix was a FA right now, you wouldn't give him 7/175? I can understand the Mariners not doing it because of their market limitations, but i couldn't put my name on that check fast enough.

No, I wouldn't.

[imb]

particular concerns about hernandez, or just the usual pitchers always get hurt stuff

[Guest]

never ever ever give a pitcher a seven year, $25M per deal.

 

ever

[imb]

:roll: ok talk to you later bye

[Clem Fandango]

Apparently the actual contract is 5 years $135.5 million

[Guest]

Apparently the actual contract is 5 years $135.5 million

That's tacked onto the end of a contact yet to pay him 2/$40M, bringing the total to 7/$175.

[Guest]

Here is the list of top 25 pitchers (by fWAR) from 2006. How many of these guys would you have been happy paying $25M ever since then?

 

1 Johan Santana

2 Brandon Webb

3 Jeremy Bonderman

4 John Lackey

5 John Smoltz

6 Roy Oswalt

7 Roy Halladay

8 Curt Schilling

9 CC Sabathia

10 Aaron Harang

11 Mike Mussina

12 Chris Carpenter

13 Kevin Millwood

14 Erik Bedard

15 Javier Vazquez

16 Chien-Ming Wang

17 Kelvim Escobar

18 Derek Lowe

19 Jake Westbrook

20 Jason Jennings

21 Greg Maddux

22 Aaron Cook

23 Bronson Arroyo

24 Jose Contreras

25 Jason Schmidt

[NewUserName]

I wonder what kind of haul The Mariners would have gotten if they would have been willing to trade him this off-season or at the deadline

[A New Era]

I wonder what kind of haul The Mariners would have gotten if they would have been willing to trade him this off-season or at the deadline

 

I think trading a pitcher like that, is a much better idea than extending him for 7 years. I think it would be much more healthy for the organization long term.

[NewUserName]

yeah that is what I was thinking.

[mookie]

Here is the list of top 25 pitchers (by fWAR) from 2006. How many of these guys would you have been happy paying $25M ever since then?

 

1 Johan Santana

2 Brandon Webb

3 Jeremy Bonderman

4 John Lackey

5 John Smoltz

6 Roy Oswalt

7 Roy Halladay

8 Curt Schilling

9 CC Sabathia

10 Aaron Harang

11 Mike Mussina

12 Chris Carpenter

13 Kevin Millwood

14 Erik Bedard

15 Javier Vazquez

16 Chien-Ming Wang

17 Kelvim Escobar

18 Derek Lowe

19 Jake Westbrook

20 Jason Jennings

21 Greg Maddux

22 Aaron Cook

23 Bronson Arroyo

24 Jose Contreras

25 Jason Schmidt

 

Pretty much just C.C. and Halladay. That's crazy.

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't see how looking at one year's worth of WAR is helpful at all. But yes, always trade the good players for prospects, because those good players start to cost money and they might not perform up their huge contracts.

[Guest]

I don't see how looking at one year's worth of WAR is helpful at all. But yes, always trade the good players for prospects, because those good players start to cost money and they might not perform up their huge contracts.

The idea isn't looking at one year's worth of WAR. The idea is that those were the top 25 pitchers from seven years ago. How many had seven years of production you'd be happy paying 7/$175 for since that time?

 

Pick any year as your starting point and count seven years forward from that one. You'll find damn few pitchers (who are eligible/nearly eligible to sign a FA contract) that will be worth 7/$175. And there's basically no way to pick out the ones who are in advance.

 

In order to be worth considering for that kind of contract, a pitcher probably has to have at least three seasons (preferably more) of elite production already. Then you're projecting seven more years of elite production on top of that. Just how many pitchers over the past 20-30 years can you think of with a ten+ year stretch of dominance? I'll start you off: Clemens, Maddux, Unit.

 

Theo faced this decision when he was with Boston and he made the right call. He could have given Pedro the contract he got from the Mets, but he held off and the Mets got stuck paying for nothing after the first couple years. Then the Mets got burned again with Johan.

 

Let's not be the Mets.

[Banedon]

I don't see how looking at one year's worth of WAR is helpful at all. But yes, always trade the good players for prospects, because those good players start to cost money and they might not perform up their huge contracts.

The idea isn't looking at one year's worth of WAR. The idea is that those were the top 25 pitchers from seven years ago. How many had seven years of production you'd be happy paying 7/$175 for since that time?

 

Pick any year as your starting point and count seven years forward from that one. You'll find damn few pitchers (who are eligible/nearly eligible to sign a FA contract) that will be worth 7/$175. And there's basically no way to pick out the ones who are in advance.

 

In order to be worth considering for that kind of contract, a pitcher probably has to have at least three seasons (preferably more) of elite production already. Then you're projecting seven more years of elite production on top of that. Just how many pitchers over the past 20-30 years can you think of with a ten+ year stretch of dominance? I'll start you off: Clemens, Maddux, Unit.

 

Theo faced this decision when he was with Boston and he made the right call. He could have given Pedro the contract he got from the Mets, but he held off and the Mets got stuck paying for nothing after the first couple years. Then the Mets got burned again with Johan.

 

Let's not be the Mets.

 

Playing devil's advocate, because I agree with you about paying pitchers. But I don't think Felix is getting this deal based on one good year. More like the last 4-5 years. The data is probably harder to come across, but I wonder if the list of the top WAR pitchers from 2004-2006 under say, age 28, would look very different than your list.