BA, BP, etc. Cubs Top Prospects List

[Guest]

Might they shop Castro in another year?

 

Not with his contract.

 

I doubt Baez will be better than Castro defensively when he arrives at the big leagues, because of how much bigger he'll be. Baez will look great at 3B.

 

Castro's listed at 6'0 190 lbs and Baez is listed at 6'1 205 lbs. Are you expecting Baez to grow or add weight? Otherwise, I don't think an inch and 15 pounds is that much of a difference.

 

I could see Baez easily being 215-220 ish and growing another inch. He looks "long" for 6'1" as it is.

Don't know about the increase in height but I do expect Baez to put on some more weight.

 

I also think people are slightly overrating Baez SS ability when compared to Castro's just because Baez got some good reviews this past season.

[Guest]

I also suspect they'll give Reed a shot at starting/piggyback.

 

They've got some different ideas than Fleita, I think, and very much want some power rotation arms. If they thought his control and potential for a 3-pitch arsenal was too limited to justify a shot at rotation, I doubt they'd mention him as a dark-horse breakout candidate.

 

That would be interesting. Definitely heard some good reports on him last season at Peoria (he was the Chiefs' hardest thrower and I think he hit 100). There aren't too many openings for Daytona's rotation, but with Peralta currently gone, there is a vacancy.

[davell]

If its been mentioned, I've glossed over it, but Bruce made it sound as if Soler will start out in Daytona, not Kane County.

[KingCubsFan]

If its been mentioned, I've glossed over it, but Bruce made it sound as if Soler will start out in Daytona, not Kane County.

Hopefully him and Baez will both reach Tennessee this year.

[craig]

I also suspect they'll give Reed a shot at starting/piggyback. ....

 

That would be interesting. Definitely heard some good reports on him last season at Peoria (he was the Chiefs' hardest thrower and I think he hit 100). There aren't too many openings for Daytona's rotation, but with Peralta currently gone, there is a vacancy.

 

Reed will be 21 all year, with only 159 pro innings, and few amateur innings before that. I wouldn't be surprised to see him redo A-. If you want a guy to practice throwing more of his 2nd and 3rd pitches, pitches he'll need in the majors, starting him at a lower level might make sense. But who knows. I also don't think opportunity is much of an issue. With piggy-backing, anybody with any rotation possibilities can get a shot.

 

At convention, Hyde talked about rotation versus relief. I'm simplifying, but basically I inferred relief being for non-prospects in lower minors, and even in the upper levels it's for guys lacking in control and/or arsenal. Even a future-reliever he wanted starting for innings early on. That's kinda why I figured that if they mention him as a darkhorse, to possibly emerge as good, then they probably haven't written him off to the failed prospect bin yet, so they'll probably want him piggy-backing or something.

[Cubswin11]

If its been mentioned, I've glossed over it, but Bruce made it sound as if Soler will start out in Daytona, not Kane County.

Hopefully him and Baez will both reach Tennessee this year.

If neither of them make it, even if it's just for like a monthish at the end of the year, something will have gone wrong(either injuries and/or poor performance/development). They seem to be pushing guys both pretty hard.

 

It's going to suck having them in Daytona and facing the inevitable rain outs/delays happening on a weekly basis.

[Guest]

If its been mentioned, I've glossed over it, but Bruce made it sound as if Soler will start out in Daytona, not Kane County.

Hopefully him and Baez will both reach Tennessee this year.

If neither of them make it, even if it's just for like a monthish at the end of the year, something will have gone wrong(either injuries and/or poor performance/development). They seem to be pushing guys both pretty hard.

 

It's going to suck having them in Daytona and facing the inevitable rain outs/delays happening on a weekly basis.

 

If you're expecting them in AA for a month or more, Daytona's rain delays won't be as big an issue. August is easily the worst month in Florida.

[Guest]

I also suspect they'll give Reed a shot at starting/piggyback. ....

 

That would be interesting. Definitely heard some good reports on him last season at Peoria (he was the Chiefs' hardest thrower and I think he hit 100). There aren't too many openings for Daytona's rotation, but with Peralta currently gone, there is a vacancy.

