2013 Draft Discussion

[davell]

While I agree with Tim, I also think TT has the general approach nailed. Lots of pitching early, whether the 1st rounder is or not. By the way, Keith Law speculated Hamilton and Bourn seem to be the only 2 guys he sees teams offering thequalifier to. I could see Edwin and Napoli getting hit with it, but I can't see a team punting their draft for either. Bourn either, for that matter. Meaning, it's very likely, after the competitive balance picks, our 2nd rounder will fall around 40 overall, with a likely slot value of 1.3 mill. Some solid flexibility there.

[Guest]

While I agree with Tim, I also think TT has the general approach nailed. Lots of pitching early, whether the 1st rounder is or not. By the way, Keith Law speculated Hamilton and Bourn seem to be the only 2 guys he sees teams offering thequalifier to. I could see Edwin and Napoli getting hit with it, but I can't see a team punting their draft for either. Bourn either, for that matter. Meaning, it's very likely, after the competitive balance picks, our 2nd rounder will fall around 40 overall, with a likely slot value of 1.3 mill. Some solid flexibility there.

 

Yeah, that's the big benefit of eliminating the sandwich round - the Cubs 3 rounder next year will be roughly as high as their second rounder this year.

[davell]

I can't see them going backward in pick values, I was trying to project out a few monetary values, eliminating the comp round probably adds 400,000 to our 2nd round slot, and close to 200,000 to our 3rd. Oh, and I would love to find a way to trade into a comp round pick, knowing those picks are mid 30s now.

[StarlinOnYou]

With how absolutely stacked our farm positional players depth looks it would be awfully nice to just load up on lottery ticket arms in 2013 after the first round.

[jumbo]

I'm kind of wondering about something and it might be perceived as massively stupid, but I'll post it anyway. After the 2013 season, I would think that the Cubs would be ready to venture into Free Agency and start signing some top players to complement what should be a pretty decent young core. The 2014 draft should have us picking out of the top 15 picks or so, and if we sign an impact FA maybe we don't have a first rounder and will have a very small draft budget. So, how crazy would it be to just ignore the spending limits and forfeit the first rounders and maintain a high draft budget?

 

After the first year there will certainly be a few players who recognize it and set ridiculous demands knowing that some team would have to blow their budget to sign them. And if the Cubs have, by that time, signed a new TV deal that brings in more money, maybe they're able to get the stadium renovations completed by that time and if the product on the field has become exciting then they'll certainly be raking in plenty on ticket sales and so on, allowing them to pay the financial penalties.

 

It seems like the revenue streams will be picking up, especially the cable deal, and if the farm is producing some low cost talent they'll need a place to put their money outside of FA.

[davell]

I've thought something like this is conceivably possible. My guess is they woyldn't do it in a year they're forfeiting a high pick. The issue becomes how good of a draft your doing it in. to me, it'd have to be a very deep draft, to where you're recouping enough that both the loss of 2 first rounders and paying double basically is worth it. I can see the same thing going on with IFA as well, especially since the non monetary penalties don't seem as harsh. You're just having to take a quantity approach, since you wouldn't be able to spend more than 250k on a player. My guess is if a team does either, it'd happen with IFA first, because of that. And my guess is it'd be less of an effect on overall baseball operations, in general, since the cumulative amount of money spent on IFA is less than half of what is spent on the draft. Bottom line though, is I DO see a team doing this at some piint. And depending on disciplanary actions possibly enforced from what we know, other teams could follow suit. And yes, I hope we pick the right time and spot, and beat everyone else to the punch with it.

[jumbo]

I've thought something like this is conceivably possible. My guess is they woyldn't do it in a year they're forfeiting a high pick. The issue becomes how good of a draft your doing it in. to me, it'd have to be a very deep draft, to where you're recouping enough that both the loss of 2 first rounders and paying double basically is worth it. I can see the same thing going on with IFA as well, especially since the non monetary penalties don't seem as harsh. You're just having to take a quantity approach, since you wouldn't be able to spend more than 250k on a player. My guess is if a team does either, it'd happen with IFA first, because of that. And my guess is it'd be less of an effect on overall baseball operations, in general, since the cumulative amount of money spent on IFA is less than half of what is spent on the draft. Bottom line though, is I DO see a team doing this at some piint. And depending on disciplanary actions possibly enforced from what we know, other teams could follow suit. And yes, I hope we pick the right time and spot, and beat everyone else to the punch with it.

 

Right, my point was that whenever their record is good enough that they don't have a pick in, say, the top half of the draft, they're both ready to sign some premier FA to round out the team AND ending up with a low draft budget. To me the first year that's the case is the year to start.

 

I'm not sure that the draft would have to be particularly deep, because they could pick unsignable players at virtually any point in the draft and could still pick the second-tenth rounders they wanted.

 

If I understood right, the IFA penalites were strictly budget related and might be harder to work around. But the draft penalties are simply money and first round picks. (There may be a second rounder lost too but I'm not looking it up.)

