2012 Draft Day Thread + Cubs Picks Discussion

[Tracer Bullet]

Sheehan or someone said that if several picks in the 10th get cut it won't be surprising and won't mean they were bad picks. That's insane (but true under these rules).

[Cubswin11]

Yeah, Selig and his goons can all go [expletive] off for what they did to change the draft

[UMFan83]

Really sorry if this was already posted:

 

http://chicago.sbnation.com/chicago-cubs/2012/6/5/3065418/2012-mlb-draft-chicago-cubs-mark-appel-new-rules

It didn't take long the new rules to come into play. An organizational source told the Tribune's Phil Rogers the Cubs would have selected Stanford pitcher Mark Appel under the old system. Appel was the perceived top prospect in the draft who fell to the Pittsburgh Pirates at No. 8 due to signability issues.

 

"Where the new rules change everything is that in the past we would have had a tremendous draft budget,’’ a source with the Cubs said. "We’d have grabbed (Appel). If he was there, we would have said, ‘Screw it, we’ll sign him, and if we don’t, we’ll figure it out.’ We wouldn’t have had to bastardize every other round.’’

 

Sounds like the Cubs brass loathes the new draft rules as much as everyone else.

[El Duderino]

Yeah, I think they would have taken Appel as well if it was the old rules.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Cubs stuff from Goldstein chat:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=934

 

Jerry (DeKalb): Almora just said in a conference call his priority is college and his full-ride to Miami. Part of the process or unforeseen?

 

Kevin Goldstein: Part of the process. Do not worry.

luftmich (Niles, IL): Kevin, I know today is about rose colored glasses, but if Almora doesn't pan out what flaw in his game will we likely point to?

 

Kevin Goldstein: That's the thing about Almora, he's such a wonderful combination of tools and skills, a rare combo for high school. All five tools are average to plus. There's not some obvious hole to be concerned about.

 

Rob (DeKalb): This morning I heard a Ryan Braun comp for Almora. Does Almora project to have anywhere near Braun power or hit tools? Thanks for all the hard work!!

 

Kevin Goldstein: From one DeKalb person to another, that's a stupid comp.

scrapper (Chicago): Cubs seem to be going all pitching after Almora? Good idea? Isn't that getting a bit away from the idea of always taking the best player available (BPA)?

 

Kevin Goldstein: Isn't in possible that pitchers were the best players available for them? The club certainly needs arms, but I thought Blackburn and Underwood were nice gets where they went.

 

KJ, are there any obvious 1.1 candidates for the 2013 draft (like J. Upton, Strasburg, and Harper in recent drafts)? In case you're wondering: yes, as a Cubs fan, this is what it's come to.

 

Kevin Goldstein: Strasburg and Harper are historic talents. They don't appear in every draft, or even every ten drafts. He's NOT Strasburg, but top talent for 2013 right now might be NC State LHP Carlos Rodon.

 

 

And my least favorite...

JWR (Chicago): Cubs are awful this year but should Cub fans be excited about the direction that Theo and Hoyer have pointed the Cubs? It seems like there is a plan, even if this year and next year are going to be a bit of a trainwreck.

 

Kevin Goldstein: Maybe 2014 too. The organization is in the right hands, but they're not miracle workers.

[davell]

My guess at how our top guys play out.

 

Almora- signs for 3.500, slot was 3.250

Johnson- signs for slot at 1.196

Blackburn signs for slot at 911,700

Underwood signs for 850,000, slot was 711,600

McNeil signs for slot at 471,900

Conway signs for 200,000, slot was 343,200

Prieto signs for 200,000, slot was 257,000

Lang signs for 150,000, slot was 192,500

Bruno signs for slot at 148,600

Heesch signs for 20,000, slot was 138,800

Krist signs for 20,000, slot was 129,600

Martin signs for 20,000, slot was 125,000

 

Basically, we come out about 44,500 ahead, without using overage. I would expect us to then use the overage to try and get one of the harder to sign guys or maybe a couple of 200K types out of our 11-40 rounds. In the end, i don't see Almora eating a ton of our extra cash, just a bit. Blackburn seemed very happy to have been taken a bit earlier than he was thinking, so I don't see him demanding more than slot. Underwood was drafted in the right area, but I could still see a guy with his upside needing a bit more. He's supposedly talking to his parents this weekend while on vacation. Don't see any shot of us getting Wiseman though. If he would have signed for 2nd or 3rd round money, he would have been drafted in that area.

[El Duderino]

Carlos Rodon isn't draftable until 2014.

[Guest]

BA has am article up that says some of those seniors have already signed FOUR figure deals to create budget for other signees.

