2013 Rule 5 talk

[davell]

Yeah, that could be bad news for Watkins. I hope we find a way to include him in a teade beforehand now. I figure he'll get picked and I also think he's got a major league career ahead of him. But he's blocked in all sorts of ways with us.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Baker is sure to be off of the 40 man, and if it came down to it, I'd much prefer protecting Villanueva and Watkins and let Valbuena go. That would give us 3 3Bs on the 40 man: Stewart, Vitters, and Villanueva and 4 MI: Barney, Watkins, Castro, and Cardenas

[Little Slide Rooter]

This is our current 40 man BTW

 

Chicago Cubs 40-Man Roster

Chicago Cubs 40-man Roster

16 Jeff Beliveau

Jacob Brigham

55 Alberto Cabrera

54 Shawn Camp

52 Lendy Castillo

Jaye Chapman *

27 Casey Coleman*

Gerardo Concepcion *

60 Manuel Corpas

48 Rafael Dolis *

22 Matt Garza ?

41 Justin Germano

57 Scott Maine ?

49 Carlos Marmol ?

62 Marcos Mateo 60-day DL ?

50 Blake Parker 60-day DL ?

40 James Russell

29 Jeff Samardzija

Arodys Vizcaino 15-day DL

32 Chris Volstad ?

30 Travis Wood

 

# Catchers

53 Welington Castillo

51 Steve Clevenger

47 Blake Lalli *

 

# Infielders

3 Jeff Baker

15 Darwin Barney

45 Adrian Cardenas

13 Starlin Castro

73 Junior Lake *

44 Anthony Rizzo

2 Ian Stewart 15-day DL *

24 Luis Valbuena

61 Josh Vitters *

 

# Outfielders

1 Tony Campana

9 David DeJesus

6 Bryan LaHair ?

21 Joe Mather

17 Dave Sappelt *

Jorge Soler *

12 Alfonso Soriano

72 Matthew Szczur *

 

That's at least 9 open spots, counting Mateo and Parker back from the 60 day. Also, there's all of the ?s who could be traded or dropped as well.

[biittner77]

That's not really 9 spots since guys like Mather and Camp for example are going to be replaced by guys that get signed over the winter to fill those roles. Plus there's also a good chance that the Cubs trade for some players that need to be rostered.

[davell]

My guess is one of Rosscup or Burke gets kept, along with one of the low level, high upside arms, like a Peralta or Rosario. I'm starting to see the writing on the wall for Watkins though, I think the Villanueva trade hurt his chances quite a bit. That said, Villanueva may be blocked here as well, he'll certainly get kept obviously, but I'd love to see him dealt to the Braves in a Delgado package or to Oakland as part of a deal for a young arm there. At any rate, I can see us making a minor leaguer for minor leaguer type trade over the offseason, where we acquire more pitching.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Depending on the plan for 2013, if they want to make some quality additions through trade or FA, or even reclamation projects, that's great. However, if they plan on replacing Joe Mather and Sean Camp them with other versions of Joe Mather and Sean Camp, they should seriously consider giving those spots to guys like Watkins and Hatley who they may be on the fence as far as protecting goes.

[Little Slide Rooter]

My guess is one of Rosscup or Burke gets kept, along with one of the low level, high upside arms, like a Peralta or Rosario. I'm starting to see the writing on the wall for Watkins though, I think the Villanueva trade hurt his chances quite a bit. That said, Villanueva may be blocked here as well, he'll certainly get kept obviously, but I'd love to see him dealt to the Braves in a Delgado package or to Oakland as part of a deal for a young arm there. At any rate, I can see us making a minor leaguer for minor leaguer type trade over the offseason, where we acquire more pitching.

 

I've thought that for a while. Especially when looking at all of our middle infielders at various levels: Lake, Alcantara, Torreyes, Hernandez, and Amaya could all draw interest, and some team that's has a lot of pitching prospects but lacking offensive prospects might be willing to swap a quality pitching prospect for one of them.

