Stewart's Crappy Luck

[Sammy Sofa]

nuts and gum, outside of the steroid era, how often has this ever happened? especially when you are coming from colorado. san diego? you may have a point but historically , you have to admit the norm is that your stats go up when you go to colorado and drop when you leave.

 

Wait, what? How often have we seen players leave Colorado and put up better numbers? Colorado can bump up guys' numbers, but you're talking about it like ballplayers there are like Superman getting a suntan. Just because someone doesn't put it together in Colorado doesn't mean they can't have success elsewhere. I mean, Stewart actually had better power numbers AWAY from Coors Field.

 

truthfully, with this team I would rather watch stewart play hard every day and hit 220, than watch rameriz hit 300. with 30 bombs but loaf. his (rameriz) stats might win us 5 games but add years of frustration to our lives

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hwSI4Bvw4O4/T2WIr0NXiXI/AAAAAAAABaQ/p7JZ5rYwpbE/s1600/sigh.jpg

Edited May 22, 2012 by Sammy Sofa

[SouthSideRyan]

Impossible to say before seeing how he turns out this season. Assuming his luck normalizes, I'd say 2-3 seasons.

 

When his luck normalizes what line can I expect? I'm too lazy to check and I think a lot of people here know anyway so I don't mind asking.

 

I do think they should fix the OF and pitching before 3B since Stewart has some shot to be a decent role player in a more talented lineup.

 

he's hit .233 over SIX SEASONS. his best is 259. all of this in the best hitters park in baseball. you know what that tells me? He's a .233 or below hitter! unless he juices or sells his soul a'la joe hardy (ask your dad about that reference)

unless he can play multiple infield positions or outfield-which I am not sure he can, I don;t know how he would be useful to a serious contender

 

Let's go ahead and ignore that he had 491 PAs on a playoff team in 2009.

[Rob]

 

Your tons of stats appear to be batting average and flim-flam.

 

How many times do I have to tell you people to stop using flim-flam. Counting stats are devoid of meaning without context. Use wFF+ and pay attention to mitigating factors like that time he struck out with a runner on third.

[Rob]

 

Your tons of stats appear to be batting average and flim-flam.

 

How many times do I have to tell you people to stop using flim-flam. Counting stats are devoid of meaning without context. Use wFF+ and pay attention to mitigating factors like that time he struck out with a runner on third.

 

Or better yet, skin color and hustle.

[seanimal]

i like the part about how bad he sucks, but if he can suck that bad at multiple positions, well, maybe he might have value

[Sammy Sofa]

i like the part about how bad he sucks, but if he can suck that bad at multiple positions, well, maybe he might have value

 

And apparently it's impossible for him to suck bad enough to be worse than the nightmare that is Aramis Ramirez' laziness.

[Rob]

How can you single out a favorite part? It's all spectacularly stupid.

[SouthSideRyan]

nuts and gum, outside of the steroid era, how often has this ever happened? especially when you are coming from colorado. san diego? you may have a point but historically , you have to admit the norm is that your stats go up when you go to colorado and drop when you leave.

 

Wait, what? How often have we seen players leave Colorado and put up better numbers? Colorado can bump up guys' numbers, but you're talking about it like ballplayers there are like Superman getting a suntan. Just because someone doesn't put it together in Colorado doesn't mean they can't have success elsewhere. I mean, Stewart actually had better power numbers AWAY from Coors Field.

 

truthfully, with this team I would rather watch stewart play hard every day and hit 220, than watch rameriz hit 300. with 30 bombs but loaf. his (rameriz) stats might win us 5 games but add years of frustration to our lives

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hwSI4Bvw4O4/T2WIr0NXiXI/AAAAAAAABaQ/p7JZ5rYwpbE/s1600/sigh.jpg

 

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4e/Meatwad.png/200px-Meatwad.png

[neely crenshaw]

jesus south side, have you looked at his stats?

just because I don't mention by name every stats, doesn't mean they aren't there. I just take for granted someone in a discussion might look at them instead of just say WRONG

 

i would say his 6 years career batting average of .233 with none higher than 259 is a good indicator

his home run totals of 10, 25, 18, and 0 are too.

his never having gotten 100 hits in a season is another

never having 20 doubles in a season is another

with a career obp of .320, a career ops of .740 all in colorado, history tells me there's a pretty good chance the stats will go down outside of colorado. it also tells me that the high end of his possibilities would be hitting 233, with 15-20 hrs, 320 obp, with a .700 ops and there is a better than average chance they'll be lower here.