 

Reed will be 21 all year, with only 159 pro innings, and few amateur innings before that. I wouldn't be surprised to see him redo A-. If you want a guy to practice throwing more of his 2nd and 3rd pitches, pitches he'll need in the majors, starting him at a lower level might make sense. But who knows. I also don't think opportunity is much of an issue. With piggy-backing, anybody with any rotation possibilities can get a shot.

 

At convention, Hyde talked about rotation versus relief. I'm simplifying, but basically I inferred relief being for non-prospects in lower minors, and even in the upper levels it's for guys lacking in control and/or arsenal. Even a future-reliever he wanted starting for innings early on. That's kinda why I figured that if they mention him as a darkhorse, to possibly emerge as good, then they probably haven't written him off to the failed prospect bin yet, so they'll probably want him piggy-backing or something.

 

Actually, to push him to throw 3 pitches, he might have to go to a higher level (starters can get by throwing 2 pitches a lot more easily at the lower levels).

 

That said, you're definitely right. He's very raw, only had 61 IP at Peoria last season and probably could use more time in the MWL if he is going to start.

[toonsterwu]

I also suspect they'll give Reed a shot at starting/piggyback.

 

They've got some different ideas than Fleita, I think, and very much want some power rotation arms. If they thought his control and potential for a 3-pitch arsenal was too limited to justify a shot at rotation, I doubt they'd mention him as a dark-horse breakout candidate.

 

To be fair to Fleita, it's not like he didn't want power rotation arms. He did give a rotation look to Dan McDaniel, amongst others, and McDaniel showed an interesting power arm in Boise (his stuff "dropped", but that's a separate issue). Some arms just didn't pan out for Fleita, and there were some poor picks.

 

___

 

As for Reed, yeah, I can see them giving him a rotation/piggyback look and keeping him at Peoria for another season, but I really wonder if, due to his mechanics, he's simply better off being fast-tracked as a power pen arm. That will be an interesting decision to follow this spring.

[craig]

..Actually, to push him to throw 3 pitches, he might have to go to a higher level (starters can get by throwing 2 pitches a lot more easily at the lower levels)....

 

True. I think that's why the promotion rate needs to be individualized, especially in past. Some guys need to be pushed to a failure league so that they realize "doing what got me here" isn't going to work. Others need to stay at a low enough level to have success even while trying something new.

 

With the recording equipment that's now available, every pitch thrown or see or swung at, at least for home games, is now recorded. So I think that quantification will be possible, and as a result I think the new regime may manage assignments and promotions better. Each player has his own manual with with detailed targets in all kinds of detailed areas. For hitters, walk rates, take rates, take rates on different pitches in the count, selectivity rates for swinging at bad balls, etc., I believe all of those are now specified and recorded among other things.

 

If the records show that Reed is throwing 75% fastballs at Peoria, 23% sliders, and only 2% changes, and his expectation is set at 60%/25%/15%, I assume there will be a record and he will have to answer why. If they are now able to quantify all this kind of stuff, and if promotion requires compliance, and if non-compliance results in a bad grade on your bi-weekly report, won't players be pretty inclined try to comply?

[craig]

If its been mentioned, I've glossed over it, but Bruce made it sound as if Soler will start out in Daytona, not Kane County.

 

Thanks, Dave. That's pretty interesting, and pretty aggressive. If he does start there, I hope he justifies doing so and has good success there.

[craig]

....To be fair to Fleita, it's not like he didn't want power rotation arms. ....As for Reed, yeah, I can see them giving him a rotation/piggyback look and keeping him at Peoria for another season, but I really wonder if, due to his mechanics, he's simply better off being fast-tracked as a power pen arm. That will be an interesting decision to follow this spring.

 

Absolutely, Fleita wanted power rotation arms too, everybody does.

 

But I got the impression that Hyde wasn't as oriented towards "fast-tracked as a power pen arm". He didn't sound as "fast-track"y.

 

Maybe that's just me hoping. If a guy can't pitch rotation because he's got inconsistent mechanics and can't throw strikes, it's not like relievers with inconsistent mechanics, poor command, and the inability to throw strikes are hot commodities either. So consistent mechanics, control, and strikes are developmental priorities for future relievers, just as they are for rotation. And I got the sense that Hyde believes that's best accomplished by innings and time. So perhaps a two 115-inning seasons as a starter in A- and A+, followed by a 65 inning season as a reliever in AA, following by a 40-inning half-season at Iowa and a midseason callup, isn't "fast-track" but is developmentally effective?

