Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-27-12

[CubsInNC]

Why was Rizzo just PH for? the hell?

 

Iowa Cubs ‏@IowaCubs

 

We have no further information on Rizzo. FWIW: All transactions involving Iowa Cubs players are always announced first in Chicago.

 

um

 

Iowa Cubs ‏@IowaCubs

 

Radio report: Rizzo leaves Iowa Cubs dugout, heads to clubhouse.

[Rob]

I wonder if the Cubs have been working with Rizzo's agent. Seems like they wouldn't call him up a month in front of the "keep club control for an extra year" deadline if there wasn't something long-term worked out.

 

Or maybe it's not a callup.

[Guest]

I'm worried it's some kind of injury.

[Rob]

I'm worried it's some kind of injury.

 

That would have been my first thought, but my migraine is making it impossible to think.

 

So yeah, now worried about an injury.

[Guest]

David Kaplan ‏@thekapman

Excellent source in Des Moines tells me that Rizzo is not getting called up to the Cubs. Repeat: NOT GETTING CALLED UP.

[El Duderino]

Iowa Cubs ‏@IowaCubs

 

Radio report: Rizzo exit did not appear to be due to injury.

[davell]

Maybe a family emergency? I hope not, but if he's not hurt and he's not getting called up, I can't think of anything else.

[El Duderino]

Maybe a family emergency? I hope not, but if he's not hurt and he's not getting called up, I can't think of anything else.

 

Maybe they traded him for Dylan Bundy.

[CUBZ99]

David Kaplan ‏@thekapman

Excellent source in Des Moines tells me that Rizzo is not getting called up to the Cubs. Repeat: NOT GETTING CALLED UP.

 

He must be getting traded then. haha You would have to think that he would have pretty good trade value at this point.

[El Duderino]

Patrick Mooney ‏@CSNMooney

 

Source: Anthony Rizzo left Iowa Cubs game with right wrist soreness after a swing and miss.

 

Iowa Cubs ‏@IowaCubs

 

Chicago Cubs report: "Anthony Rizzo left tonight's game with right wrist soreness. He is currently listed as day-to-day."

[Guest]

Hope it's not too serious.

[davell]

Supposedly day to day.

[El Duderino]

In other news, Volstad apparently got some luck tonight. 9 hits in 7 innings, but only 1 run. Nice to see him finally have some good results, even if it's Iowa.

[Guest]

I really don't like that Marco is being sent down after rebounding from that awful start.

 

I know but both Baez and Hernandez deserve and need daily SS reps.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Hope it's not too serious.

 

Understatement much?

[Little Slide Rooter]

At least some of the other relevant Iowa prospects had decent days. Nice to see Marmol finding his grove. If love to see him back on time to build up some trade value. Judging by the options, I'd strongly suggest giving him his closer role back. Something about the evil you know being better than that which you don't. Or something.

[davell]

I'm pissed. They told me last week I was their new closer, but they took it away from me before I got a shot.

[toonsterwu]

I really don't like that Marco is being sent down after rebounding from that awful start.

 

I know but both Baez and Hernandez deserve and need daily SS reps.

 

Another factor as to why I think the timing of this sucks for Marco is because we don't really get a good gauge as to whether or not his improved plate discipline in May was a sign of things to come. I expect his plate discipline to be fairly solid in Boise, which will be somewhat meaningless until we see how he is in Peoria, if not Daytona.

 

Add in that most of the reports had him as showing real well as a defensive player, and I'm still a bit annoyed with the timing of this. Don't get me wrong ... Baez should take precedence over Marco, much as I like Marco, because his offensive upside is that much better, and the reports on his work at short this spring has been that positive. Still ... you wait till Memorial Day, after Marco has turned it around? Again, a month ago, no one would've blinked had this happened. But now? Seems to me that you might as well give Baez some "earn it" time in Boise, see if Alcantara falls off, see if Marco can keep it up beyond this month?

 

Oh well. It's just odd timing.

[craig]

I really don't like that Marco is being sent down after rebounding from that awful start.

 

I know but both Baez and Hernandez deserve and need daily SS reps.