[toonsterwu]

My guess is one of Rosscup or Burke gets kept, along with one of the low level, high upside arms, like a Peralta or Rosario. I'm starting to see the writing on the wall for Watkins though, I think the Villanueva trade hurt his chances quite a bit. That said, Villanueva may be blocked here as well, he'll certainly get kept obviously, but I'd love to see him dealt to the Braves in a Delgado package or to Oakland as part of a deal for a young arm there. At any rate, I can see us making a minor leaguer for minor leaguer type trade over the offseason, where we acquire more pitching.

 

I have high doubts they will deal Villanueva. They were reportedly targeting young 3rd basemen in trades, so it was a position they wanted to address. Villanueva might not have been Plan A or B (or so forth), but they had to like him enough for him to be the centerpiece of the deal.

[JeffH]

toonster, what are your thoughts on A.J. Morris?

 

The previous administration thought enough of him to acquire him even while he was injured.

[davell]

At this point, we've got tons of flexibility with our 40 man, even with having 44 guys on it currently. We'll possibly, even likely deal a few guys we know would stick on it, but here's my current breakdown:

 

Safe- Beliveau, Cabrera, L Castillo, Marmol, Russell, Shark, Wood, Vizcaino, Garza, Concepcion, Dolis, Raley, Lake, W Castillo, Clevenger, Barney, Castro, LaHair, Rizzo, Vitters, Jackson, Soriano, DeJesus, Szczur, Soler, Campana,

 

FA- Camp, Mather

 

Non Tender Probabilities- Volstad, Stewart

 

Probable keepers- Corpas, Valbuena, Jaye Chapman, Germano, Cardenas

 

Possible keepers, but I doubt it- Parker, Mateo, Maine, Sappelt, Bowden, Hinshaw

 

Guys we can DFA and get back- Brigham, Coleman, Lalli

 

I'm putting Brigham in that last group solely because of his elbow issue. My gut tells me Sappelt is still in our system, but not on our 40 man after this season and the group of pitchers I listed with him, maybe we keep 1 of them. Corpas, Valbuena, and Germano are all borderline interesting, based on each probably being arb eligible. Corpas being the only one going to make over a mill though, I think we'll keep all 3. At any rate, it puts us at 32 if we keep all the guys I mentioned as likely and the guys I listed as possibilities, before we add guys from the next class. Of which, at this point, Villanueva is about the only lock, in my eyes, along with Rusin.

 

My guess is Watkins, McNutt and Peralta get kept at this point too, but that's it. Rosario's elbow issue probably keeps him from being in danger, and we could wind up losing 2 of Whitenack, Struck, Hatley, and Jay Jackson. But if we care about them, we've still got plenty of options to get rid of more. About the only advanof having a crappy roster at the moment.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Looks like today is decision day.

 

Unless my numbers are off, with Camp the 40 man is at 38. However, we still have a few expendables, Clevenger and Coleman as the obvious ones. Castillo, Brigham, Rusin, and Raley are each candidates as well. Some speculate that Stewart could be too, but I doubt it, and hope not.

 

Right now, Trey McNutt is the one that we really need to protect, regardless of his 2012 performance. I really can't see Villanueva or Whitenack making it through a full season on someones roster. Watkins I'm 50/50 on. Struck I'd like to keep over Coleman if it came down to it.

[davell]

If Villanueva is left off, I can't imagine a team like Houston or Miami not taking him, since they az.re clearly, completely not concerned at all with 2013. Oh, and the roster is at 39 currently. My guess is Coleman, Clevenger, Stewart, and Gutierrez get dropped and Villanueva, Watkins, McNutt, and Struck get kept.

[Guest]

The A's won't be protecting Michael Ynoa, I'd take a run at him if the Cubs plan on tanking again.

[toonsterwu]

If Villanueva is left off, I can't imagine a team like Houston or Miami not taking him, since they az.re clearly, completely not concerned at all with 2013. Oh, and the roster is at 39 currently. My guess is Coleman, Clevenger, Stewart, and Gutierrez get dropped and Villanueva, Watkins, McNutt, and Struck get kept.