[neely crenshaw]

nuts and gum, outside of the steroid era, how often has this ever happened? especially when you are coming from colorado. san diego? you may have a point but historically , you have to admit the norm is that your stats go up when you go to colorado and drop when you leave.

 

Wait, what? How often have we seen players leave Colorado and put up better numbers? Colorado can bump up guys' numbers, but you're talking about it like ballplayers there are like Superman getting a suntan. Just because someone doesn't put it together in Colorado doesn't mean they can't have success elsewhere. I mean, Stewart actually had better power numbers AWAY from Coors Field.

 

truthfully, with this team I would rather watch stewart play hard every day and hit 220, than watch rameriz hit 300. with 30 bombs but loaf. his (rameriz) stats might win us 5 games but add years of frustration to our lives

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hwSI4Bvw4O4/T2WIr0NXiXI/AAAAAAAABaQ/p7JZ5rYwpbE/s1600/sigh.jpg

 

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4e/Meatwad.png/200px-Meatwad.png

 

you are talking 5 years in colorado. it's a pretty large indicator. Please start the list of players with better stats after colorado...i'm sure there could be some, but it will pale in comparison to the other way around. It may happen but how can you argue that far more often it goes the other way. far more.

[Sammy Sofa]

Here's what Stewart put up in the only two years where he played anything close to a full season:

 

.242 .329 .454 .783

 

Ideal? No, not at all, but he's shown enough flashes of talent to still be an intriguing reclamation project, and those numbers ideally show that there's something to work with and build on.

[Sammy Sofa]

you are talking 5 years in colorado. it's a pretty large indicator. Please start the list of players with better stats after colorado...i'm sure there could be some, but it will pale in comparison to the other way around. It may happen but how can you argue that far more often it goes the other way. far more.

 

We're not talking 5 years/seasons in Colorado. We're talking 35 games, 81 games, 147 games, 121 games and then 48 games. This is a guy who has had injury and consistency problems, but it's stupid to act like Coors Field is some end-all-be-all metric of success. It's not a lock that players will succeed there and they're not doomed to utter failure if they can't succeed there as hitters.

[Rob]

jesus south side, have you looked at his stats?

just because I don't mention by name every stats, doesn't mean they aren't there. I just take for granted someone in a discussion might look at them instead of just say WRONG

 

i would say his 6 years career batting average of .233 with none higher than 259 is a good indicator

his home run totals of 10, 25, 18, and 0 are too.

his never having gotten 100 hits in a season is another

never having 20 doubles in a season is another

with a career obp of .320, a career ops of .740 all in colorado, history tells me there's a pretty good chance the stats will go down outside of colorado. it also tells me that the high end of his possibilities would be hitting 233, with 15-20 hrs, 320 obp, with a .700 ops and there is a better than average chance they'll be lower here.

 

Please stop talking stats. You don't want to get me started.

[Clem Fandango]

jesus south side, have you looked at his stats?

just because I don't mention by name every stats, doesn't mean they aren't there. I just take for granted someone in a discussion might look at them instead of just say WRONG

 

i would say his 6 years career batting average of .233 with none higher than 259 is a good indicator

his home run totals of 10, 25, 18, and 0 are too.

his never having gotten 100 hits in a season is another

never having 20 doubles in a season is another

with a career obp of .320, a career ops of .740 all in colorado, history tells me there's a pretty good chance the stats will go down outside of colorado. it also tells me that the high end of his possibilities would be hitting 233, with 15-20 hrs, 320 obp, with a .700 ops and there is a better than average chance they'll be lower here.

 

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m08dh3Jf8G1qz6z2wo1_400.gif

[Guest]

truth is even if he hits like he has in may, it's not good. 246 .338 .456 .795

 

NL 3B in 2012: .245/.315/.400/.714

MLB 3B in 2012: .249/.312/.402/.714

 

That .795 OPS Stewart has in May would put him fifth in OPS in MLB out of the 17 qualified 3B in 2012, behind only Wright, Moustakas, Beltre and Cabrera. Guys he would be ahead of include Freese (.787), ARod (.779), Hanley Ramirez (.753), Zimmerman (.697) and Lawrie (.690). It should be noted that, if not for injuries, Stewart would also be behind Longoria and Sandoval.

