7/13 Diamondbacks (Kennedy) @ Cubs (Maholm) 1:20 CSN

[SouthSideRyan]

Aramis Fan not understand city ordinances makes this thread an enjoyable read.

 

Careless not understanding probabilities is better.

[Careless]

Where is the "being wrong" part? The 28% probability is not necessarily wrong at all.

It was, in fact, wrong. The chance was 100%. Their models were inaccurate, due to data they couldn't have, I imagine. This was predictable this morning with perfect knowledge.

 

Knowing the weather 6 hours in advance to that level is just not unknowable in that way.

 

So if someone hands you a die and says there is a ~17% probability that you roll a 4, and you proceed to do just that, is that person wrong or right? From a guy who regularly states the % likelihood of things happening, I expect a firmer understanding of probability.

In other news, this baseball game needs to happen.

Neither. The earlier posters confused a late hs/early college math or chemistry class type probability with a model-based probability, which is entirely different. The model-based probability is only correct to the degree that the model is correct, and no meteorologist will tell you he has a perfect model.

 

Edit: but if you were to pause the camera as the die was thrown, then use a perfect model to determine how it would land, yes, that's wrong.

 

Further edit: or you could have a simple 1/6 model which doesn't pretend to use complex factors to decide, in which case it's undetermined.

Edited July 13, 2012 by Careless

[SouthSideRyan]

Aramis Fan not understand city ordinances makes this thread an enjoyable read.

 

I understand the concept, I wasn't aware of the rationale, which is a little weak if you ask me. Totally blocking a possible makeup game for the risk of "extra drunk people hanging around the city" is kind of ridiculous.

 

I live in KY, and I can tell you with absolute certainty that from here everything about the relationship between the Cubs, the City and the residents and business owners of Wrigleyville looks completely ridiculous.

 

Well...you are in Kentucky, and not Wrigleyville (not that I really have a dog in the fight, but it's easy to say it's crazy when you're not involved in it.)

[Theo]

Tom Tunney is a piece of [expletive]

[Schwarber Fan]

Chicago Cubs ‏@Cubs

 

The first pitch is scheduled for 5 p.m. CDT for today's #Cubs vs. #Dbacks game.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Chicago Cubs ‏@Cubs

 

The first pitch is scheduled for 5 p.m. CDT for today's #Cubs vs. #Dbacks game.

 

 

Yay Baseball !!!

 

 

:yahoo: :clapping: =D> \:D/ =D> :clapping: :yahoo:

 

 

 

edit: as it just started to rain here in Addison. [sigh]

[Guest]

http://oi45.tinypic.com/jrtnow.jpg

 

http://oi48.tinypic.com/288nipk.jpg

 

Some pictures tweeted by Bruce earlier today... That's, uh, a lot of water.

[Careless]

And not a drop 10 miles north.

[jersey cubs fan]

And not a drop 10 miles north.

 

what are the odds of that?

[dfnowak]

Chicago Cubs ‏@Cubs

 

The first pitch is scheduled for 5 p.m. CDT for today's #Cubs vs. #Dbacks game.

And according to the radar, more rain on the way.

[Fred Hornkohl]

CUBS are 23-13 (.639) when they score first in the game.... 10-39 (.204) when they don't

CUBS are 31-32 (.492) when they don't allow any first inning runs.... 2-20 (.091) when they do

 

 

 

Go CUBS !!

[Sosa21MVP]

I don't know but they can feel free to throw the first pitch about 5:00pm Chicago time....I'll be home from work then! :wink:

 

Chicago Cubs ‏@Cubs

 

The first pitch is scheduled for 5 p.m. CDT for today's #Cubs vs. #Dbacks game.

 

Well played Cubs. Well played. :good:

[Careless]

And not a drop 10 miles north.

 

what are the odds of that?

About the same that, seven years ago, moody-s was correct in setting. 5% national decline in housing prices at millions to one against.

 

Edit: WASN'T correct.

[Fred Hornkohl]

CUBS are 12-12 (.500) when they score in the first inning.... 21-40 (.344) when they don't

 

 

Go CUBS !!

[Fred Hornkohl]

CUBS are 5-10 (.333) when the opponent GIDPs at least twice.... 28-42 (.400) when they don't

 

 

Go CUBS !!

[MWV]

Congrats on 800 XBH, Soriano.

[Fred Hornkohl]

:clapping: :yahoo: \:D/ =D> \:D/ :yahoo: :clapping:

[Fred Hornkohl]

CUBS are 17-15 (.531) when they steal a base.... 16-37 (.302) when they don't

 

 

Go CUBS !!

[Fred Hornkohl]

CUBS are 5-7 (.417) when their pitcher gets a hit.... 28-45 (.384) when he doesn't

 

 

Go CUBS !!

[Schwarber Fan]

According to the radar, it's going to pour again any minute. Not sure they can possibly get this game in.

[Schwarber Fan]

Mark Grace on Soriano's homer: "That one is still going up Kenwood street."

 

Yes, he said "Kenwood"

[DiamondMind]

Where the hell did Sori find this bat speed at?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Hopefully, this time we can move Soriano during the hot streak.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Where the hell did Sori find this bat speed at?

 

Marlon Byrd's medicine chest? I kid. I hope.

[MWV]

According to the radar, it's going to pour again any minute. Not sure they can possibly get this game in.

 

Aramis Fan:Dreading rain outs::Backtobanks:Adoring Jim Hendry