 

I wonder how the decision-making was made last year. Zych was fast-tracked as a reliever. Was that McLeod's call? Or Fleita's, since Fleita was still the farm boss? Or were both in sync on that?

[davell]

Keith Law has us FIFTH in his minor league org rankings!

[Clem Fandango]

Keith Law has us FIFTH in his minor league org rankings!

 

Didn't have a whole lot to say. His analysis wasn't very in depth for any of the organizations...

 

The Cubs' rebuilding process isn't much further along than the Twins' or the Astros' in terms of time, but they spent extravagantly in the international market before the new CBA's restrictions went into effect last summer, landing the Cuban toolshed Jorge Soler (and the Cuban flop Gerardo Concepcion, but we're not going to talk about him), then later using their international pool money on the Dominican pitcher with an electric arm currently known as Juan Carlos Paniagua, who has gone through more names than the thief known as Parker. The Cubs also scored big in last year's draft, addressing the system's lack of starting pitching candidates while also bulking up its depth in outfield prospects.

[Cubswin11]

Keith Law has us FIFTH in his minor league org rankings!

 

Didn't have a whole lot to say. His analysis wasn't very in depth for any of the organizations...

 

The Cubs' rebuilding process isn't much further along than the Twins' or the Astros' in terms of time, but they spent extravagantly in the international market before the new CBA's restrictions went into effect last summer, landing the Cuban toolshed Jorge Soler(and the Cuban flop Gerardo Concepcion, but we're not going to talk about him), then later using their international pool money on the Dominican pitcher with an electric arm currently known as Juan Carlos Paniagua, who has gone through more names than the thief known as Parker. The Cubs also scored big in last year's draft, addressing the system's lack of starting pitching candidates while also bulking up its depth in outfield prospects.

 

Looks like he will have more of a write up on the organization later this week, I assume by AL/NL top tens he means systems and not players. As he usually writes up commentary on all of the top 100 guys, I think. Should be interesting to see how many Cubs he has in his top 100, 5 is higher than anyone else has ranked our system so I wouldn't be surprised if he has an extra guy or two in his top 100 compared to other rankings (think he definitely will have Vizcaino in his top 100 possibly Paniagua with those statements).

 

 

Also, is the Cuban Toolshed really something Soler is being called by people? I kind of like it.

 

@Klaw: Top 100 tomorrow. AL top tens with commentary Weds. NL Thurs. RT @mblecks: What's the article schedule the rest of the week? #baseballseason

[Guest]

Toonster got his question answered by Jim Callis (I assume that's toonster):

 

I just had the opportunity to go through your Cubs Top 30 list in the Prospect Handbook, and in large part, I find myself in agreement in a lot of areas. I wanted to ask about third baseman Josh Vitters ranking at No. 25. I'm no Vitters fan by any means, but you note that some scouts project him as a possible .275/20-homer type with adequate defense at third base. If that .275 with 20 homers is a median projection, considering that he's 23 and has the potential for improvement, it seems hard to buy that the Cubs have 24 prospects who are better. If .275 with 20 homers is viewed more as a peak, I guess could understand ranking him lower. I'm not aghast at the ranking—I'd flip him with righthander Paul Blackburn at No. 16—but what was the thought process?

 

T.J. Wu

Frederick, Md.

I've had to write up and rank Vitters as part of my Cubs Top 30 work in the last six Handbooks, and he's a hard prospect to figure out. He was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2007 draft on merit and he had a solid 2012 season in Triple-A at age 22, but he also has been inconsistent in between.

 

When I wrote, "There still are scouts inside and outside the organization who feel comfortable projecting him as a .275 hitter with 20 homers annually," I also followed up by noting that other scouts think he gets himself out because he lacks selectivity and intensity. That .275 with 20 homers is more a best-case scenario, and it's hard to reconcile that with the guy who hit .121/.193/.202 with 33 strikeouts in his first 99 big league at-bats. I can see the .275 but it probably would come with a .315 on-base percentage, and I'd bet on 15 homers more than 20.

 

I also don't see Vitters as someone capable of playing third base on a regular basis in the majors. His speed and range are deficient, his throws are erratic and the game seemed to fast for him at the hot corner when he was with the Cubs. He fits better at first base or maybe left field, which would put a lot more pressure on his bat.