[hawkeyecub]

truth is even if he hits like he has in may, it's not good. 246 .338 .456 .795

you know who he is at that rate? gordan beckham career=.245 .314 .383 .697 and thats during stewart's hot streak!

 

 

Except for the 100 point OPS difference.

[CubColtPacer]

jesus south side, have you looked at his stats?

just because I don't mention by name every stats, doesn't mean they aren't there. I just take for granted someone in a discussion might look at them instead of just say WRONG

 

i would say his 6 years career batting average of .233 with none higher than 259 is a good indicator

his home run totals of 10, 25, 18, and 0 are too.

his never having gotten 100 hits in a season is another

never having 20 doubles in a season is another

with a career obp of .320, a career ops of .740 all in colorado, history tells me there's a pretty good chance the stats will go down outside of colorado. it also tells me that the high end of his possibilities would be hitting 233, with 15-20 hrs, 320 obp, with a .700 ops and there is a better than average chance they'll be lower here.

 

You are correct that we should be skeptical of guys who rely on their power coming out of Coors Field (although it should be referenced again as somebody brought up that his power has been slightly better on the road than at home for his career, which makes that a lot less worrisome).

 

He's never had a full season of at-bats which is why his counting stats are that low. Is that something to be concerned about? Probably. He has had injury issues. But that's a question of if he can stay healthy, not how good he is when he is on the field.

 

The main reason things like his batting average was so low in Colorado even with decent BABIP's was not because he hit the ball softly. It is because his strikeout rate was so high. In his three seasons with more than 200 AB's he struck out in 30.1% of his PA, 28.1%, and 24.9%. Players who strike out that much are not going to have good averages unless they are prodigious home run hitters, and Stewart is good in that department (very good for the position he plays) but not elite. This year though there's been a huge change. He's at 18.8 percent so far. That's a significant improvement, and one if it continues should make his average go up by quite a bit.

 

His amount of line drives are just below his career average. So he should have a BABIP that is somewhat close to his career average, but it's not. It's much lower. He has also changed many fly balls that he was hitting in previous years into ground balls this year. But that should actually raise his BABIP not lower it (while hurting his power a little). His power is down as expected from not hitting as many fly balls.

 

And home/road splits are very shaky this early in the year, but he's been significantly better on the road. Will his efforts at Wrigley improve when the wind is more in his favor?

 

And as others have stated, 3B average in the majors right now is .250/.312/.403 which is close to what it was last year (.252/.316/.390). As you mentioned, it's not the steroid era anymore, and hitting is down significantly. So the Cubs don't need as good of hitter in order to have a quality player there. And Stewart's defense is seen as above average at third by both scouts and defensive metrics.

 

The main thing though is that Stewart is striking out a lot less than he ever used too. And if you put that many balls in play, some will find holes eventually. Stewart's BABIP right now is .221. Out of the 145 players who had enough at-bats to qualify last year, exactly one hitter had that low of a BABIP last year. So the odds are very much in his favor that it will go up as the year goes on.

 

Can he ever be a great/elite player? Not unless he puts his new strikout rate with the power he had previously, and that isn't very likely. But he can get you to average/above average offense with above average defense, and that's valuable.

[neely crenshaw]

you are using 18 games vs 3 years for beckham, and an entire season for 3b. I'm willing to bet that I can go find an 18 game streak from adam dunne last year that was decent, it certainly wouldn't indicate he was good.

 

over 18 games 100 points of ops 1 homerun.

not too mention that most people think Beckham should be sent down, while because of 18 games you guys want a statute of stewart built outside wrigley. Beckham was a close, local comparison that I chose to illustrate the absurdity of the statements.

rather than just throw out a meaningless stat like OPS (for a small sample, please don't cut that out and use it) look at his game log. In those 18 games, he has 3 hrs, 3 doubles. 5 rbi total, 3 rbi from his extra basehits. we have gone 7-11 as a team including going 2-8 in the last 10.

he has a hr and 2b and 1 rbi in an 8-2, hr and 1 rbi in a 5-1 win, hr,1 rbi in 3-1 win, 2b 0 rbi in 6-4 win, 2b in a loss. that's his hot streak broken down and exactly how many wins did it really effect?