 

Another factor as to why I think the timing of this sucks for Marco is because we don't really get a good gauge as to whether or not his improved plate discipline in May was a sign of things to come. I expect his plate discipline to be fairly solid in Boise, which will be somewhat meaningless until we see how he is in Peoria, if not Daytona.

 

Add in that most of the reports had him as showing real well as a defensive player, and I'm still a bit annoyed with the timing of this. Don't get me wrong ... Baez should take precedence over Marco, much as I like Marco, because his offensive upside is that much better, and the reports on his work at short this spring has been that positive. Still ... you wait till Memorial Day, after Marco has turned it around? Again, a month ago, no one would've blinked had this happened. But now? Seems to me that you might as well give Baez some "earn it" time in Boise, see if Alcantara falls off, see if Marco can keep it up beyond this month?

 

Oh well. It's just odd timing.

 

Too bad for Marco. He's jumped his walk-rate up to 6% for May, BABIP near .400 for May, and May OPS up to .777. HIs seasonal OPS is up near .550 now, and his seasonal OBP versus lefties is .224, so progress. Still, when you're 43 games in with a .224 OBP versus lefties and your composite OPS below .550, you're not grossly overqualified for the next lower level, and it's not like you don't have plenty of stuff that you can work on at the lower level. Also, the time delay till Boise actually starts is what it is; if it's insignificant for Baez, it's the same for Marco.

 

If the April/LHP badness is fluke, and May is the real/current Marco, in due time the fluke will get flooded by the ongoing real. What improved about his plate discipline this month? That's scouting info you've been told? Or just inferring from the fact that he hit .105 then and is BABIPing .380 in May? His walk-rate of 6% is still very low.

 

I agree that switching levels complicates progress assessment. If his numbers at Boise are modestly improved relative to Peoria but not great, it's unclear what to conclude.

 

Still, the purpose isn't to gauge improvement, it's to actually have improvement. And I don't think that playing at Boise will impede that. He'll get his SS action in defensively, he'll be plenty challenged offensively. Better than sitting at Peoria; being overmatched at Daytona. I'd thought he could just play utility 2B/3B/1b/DH/LF at Peoria, since good chance that if he ever reaches the majors with the Cubs it will be utility. But I can't argue with being a focused SS still at Boise.

 

I wonder if there might be two issues/advantages with sending him down.

1. LHP and switch-hitting. Marco didn't switch hit last year, batting lefty with a .528 OPS versus LHP. This year, he's sometimes hit lefty versus LHP (.182 OPS), and sometimes he's hit right-handed (.541 OPS). What seems certain is that LHP have killed him. I'm speculating that the Boise "demotion" will coincide with a commitment to trying to switch hit. At Peoria, they don't practice much. At Mesa they do; I suspect this will give him a couple of weeks to take a LOT of batting practice RH, and then when Boise starts he can give it a shot. (Or, maybe I've got it backwards, and he's recently decided to give up with switching? Do you know?) At Peoria, he probably can get two games a week versus lefty starters. So it's hard to much practice at the thing he stinks most at. At Mesa, they could have him batting every morning versus a LHP.

 

2. Baez is a better prospect, and was going to pass him sooner or later. Marco's a defensive prospect, but offensively he's a singles-hitter versus RHP. Power, walks, ability to hit LHP, those are all projections that will at best take time. This way, Baez will have enough time to produce at Peoria, and move up to Daytona next spring or perhaps even later this summer if things go unexpectedly well. So, Baez will be out of the way, and then Marco can follow behind as quickly as is good for him. In the unlikely event that Marco so dominates Boise this summer that he's bored and unchallenged (fat chance), he'll be able to pick up at Peoria next spring (or perhaps sooner), and still be in a very good place per his age.

 

So might be two advantages for Marco. And I don't think it does him any harm, he's not a fast-track guy anyway and he can work on what needs work pretty much as well in Boise as in Peoria.

[illiniguy]

I really don't like that Marco is being sent down after rebounding from that awful start.

 

I know but both Baez and Hernandez deserve and need daily SS reps.

Yes it is a very good problem to have.

[El Duderino]

It's going to be a really great problem if Correa falls.

