strasburg's innings limit

[apete6]

looking at prior's pitch counts from late 2003 makes me want to punch dusty baker in the throat.

 

here's how many pitches he threw in each of his starts after the marcus giles start:

 

79

116

118

100

116

131

122

109

124

131

133

 

playoffs:

133

116

119

 

 

take out that first start, and he threw 121.5 pitches per start in his age 22 season after suffering a shoulder injury. gee wonder why his career path to cooperstown went off the rails.

 

While the PC's are bad enough, even more frustrating to me was that Dusty left him in there to achieve some of those super high pitch counts in games that were well in hand. I want to say a couple of those 130+ games were games Dusty was trying to let Prior get a complete game shut out, or finish off an inning he got himself in trouble with.

 

ETA: Perfect example was the 131 PC start against St. Louis with a 7-0 lead after 6 innings. Dusty leaves him in there for 8 innings. Next start, 5-1 lead after 5, Dusty takes him out after 7 with 129 pitches thrown. Dumbass!

 

That's why it's not apples to apples and innings aren't all created equal. If they limit him on pitches, the innings number could be pushed.

 

Also, it has to kill any pro athlete to basically sit down and watch his team try and win a title in what could be their only chance. I'm pretty damn sure numerous teams thought they were "going to be competitive for a long time" and "had a ton of young talent" and then ended up never making it back. There's no guarantee that if the Cubs shut down Prior in September of 2003 that he would have come back and dominated again in 04 or 05. They could have, however, certainly treated him a lot more cautiously. But, if he had gotten 5 more outs vs. Florida and they could have won the WS after that, I'm sorry, but I'd sacrifice his arm for that.

[apete6]

Poll:

 

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=61351

[Sammy Sofa]

Wait, why talk about him getting the last 5 outs? Part of what was so stupid about what happened was that he was, yet again, still pitching in a game he didn't need to still be pitching in.

[jersey cubs fan]

There's no guarantee that if the Cubs shut down Prior in September of 2003 that he would have come back and dominated again in 04 or 05. They could have, however, certainly treated him a lot more cautiously. But, if he had gotten 5 more outs vs. Florida and they could have won the WS after that, I'm sorry, but I'd sacrifice his arm for that.

 

It is pretty ridiculous to say "there's no guarantee" shutting him down would help and then make a pointless statement about how if he got the last 5 outs you'd sacrifice his arms for that.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Tim mentioned there are a "lot" of studies out there that apparently would argue in favor of being cautious with Strasburg; maybe he can point some of them out.

At a customer site this week, so I'll be limited in my time for research. I remember seeing things on this quite a few years back, though. Heck, some of the mainstream guys even got hold of it.

 

I had this argument the awhile back with someone, and when he asked me to produce the studies, it turned out... there weren't really any that I could find. A lot of "common knowledge" in stathead circles on pitcher abuse is based on a debunked Verducci column.

[Guest]

The Verducci effect would be if Strasburg had reached a career high in IP last year with like 20 starts and 125 IP. This is the Verducci effect plus being the first season after his elbow was put back together.

[Splendid Splinter]

looking at prior's pitch counts from late 2003 makes me want to punch dusty baker in the throat.

 

here's how many pitches he threw in each of his starts after the marcus giles start:

 

79

116

118

100

116

131

122

109

124

131

133

 

playoffs:

133

116

119

 

 

take out that first start, and he threw 121.5 pitches per start in his age 22 season after suffering a shoulder injury. gee wonder why his career path to cooperstown went off the rails.

 

While the PC's are bad enough, even more frustrating to me was that Dusty left him in there to achieve some of those super high pitch counts in games that were well in hand. I want to say a couple of those 130+ games were games Dusty was trying to let Prior get a complete game shut out, or finish off an inning he got himself in trouble with.

 

ETA: Perfect example was the 131 PC start against St. Louis with a 7-0 lead after 6 innings. Dusty leaves him in there for 8 innings. Next start, 5-1 lead after 5, Dusty takes him out after 7 with 129 pitches thrown. Dumbass!

 

That's why it's not apples to apples and innings aren't all created equal. If they limit him on pitches, the innings number could be pushed.

