2013 Draft Discussion

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The Astros would just take some HS kid who is borderline top-5 and convince everyone he's just as good as the rest for half the cost.

[davell]

The Astros would just take some HS kid who is borderline top-5 and convince everyone he's just as good as the rest for half the cost.

You do realize that Correa was the number one talent on the board for quite a few people, right?

[Guest]

Here's an article discussing the strengths of the upcoming draft from Perfect Game. Patrick Ebert thinks Manaea has the makings of a true number one and compares him to David Price. Not equates, but compares...

 

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks so highly of Dominic Smith - I just love his bat, he feels like a top 10 pick. I hope he doesn't end up at USC.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The Astros would just take some HS kid who is borderline top-5 and convince everyone he's just as good as the rest for half the cost.

You do realize that Correa was the number one talent on the board for quite a few people, right?

 

My theory is that most of those people were repeating hype from the Astros. It sure seemed like he shot up the boards late after they decided on him.

[Guest]

The Astros would just take some HS kid who is borderline top-5 and convince everyone he's just as good as the rest for half the cost.

You do realize that Correa was the number one talent on the board for quite a few people, right?

 

My theory is that most of those people were repeating hype from the Astros. It sure seemed like he shot up the boards late after they decided on him.

He shot up the boards after the shows he put on at some events leading up to the draft.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Potato, potato.

[Guest]

The Astros would just take some HS kid who is borderline top-5 and convince everyone he's just as good as the rest for half the cost.

You do realize that Correa was the number one talent on the board for quite a few people, right?

 

My theory is that most of those people were repeating hype from the Astros. It sure seemed like he shot up the boards late after they decided on him.

He shot up the boards after the shows he put on at some events leading up to the draft.

 

Yeah, just look where Correa's stock went after the Cubs worked him out.

[craig]

Theo was asked about the draft at the convention tonight. He said that study shows that players tend to give better value than pitchers in the first round, and also in the second. But that good pitchers can last much deeper into the draft. Said they might draft a pitcher, but they might also do like last year and get a player with the first, then draft arm after arm after arm like they did this year.

 

Obviously depends on the scouting and the talent.

 

I agree with that. High-pick players can often be really good for years and years. Pitchers are pitchers, so even if there arms are still good when they reach the majors, the odds aren't high that they'll stay special for years and years.

 

If we draft a pitcher, of course I'll hope he's the special guy whose arm lasts for years and proves a big-time ace. But I'd prefer if a player emerges who's good enough to justify going #2, and go for pitchers after that.

[davell]

My ideal scenario is 2 college pitchers separate themselves this year and we get one of them. Take a C in the 2nd round, and follow it up with mixture of HS and college pitching in rounds 3-6.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

My ideal scenario is that one of the HS position players takes a huge leap forward, Houston passes on them in favor of the cheap strategy, and we get him.

[CubsWin]

My ideal scenario is 2 college pitchers separate themselves this year and we get one of them. Take a C in the 2nd round, and follow it up with mixture of HS and college pitching in rounds 3-6.

My ideal scenario is that one of the HS position players takes a huge leap forward, Houston passes on them in favor of the cheap strategy, and we get him.

Actually I'd be happy with either. I trust this Cubs FO so much more than any of the previous ones especially when it comes to draft strategy and scouting. If the Cubs deem it the best course of action to take a HS position player (if one distinguishes himself) and go with their stated policy of taking pitchers in large numbers after that, then awesome. The numbers show that position players taken at the top of the draft have had more success than pitchers drafted in similar spots.

 

That said, if the Cubs take a college pitcher, then it's because they see that player as the clear cut better player and an arm that has a chance to be a #1. I'm hoping this happens because the Cubs need that type of player, as do most organizations. But I doubt they would take a pitcher simply out of need. So whichever one happens, I'm confident that they will have done the smart thing. As Theo & Jed said at the convention, some very highly rated pitching prospects and successful major league pitchers have emerged from later rounds.

 

Here's a partial list of TOR arms (or potentially that) who are in the majors now. (This doesn't even include international free agent signings or highly rated prospects that are still in the minors.)

 

Jeremy Hellickson - 4th round (6th best prospect 2011)

Matt Moore - 8th round (2nd best prospect 2012)

Josh Johnson - 4th round (80th best prospect 2006)

Jon Lester - 2nd round (22nd best prospect 2006)

Clay Buchholz - Sandwich pick 41st overall (2nd best prospect 2008)

Brett Anderson - 2nd round (7th best prospect 2009)

Derek Norris - 4th round (38th best prospect 2010)

Derek Holland - 25th round (31st best prospect 2009)

Mat Latos - 11th round

Yovani Gallardo - 2nd round (16th best prospect 2007)

Trevor Cahill - 2nd round (11th best prospect 2009)

and last but not least Jeff Samardzija - 5th round

 

Some other potential TOR arms:

 

Casey Crosby - 5th round (47th best prospect 2010)

Drew Hutchison - 15th round

Drew Smyly - 2nd round

Tony Cingrani - 3rd round

 

Seeing this list makes me feel more at ease. I'm one of those who has been locked into taking a pitcher with the 2nd pick up until now. Of course there are the Verlanders, Prices and Kershaws of the world, too. So this certainly is not a definitive argument. But I would take any one of these guys on the Cubs staff, so it just goes to show it's not the end of the world if the Cubs don't take my personal favorite of the moment Sean Manaea.

 

Basically, that was a lot of words to say that whoever the Cubs take, I'll be happy. It is the 2nd overall pick, after all...

[craig]

My ideal scenario is that one of the HS position players takes a huge leap forward, Houston passes on them in favor of the cheap strategy, and we get him.

 

Absolutely. That's the ideal. If you get stuck with a college pitcher, that's the breaks, and I'll just hope he'll be one of them that both is/gets really good and stays really good for a long time.

