Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-26-12

[Outshined_One]

Scheduled Games (All Times Central)

 

Iowa at Memphis 6:05 PM

Tennessee at Mobile 7:05 PM

Clearwater at Daytona 6:05 PM

Wisconsin at Peoria 6:30 PM

[Guest]

Iowa: De La Cruz

Tennessee: McNutt

Daytona: Loosen

Peoria: Concepcion

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

2/4 = 1/2 = Not bad...Talking about today's SP (McNutt and Concepcion).

[davell]

Baez to Peoria, per Phil Rogers(weird guy to break it). Makes debut this weekend.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Baez to Peoria, per Phil Rogers(weird guy to break it). Makes debut this weekend.

 

Speaking of Peoria, I just found out Austin Reed is there. He's getting alot of ground balls and has improved his K rate from last year. Seems like he's got your typical minor league sinkerballs profile, but I don't know what he actually throws. I only know he had a pretty good changeup for a HS RHP when he was drafted. I imagined Keith Foulke back then.

 

Pretty sweet for Baez. I hope he destroys nations in Peoria.

[toonsterwu]

2/4 = 1/2 = Not bad...Talking about today's SP (McNutt and Concepcion).

 

I'm not sure Concepcion's ceiling is better than Loosen's. Both seem like end of the rotation arms with mid-rotation ceilings if all goes well.

[davell]

Baez not in Peoria's lineup. Balaguert is, Marco at SS. No clue if Baez move has been made official or if Marco may be at risk.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

2/4 = 1/2 = Not bad...Talking about today's SP (McNutt and Concepcion).

 

I'm not sure Concepcion's ceiling is better than Loosen's. Both seem like end of the rotation arms with mid-rotation ceilings if all goes well.

 

I don't see Loosen's upside as anything more than bottom of the rotation or pen. He's a 23 year old unimpressive stuff RH currently in AA. Maybe mid-rotation upside in a bottom tier rotation.

 

I'd say Concepcion's ceiling is better than his, and being newer, LHeder, and three years younger makes him way more interesting. Also willing to bet he's a better athlete with way more room to grow/get better moving forward...

[toonsterwu]

2/4 = 1/2 = Not bad...Talking about today's SP (McNutt and Concepcion).

 

I'm not sure Concepcion's ceiling is better than Loosen's. Both seem like end of the rotation arms with mid-rotation ceilings if all goes well.

 

I don't see Loosen's upside as anything more than bottom of the rotation or pen. He's a 23 year old unimpressive stuff RH currently in AA. Maybe mid-rotation upside in a bottom tier rotation.

 

I'd say Concepcion's ceiling is better than his, and being newer, LHeder, and three years younger makes him way more interesting. Also willing to bet he's a better athlete with way more room to grow/get better moving forward...

 

I don't disagree that he's more interesting.

 

On the ceiling argument, Loosen's fastball is better (it's touched mid-90's this year and is largely in the low 90's this year (whereas last year, there were still some reports of high 80's ... but I wonder if a lot of those reports were based on his collegiate scouting reports)). He's got more developed and better secondary pitches as of now, with a nice multiple pitch mix already, with an above average slider.

 

I guess I can understand an argument for Concepcion having a higher ceiling (room for projection, lefty who hits 90 already, good action on a 2-seamer reportedly, hope that ironing out his mechanics can improve his secondary pitches and make one of them plus), but that's far down the road for Concepcion and I'm not sure the gap is all that wide. Loosen has found his stride (been really good in A+) and should be in AA soon, putting him at an age appropriate level. We'll get a better gauge on how his stuff plays once he gets up there (which, if he keeps it up, should be later this summer, IMO).

[El Duderino]

Brett Jackson HR. off Shelby Miller, btw

 

Concepcion is getting lit up. Marco Hernandez HR.

[Guest]

Baez not in Peoria's lineup. Balaguert is, Marco at SS. No clue if Baez move has been made official or if Marco may be at risk.

 

He played in Mesa today: http://www.thecubreporter.com/2012/05/26/bogaerts-knows-how-whistle-blows-out-three-run-blast-fitch-park

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I don't disagree that he's more interesting.

 

On the ceiling argument, Loosen's fastball is better (it's touched mid-90's this year and is largely in the low 90's this year (whereas last year, there were still some reports of high 80's ... but I wonder if a lot of those reports were based on his collegiate scouting reports)). He's got more developed and better secondary pitches as of now, with a nice multiple pitch mix already, with an above average slider.

 

I guess I can understand an argument for Concepcion having a higher ceiling (room for projection, lefty who hits 90 already, good action on a 2-seamer reportedly, hope that ironing out his mechanics can improve his secondary pitches and make one of them plus), but that's far down the road for Concepcion and I'm not sure the gap is all that wide. Loosen has found his stride (been really good in A+) and should be in AA soon, putting him at an age appropriate level. We'll get a better gauge on how his stuff plays once he gets up there (which, if he keeps it up, should be later this summer, IMO).

