NSBB Top 50 Prospects

[toonsterwu]

Uh, don't know where we are at for this, but my 4th guy would be Arodys Vizcaino. I can buy the argument made above that he could be higher, but I think there's enough concern about his health to warrant waiting. At his best, 2 plus pitches and a decent-solid change that flashes a bit better on occasion. His ceiling is better than most of our current upper level prospects, positional and pitchers, and I think he holds a sizable lead on the younger guys in A ball.

 

5th is tough. I was leaning Brett for the longest time, but ... I think I'll go with Paniagua's upside. Yes, the difference between Paniagua/Underwood/Maples might not be much, but I've never been a fan of Maples mechanics, and Underwood seems a bit rawer than Paniagua. To be honest, I don't like Paniagua here, and I think there's a big gap from 4-5 in the system. I was leaning Brett for awhile, but much as I like Brett, and much as I would bet on Brett to be a major leaguer, those are big issues for him to fix. I'm wary of ranking Vogelbach this high because of position and level, but I do love the bat. Just not gutsy enough to throw him up here. Paniagua's reports seem that good, but I could see him go up OR down next year from this spot.

 

6th would be Brett. It's easy to forget that there was once questions about how much power he would have, but now, most people seem to think he'd be fine in a corner role, power-wise. Can he fix his issues? As of now, I'll give him a slight edge on Vogelbach due to how far away Vogelbach is. 7th would be Vogelbach.

[davell]

Sneakypower: Actually that post DESERVED fo be singled out. It was very lazy on my part. The Sheffield and Beltran comps have been used previously and I should have dug deeper. If I piss a post, I'll admit it. And I pissed that one badly.

[Guest]

With #1 being pretty lopsided, would anyone have any objection to me getting the poll for #2 going?

 

I just wish there was a way to submit ranked votes in phpbb. Then there could be a weighted average of the votes in each round to determine the winner. That probably won't be very important until we reach #5, but those later rounds will involve votes for lots of different prospects.

[Guest]

With #1 being pretty lopsided, would anyone have any objection to me getting the poll for #2 going?

 

I just wish there was a way to submit ranked votes in phpbb. Then there could be a weighted average of the votes in each round to determine the winner. That probably won't be very important until we reach #5, but those later rounds will involve votes for lots of different prospects.

 

I've got no problem with it.

[Guest]

I'd say go for it. It should be relatively easy to get through the top 4.

[Guest]

Jorge Soler:

 

Fangraphs

 

Baseball-Reference

 

MiLB

 

First Inning

 

After a long courting process, the 20 year old Soler signed one of the last contracts under the old international free agency (IFA) rules - just before the July 1st deadline. The $30M contract is one of the largest ever awarded to an IFA player.

 

Scouting reports are unanimous in reporting Soler as a physical specimen. Most services list him at 6'3" and 205, but the 225 lbs reported on Fangraphs seems more in line with first hand reports and photos. His raw power is unquestioned, but prior to game action there were differing reports on his other tools.

 

After an adjustment period playing in the Arizona league, Soler was sent to Peoria late in the year. His performance in rookie ball was alright, but he certainly did not stand out in his 61 PA there. On the promising side, he showed more patience than the other top prospects with a 9.8% walk rate. However for a 20 year old with top-level Cuban experience, his 21.3% K rate against rookie league pitching led some observers to question whether there were some holes in his swing.

 

His late season promotion to Peoria helped quell many of those doubts. Although it was only an 88 PA sample, Soler was very impressive against the higher level (and age appropriate) level of competition. There were no holes showing in his swing with a 6.8% strikeout rate and 1-1 K-BB rate. As with the other two of the top trio, that walk rate could stand improvement. But it is hard to complain when coupled with that kind of contact rate and raw power.

 

The power was in evidence, as well. Although he only hit five HR in the states last year, first hand accounts talk of how prodigious the blasts were.

 

Soler's other tools all graded out as better than average, as well. He played solid defense in the OF with a good arm and was also an asset on the bases. In 34 games last season, he stole 12 bases and was caught just once.

 

All in all, Soler had an auspicious debut stateside, especially when one considers the adjustment period most Cuban players have to go through when coming to the US. Soler has as much offensive upside as anyone in the system and should at least begin his career as an asset in the field and on the bases.

[Guest]

btw - everyone else please feel free to add to the scouting reports I'm posting, post additional references or correct the inevitable mistakes.

[Guest]

Soler has an eight vote lead and voting has slowed down quite a bit. Any objections to closing that vote and moving on to #3 (which should be a very quick vote)?

[bukie]

Sure, after we vote 3-4 it'll get a lot more interesting anyway.

[treebird]

Soler has an eight vote lead and voting has slowed down quite a bit. Any objections to closing that vote and moving on to #3 (which should be a very quick vote)?

 

do it

[Guest]

Arodys Vizcaino

 

Fangraphs

 

Baseball-Reference

 

2010 BA Ranking: 69

2011 BA Ranking: 93

2012 BA Ranking: 40

 

Vizcaino came to the Cubs last July in the Paul Maholm trade. Arodys was available in trade due to a long injury history culminating in Tommy John surgery in March 2012. The optimistic view of his injury history is that he had one single injury that he initially tried a non-surgical approach to address. Hopefully he will be back to 100% and full durability now that he has had the surgery. The pessimistic view says that he hasn't pitched more than 114 innings in any season and that when he pitched that many he had to have surgery the following spring.