 

Houston yes, but why Miami? They traded for Zack Cox last summer. It seems likely they'd give him a chance, and you really wouldn't spend a pick on Villanueva to fill a utility role (and they also have Marwin to fill a utility role).

 

I'm also not completely sold on this idea that Clevenger gets dropped. They need a 3rd catcher on the 40. That said, they did cut Flaherty to replace him with Bianchi last year, so I guess maybe the idea is that they open a space up and fill the 3rd catcher spot later.

 

Going to be interesting to see what they decide. Wouldn't surprise me if a guy like Nick Struck was left exposed.

 

Looking at our roster, I'd trim some of those pitchers off. I honestly don't think anyone of Lendy Castillo/Jaye Chapman/Casey Coleman/Gerardo Concepcion/Carlos Gutierrez/Zach Putnam/Jake Brigham would be losses that I'd be bothered by. That said, realistically, Concepcion probably isn't going anywhere. Still ... I really couldn't see him staying long enough in the bigs next year. I think at least one or two of those could get chopped, if not 3, and that opens up space for arms like Struck/McNutt.

 

Positionally, I wouldn't be surprised if one of Valbuena/Stewart were chopped. If they feel wary about their chances of finding a 3rd baseman, Stewart probably is saved. Valbuena could be cut loss to give Watkins a spot ... but that would leave three of your top MI 40 backup options, Lake/Vitters/Watkins as guys that should start the year in the minors. OF wise, LaHair can go. I could see Campana get knocked off the 40 as well.

[davell]

JC Sulbaran and Marc Krauss so far are my favorites as to who's been left unprotected.

[davell]

The A's won't be protecting Michael Ynoa, I'd take a run at him if the Cubs plan on tanking again.

They just protected him.

[CubsInNC]

Cubs DFA LaHair, designate Gutierrez for assignment, and protect Watkins, McNutt, Villanueva, and Whitenack

[toonsterwu]

Cubs DFA LaHair, designate Gutierrez for assignment, and protect Watkins, McNutt, Villanueva, and Whitenack

 

I'm really not that surprised by the Whitenack addition. I think they probably viewed this year as a mulligan, of sorts, for him.

 

I really talked about Struck a lot last year, but he is what he is, a nice young live arm, but more of a 4/5 starter, and in the pen, it's debatable if he has late inning potential (although you never know).

 

Hoping that a couple of the raw arms make it through Rule 5.

[Rob]

Cubs DFA LaHair, designate Gutierrez for assignment, and protect Watkins, McNutt, Villanueva, and Whitenack

 

Bruce Miles says Gutierrez was outrighted, not DFA'd.

[davell]

So with the Brigham trade, we're at 40. Gotta think we'll see Coleman and a few others gone soon. LaHair? Wow. Hard to believe we couldn't move him at all.

[toonsterwu]

So with the Brigham trade, we're at 40. Gotta think we'll see Coleman and a few others gone soon. LaHair? Wow. Hard to believe we couldn't move him at all.

 

I'm not sure why it's a surprise that LaHair couldn't be moved. He really just couldn't do much offensively. At his age, there are just too many other guys with similar profiles.

 

Japan makes sense for him. He gets to make some dough and play on a regular basis.

 

Whoa, we got Barret Loux for Jacob Brigham? Completely missed that. Pretty good, IMO.

[Rob]

I'm shocked Coleman survived this round of cuts.

[toonsterwu]

I'm shocked Coleman survived this round of cuts.

 

Didn't they keep some guys through the Rule 5 drop date last year and cut them a few days later to open up some spaces? The main thing is protecting the guys they wanted to keep.

 

I'm hoping a couple of the arms make it through Rule 5 and are still in our system next year. Won't be ... hurt ... if we lose some guys, but still. We have a lot of arms that fit the profile of guys that get taken in Rule 5.

[davell]

Best guys available from what I can see(haven't looked hard): P JC Sulbaran, Kyle Lobstein OF Marc Krauss, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Destin Hood. Krauss is the guy I want, I think.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Only Rule 5 potential guy I've seen so far that even remotely catches my eye is Josh Fields:

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/players/fields-josh.htm