2013 Draft Discussion

[El Duderino]

Yeah, no kidding. We could wind up 5th relatively easily at this point. Hell, the damn Indians were 50-50, at one point, and have gone 10-35 since. They're doing their damndest to catch us and the Twins and Rockies are scary too.

 

holy shiiiiit

[davell]

Yeah, I keep an eye on things and remembered the Indians were buyers at one point and all of a sudden they were in our sights and couldn't believe how bad they've been. Snuck up out of no where on us.

[A New Era]

glad we lost today. 1.5 ahead of rockies. Important loss today folks.

[CubsWin]

All important 3 game series against the Rockies in Denver coming up next week. As much as it pains me to say it, hopefully the Cubs can drop 5 out of 6 to the Reds and Cardinals and have a bit of breathing room going into Colorado. If they can come out of there still in line for the 2nd pick, there are only 3 games remaining in the season, all on the road versus the D-Backs.

 

With the Cubs FO and ability to evaluate talent, I don't think it's a huge deal to get the 2nd pick over the 3rd, but it is an advantage and definitely an advantage having the 2nd over the 5th especially when you consider the higher slot money they can spend.

[davell]

From the flexibility standpoint, I want the 2nd, because it's got a million dollar higher allotment than 3, 3 does the same over 4, and 4 does the same over 5. Not to mention the fact you have the opportunity to get the clearcut better player, if there is one, by that time. Heading into the 2014 offseason, conceivably we'll have Baez, Soler, Almora, and whoever our pick is, all inside the top 50 prospects in baseball. Plus, guys like Vogelbach, Villanueva, Candelario, Amaya,Paniagua, Johnson and maybe a few others that have a shot at becoming top 100 types by that time as well.

[CubsWin]

From the flexibility standpoint, I want the 2nd, because it's got a million dollar higher allotment than 3, 3 does the same over 4, and 4 does the same over 5. Not to mention the fact you have the opportunity to get the clearcut better player, if there is one, by that time. Heading into the 2014 offseason, conceivably we'll have Baez, Soler, Almora, and whoever our pick is, all inside the top 50 prospects in baseball. Plus, guys like Vogelbach, Villanueva, Candelario, Amaya,Paniagua, Johnson and maybe a few others that have a shot at becoming top 100 types by that time as well.

Totally agree. I definitely want the 2nd pick over the 3rd and am openly rooting for the Cubs to lose but have certain players play well. It is a clear advantage having the 2nd pick over the 3rd monetarily and talent-wise, but I don't think that the guy the Cubs will get at 3 will be that much less likely to be in the top 100 than the guy that they would get at 2. The talent level may be less or it may not especially when you consider that the guy they want could still fall to them.

 

The money is another advantage, but like the Cubs did this season, they can draft some easy sign college seniors and mitigate some of the lost advantage if they were to wind up with the 3rd pick. The difference between the 2nd pick and the 5th pick is a big deal to me. I'm not scared they will wind up there, but it's still possible.

 

That said, I am equally as excited at the state of the Cubs farm system going forward. Like you said, the Cubs will have 3 clear cut top 100 prospects and possibly 4 if Vizcaino doesn't lose prospect status going into the 2013 draft. Add the 1st round pick and just one or two of a large pool of 20 and under high ceiling guys along with Paniagua, and what was once a bottom third system could soon be a top five organization.

[davell]

Our last 3 games are the Astros at home. We better have 2 clinched by then somehow.

[CubsWin]

Our last 3 games are the Astros at home. We better have 2 clinched by then somehow.

Shoot, forgot to look at the month of October. Can the Cubs come up with some phantom injury to sit Wood the rest of the season?

[Cubswin11]

Our last 3 games are the Astros at home. We better have 2 clinched by then somehow.

Shoot, forgot to look at the month of October. Can the Cubs come up with some phantom injury to sit Wood the rest of the season?

Maybe just say he's reached an innings limit?

