2013 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

Is George Springer a fairly good comp on Wilson, Raisin?

Not really.

 

Wilson has more patience, better throwing arm, less speed and range (Springer is a CF, Wilson a RF). He also has better BP power. Obviously both have contact issues, which is where you're probably comparing then.

 

I think Springer is more likely to flame out but both are risky prospects.

[Guest]

Kevin (NJ): Which Austin do you like better in next year's draft; Meadows or Wilson?

 

Jim Callis: Meadows. They both look like they'll go in the first five or 10 picks, but Wilson's propensity to swing and miss scares me.

 

Ron (Queens): Is the 2013 draft as bad as some scouts say or can players at the top improve their stock in a year and make it a little better?

 

Jim Callis: Players can always improve their stock and change the impression of the class. But right now 2013 looks a little worse to me than 2012. The one thing that does stand out as better for next year is lefthanded pitching.

[El Duderino]

1. Sean Manaea, lhp, Hyannis (Jr., Indiana State)

 

The Cape pitcher of the year, Manaea led the league in innings (52), strikeouts (85) and opponent average (.119) while ranking second in ERA (1.22).

 

"I saw maybe four balls squared up all year off him," Hyannis manager Chad Gassman said. "It was almost like he put it on autopilot and said, 'I'll see you in the eighth inning.' "

 

Manaea's fastball velocity continues to rise, and he worked at 94-96 mph most of the summer and hit 98 in a relief appearance. He has late life on his fastball that makes it explode on hitters and elicit swings and misses. There's still room for more projection in his 6-foot-5, 215-pound frame.

 

He throws from a lower three-quarters arm slot, so he's not always consistent with his secondary pitches, but both have the potential to be plus offerings. He tightened his slider and gained more faith in his changeup, which he throws with a splitter grip that gives it tough downward movement. His delivery adds deception without detracting from his ability to fill the strike zone.

 

[Guest]

Here's the full Cape Cod League top 30:

 

1. Sean Manaea, lhp, Hyannis (Jr., Indiana State)

2. Colin Moran, 3b, Bourne (Jr., North Carolina)

3. Phil Ervin, of, Harwich (Jr., Samford)

4. Austin Wilson, of, Harwich (Jr., Stanford)

5. Kevin Ziomek, lhp, Cotuit (Jr., Vanderbilt)

6. Aaron Judge, of, Brewster (Jr., Fresno State)

7. Jeff Hoffman, rhp, Hyannis (So., East Carolina)

8. Colby Suggs, rhp, Wareham (Jr., Arkansas)

9. Jacoby Jones, of/2b, Harwich (Jr., Louisiana State)

10. A.J. Vanegas, rhp, Yarmouth-Dennis (Jr., Stanford)

11. Tom Windle, lhp, Brewster (Jr., Minnesota)

12. Dan Slania, rhp, Cotuit (Jr., Notre Dame)

13. Chad Pinder, 3b, Chatham (Jr., Virginia Tech)

14. Eric Jagielo, 3b, Harwich (Jr., Notre Dame)

15. Mason Robbins, of, Bourne (So., Southern Mississippi)

16. Trey Masek, rhp, Falmouth (Jr., Texas Tech)

17. Mike Mayers, rhp, Bourne (Jr., Mississippi)

18. Michael O'Neill, of, Falmouth (Jr., Michigan)

19. Aaron Blair, rhp, Yarmouth-Dennis (Jr., Marshall)

20. Michael Wagner, rhp, Chatham (Jr., San Diego)

21. Alex Blandino, ss, Yarmouth-Dennis (So., Stanford)

22. Corey Littrell, lhp, Harwich (Jr., Kentucky)

23. Matt Boyd, lhp, Orleans (Sr., Oregon State)

24. Conrad Gregor, 1b, Orleans (Jr., Vanderbilt)

25. Jared King, of, Falmouth (Jr., Kansas State)

26. Dylan Covey, rhp, Orleans (Jr., San Diego)

27. Aaron Brown, lhp/of, Chatham (So., Pepperdine)

28. Hawtin Buchanan, rhp, Bourne (So., Mississippi)

29. Daniel Aldrich, of, Orleans/Cotuit (SIGNED: Yankees)

30. Tyler Horan, of, Wareham (Jr., Virginia Tech)

[CubsWin]

Cubs now 4 1/2 ahead of the Twins and 5 1/2 ahead of the Rockies for the 2nd pick with 27 left to play.

[Cubswin11]

Cubs now 4 1/2 ahead of the Twins and 5 1/2 ahead of the Rockies for the 2nd pick with 27 left to play.