 

Yeah, I'm just going to go ahead and totally buy that he doesn't have actual mid-rotation upside on the kind of team the Cubs should want to have. He most definitely should have more developed secondary pitches right now (he's 3 years older, drafted out of college...I mean, really?), but long term and at the ML level none of them project to much. I highly doubt we see him have anything much to do with them mid-90's as a major leaguer, unless it's out of the pen. I honestly don't even find this one debatable.

Edited May 27, 2012 by PriortoTheoIhadWood

[rawaction]

Uh oh, HR and triple from Brett Jackson. HR to dead CF over the 400ft mark. Triple to left center. I noticed he's also been pulling every ball he has managed to put in play recently also.

[toonsterwu]

I don't disagree that he's more interesting.

 

On the ceiling argument, Loosen's fastball is better (it's touched mid-90's this year and is largely in the low 90's this year (whereas last year, there were still some reports of high 80's ... but I wonder if a lot of those reports were based on his collegiate scouting reports)). He's got more developed and better secondary pitches as of now, with a nice multiple pitch mix already, with an above average slider.

 

I guess I can understand an argument for Concepcion having a higher ceiling (room for projection, lefty who hits 90 already, good action on a 2-seamer reportedly, hope that ironing out his mechanics can improve his secondary pitches and make one of them plus), but that's far down the road for Concepcion and I'm not sure the gap is all that wide. Loosen has found his stride (been really good in A+) and should be in AA soon, putting him at an age appropriate level. We'll get a better gauge on how his stuff plays once he gets up there (which, if he keeps it up, should be later this summer, IMO).

 

Yeah, I'm just going to go ahead and totally buy that he doesn't have actual mid-rotation upside on the kind of team the Cubs should want to have. He most definitely should have more developed secondary pitches right now (he's 3 years older, drafted out of college...I mean, really?), but long term and at the ML level none of them project to much. I highly doubt we see him have anything much to do with them mid-90's as a major leaguer, unless it's out of the pen. I honestly don't even find this one debatable.

 

Sure, ideally, the Cubs will have a 3rd starter whose ceiling is better than a classic "3", but I don't get the two-bolded parts.

 

He's got an above average to plus slider (which is what gives him the mid-rotation ceiling, as he fits everything else that is the typical scouting expectations of a guy with mid-rotation upside). How does that not project to much?

 

He's definitely touching mid-90's (93/94) as a starter this year. That much, I am certain of. And to be clear, these aren't reports from when he was easing his way back in and only going 2-3 innings a game.

Edited May 27, 2012 by toonsterwu

[davell]

Good lord, I hate to say it, but I kind of hope Concepcion is injured, because to say he's sucked is probably about as nicely as we can put it.

[toonsterwu]

Good lord, I hate to say it, but I kind of hope Concepcion is injured, because to say he's sucked is probably about as nicely as we can put it.

 

Here's the thing - what if everyone was right ... and the Cubs simply over-sold Concepcion? Didn't BA say end of the rotation, at best? Fringe stuff, with some projection ( I mean, based on the reports of his stuff right now ... we aren't talking about a arm with good ML potential ... average fastball, below average curve/change, mechanical problems)? (too lazy to check right now, but that was loosely my recollection on what they said). Wasn't Concepcion's best asset supposed to be his "makeup", and not his "stuff"? Didn't a lot of people say this was spending money for spending money's sake, since the new rules were coming in?

 

All that said, while I was never as enthused about the signing as some, I'll defend it some and say that I think I expect that he'll probably adjust some. I think it's a positive that his fastball is actually hitting 90 at times, not the 86-88 some had. I think it's a positive that Concepcion supposedly gets very good action on the 2-seamer (heard that somewhere). Now, supposedly, the breaking ball and changeup are junk right now, and there's been several reports that he has a lot of work to do mechanically, but there's some positives to think that he might be able to adjust and be somewhat productive at some point.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Good lord, I hate to say it, but I kind of hope Concepcion is injured, because to say he's sucked is probably about as nicely as we can put it.

 

He's a 19/20 year old hyped Cuban IFA now spending his first season in America living the life of a minor league baseball player. Lets allow more than a month and a half for that to sink in.

[pitchcs]

Did Hayden Simpson get cut?

[toonsterwu]

Did Hayden Simpson get cut?

 

Still listed on the Daytona roster ... why? Is there some news on the wire/twitter?

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Sure, ideally, the Cubs will have a 3rd starter whose ceiling is better than a classic "3", but I don't get the two-bolded parts.

 

He's got an above average to plus slider (which is what gives him the mid-rotation ceiling, as he fits everything else that is the typical scouting expectations of a guy with mid-rotation upside). How does that not project to much?

 

He's definitely touching mid-90's (93/94) as a starter this year. That much, I am certain of. And to be clear, these aren't reports from when he was easing his way back in and only going 2-3 innings a game.

 

Why does 3 have to be in quotes? If Loosen actually has #3 upside, which I still hiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiighly doubt, then he's trade bait to any team who actually buys that. A medium sized, non-projectable RH with no standout physical attributes doing above average in High A at age 23 is not someone you're thinking of as a future anchor, and believe it or not a #3 starter is one of the anchors in a rotation.