 

Overall, I'm just glad to see the first response wasn't that I'm a total idiot.

[davell]

By the way, one possible negative to doing something like this, is it's possible you could ruin relationships with other teams. As soon as a team does this, guys like Boras could expect other teams to as well. Making it harder to get some players signed. Teams affected by this, could lock out the team that started it from trading. For all we know, teams may have an unwritten agreement not to do this. Pure speculation though, on my part. Because it definitely is sitting there, waiting for a team to take advantage.

[jumbo]

I could see that, but I could just as easily see other teams follow suit. Of course, this entire scenario would be a big [expletive] you to the MLB offices, which could be enough of a reason for some teams to not do that, but they did completely ignore the commissioner's suggested draft slot values when there were no consequences in place.

[A New Era]

I think some team should do it, and I think we should be the team to do it. And I hope it screws up the draft so much that they are forced to go back to the old unrestricted way, where we can spend buttloads on overdrafts.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm just really having trouble imagining a draft where there's enough falling talent to make it worth it.

[jumbo]

I'm just really having trouble imagining a draft where there's enough falling talent to make it worth it.

It would definitely be a little shady, but if Boras and a couple other top agents found out what the Cubs planned they might advise some teams that their clients are going to college. Or some top players signal to teams a strong college commitment and avoid being picked. It's a long shot probably bull [expletive] idea, but I couldn't help but explore it a little.

[CUBZ99]

I can't see a team being willing to pay a 100% tax/penalty on a significant amount of money (anything 15% over pool) and forfeiting their first rounder just to take a gamble on some amateur talent.

[davell]

The idea though, is in doing it, you're going to be getting multiple 1st round talents out of the one draft. And at least part of your penalty would basically be money you would have spent on your 1st rounder over the next 2 years. The key would be picking out a draft with good enough talent to make it worth it.

[Guest]

I can't see a team being willing to pay a 100% tax/penalty on a significant amount of money (anything 15% over pool) and forfeiting their first rounder just to take a gamble on some amateur talent.

 

How much do you think the Cubs overspent on Soler because of the upcoming restrictions and the fact that he was (well, was expected to be) the last major talent before they kicked in? How much does Soler get in a normal pre-2012 IFA environment?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The idea though, is in doing it, you're going to be getting multiple 1st round talents out of the one draft. And at least part of your penalty would basically be money you would have spent on your 1st rounder over the next 2 years. The key would be picking out a draft with good enough talent to make it worth it.

 

Are you really going to get multiple "first-round talents?" The "first-round talents" that fall don't seem like they are going to be all that impressive in the new CBA.

[davell]

The idea though, is in doing it, you're going to be getting multiple 1st round talents out of the one draft. And at least part of your penalty would basically be money you would have spent on your 1st rounder over the next 2 years. The key would be picking out a draft with good enough talent to make it worth it.

 

Are you really going to get multiple "first-round talents?" The "first-round talents" that fall don't seem like they are going to be all that impressive in the new CBA.

in order for it to make sense, you kind of have to. You'd probably have to go into a draft with a list of guys you perceive as 1st round type talents. After the 1st round is over, see how many are left. Again, it HAS to be a strong draft too, to where your original list is probably 60 deep or more. And there'd have to be enough signability question marks to where you've got 30 or so left over after the supplemental round. Other teams would immediately catch on after you took another one in the 2nd and 3rd, which would be necessary, because teams definitely are willing to punt rounds away to add a 2nd guy. After you did it first 3 rounds, my guess is most are off the board, but you'd need to do it twice more for it to truly be successful. Because you have to come out ahead from the loss of two 1sts and all the money lost as well, so you'd better make it count. Has to be the right time, deep draft, and a willingness to lose picks, so it'd have to be once we're good again, so you're not punting top 10 picks away.

[Guest]

Tim (Chesterfield, MO) Thoughts on Austin Wilson? When is he draft eligible and where do you see him falling after the Stanford tweaks? Seems he was touted as a top-10 caliber talent when he was drafted by St. Louis. I can't imagine it is the same now.

 

Klaw  (2:57 PM) I think he is a top 10 guy in next year's draft. He's shown more power both in the second half of this spring and on the Cape this summer before an oblique injury ended his season. He's a good athlete with a good idea at the plate. And the crop of college bats in this draft is really poor.

[davell]

I think I'm hoping for Stanek, Whitson to reestablish himself or that pitcher from Indiana I haven't learned to spell his name yet.

[Guest]

I think I'm hoping for Stanek, Whitson to reestablish himself or that pitcher from Indiana I haven't learned to spell his name yet.

Sean Manaea and he's from Indiana State.

[davell]

Cool. I didn't even know the name until I saw blurbs he was carving up tge Cape. Have you ever watched him?

[El Duderino]

It will be interesting if Whitson bounces back, because obviously Jason and Jed liked him.