Magic number at 32

[davell]

Right now, we have 2 left on the road with the Nats and 3 with the Pirates. We've got 4 at home with the Pirates, and 3 each with the Reds and Cards. We also have 3 at home with the Astros and 3 apiece on the road with the Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Astros.

[Iceblink]

I'm resisting starting up one of my reverse pennant race threads because it jinxed us last time. We rocketed up the standings, much to my dismay.

 

We can do this. Screw Minny and Colorado - I want to set our sights on the Astros, even if they're hell-bent on having a negative payroll.

[BeerHere]

Is the general feeling that the Cubs will go with a LOT of pitching in the 2013 draft class? Paniagua, Vizcaino, Johnson, Blackburn, Underwood and McNeil seem to be about it as potential TOR guys go in this system.

[Cubswin11]

Is the general feeling that the Cubs will go with a LOT of pitching in the 2013 draft class? Paniagua, Vizcaino, Johnson, Blackburn, Underwood and McNeil seem to be about it as potential TOR guys go in this system.

Guessing they will go BPA but still look to acquire a lot of high upside arms. BPA at the top 3 spots (where I assume we are picking) will likely be a pitcher.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

BPA at that very top of the draft is almost never a pitcher, imo. Outside of the Strasburg/Prior types, there's just not much reason to ignore the higher success rate of position prospects in general.

[jersey cubs fan]

BPA at that very top of the draft is almost never a pitcher, imo. Outside of the Strasburg/Prior types, there's just not much reason to ignore the higher success rate of position prospects in general.

 

Leave Prior out of it, Tex was the better call then.

[NDNazareth]

What's everyone's top 5 for the Cubs pick?

 

In order, here is who I want most at Cubs pick.

 

1) OF Austin Meadows H.S. (GA)

2) RHP Ryan Stanek Arkansas (JR)

3) LHP Sean Manaea Indiana State (JR)

4) RHP Mark Appel Stanford (SR)

5) 3B Kris Bryant San Diego (JR)

 

Keep an eye on:

OF Clint Frazier H.S. (GA)

LHP Trey Ball H.S. (IN)

 

Frazier and Ball could rocket up boards.

[El Duderino]

I'd really like one of the college pitchers to have a dominant year. That would make the decision easy.

[Guest]

I'd really like one of the college pitchers to have a dominant year. That would make the decision easy.

It would be better if TWO of them had dominant years.

[Cubswin11]

What's everyone's top 5 for the Cubs pick?

 

In order, here is who I want most at Cubs pick.

 

1) OF Austin Meadows H.S. (GA)

2) RHP Ryan Stanek Arkansas (JR)

3) LHP Sean Manaea Indiana State (JR)

4) RHP Mark Appel Stanford (SR)

5) 3B Kris Bryant San Diego (JR)

 

Keep an eye on:

OF Clint Frazier H.S. (GA)

LHP Trey Ball H.S. (IN)

 

Frazier and Ball could rocket up boards.

I'd be really against a HS pitcher at a top 3 pick for us, there is so much time in developing a HS arm and too much injury risk for the pick to be worth it at a top 5 spot when there are more sure things available or better types of players to gamble on/less potential for bust. IMO (unless it's a clear once in a generation guy). My top 5 would be

 

Manaea

Stanek

Meadows

Whitson

Appel

 

Are there any intriguing catching prospects that we could be targeting in the 2nd-4th rounds? That seems like it's def a position we could add depth to and could use a decent prospect there.

[Guest]

What's everyone's top 5 for the Cubs pick?

 

In order, here is who I want most at Cubs pick.

 

1) OF Austin Meadows H.S. (GA)

2) RHP Ryan Stanek Arkansas (JR)

3) LHP Sean Manaea Indiana State (JR)

4) RHP Mark Appel Stanford (SR)

5) 3B Kris Bryant San Diego (JR)

 

Keep an eye on:

OF Clint Frazier H.S. (GA)

LHP Trey Ball H.S. (IN)

 

Frazier and Ball could rocket up boards.

I'd be really against a HS pitcher at a top 3 pick for us, there is so much time in developing a HS arm and too much injury risk for the pick to be worth it at a top 5 spot when there are more sure things available or better types of players to gamble on/less potential for bust. IMO (unless it's a clear once in a generation guy). My top 5 would be

 

Manaea

Stanek

Meadows

Whitson

Appel

 

Are there any intriguing catching prospects that we could be targeting in the 2nd-4th rounds? That seems like it's def a position we could add depth to and could use a decent prospect there.

 

Whitson didn't show much in his brief Cape Cod appearance, he's going to have to bounce back big time next year to be a top 5 pick.