 

Also, it has to kill any pro athlete to basically sit down and watch his team try and win a title in what could be their only chance. I'm pretty damn sure numerous teams thought they were "going to be competitive for a long time" and "had a ton of young talent" and then ended up never making it back. There's no guarantee that if the Cubs shut down Prior in September of 2003 that he would have come back and dominated again in 04 or 05. They could have, however, certainly treated him a lot more cautiously. But, if he had gotten 5 more outs vs. Florida and they could have won the WS after that, I'm sorry, but I'd sacrifice his arm for that.

 

 

I want to talk about the two things that are in bold.

 

The first one about the pitch count. Granted that Baker ran Prior into the ground with that and several of those starts Baker left him in too long. There were other factors as well. Here's the difference between Prior and Strasburg. Strasburg has like 40 starts in his career so far and only 2 of those starts were more than 110 pitches and 7 more from 100-109 pitches (all 9 starts are from this year). Nats are already limiting Strasburg in BOTH pitch counts and innings so far in his career. It's a great way to go with a guy like Strasburg IMO. They want to make sure they have him for multiple seasons. Could he get hurt again? Of course, but the reason will be because of something Strasburg did (or his mechanics) or a fluke thing happened (collison with someone/liner to head or elbow/etc.) and not because Nats were reckless with him.

 

The 2nd part... Why would Cubs need to shut down Prior in Sept. of '03??? I'm not sure where you're going with that. Prior pitched like 170 innings in 2002 (minors and MLB) and went 210 (plus 23 in playoffs) in 2003. He also didn't have any injuries before 2003 and was regarded to have great mechanics at the time IIRC. Yes, they should've been more cautious with him, but the problem was having Baylor (check out his 2002 game logs) and Baker as his managers. I don't think it was how many innings he pitched in 2003. It was the pitch counts in a lot of the games in his career and leaving him in too long when they could've went to the bullpen. Had they been more cautious about that part, they probably would've cut 10-20 innings easily in the 2003 season and also a buttload of pitches that he didn't even need to throw. Now do I think it would've saved his career? No, but I think it would've extended by another year or possibly two before the injuries. He was bound to have shoulder/arm injuries eventually with his mechanics.

 

I'm not sure about the whole "if he had gotten 5 more outs vs. Florida and they could have won the WS after that, I'm sorry, but I'd sacrifice his arm for that" deal when he really shouldn't been out there in the 8th in the first place. Why would you want him to pitch a complete game anyway? Of course you would sacrifice his arm to be in the WS and have a chance to win. You already know what happened afterwards and how messed up his career is to this point. Plus it has no effect on your life (besides being a fan of the Cubs and the emotions of getting into the WS). It's stupid and pointless as pretty much everyone else would say the same thing now (except for probably Prior and his family).

[WrigleyField 22]

Analogy time:

 

You have been broke for a long time. You finally get a okay job, and then you come into a small bit of money; enough to get you through 3 months of bills, and buy you enough time to get back on your feet and after several months, stabalize your broke-ness and build toward a long term future of never having to worry about being broke and moving back into your mom's basement again.

 

However...you could take that money and go to Vegas. Bet it all on black (always bet on black). If you win, you're set up for far longer, you can buy a new car or whatever and be immediately on your feet again.

 

Which of these ideas make more sense?

Well we have tons of statistical evidence that shows what a terrible decision gambling all your savings is. That's not the case with IP.

 

I am totally in favor of caution, but IP is just one aspect to consider. To use only that and throw everything thing else out seems stupid.

 

And as stated, even if you take the 30IP as gospel, you've already screwed up.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

The point is that, in the absence of absolute certainty, you err on the side of what's most likely to give you the best outcome.

Well I think people are questioning whats most likely to give you the best outcome.

 

I know that the Nationals have put a lot more thought on it than I have, so I'll defer to their decision over my opinion, but I'm not completely convinced it isn't just some arbitrary number that will have no effect on future injuries.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Sammy Sofa]

looking at prior's pitch counts from late 2003 makes me want to punch dusty baker in the throat.

 

here's how many pitches he threw in each of his starts after the marcus giles start:

 

79

116

118

100

116

131

122

109

124

131

133

 

playoffs:

133

116

119

 

 

take out that first start, and he threw 121.5 pitches per start in his age 22 season after suffering a shoulder injury. gee wonder why his career path to cooperstown went off the rails.