 

However you view his injury risk, there is no denying his talent. His fastball sits 93-95 and can reach 97 when he puts a bit extra behind it. He also has a very sharp curve ball as a second plus pitch. He has a solid changeup that gives him a third quality pitch. There's no question that he has the arsenal to be a top of the rotation pitcher if he can handle the workload. Failing that, he should be able to dial up his velocity a bit and be a strong back of the pen candidate.

 

His minor league track record is outstanding. He had a 9.35 K/9, 2.27 BB/9 and 4.10 K/BB as his fundamentals. There were no concerns with high home run rates since rookie league. His FIP for his minor league career is a shade under 3.0.

 

In short, Vizcaino is an outstanding pitching prospect. Given the success rate of TJS, it is likely that the Cubs will get great returns from the trade of Maholm. The only thing separating Vizcaino from being one of the top prospects in baseball is the lingering doubt about how he will hold up to a full workload.

[Guest]

In spite of TT's objections, I think #3 is all but decided at this point. I'm going to go ahead and open up the voting for #4, which should also be a slam dunk.

 

At #5, things will get much more interesting.

[Guest]

At 27-3 in favor of Vizcaino, shall I go ahead and open up the balloting on #5?

 

This is where it starts to get interesting. Depending on your view of the pitching in the lower levels, the experienced hitters at the upper levels and, well, Vogelbach, the next 5-10 slots could go in just about any direction.

 

Should I add anyone to the players on the list for #4 as an option for #5?

[rawaction]

At 27-3 in favor of Vizcaino, shall I go ahead and open up the balloting on #5?

 

This is where it starts to get interesting. Depending on your view of the pitching in the lower levels, the experienced hitters at the upper levels and, well, Vogelbach, the next 5-10 slots could go in just about any direction.

 

Should I add anyone to the players on the list for #4 as an option for #5?

 

Candelario's a guy that should be added.

[Guest]

Dan Vogelbach

 

Fangraphs

 

Baseball-Reference

 

MiLB

 

First Inning

 

The Cubs went significantly overslot to sign Vogelbach in the 2011 draft. That move was questioned by many. While Vogelbach set records for HR in prospect showcases (including 500 foot bombs as a high schooler), he will always be in a struggle against his body. Rumors had him at 6'0" and pushing 300 lbs at various points in his amateur career. He was viewed as a pure power hitter that would struggle for average, struggle in the field and struggle on the bases.

 

After a season and a half in the minors, Vogelbach has done everything possible to dispel many of the doubts.

 

First things first: Vogelbach can flat out rake. His huge raw power has easily translated to game power with 17 HR in 283 PA's in 2012. On top of that, he also has shown a great approach at the plate and a solid ability to hit line drives in addition to light towers.

 

He has also worked very hard to get in better shape. While he won't be mistaken for Almora any time soon, he is down to a much more reasonable 250 lbs. It will likely always be a concern for him, but he is taking the right steps to minimize the risk his weight poses.

 

That said, there are still legitimate concerns about how "well rounded" a player he can become. He will always be a liability on the bases. As hard as he works on his defense, he will likely always give back value in the field, as well.

 

The future is bright for Vogelbach. However, like Prince Fielder before him, his best fit is most likely with an American League team as a DH. There's a great chance he'll hit well for someone in the majors. But his best value to the Cubs may be as a trade chip.

[Guest]

At 27-3 in favor of Vizcaino, shall I go ahead and open up the balloting on #5?

 

This is where it starts to get interesting. Depending on your view of the pitching in the lower levels, the experienced hitters at the upper levels and, well, Vogelbach, the next 5-10 slots could go in just about any direction.

 

Should I add anyone to the players on the list for #4 as an option for #5?

 

Candelario's a guy that should be added.

And Fujikawa, too, I suppose.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't see why you have to add Fujikawa. Rookie eligibility or not, he's not a prospect.

[pitchcs]

I don't see why you have to add Fujikawa. Rookie eligibility or not, he's not a prospect.

[Guest]

I don't see why you have to add Fujikawa. Rookie eligibility or not, he's not a prospect.

We don't have to do anything except grow old and die!

 

But I'm considering adding him because he'll be considered a prospect by every other service until he plays in the majors.

[Guest]

I hadn't yet considered where I would rate Fujikawa but he'd definitely be in my top 10.

[Vanilla Ice]

At 27-3 in favor of Vizcaino, shall I go ahead and open up the balloting on #5?

 

This is where it starts to get interesting. Depending on your view of the pitching in the lower levels, the experienced hitters at the upper levels and, well, Vogelbach, the next 5-10 slots could go in just about any direction.

 

Should I add anyone to the players on the list for #4 as an option for #5?

 

Candelario's a guy that should be added.

I would definitely agree.

[Guest]

So Candelario and Fujikawa. Anyone else?

[Rob]

toonster is gonna need Hernandez on before too long.

[Guest]

I'd add Marco Hernandez if you have Amaya and Candelario up there.

 

ETA:

toonster is gonna need Hernandez on before too long.

 

Rob beat me.

[Rob]

Rob beat me.

 

Don't tell my parole officer.