 

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk 2

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/06/talking-with-seniors-who-signed-cheap/

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Carlos Rodon isn't draftable until 2014.

 

Someone said that later in the chat, and Goldstein insisted he was a draft-eligible sophomore next year.

[UMFan83]

Weird thing about Wiseman from that fan graphs article. Not sure if its true but in the article it says:

 

Wiseman, who plans to major in business if he doesn‘t sign, did keep the door ajar.

 

As one of the commentors then points out, Vandy doesn't have an undergraduate business school. They have a department of economics which is pretty good, but their only business school is their MBA program.

 

Could it all be a bluff? Not that it matters because even if it was a bluff, I don't think he'll settle for 150K.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yeah, I think they would have taken Appel as well if it was the old rules.

 

I think he wouldn't have been available at that pick under the old rules.

[Guest]

Yeah, I think they would have taken Appel as well if it was the old rules.

 

He wouldn't have made it past the #4 in the old draft rules.

[El Duderino]

Yeah, I think they would have taken Appel as well if it was the old rules.

 

I think he wouldn't have been available at that pick under the old rules.

 

True.

[Guest]

Carlos Rodon isn't draftable until 2014.

 

Someone said that later in the chat, and Goldstein insisted he was a draft-eligible sophomore next year.

 

That is incorrect and Goldstein admitted he was wrong on Twitter yesterday.

 

He won't turn 21 within 45 days of next year's draft, which is the only way he'd be eligible as as sophomore.

[davell]

Yesterday on Twitter, he brought up Rodon and 2013, I told him he was a 2014 guy, and he said "Yup. My mistake." Maybe he's done a little digging? I can't find Rodon's birthday on his profile page. If he's old enough, I guess he'd be eligible.

[davell]

Oh well, guess not.

[UMFan83]

 

And my least favorite...

JWR (Chicago): Cubs are awful this year but should Cub fans be excited about the direction that Theo and Hoyer have pointed the Cubs? It seems like there is a plan, even if this year and next year are going to be a bit of a trainwreck.

 

Kevin Goldstein: Maybe 2014 too. The organization is in the right hands, but they're not miracle workers.

 

At this point I think Cubs fans should just accept 2015 as the year to look forward to. If we somehow start competing in 2014 then that's just a bonus. Plus although this year is terrible and next year will probably be more of the same without much improvement, even if we don't compete in 2014, we should see some clear improvement during that season, as I don't believe the FO is going to open up the check book to fill any holes we might have going into 2015 if the team finishes last in the MLB in 2014.

 

Ideally this year we finish 62-100, next year 65-97, 2014 79-83 and then compete in 2015.

[Guest]

. Edited June 7, 2012 by David

[jersey cubs fan]

Ideally this year we finish 62-100, next year 65-97, 2014 79-83 and then compete in 2015.

 

There is nothing ideal about that timeline. Nothing at all.

[iowahawkeyes89]

Goldstein was on the score the other day and said that talks with Almora will start with the number 4 (meaning 4 million, obviously)

 

Also, I think we could sign Johnson for less than slot. Pitcher with a history of arm troubles, college junior.

[Guest]

Yesterday on Twitter, he brought up Rodon and 2013, I told him he was a 2014 guy, and he said "Yup. My mistake." Maybe he's done a little digging? I can't find Rodon's birthday on his profile page. If he's old enough, I guess he'd be eligible.

 

DOB 12/10/92.

[Tracer Bullet]

Ideally this year we finish 62-100, next year 65-97, 2014 79-83 and then compete in 2015.

 

There is nothing ideal about that timeline. Nothing at all.

 

Almost 100 loss seasons twice in a row? That's stupid. Not ideal.

[jersey cubs fan]

Goldstein was on the score the other day and said that talks with Almora will start with the number 4 (meaning 4 million, obviously)

 

Is there any thought that the Cubs will not sign this guy so they can have 2 early picks next year in the supposedly better draft, and use his allotment to overslot some guys this year? Or would overslotting guys take away the make up pick next year.

[Guest]

Goldstein either underestimates the current talent on the Cubs roster, the amount they can acquire in less than 3 years, or both. Or maybe he overestimates how hard it is to contend for a playoff spot when one third of the teams in the league reach the post season.

[Guest]

Goldstein was on the score the other day and said that talks with Almora will start with the number 4 (meaning 4 million, obviously)

 

Is there any thought that the Cubs will not sign this guy so they can have 2 early picks next year in the supposedly better draft, and use his allotment to overslot some guys this year? Or would overslotting guys take away the make up pick next year.

 

You have to sign the guy to use that pick's portion of the allotment. So if you ignore Almora, then you forfeit the slot amount, I think it's around 3.25 million.