 

I don't buy your analysis of the slider, and I haven't even seen it. If it was that good, I'd have heard about it by now (or even possibly seen it by now). It would have been more talked about in the draft, after the draft, sometime during his time in the minors...SOME point in time. It's probably a nice pitch, for him, as his pitches go. Good for him there. It's not eating up hitters below AA ball for Jah's sake. That's why I find it easy to say that does not project to much.

 

93/94 is not mid-90's, and even then touching mid-90's in the minors is less impressive than you're trying to make it sound. Even then, he's doing that again...in High A...through 25 innings (over 7 starts)...and he's maxed at 78 IP for a season in the minors so far. Literally none of this says mid-rotation arm upside.

 

As far as the Concepcion signing...I doubt they just decided to up and spend 6 million on a lefty who was starting in his country's pro league (and Cuba is a good one) at 18 for the hell of it. I also have to that few, if any, liked the deal, and it's been panned by every major analyst I can think of. There are no some on that deal, but I do think that his talent has been *undersold* since he got that deal no one expected him to get. Before he became a Cub there was reports of him hitting 92 maybe even 93 (with the aptitude and athleticism to maybe grow into that along with a couple decent secondary pitches), but those went away quickly. So he didn't come sprinting out of the gate...That's not really something to hold against a young IFA making his overseas debut. Matt Loosen is just finding his feet in High A at 23 and that's fine, but the 20 year old who was just playing pro ball in Cuba 8 months ago gets the mini-leash? Really?

Edited May 27, 2012 by PriortoTheoIhadWood

[ctcf]

Rizzo HR #17

 

EDIT: Also worth noting that was off a lefty, which is a bit of a rarity for Rizzo.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Rizzo HR #17

 

EDIT: Also worth noting that was off a lefty, which is a bit of a rarity for Rizzo.

 

Who was the nub projecting an .190 ISOslg in his prime the other day? When do we burn him at the stake?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Admit it Epstein. Gerardo Concepcion was never a top Cuban prospect, or even a real person. He was an actor hired to play this young, hot shot top international star. You assumed that as soon as you locked up Soler, the fans would forget that he ever existed. Unfortunately the plan backfired, and all of the sudden you had no choice but to make the 26 year old Telenovela star pitch in the lower levels of the organization.

[Guest]

Admit it Epstein. Gerardo Concepcion was never a top Cuban prospect, or even a real person. He was an actor hired to play this young, hot shot top international star. You assumed that as soon as you locked up Soler, the fans would forget that he ever existed. Unfortunately the plan backfired, and all of the sudden you had no choice but to make the 26 year old Telenovela star pitch in the lower levels of the organization.

 

hahahahahahahahahaha this is so funny

[toonsterwu]

I don't know what reports you had on Loosen from the draft year, but the stuff from Jacksonville that year, and people that followed the team that year, said Loosen had an above average slider that showed well, and that it might get better as he got more work with it. The stuff I've heard in the past year and change suggest that the slider is still above average to plus, and that A/A+ hitters have had problems with his out-pitch. Like I noted above, I certainly think we have to wait and see how things play as he moves up another level, but I see no problems with calling the pitch an above-average to plus slider right now, as I've heard that consistently.

 

As an aside, what exactly do you define as mid-90's? When I talk ... to people ... they always say 93-96, hence why I have no qualms in saying a guy hitting 93/94 is hitting mid-90's (as a breakdown, anything past 96, I've always associated with high 90's, but one ... person said to me once that he called 95+ as high 90's, and 90-92 would be low 90's).

 

Also, what are you defining as mid-rotation upside? Classic mid-rotation upside, scouting report wise, is what, one plus pitch, 2 average pitches, average command? Now, if the slider is more average than above average, then no, Loosen doesn't have a mid-rotation ceiling. But, for now, I'll go with what I've heard so far. (as a comparison, much as I tooted Struck's horn in the past, Struck really doesn't have a mid-rotation ceiling ... he's just so young that I keep hoping something will turn, for the positive, for him, but the stuff doesn't really justify a mid-rotation ceiling label on Struck, which I've admittedly put on him in the past). That's all that I'm talking about when I say that Loosen has mid-rotation ceiling (if you note my first comment, I said both Loosen and Concepcion seem like end of the rotation arms ... and the more I hear about Concepcion, the more I think he should be in XST to get his mechanics overhauled). Now, I know some folks make adjustments on scouting reports at times - for example, if a guy has plus-plus command, they might bend the definition on a mid-rotation starter even if the stuff isn't there. I know some have said that plus makeup for them can help overcome concerns in other areas.

 

For example, let's take a "hot" arm from this year in Francescon. I don't think anyone anticipates that he'll be a legitimate mid-rotation arm in the bigs unless everything clicks right. But if he does? Yeah, that's a possible mid-rotation ceiling, since the change is viewed as an above average to plus pitch, and there have been positive enough reports on the slider this year to go with the average fastball.