 

While the PC's are bad enough, even more frustrating to me was that Dusty left him in there to achieve some of those super high pitch counts in games that were well in hand. I want to say a couple of those 130+ games were games Dusty was trying to let Prior get a complete game shut out, or finish off an inning he got himself in trouble with.

 

ETA: Perfect example was the 131 PC start against St. Louis with a 7-0 lead after 6 innings. Dusty leaves him in there for 8 innings. Next start, 5-1 lead after 5, Dusty takes him out after 7 with 129 pitches thrown. Dumbass!

 

That's why it's not apples to apples and innings aren't all created equal. If they limit him on pitches, the innings number could be pushed.

 

Also, it has to kill any pro athlete to basically sit down and watch his team try and win a title in what could be their only chance. I'm pretty damn sure numerous teams thought they were "going to be competitive for a long time" and "had a ton of young talent" and then ended up never making it back. There's no guarantee that if the Cubs shut down Prior in September of 2003 that he would have come back and dominated again in 04 or 05. They could have, however, certainly treated him a lot more cautiously. But, if he had gotten 5 more outs vs. Florida and they could have won the WS after that, I'm sorry, but I'd sacrifice his arm for that.

 

 

I want to talk about the two things that are in bold.

 

The first one about the pitch count. Granted that Baker ran Prior into the ground with that and several of those starts Baker left him in too long. There were other factors as well. Here's the difference between Prior and Strasburg. Strasburg has like 40 starts in his career so far and only 2 of those starts were more than 110 pitches and 7 more from 100-109 pitches (all 9 starts are from this year). Nats are already limiting Strasburg in BOTH pitch counts and innings so far in his career. It's a great way to go with a guy like Strasburg IMO. They want to make sure they have him for multiple seasons. Could he get hurt again? Of course, but the reason will be because of something Strasburg did (or his mechanics) or a fluke thing happened (collison with someone/liner to head or elbow/etc.) and not because Nats were reckless with him.

 

The 2nd part... Why would Cubs need to shut down Prior in Sept. of '03??? I'm not sure where you're going with that. Prior pitched like 170 innings in 2002 (minors and MLB) and went 210 (plus 23 in playoffs) in 2003. He also didn't have any injuries before 2003 and was regarded to have great mechanics at the time IIRC. Yes, they should've been more cautious with him, but the problem was having Baylor (check out his 2002 game logs) and Baker as his managers. I don't think it was how many innings he pitched in 2003. It was the pitch counts in a lot of the games in his career and leaving him in too long when they could've went to the bullpen. Had they been more cautious about that part, they probably would've cut 10-20 innings easily in the 2003 season and also a buttload of pitches that he didn't even need to throw. Now do I think it would've saved his career? No, but I think it would've extended by another year or possibly two before the injuries. He was bound to have shoulder/arm injuries eventually with his mechanics.

 

I'm not sure about the whole "if he had gotten 5 more outs vs. Florida and they could have won the WS after that, I'm sorry, but I'd sacrifice his arm for that" deal when he really shouldn't been out there in the 8th in the first place. Why would you want him to pitch a complete game anyway? Of course you would sacrifice his arm to be in the WS and have a chance to win. You already know what happened afterwards and how messed up his career is to this point. Plus it has no effect on your life (besides being a fan of the Cubs and the emotions of getting into the WS). It's stupid and pointless as pretty much everyone else would say the same thing now (except for probably Prior and his family).

 

Well said.

[Cubswin11]

Spot on Splendid, but I think the argument to shut him down in Sept. 03' was due to his collision with Giles. Or was that 04'?

[SouthSideRyan]

The Giles collission was in '03, but it happened on July 11th. His coming back out and pitching 3 more innings in that game utter lunacy.

[Splendid Splinter]

The Giles collission was in '03, but it happened on July 11th. His coming back out and pitching 3 more innings in that game utter lunacy.

 

That's the part that really bugs me. He should've be taken out right away then. He was out for almost a month (came back August 5th) and was lights out for the rest of the season (11 starts: 82.2 IP/95 K/1.52 ERA/1.00 WHIP). That's during the crazy pitch counts as well.