[CubsWin]

Here's a January 20th article from Through The Fence looking at players the Cubs could be considering in the first three rounds. To my dismay, not one high school catcher is discussed.

[RammyFanny]

At this early point i'm taking Frazier with Manea/Appel tied at #2 depending on what they do this year. Something about Frazier I like, and he seems to give off that Almora kind of feel where you'd think the FO could really fall in love him.

[CubsWin]

Is anybody familiar with Dan Kirby or follow him on twitter? It's a solid article except for the following sentence makes me wonder how closely he follows this stuff. He seems good, it's probably just an oversight...

 

Paniagua is a 22-year-old right-hander acquired from the Diamondbacks on August 24.

I realize he was signed by the D-backs and the contract was nullified so I can understand where he got that, but none of the reports on Paniagua's signing with the Cubs made this mistake. It was clear that he was signed as a free agent and his contract counted against the IFA spending cap. No one mistakenly reported that he had been traded for. Again, it's probably just an oversight. He's seems knowledgeable.

[Bilbo161]

I enjoy trying to think through the different possibilities for the first couple picks even though a lot can change between now and the draft. If the FO wants to go pitcher in round one I like Stanek or Manaea right now. Position player I'd think Frazier first then maybe Meadows. If they want to go for some cost savings for later round bonus money they might take a position of need, catcher. Reese McGuire is highly thought of. Right now no one else is as good and this is a position of strength in this draft.

 

If its a pitcher they take first there will be some catching talent at the second round pick. But if its a position player first they would likely go with a pitcher with the next few like last year.

 

Does anyone think next years (2014) first round is better than this years? I'm wondering if the risk of taking a hard sign at number two might be mitigated by the talent at number three next year.

[Guest]

I enjoy trying to think through the different possibilities for the first couple picks even though a lot can change between now and the draft. If the FO wants to go pitcher in round one I like Stanek or Manaea right now. Position player I'd think Frazier first then maybe Meadows. If they want to go for some cost savings for later round bonus money they might take a position of need, catcher. Reese McGuire is highly thought of. Right now no one else is as good and this is a position of strength in this draft.

 

If its a pitcher they take first there will be some catching talent at the second round pick. But if its a position player first they would likely go with a pitcher with the next few like last year.

 

Does anyone think next years (2014) first round is better than this years? I'm wondering if the risk of taking a hard sign at number two might be mitigated by the talent at number three next year.

 

The top of 2014 is definitely better than 2012 or 2013.

[davell]

Next years draft IS supposed to be better. Way too early to tell though. As far as taking a hard to sign type? We pick 2nd. I can't imagine anyone actually passing up 6.2 mill(plus overage possibly) to make a million more possibly at a later time. Maybe a two-sport guy, who really, really, really loves football. At any rate, signability at 2 isn't an issue I see us having an issue with. Plus it sets you back a year. 3 may be a better talent next year, but not enough of a difference to just punt this year.

[Bilbo161]

Next years draft IS supposed to be better. Way too early to tell though. As far as taking a hard to sign type? We pick 2nd. I can't imagine anyone actually passing up 6.2 mill(plus overage possibly) to make a million more possibly at a later time. Maybe a two-sport guy, who really, really, really loves football. At any rate, signability at 2 isn't an issue I see us having an issue with. Plus it sets you back a year. 3 may be a better talent next year, but not enough of a difference to just punt this year.

 

Well you seem to have picked up on my thinking pretty well. I was thinking specifically of Kohl Stewart, who could be a bit of both. A bit of a reach at 2nd overall right now but depending on how high the FO may be on him at draft time, he could theoretically be paid a bit under slot. Right now he is projected top 10 a lot of places. BUT, he loves football (almost a second religion in Texas) and has a long family tradition going to Texas A&M where he committed. So the question in my mind was about the risk he may not sign. Your answer mitigates the risk in my mind anyway. Thanks.

[davell]

Honestly, my guess is they're really hoping a college SP is worth the pick, but I do expect BPA. At any rate, the separation from 1st to 2nd is a mill. Same with 2nd to 3rd. To me, it gives us(picking 2nd) plenty of leverage. If we let a guy drop to 3rd, he's going to lose money, if he gets full slot AND that teams entire overage budget as well, versus accepting slot from us.

[Guest]

I think the likelihood Kohl Stewart plays college football is overstated.

[Bilbo161]

Honestly, my guess is they're really hoping a college SP is worth the pick, but I do expect BPA. At any rate, the separation from 1st to 2nd is a mill. Same with 2nd to 3rd. To me, it gives us(picking 2nd) plenty of leverage. If we let a guy drop to 3rd, he's going to lose money, if he gets full slot AND that teams entire overage budget as well, versus accepting slot from us.

 

Yes...but the point was if the Cubs opt to try to save bonus money because they really like someone expected to go 7th or later, they would propose to pick him 2nd and pay him the rate he would have gotten. That's why I was wondering what the 2014 draft looked like. In case we could not sign…whoever. I'm not married to the Stewart kid, just thinking about the strategy.

[Guest]

I believe this isn't a premium story but let me know if it is and I'll summarize. Link has a good summary of most of the best college prospects in this June's draft (plus mentions a couple of the top 2014 guys):

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/college/season-preview/2013/2614600.html

[Guest]

So will the Cubs take Appel if he's there?

[Bilbo161]

I believe this isn't a premium story but let me know if it is and I'll summarize. Link has a good summary of most of the best college prospects in this June's draft (plus mentions a couple of the top 2014 guys):

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/college/season-preview/2013/2614600.html

 

Thanks for that rasin. Saw Rodon mentioned as someone who would be picked number one this year if he were available. He's a Freshman college guy.