 

Could Vitters be a regular at third base and provide solid offense and adequate defense? Yes, that's possible. That's also his absolute upside, and he looks like more of a platoon player than a regular and more of a first baseman than a third baseman. He's more major league-ready than most of the 24 players I ranked ahead of him on our Cubs Top 30, but I opted to put him behind players with better ceilings.

[toonsterwu]

Yeah that was me. I thought it was a fairly interesting discussion we were having here, and was curious about his reasonings for where he placed Vitters (although as usual, BA chopped out some parts of my question ... I think ... which is their right).

 

So I didn't misread the initial tone of the statement ... that the .275/20 is more of a peak. As per my above comments from a page or two ago, I'm in agreement with how Callis feels about Vitters' power - 15 HR seems a bit more realistic to project than 20, although 20 isn't so far out there.

 

Anyhow, I'm glad to see an answer, and thanks for posting this, as I don't check BA's website all that consistently.

[Cubswin11]

Law's top 100 is out today, think most were aware, when it's out can someone please post his top 100 and then the write ups he has on the Cubs who make it, thanks!

[CarolinaCubFan]

Rank Name Pos Team Ht Wt

1 Jurickson Profar SS TEX 5-11 165

2 Oscar Taveras OF STL 6-2 180

3 Dylan Bundy RHP BAL 6-1 195

4 Wil Myers OF TB 6-3 190

5 Xander Bogaerts SS BOS 6-3 175

6 Christian Yelich OF MIA 6-4 189

7 Francisco Lindor SS CLE 5-11 175

8 Gerrit Cole RHP PIT 6-4 215

9 Taijuan Walker RHP SEA 6-4 195

10 Addison Russell SS OAK 6-0 185

11 Miguel Sano 3B MIN 6-3 195

12 Tyler Skaggs LHP ARI 6-4 195

13 Zack Wheeler RHP NYM 6-3 180

14 Travis d'Arnaud C NYM 6-2 195

15 Mike Zunino C SEA 6-2 220

16 Jose Fernandez RHP MIA 6-2 220

17 Anthony Rendon 3B WAS 5-11 170

18 Gary Sanchez C NYY 6-2 195

19 Aaron Sanchez RHP TOR 6-4 190

20 Jameson Taillon RHP PIT 6-6 225

21 Shelby Miller RHP STL 6-3 195

22 Byron Buxton CF MIN 6-1 188

23 Kaleb Cowart 3B LAA 6-3 190

24 Carlos Correa SS HOU 6-4 190

25 Trevor Bauer RHP CLE 6-1 185

26 Kevin Gausman RHP BAL 6-4 185

27 Kyle Zimmer RHP KC 6-3 215

28 Julio Teheran RHP ATL 6-2 150

29 Archie Bradley RHP ARI 6-4 225

30 Billy Hamilton CF CIN 6-1 160

31 Javier Baez SS CHC 6-1 205

32 Jonathan Singleton 1B HOU 6-2 215

33 Albert Almora OF CHC 6-1 170

34 Alen Hanson SS PIT 5-11 152

35 Mason Williams OF NYY 6-0 150

36 Austin Hedges C SD 6-1 190

37 David Dahl OF COL 6-2 185

38 Nick Castellanos 3B/RF DET 6-4 210

39 Carlos Martinez RHP STL 6-0 165

40 Jackie Bradley Jr. CF BOS 5-10 180

41 Kyle Gibson RHP MIN 6-6 210

42 Jorge Soler OF CHC 6-3 205

43 George Springer CF HOU 6-4 205

44 Brian Goodwin CF WAS 6-0 190

45 Bubba Starling OF KC 6-4 180

46 Corey Seager SS LAD 6-3 195

47 Taylor Guerrieri RHP TB 6-3 195

48 Robert Stephenson RHP CIN 6-2 190

49 Aaron Hicks CF MIN 6-2 185

50 Jonathan Schoop SS BAL 6-1 187

51 Max Fried LHP SD 6-4 185

52 Tyler Austin OF NYY 6-2 200

53 Chris Archer RHP TB 6-3 180

54 Rymer Liriano OF SD 6-0 211

55 Gregory Polanco CF PIT 6-4 170

56 Dorssys Paulino SS CLE 6-0 175

57 Slade Heathcott CF NYY 6-1 190

58 Trevor Rosenthal RHP STL 6-2 190

59 Oswaldo Arcia OF MIN 6-0 210

60 Casey Kelly RHP SD 6-3 195

61 Alex Meyer RHP MIN 6-7 205