 

Prep catching is one of the strongest positions in the draft.

[El Duderino]

I'd really like one of the college pitchers to have a dominant year. That would make the decision easy.

It would be better if TWO of them had dominant years.

 

True, but I'm assuming Houston will try to save money for the 2nd and 3rd round like they did this year, so the best guy should be there at 2.

[davell]

At this point, Whitson's probably closer to going nearer or 2nd round pick than our 1st. I hate to say I want him to struggle, but it'd be great to get him in the 2nd, aling with Stanek or Manaea in the 1st. Terribly slim shot, but all bets are off if he's not any better than last year.

[Guest]

At this point, Whitson's probably closer to going nearer or 2nd round pick than our 1st. I hate to say I want him to struggle, but it'd be great to get him in the 2nd, aling with Stanek or Manaea in the 1st. Terribly slim shot, but all bets are off if he's not any better than last year.

I don't know that I'd go that far.

 

The bar is actually pretty low for Whitson to turn himself back into a top 10 pick given how weak the draft is.

[Cubswin11]

At this point, Whitson's probably closer to going nearer or 2nd round pick than our 1st. I hate to say I want him to struggle, but it'd be great to get him in the 2nd, aling with Stanek or Manaea in the 1st. Terribly slim shot, but all bets are off if he's not any better than last year.

I don't know that I'd go that far.

 

The bar is actually pretty low for Whitson to turn himself back into a top 10 pick given how weak the draft is.

What kind of stuff has Whitson struggled with since going to Florida? And what are the main areas of his game that if improvements were made they would make for him jumping to most? Velo, stamina/compile IP, avoid injury, secondary stuff? I didn't follow him at all this year, all I know he was a big time prep arm.

[Guest]

At this point, Whitson's probably closer to going nearer or 2nd round pick than our 1st. I hate to say I want him to struggle, but it'd be great to get him in the 2nd, aling with Stanek or Manaea in the 1st. Terribly slim shot, but all bets are off if he's not any better than last year.

I don't know that I'd go that far.

 

The bar is actually pretty low for Whitson to turn himself back into a top 10 pick given how weak the draft is.

What kind of stuff has Whitson struggled with since going to Florida? And what are the main areas of his game that if improvements were made they would make for him jumping to most? Velo, stamina/compile IP, avoid injury, secondary stuff? I didn't follow him at all this year, all I know he was a big time prep arm.

 

He had a severe groin injury in the fall which ended up sapping him of his elite arm strength. His velocity was reduced in the spring and he had a missed some time because of the reduced velocity/shoulder soreness due to overcompensating a lack of leg strength. His shoulder and velocity bounced back in the CWS and Cape but he only threw 5 relief innings before Florida shut him down for precautionary reasons.

 

When healthy, like his freshman year, he has a plus FB and the best slider in the 2012 or 2013 draft. He needs to show his arm strength is back as a starter next spring and stay healthy with a starter workload.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I posted these numbers in the game day thread, but they belong here.

 

I'm continuing to argue that the "go cheap in the first round and save money for later overslots" approach is a really, really bad way to draft. The analogy I use is the NFL draft. People think baseball talent is distributed that way: First-round picks are awesome, but there's a slow and steady dropoff as you go down through the rounds, and mid-round picks are still quite the important value.

 

In baseball, the drop is much steeper in the first part of the first round, and then you enter a very large pool of undifferentiated mediocrity. I'm not at all convinced that the "first-round talents" you can get overslotting in the second round are really all that much more better than the ordinary second-round talents, and so forth.

 

Anyway:

 

I posted this over in the gameday thread, but it really goes here in case people want to

 

 

1975 to 2000

Overall pick, percentage who posted at least 10 bWAR in MLB, average bWAR per pick.

1, 72%, 31.4

2, 44%, 12.0

3, 36%, 10.2

4, 28%, 9.9

5, 20%, 6.3

27-30, 12%, 3.1

47-50, 10%, 4.7

 

The dropoff in expected value in the early picks is significant. Even dropping from the 2nd-best player to the 5th-best player cuts your odds of getting an established major-leaguer in half and costs you 6 WAR in expected value. Meanwhile, the mid-second round picks were outperforming the late first-rounders.

 

Obviously, this information could change with time, and it takes awhile to see because of the nature of the draft, but I don't think the talent distribution has changed much.

[Guest]

stop winning, cobs

[davell]

Yeah, no kidding. We could wind up 5th relatively easily at this point. Hell, the damn Indians were 50-50, at one point, and have gone 10-35 since. They're doing their damndest to catch us and the Twins and Rockies are scary too.