[Guest]

Haven't watched the Under Armour Game yet but it sounds like Georgia OFs Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier lived up to expectations as the top prospects there and didn't disappoint.

 

They're from the same town but play for rival high schools.

[Guest]

BA's top 20 prospects from Team USA: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/college/summer-scene/summer-league-top-prospects/2012/2613899.html

 

1. Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State (sophomore)

2. Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas (junior)

 

An unsigned third-round pick out of high school in Kansas, Stanek went through some growing pains as a freshman but turned a corner last summer for Team USA, ranking third on this list a year ago. He blossomed into an ace as a sophomore this spring, then made two starts for Team USA before shutting down for the summer. Stanek has made great progress learning to control his lean 6-foot-4 frame and to repeat his delivery, though his deep takeaway and wrap behind his back sometimes hinders his command. If Stanek can fully harness his command, he has No. 1 starter stuff.

 

"It's big, big stuff—No. 1 overall pick stuff," a third crosschecker said.

 

Stanek works in the 93-96 mph range with armside life and flashes three very promising secondary pitches. His best offspeed pitch is an above-average 86-87 mph slider that is a little sharper and more consistent than his downer curve, though that also projects as solid-average to plus. He also has the makings of an average or better changeup with good arm speed and tailing, fading action.

 

3. Jonathon Crawford, RHP, Florida (junior)

 

After pitching sparingly as a freshman, Crawford punctuated his breakout sophomore year with a no-hitter in regionals, then emerged as the backbone of Team USA's staff this summer.

 

"He's got electrifying stuff," Team USA head coach Dave Serrano said. "He's got the physique of a big leaguer, great makeup, great work ethic."

 

Crawford is strong and durable at 6-foot-1, 205 pounds, and he attacked hitters this summer with a 92-96 mph fastball with tail and sink. His 82-84 mph slider projects as a second plus pitch, though he hangs it on occasion. He worked on developing a changeup, and though he used it sparingly, it flashed average. Scouts aren't in love with Crawford's somewhat herky-jerky delivery, which has some funk on the back side and some effort, causing some scouts to project him as a reliever. Others point out that he repeats his mechanics, even if they aren't textbook, and they believe his solid command is a sign he can stick as a starter.

 

4. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, San Diego (junior)

 

Bryant established himself as a blue-chip prospect during his prep days and has only improved his game during his first two years at San Diego, earning freshman All-America honors in 2011 and first-team All-America honors in 2012. He ranked second on Team USA with an .876 OPS this summer, while playing a serviceable third base and then moving to right field down the stretch. Bryant is very athletic and loose for his size (6-foot-5, 215 pounds), and while he has good hands at the hot corner, a number of scouts wonder how well he'll be able to stay down on balls and think he fits better as a long-striding corner outfielder in the Jayson Werth mold. He is an average runner underway who took good angles to balls in right field this summer, and his plus arm is an asset in right.

 

Bryant has plenty of big tools, but his biggest is his raw righthanded power, which rates as well above-average. His bat path can still get long, though he has shortened it up since high school. Bryant can punish balls to right-center but sometimes struggles to turn on fastballs on the inner half. A couple of scouts observed that he starts in a low, wide crouch and then swings uphill, but mechanical flaws in his swing are deemed correctable. If he can harness his ability, his ceiling is high.

 

5. Bobby Wahl, RHP, Ole Miss (junior)

6. Marco Gonzalez, LHP, Gonzaga (junior)

7. DJ Peterson, 3B/1B, New Mexico (junior)

8. Trea Turner, 3B, North Carolina State (sophomore)

9. Michael Conforto, OF, Oregon State (sophomore) - best bat in 2014, imo

10. Trevor Williams, RHP, Arizona State (junior)

11. Michael Lorenzen, OF/RHP, Cal State Fullerton (junior)

12. Austin Cousino, OF, Kentucky (sophomore)

13. Dan Child, RHP, Oregon State (junior)

14. Jose Trevino, 3B/C, Oral Roberts (sophomore)

15. Adam Plutko, RHP, UCLA (junior)

16. Jake Reed, RHP, Oregon (sophomore)

17. Johnny Field, OF, Arizona (junior)

18. Adam Frazier, SS/2B, Ole Miss (junior)

19. Kyle Farmer, SS, Georgia (senior)

20. David Berg, RHP, UCLA (sophomore)

[Guest]

@KendallRogersPG Had a great chat w/ #IndianaState HC Rick Heller about LHP Sean Manaea. Said the lefty fixed everything they wanted fixed at Cape. #mlbdraft

 

@KendallRogersPG Heller said the transformation Sean Manaea has made as a pitcher is pretty special. Said he was either a non-factor or a soon stud out of HS

 

@KendallRogersPG Biggest thing Manaea has done, and this has been universal with Heller/summer coaches, is major strides with his physicality. #mlbdraft #MVC