[davell]

Colorado now in 2nd by a half game. I want these next two wins, but all bets are off after that.

[CubsWin]

The Cubs will enter a 3-game set in Coors Field on Tuesday night that could go a long way to deciding which team gets the 2nd overall pick in next years draft. The good news is Travis Wood won't be pitching in this series. Instead, Chris Rusin will face the recently rehabbed lefty Jorge De La Rosa in the first game. Before his injury, De La Rosa was a power lefty, strikeout per inning pitcher. He didn't fare too well in his first game back, however, giving up 5 earned in 3.2 innings, and his velocity was down. Game 2 features Jason Berken, who is coming off of 6 innings of 2-hit shutout ball against the Reds, versus top prospect Drew Pomeranz who has an ERA over 6 in September. Chris Volstad and Jhoulys Chacin face off in the finale Thursday afternoon.

 

The Cubs will enter the series either tied with the Rockies or one game back in the race for the higher draft pick depending on if the Rockies beat the D-Backs Monday night. Unfortunately, I will be more interested in the outcome of these three games than I have been about any Cubs game in a long time.

 

Luckily, with the recent victories for the Twins and Indians, dropping to the 4th or 5th pick in the upcoming draft seems less and less likely. After sweeping a double header from the Tigers, the Twins are now 5 games back of the Cubs while the Indians are 4 back with just 9 to play.

[CubsWin]

For the 2nd overall pick with 8 games left to play:

 

Cubs 59-95 --

Rockies 60-94 1.0

Indians 64-91 4.5

Twins 65-90 5.5

Marlins 66-88 7.0

 

Should the Rockies and Cubs finish the season tied, the Cubs hold the tiebreaker (whoever had the worse record from the previous season), so essentially the Cubs hold a 2 game lead on the Rockies after tonight's loss. Thus, the magic number is 7. The Cubs hold the tiebreaker against everyone listed except the Twins. The magic number for the Marlins to be eliminated from the 2nd pick is 1.

[CubsWin]

With 7 games to play:

 

Cubs 59-96 --

Rockies 61-94 2.0 (with tiebreaker 3.0)

Twins 65-91 5.5

Indians 65-91 5.5 (with tiebreaker 6.5)

 

Magic number is now 5. For the Indians it is down to 1.

[CubsWin]

Wow, over the last 10 games, I've gotten everything I've asked for. I wanted the Cubs to drop 5 of 6 to the Reds and Cards, and they did. I wanted the Rockies to beat the D-Backs the game before the series with the Cubs so they'd be tied with them going into their 3 game series, and they did. And I wanted the Rockies to sweep the Cubs and be 4 games back (with the tiebreaker added) with 6 to play. I think it's time to play the lottery!

 

Magic number is down to 3 over the Rockies and 1 over the Twins...

[Hairyducked Idiot]

A little semantic quibble: The Cubs are not four games up with the tiebreaker. If the standings shift four games in that direction, the Cubs "lose" the spot.

 

The best way to represent the tiebreaker would be a fractional game. They are 3.5 up with the tiebreaker.

[CubsWin]

A little semantic quibble: The Cubs are not four games up with the tiebreaker. If the standings shift four games in that direction, the Cubs "lose" the spot.

 

The best way to represent the tiebreaker would be a fractional game. They are 3.5 up with the tiebreaker.

True that. I guess assuming each team plays 162 games, then they would be 4 games up.

[CubsWin]

Well, the fears of drafting 4th or 5th were for naught. The worst the Cubs will be drafting is 3rd with 2nd almost a certainty. The magic number is now 2.

 

That said, my thoughts can't help but prematurely turn towards next year's draft. Who do you think has the highest upside in the draft? Austin Meadows? And this can be different then upside, but who, at this early stage, has the best chance to be a true impact player?

[Guest]

Highest upside? Austin Meadows, Clint Frazier, Ryne Stanek, Sean Manaea, Kohl Stewart and Trey Ball, I'd say.

