Moving forward- very early look at 2013

[Vanilla Ice]

Are those for starters/everyday players at the position or for all players?

All players, couldn't figure out how to find just the starters

[Guest]

Listening to Olney talk on a KC radio station about Greinke, and he says that there looks to be a lot of hesitancy in giving him a big deal, so much so that he might only get a deal in the 60-70 million range. He then qualified it with the "it only takes one team to fall in love with him to get a big deal" line, but still, that could be incredibly tempting for a player of Greinke's quality(~30 fWAR last 5 years, ~15 fWAR last 3 years). Furthermore, I wonder if he might be the target BECAUSE of the anxiety issues. Taking the extra steps to ensure that Greinke is comfortable and adjusted in order to reap the substantial benefits definitely seems like a move this FO would make, especially after the whole "adjusting to being a major leaguer" workshop they put together. A 5 year deal to Greinke would only take him thru age 33 as well, and he's been very durable physically. Anyway, a lot of small things that might point to Greinke being a target this offseason.

[dew1679666265]

Listening to Olney talk on a KC radio station about Greinke, and he says that there looks to be a lot of hesitancy in giving him a big deal, so much so that he might only get a deal in the 60-70 million range. He then qualified it with the "it only takes one team to fall in love with him to get a big deal" line, but still, that could be incredibly tempting for a player of Greinke's quality(~30 fWAR last 5 years, ~15 fWAR last 3 years). Furthermore, I wonder if he might be the target BECAUSE of the anxiety issues. Taking the extra steps to ensure that Greinke is comfortable and adjusted in order to reap the substantial benefits definitely seems like a move this FO would make, especially after the whole "adjusting to being a major leaguer" workshop they put together. A 5 year deal to Greinke would only take him thru age 33 as well, and he's been very durable physically. Anyway, a lot of small things that might point to Greinke being a target this offseason.

 

Getting Greinke at 5/60-70 would make me really, really happy. I keep thinking if Hamels hits FA, though, whichever major market team loses out in his bidding will (even if reluctantly) turn toward Greinke and drive up his price.

 

If that doesn't happen, though, I could see the Theo regime seeing a major value and jumping on it. Getting Greinke and Upton and committing, say, $100-120 million in total value would be a fantastic offseason.

[Guest]

And on a more contrary note, one could read this article and wonder if Theo will sign a big free agent ever again.

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2012/06/13/how-success-bred-monster-theo-epstein-consider

[Little Slide Rooter]

And on a more contrary note, one could read this article and wonder if Theo will sign a big free agent ever again.

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2012/06/13/how-success-bred-monster-theo-epstein-consider

 

To me, it looks more like what I've thought along. Big free agents arent out of the question, but unlike the past regimes of both the Red Sox and Cubs, they won't be used to fill every single hole, but rather evaluate each hole and what we have coming up or potential reclamations and low risk aquisitions are available to try, unless and ideal free agent for that spot is available. Basically, no more just grabbing the best available thing to fill the hole.

 

Looking at basbealls best teams over the past several years, Yankees, Rangers, Red Sox, and Phillies each of them were built with a perfect combination of free agent and trade aquisitions as well as from within. That's what we need to see happen.

[Guest]

And on a more contrary note, one could read this article and wonder if Theo will sign a big free agent ever again.

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2012/06/13/how-success-bred-monster-theo-epstein-consider

 

Hopefully his attitude change is just more about being more careful about them and not completely avoiding them.

[davell]

I feel pretty confident that when Theo took this job, he WAS going to spend huge. Thirty mill or so each and every year. But it would have been on the draft and IFA's, not a bigtime FA. Now, at some point, he's not going to have a choice, but to spend it on a FA instead. Not now, but at some point, when he's looking at all the surplus money leftover that COULD have been spent, sooner or later he'll decide to spend it obviously. Greinke? I love the idea of going after him if he came cheap, but I agree with Olney's idea of it only takes one theory in the end.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

And on a more contrary note, one could read this article and wonder if Theo will sign a big free agent ever again.

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2012/06/13/how-success-bred-monster-theo-epstein-consider

 

 

When Epstein talks like that, it starts to seem so appealing. Who wouldn't want to watch a team grow from draft day to World Series?

 

But unless we clean up even better than we hope in the Garza/Dempster/everyone trades this July, I don't see how that's feasible. If Jackson busts, you've got exactly two positions filled with homegrown potential stars, and the next guy to have even a chance of being an impact talent after them is Lake in 2014. I don't see how you could build a playoff-quality lineup with that method even by 2015. And the pitching is even further behind.

[davell]

Part of what he's saying though, is actually going through the growing pains with a kid. Commit to Brett, for instance, and truly give him a shot. If he's 18-100, with 35 K's, stick with him and help him adjust. We actually have no clue whatsoever how Felix Pie would have done, if we had let him start for us for an entire season. It just takes something to click during instruction, an adjustment or two to be made and we could have a true asset, instead of a guy getting labeled a defensive replacement, without ever having time to see if he's got more. obviously, it's not going to work all the time, but I feel better about the instruction these guys will get now and I bet we do better at this type of thing than most do.

[Magnetic Curses]

And on a more contrary note, one could read this article and wonder if Theo will sign a big free agent ever again.

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2012/06/13/how-success-bred-monster-theo-epstein-consider

 

 

When Epstein talks like that, it starts to seem so appealing. Who wouldn't want to watch a team grow from draft day to World Series?

 

But unless we clean up even better than we hope in the Garza/Dempster/everyone trades this July, I don't see how that's feasible. If Jackson busts, you've got exactly two positions filled with homegrown potential stars, and the next guy to have even a chance of being an impact talent after them is Lake in 2014. I don't see how you could build a playoff-quality lineup with that method even by 2015. And the pitching is even further behind.