[toonsterwu]

rather than a quote block, this is in reference to craig's post

 

first off, i should be very clear. I just don't like the timing of it. By no means am I trying to suggest that Marco should have some priority over Javier. Though I still have some lingering doubts that Baez sticks at short long term, he's done enough to warrant sticking there for now and might have a bit of "starlin castro" in him (guy with all the tools to play short, but whether he develops the consistency, as Starlin has this year, is the question), and his offensive upside is that great.

 

Anyhow, in regards to discipline, I was simply referring to the statistical numbers and some assessments about how he's settled down. Mostly the statistical side, though. He K'd 27.7% of the time in April ... in May, that number came down to 19.5%. The BB rate took a miniscule jump from 4.8% to 5.7%. I had heard that, in April, he was reaching for pitches and seeming a bit antsy and aggressive at the plate, and that of late, he was a lot more relaxed at the plate and not reaching as much.

 

And yes, in the grand scheme of things, this isn't the biggest deal. Marco will still be playing short on a regular basis. He's still awfully young, so that if he reaches Peoria in 2013, he'd still be a bit young for the level. Perhaps those that are watching him daily have seen some things that could be corrected (for example, I think he has a better power approach as a lefty, but I also think that, when he swings as a lefty, the swing is a bit loopy). The fact that the organization wants to keep him at short is a big thing. Last year, I know there were some snippets of folks (azPhil comes to mind) that questioned his ability to stick there. It also really wouldn't surprise me if Marco is back at Peoria later this year.

[toonsterwu]

It's going to be a really great problem if Correa falls.

 

I'm sort of leaning towards the Almora boat these days between the two. I don't mind Correa, and I tend to think that they'll likely take an arm if there's one that they like, but with Baez deserving time at short, Alcantara still hitting (but the power has dipped) in A+, Marco likely headed to Boise, and Carlos Penalver somewhere, the SS depth in the system is as good, if not better, than when Castro/Lee/Lake were working their way up. By the time Almora would be ready (and this is hoping he develops positively), Matt Szczur would be in his late 20's, along with Brett Jackson.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

It's going to be a really great problem if Correa falls.

 

I'm sort of leaning towards the Almora boat these days between the two. I don't mind Correa, and I tend to think that they'll likely take an arm if there's one that they like, but with Baez deserving time at short, Alcantara still hitting (but the power has dipped) in A+, Marco likely headed to Boise, and Carlos Penalver somewhere, the SS depth in the system is as good, if not better, than when Castro/Lee/Lake were working their way up. By the time Almora would be ready (and this is hoping he develops positively), Matt Szczur would be in his late 20's, along with Brett Jackson.

 

That sounds good, but that's not a real draft strategy when you're nowhere close to an elite team.

 

That said, Correa becoming a top 4 guy as the draft process went on (and the draft got more exposed as mediocre at best) rather than starting off as one does have me a little leery.

[craig]

toonster and others, what do you know about Hernandez's deal versus LHP. He was switch when signed and that's what he did in DR; that was going badly so they decided to go straight lefty; then this year he got off to such a horrible start that he decided to go back to switch-hitting again? Or what? Or was he all-lefty last year, then he started all lefty again this April and was getting buried; and then at some point decided to pick up switch-hitting again?

 

Also, toonster, did you read AzPhil's gusharoo on Baez yesterday? I'll post it in the next post. He basically says that he totally doesn't understand he Baez-to-3B anticipation, that he's got all the range and arm and tools for SS, that his errors are careless/plays-too-fast. He opines that having seen Castro a lot in Mesa, and Baez, that while Castro can play SS, he's better and would be better at 2B, and basically thinks that Baez is better suited for SS and Castro for 2B than vice-versa. Or than using either one at 3B. He's pretty gushy-to-the-max on Baez, both as a hitter, as a potential fielder, and as a work-hard-personality. Of course, we know that Phil is no scout, so his opinion may be baloney. It may also be that he talks to some Cubs scouts, and gets influenced by what they think, so that there is natural consensus that Cubs scouts think Baez is plenty-well tooled for SS and Phil seems to think so also.