 

If you could go back and look at every start Prior made that season, you could probably cut 20 innings that he didn't need to pitch, but Baker kept him out anyway. I know Kerry Wood was basically damaged goods by this time, but Baker didn't help whatsoever. His pitch count is just as bad, if not worse when you take in account of his injuries by that time of his career. Zambrano wasn't as bad as those 2 on pitch counts, but it was still horrible for a 22 year old who went from 117 IP in 2002 (minors and MLB) to 230.2 IP in 2003. That's an insane jump of IPs. I don't know how Z's arm didn't fall off.

 

 

Looking back on 2003... it was extremely fun to watch (I was 18/19 during that season), but it's depressing just how horrible/reckless the managing and organization was.

[jersey cubs fan]

I know Kerry Wood was basically damaged goods by this time, but Baker didn't help whatsoever. His pitch count is just as bad, if not worse when you take in account of his injuries by that time of his career.

 

A 130 pitch complete game in horribly uncomfortable Florida for no other reason than "hey, let's act tough and get a complete game" when the guy's arm was already questionable.

 

He threw 140 earlier that season. He threw 120+ on 13 freaking occasions that year, including 5 of the last 6 (with the low workload game being 114). Oh wait, and he struggled in his final outing that season when his innings total approached 240 for the season.

 

But don't you dare blame Dusty.

 

 

Ignorant morons.

[KingCubsFan]

I know Kerry Wood was basically damaged goods by this time, but Baker didn't help whatsoever. His pitch count is just as bad, if not worse when you take in account of his injuries by that time of his career.

 

A 130 pitch complete game in horribly uncomfortable Florida for no other reason than "hey, let's act tough and get a complete game" when the guy's arm was already questionable.

 

He threw 140 earlier that season. He threw 120+ on 13 freaking occasions that year, including 5 of the last 6 (with the low workload game being 114). Oh wait, and he struggled in his final outing that season when his innings total approached 240 for the season.

 

But don't you dare blame Dusty.

 

 

Ignorant morons.

It was the unnecessary pitch counts in the beginning of the season for them that always bothered me the most. By the playoffs, Zambrano was completely worthless and Wood hit the wall in the NLCS.

[Guest]

Rany Jazayerli had a story today on why he thinks the Nationals shutting down Strasburg doesn't really help minimize injury risk too much: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8369941/history-shows-washington-nationals-shut-stephen-strasburg-too-soon

 

The historic references to Prior and Wood were just depressing.

 

The third pitcher is Mark Prior. That's a total of three pitchers who had injury problems that can be linked to overuse, and in Prior's case, he pitched for the Chicago Cubs, the one team in baseball that sat out the pitch-count revolution.

 

Prior was Stephen Strasburg before Stephen Strasburg. As a rookie he struck out 147 batters in 117 innings; as a 22-year-old sophomore he threw 211 innings with a 2.43 ERA and pitched the Cubs to within five outs of the World Series.

 

Along the way, however, he threw a ridiculous number of pitches. In 2003, the Cubs were managed by Dusty Baker, who at the time was a holdout against the new approach to starting pitchers.3 That season, Cubs starters threw 120-plus pitches in a game 29 times, the most by any team in the past 12 years. Prior threw nine of those games — five of them in September alone. Here are Prior's pitch counts in September: 131, 129, 109, 124, 131, 133. In his first playoff start, he threw 133 pitches. In his second start, despite the Cubs being up 11-0 after five innings, he was left in to throw seven innings and 116 pitches. In his third playoff start, he tired in the eighth inning, and everyone blamed Steve Bartman.

 

Prior was never the same. He missed the first two months of the 2004 season with tendinitis in his ankle, but wasn't nearly as effective when he returned. He missed part of 2005 with inflammation in his elbow. And in 2006, after missing part of the season with shoulder inflammation, he came back and was shelled, posting a 7.21 ERA in nine starts. After multiple shoulder surgeries, he has never pitched in the majors again, though he's still trying, God bless him; Prior pitched for Triple-A Pawtucket this season.

 

Mark Prior threw as many games with 130-plus pitches in September and October of 2003 as every pitcher in the major leagues combined in 2012.