62 Justin Nicolino LHP MIA 6-3 160

63 Allen Webster RHP BOS 6-3 185

64 Arodys Vizcaino RHP CHC 6-0 189

65 Eddie Rosario 2B/CF MIN 6-0 170

66 Danny Hultzen LHP SEA 6-3 200

67 Zach Lee RHP LAD 6-4 190

68 Jake Odorizzi RHP TB 6-2 175

69 Nick Franklin SS SEA 6-1 170

70 Jedd Gyorko 3B SD 5-10 195

71 Mike Olt 3B TEX 6-2 215

72 Daniel Corcino RHP CIN 5-11 165

73 Wily Peralta RHP MIL 6-2 225

74 Courtney Hawkins OF CWS 6-3 220

75 Matt Davidson 3B ARI 6-3 225

76 Kyle Crick RHP SF 6-4 220

77 Lucas Giolito RHP WAS 6-6 225

78 Hak-Ju Lee SS TB 6-2 170

79 Matt Barnes RHP BOS 6-4 205

80 Clayton Blackburn RHP SF 6-3 220

81 Alex Colome RHP TB 6-2 185

82 Jake Marisnick CF MIA 6-4 200

83 Delino DeShields Jr. 2B HOU 5-9 188

84 Luis Heredia RHP PIT 6-6 205

85 Trevor Story SS COL 6-1 175

86 Jarred Cosart RHP HOU 6-3 180

87 Roberto Osuna RHP TOR 6-2 230

88 Joe Ross RHP SD 6-3 185

89 A.J. Cole RHP WAS 6-4 180

90 Cody Buckel RHP TEX 6-0 170

91 Adam Eaton CF ARI 6-2 190

92 Adam Morgan RHP PHI 6-1 195

93 Martin Perez LHP TEX 6-0 178

94 J.R. Graham RHP ATL 6-0 185

95 Jesse Biddle LHP PHI 6-4 225

96 Kolten Wong 2B STL 5-9 180

97 Noah Syndergaard RHP NYM 6-5 200

98 Tony Cingrani LHP CIN 6-4 200

99 Nathan Karns RHP WAS 6-5 230

100 Eduardo Rodriguez RHP BAL 6-2 175

[Cubswin11]

Thanks!

[Guest]

According to Brett, Jeimer Candelario made Law's top 110.

 

http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/02/05/the-cubs-have-5-of-the-top-110-prospects-in-baseball-according-to-keith-law/

[Cubswin11]

According to Brett, Jeimer Candelario made Law's top 110.

 

http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/02/05/the-cubs-have-5-of-the-top-110-prospects-in-baseball-according-to-keith-law/

Wow, that's interesting to hear. He has to be the highest on Candelario of the main prospect guys. Not too surprised he has Vizcaino in the top 100 he has always liked him and is definitely in the camp that TJS isn't that big of a deal anymore to come back from.

[jersey cubs fan]

It's cool to have numerous guys on the list, but a bummer to have nobody higher than 31.

[Rob]

Yeah that was me. I thought it was a fairly interesting discussion we were having here, and was curious about his reasonings for where he placed Vitters (although as usual, BA chopped out some parts of my question ... I think ... which is their right).

 

So I didn't misread the initial tone of the statement ... that the .275/20 is more of a peak. As per my above comments from a page or two ago, I'm in agreement with how Callis feels about Vitters' power - 15 HR seems a bit more realistic to project than 20, although 20 isn't so far out there.

 

Anyhow, I'm glad to see an answer, and thanks for posting this, as I don't check BA's website all that consistently.

 

Yeah, it's an interesting topic.

 

If you give Vitters a full 650 PA projection for that peak, along with his Iowa strikeout and walk rates, you'd be looking at a .308 BABIP to post a .275 average with 20 HR. That's a bit lower BABIP than I tend to think of when looking at "peak", but everything else in the projection is optimistic... so yeah, all in all I'd say that's probably a fair peak projection.

[KingCubsFan]

Law really has a thing for good defensive shortstops. Lindor at 7 this year, following Hak-Ju Lee last year.