 

What do you mean by an "true impact player"? Given how weak next year's draft is, the guy you're getting at #2 in 2013 might only be slightly more talented than #6 in 2012 or #9 in the strong 2011 draft.

[CubsWin]

Highest upside? Austin Meadows, Clint Frazier, Ryne Stanek, Sean Manaea, Kohl Stewart and Trey Ball, I'd say.

 

What do you mean by an "true impact player"? Given how weak next year's draft is, the guy you're getting at #2 in 2013 might only be slightly more talented than #6 in 2012 or #9 in the strong 2011 draft.

Its clear there are no Harpers or Strasburgs in this class, but I'm wondering who of the available guys do people think has the best chance of being a #1 starter or a perennial all-star position player. I know it's early and some of these high schoolers might distinguish themselves by next June, but I'm interested in hearing people's opinions as to who they think has the best chance of being a guy like that.

 

For me, Meadows seems to have the buzz right now. Love to hear what people who know more than I think...

[El Duderino]

If we had the choice right now of anyone, I'd want Stanek.

[davell]

I want Whitson to get healthy and think if he does, he may have the highest upside of the pitchers. Manaea is probably my hope at the current moment though. I wouldn't be opposed to Kris Bryant or Austin Wilson either, if one really stepped up. I guess I'm really hoping for a college guy early, then high upside HS kids to follow.

[A New Era]

Well Marlon Bystro thinks the FO is after a pitcher and that they like Manaea. Knowing that our FO likes him raises my interest too. He's a 6'5" LH who can throw 96 and has a nasty slider that's 15mph slower than his fastest fastball. Will def be watching how he does net spring.

[CubsWin]

Well Marlon Bystro thinks the FO is after a pitcher and that they like Manaea. Knowing that our FO likes him raises my interest too. He's a 6'5" LH who can throw 96 and has a nasty slider that's 15mph slower than his fastest fastball. Will def be watching how he does net spring.

And does it all with a very easy delivery.

 

Video

[Guest]

Highest upside? Austin Meadows, Clint Frazier, Ryne Stanek, Sean Manaea, Kohl Stewart and Trey Ball, I'd say.

 

What do you mean by an "true impact player"? Given how weak next year's draft is, the guy you're getting at #2 in 2013 might only be slightly more talented than #6 in 2012 or #9 in the strong 2011 draft.

Its clear there are no Harpers or Strasburgs in this class, but I'm wondering who of the available guys do people think has the best chance of being a #1 starter or a perennial all-star position player. I know it's early and some of these high schoolers might distinguish themselves by next June, but I'm interested in hearing people's opinions as to who they think has the best chance of being a guy like that.

 

For me, Meadows seems to have the buzz right now. Love to hear what people who know more than I think...

 

Just like 2012, there are no true #1/ace level pitching prospects at this time. Obviously HS kids come on at any time and Manaea or Stanek could take the next step.

 

There's obviously a lot of projection left in Meadows and Frazier and maybe some of the prep catching prospects could end up as a perennial all-star given the position. Austin Wilson and Kris Bryant have the potential to be big-time power hitters too, but there's a lot of risk in Wilson's contact ability and Bryant's position value if he can't stick at 3B.

 

Just remember, the 2013 draft looks to be weaker or equal to this past year's draft. Not sure there are too many perennial all-stars in there at this time - as always, guys step up in the spring before the draft and a guy lower down in the first round could surprise (the extreme example being Mike Trout).

[Guest]

Well Marlon Bystro thinks the FO is after a pitcher and that they like Manaea. Knowing that our FO likes him raises my interest too. He's a 6'5" LH who can throw 96 and has a nasty slider that's 15mph slower than his fastest fastball. Will def be watching how he does net spring.

And does it all with a very easy delivery.

 

Video

 

A little more on him from Fangraphs...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-prospects-of-the-cape-cod-league-by-the-numbers/