 

John was 33 years old when he returned from surgery, 10 years older than Strasburg. The Nationals have argued that there are no real precedents for Strasburg — a pitcher so young and talented who has returned from Tommy John surgery — so they had to be extra cautious with him. The Nats are right that it's unusual for a pitcher of Strasburg's caliber to already be a Tommy John survivor in his early 20s. Really, the most comparable is Kerry Wood. And as with Prior, the way the Cubs handled Wood is nothing like the way the Nationals have handled Strasburg.

 

Wood returned from Tommy John surgery in 2000 and was handled reasonably at first, only reaching 120 pitches twice in his first season back. And here's the thing: Wood recovered nicely — after a 4.80 ERA in 2000, Wood had a 3.36 ERA in 174 innings in 2001, then a 3.66 ERA in 2002, then a 3.20 ERA and a league-leading 266 strikeouts in 2003.

 

But once he showed he had returned to form, his workload ramped up quickly. In 2001 he threw more than 100 pitches in 21 consecutive starts. (Strasburg's highest such streak is three.) And in 2003, with Baker at the helm, Wood was sent to the galleys. He threw 120-plus pitches in a game 13 times. On May 10, he threw 141 pitches, one of the 15 highest totals of any pitcher this century. In his last six starts, he went 125, 120, 122, 114, 125, 122. He threw 124 and 117 pitches in his two divisional series starts, 109 in Game 3 of the NLCS, and then 112 in Game 7 before he was pulled, having allowed seven runs in 5⅔ innings.

 

And like Prior, he broke down. Wood made just 22 starts in 2004, then 14 in 2005 and 2006 combined before he moved to the bullpen full-time for the rest of his career. But what destroyed Wood wasn't how the Cubs handled him after Tommy John surgery — it was how they abused him four years later. The lesson of Wood's demise isn't that you can't throw more than 160 innings after Tommy John surgery — it's that you can't throw 120 pitches every single time you take the mound. Given that Strasburg hasn't thrown 120 pitches any time he's taken the mound, this shouldn't be a problem. Yet the Nationals have turned it into one.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

****abunchadustybaker

[Tracer Bullet]

UGH

 

 

Mark Prior threw as many games with 130-plus pitches in September and October of 2003 as every pitcher in the major leagues combined in 2012

[Proven Veteran]

I really hate Dusty Baker.

[Clem Fandango]

The lesson of Wood's demise isn't that you can't throw more than 160 innings after Tommy John surgery — it's that you can't throw 120 pitches every single time you take the mound. Given that Strasburg hasn't thrown 120 pitches any time he's taken the mound, this shouldn't be a problem. Yet the Nationals have turned it into one.

 

I completely agree with this philosophy, personally, though I believe when it was last brought up Tim mentioned there had been research done to suggest that an innings count can be just as detrimental than pitch count, regardless of how many pitches are being thrown each time out. I don't know, I approve of shutting him down and preserving their star pitcher, especially when you have a rotation behind him talented enough to compete in the playoffs without him... but I've always thought that innings were less important so long as the pitch count stays down, personally.

[Sammy Sofa]

Though with Strasburg isn't it both a matter of coming back from surgery AND that he's never had this many innings, period?

[treebird]

UGH

 

 

Mark Prior threw as many games with 130-plus pitches in September and October of 2003 as every pitcher in the major leagues combined in 2012

 

cannot be posted enough

 

Mark Prior threw as many games with 130-plus pitches in September and October of 2003 as every pitcher in the major leagues combined in 2012.

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v386/edstevensiscool/heroinforehead.jpg

[El Duderino]

UGH

 

 

Mark Prior threw as many games with 130-plus pitches in September and October of 2003 as every pitcher in the major leagues combined in 2012

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/gallery/no/frodo.gif

[Sammy Sofa]

UGH

 

 

Mark Prior threw as many games with 130-plus pitches in September and October of 2003 as every pitcher in the major leagues combined in 2012

 

http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs/212955_o.gif

[TruffleShuffle]

i honestly would punch dusty baker in the face if i saw him on the street. not trying to be macho or whatever, i just hate that man and he deserves to be punched in the face.

[jersey cubs fan]

UGH

 

 

Mark Prior threw as many games with 130-plus pitches in September and October of 2003 as every pitcher in the major leagues combined in 2012

 

But don't you dare blame Dusty.