 

you plug in jackson, who is a significant upgrade to anything we have or could get in cf (and that's where he'll have to play), rizzo, who will be a long-term upgrade over what we have now, and vitters, who is a question mark, but worthy of a shot when the alternative is considered (not that stewart is a terrible player). i wouldn't trade soto, but i'd pursue greinke AND hamels heavily, it's the only way we're going to contend--we have no pitching talent on the farm, we're going to have to spend big on pitching.

 

hopefully we are able to get a reasonable return on lahair or soriano, but you'll need one or the other in left field to get the full benefit of jackson in center. jackson has put up numbers at every level, i'm confident he'll do the same at the next.

 

then, you have:

 

1. DeJesus- rf

2. Castro - ss

3. Rizzo - 1b

4. Soriano - lf

5. Jackson - cf

6. Vitters - 3b

7. Barney - 2b

8. Soto- c

 

starters:

hamels

greinke

garza

shark

wood/maholm

 

that gives us a shot and 6 homegrown players in the field.

[sneakypower]

hamels

greinke

garza

this alone is like $400M worth of commitments

 

1. DeJesus- rf

2. Castro - ss

3. Rizzo - 1b

4. Soriano - lf

5. Jackson - cf

6. Vitters - 3b

7. Barney - 2b

8. Soto- c

this is still a bottom-5 offense in baseball

Edited June 14, 2012 by sneakypower

[SouthSideRyan]

hamels

greinke

garza

this alone is like $400M worth of commitments

 

Not if you don't extend Garza.

[Magnetic Curses]

hamels

greinke

garza

this alone is like $400M worth of commitments

 

or 1/3rd of the annual payroll. which is why it's a good thing we develop our position players.

[sneakypower]

if you don't extend Garza, then he needs to be moved almost immediately

 

and hamels & greinke is still about $300M in commitments, to two pitchers...that's certainly a pipe dream with this FO

 

hamels

greinke

garza

this alone is like $400M worth of commitments

 

or 1/3rd of the annual payroll. which is why it's a good thing we develop our position players.

that's definitely being overstated; there's two guys in the lineup you posted we can expect to be 3-win players

[Magnetic Curses]

hamels

greinke

garza

this alone is like $400M worth of commitments

 

1. DeJesus- rf

2. Castro - ss

3. Rizzo - 1b

4. Soriano - lf

5. Jackson - cf

6. Vitters - 3b

7. Barney - 2b

8. Soto- c

this is still a bottom-5 offense in baseball

 

 

that's conjecture. but the giants skate by with worse.

[Guest]

I'll take the under on 300M to Hamels + Greinke, but that's really beside the point. It's easy to do, but penciling in multiple FA impact players just doesn't work in a practical sense.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

As others have noted that offense is just super-duper terrible. I'll take the under on a .600 MLB OPS from the combination of Jackson and Vitters.

[sneakypower]

1. DeJesus- rf

2. Castro - ss

3. Rizzo - 1b

4. Soriano - lf

5. Jackson - cf

6. Vitters - 3b

7. Barney - 2b

8. Soto- c

this is still a bottom-5 offense in baseball

 

 

that's conjecture. but the giants skate by with worse.

it's not conjecture, it's projection; that's ostensibly the same 2nd-worst-in-baseball offense we're running out there right now

 

the Giants have arguably the best bullpen in baseball and a park that also suppresses offense; they're only the 10th-worst offense in the league, park adjusted

[Magnetic Curses]

Love super duper from Kyle. Ostensibly is just an insufferable word though.

[Magnetic Curses]

I will have an argument, but I'm ostensibly posting from my phone right now.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

But anyway, yeah, if we binge on free agents this offseason, then we can get better really quick.

 

The post you replied to was discussing yet another article where Epstein heavily implied that he has no intention of doing that.

[Magnetic Curses]

Uh huh. And pitching is going to conjure itself out of midair or my ass, too.

[Sammys Boombox]

I'll take the under on 300M to Hamels + Greinke, but that's really beside the point. It's easy to do, but penciling in multiple FA impact players just doesn't work in a practical sense.

 

Buster Olney thinks Greinke might get only a 4/64 or 5/75 type of deal "unless there's one crazy GM out there." I would take the under too.

[sneakypower]

Buster Olney thinks Greinke might get only a 4/64 or 5/75 type of deal "unless there's one crazy GM out there." I would take the under too.

that's probably the most absurd suggestion Olney's ever made, in a career full of absurd suggestions

 

since 08, there've been seven players in baseball more valuable than Greinke...and he's still just 28

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/zack-greinke-will-get-paid/

[Little Slide Rooter]

Just using internal options, this is a look at what the 2013 opening day roster might look like if they were top not re sign any impending free agents. Playersare those I dont expect back at all. Bolded are those who may be gone, with no real internal answer to replace them.

 

1B Rizzo

2B Barney

SS Castro

3B Valbuena Stewart

LF Soriano

CF DeJesusB. Jackson

RF LaHair DeJesus

C Soto Castillo

SP 1 Garza

SP 2 Dempster Volstad

SP 3 Shark

SP 4 Wood

SP 5 Maholm

CL Marmol

BP Russell

BP Camp Cabrera

BP Ascenio Beliveau

BP Coleman Rhoderick

BP Corpas J. Jackson

BP Maine Bowden

BP Dolis

Bench Clevenger

Bench Johnson Sappelt

Bench Mather Valbuena

Bench BakerCardenas

Bench Campana LaHair

 

Additional internal options

Vitters IF

Raley SP

Rusin SP

Wells SP

Hatley BP

Antigua BP

Batista BP