 

now here is an example of how small sample OPS is skewed.

Ian Stewart 26 total bases during the streak, 12 hits. 3 2bs, 3 hrs, (again 5 RBI)...65 plate appearances, 56 at bats

Josh Hamilton 1 game 18 total bases, 5 hits, 1 2b, 4 hrs 8 rbi, 5 plate appearances and at bats

so to match stewart streak, hamilton needs to have 51 at bats, 60 plate appearances, and 8 total bases

so his stats needs to 7 for 56 or .125, 1 2b. 8 walks and 2 hbp or some combo of that.

So outside of his 1 huge game how much would that OPS help his team?

OPS is great stat for a season or even better for a 3-4 year period. In a small sample it just doesn't reflect as accurately. Much like talking about Dejesus having a 40 point lead in OB% over Barney, which if over a season is big but over 40 games translates to being on bases 1.25 times more for every 10 games. yes, dejesus has been on base 5 more times than barney (prorating for same number of at bats)

[Vanilla Ice]

truth is even if he hits like he has in may, it's not good. 246 .338 .456 .795

you know who he is at that rate? gordan beckham career=.245 .314 .383 .697

These two things are not the same.

[Guest]

Stewart's May is not a hot streak. It's actually closer to still being unlucky in terms of balls in play. No one would think anything of Ian Stewart if 2 weeks of 790 OPS was the pinnacle of what we could hope for him. What's being communicated is that his May could very well be the new norm, and that would be one of the 10 best 3B in baseball.

[SouthSideRyan]

[expletive] the statue, I want scientists working around the clock to grant Ian actual immortality.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If anything, I think Stewart's peripherals could support numbers quite a bit better than even his May numbers.

 

His K rate is down to 18.8% this year, and but he hasn't sacrificed his power to get it. The Cubs seem to have been right when they said they thought they could fix a problem with his swing.

 

With that K rate and his other peripherals, I think a line of .260/350/450 is completely, legitimately possible in the long run. Especially the longer he gets away from last year's wrist injury.

[sneakypower]

the BTB xBABIP has his expected BABIP for this season at .328 so far (.244 for '11)

 

it seems like a huge difference (and it ostensibly is), but all that amounts to is 23 of his 104 balls in play going for hits, rather than the roughly 34 hits you'd expect to get on those batted balls, based on LD rate, etc.

 

with a .328 babip, he'd have at the very least a .277/.366/.416 line (the slugging would undoubtedly be higher based on lost doubles)

[Hairyducked Idiot]

With that K rate and his other peripherals, I think a line of .260/350/450 is completely, legitimately possible in the long run.

 

with a .328 babip, he'd have at the very least a .277/.366/.416 line (the slugging would undoubtedly be higher based on lost doubles)

 

:good:

[neely crenshaw]

truth is even if he hits like he has in may, it's not good. 246 .338 .456 .795

 

NL 3B in 2012: .245/.315/.400/.714

MLB 3B in 2012: .249/.312/.402/.714

 

That .795 OPS Stewart has in May would put him fifth in OPS in MLB out of the 17 qualified 3B in 2012, behind only Wright, Moustakas, Beltre and Cabrera. Guys he would be ahead of include Freese (.787), ARod (.779), Hanley Ramirez (.753), Zimmerman (.697) and Lawrie (.690). It should be noted that, if not for injuries, Stewart would also be behind Longoria and Sandoval.

 

how about you compare his year to their years, or his "hot" to their best 18 games streak? I won't do the leg work but I am guessing that guys who are above .700 for 40+ games have an 18 game stretch of much better than their average.

 

here's an extreme example to attempt to illustrate the fallacy of using stewart's 18 games vs a season.

erik aybar has a 7 game split of .455 .455 .682 1.136 which puts him number 1 at shortstop in every single catagory and way above the average for MLB shortstops. Now it clearly doesn't matter that his seasons stat line is .228 .248 .297 .545, your thinking has just annointed erik aybar the number 1 offensive shortstop in the major leagues logic be damned!