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Posted

That's true, but you also need to figure in that he doesn't know the AL hitters and that he will be facing other AL teams with the DH. Everything I've seen makes it sound like he prefers staying in the NL. Of course, I suppose he could change his mind if the RS offered him a big contract extension.

 

If the Red Sox offered him a "big" contract extension, I'd change my mind about how I use my brain to think about things.

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Posted
Carrie Muskat suggests that the hold-up between the Cubs and Dodgers is that the Cubs are holding steady in demanding Zach Lee. http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2012/07/21/721-dodgers-on-hold-re-dempster/

 

It's OK to reach for the stars as long as you grab and asteroid or two on the way down when you miss.

 

You know there isn't some law that requires you to respond to every thought thrown out on this messageboard, right?

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Carrie Muskat suggests that the hold-up between the Cubs and Dodgers is that the Cubs are holding steady in demanding Zach Lee. http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2012/07/21/721-dodgers-on-hold-re-dempster/

 

It's OK to reach for the stars as long as you grab and asteroid or two on the way down when you miss.

 

For the last time, we are not dumping Reed Johnson on a team that calls to inquire about Castro.

As someone who has added him to my ignore list, I encourage you to do so. If everyone ignores him, then nobody will be annoyed by him. He will be the tree falling in the woods with no one around to hear it.

Posted
Carrie Muskat suggests that the hold-up between the Cubs and Dodgers is that the Cubs are holding steady in demanding Zach Lee. http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2012/07/21/721-dodgers-on-hold-re-dempster/

 

It's OK to reach for the stars as long as you grab and asteroid or two on the way down when you miss.

 

For the last time, we are not dumping Reed Johnson on a team that calls to inquire about Castro.

As someone who has added him to my ignore list, I encourage you to do so. If everyone ignores him, then nobody will be annoyed by him. He will be the tree falling in the woods with no one around to hear it.

 

When I ignore somebody I ignore them. That's more the opposite of ignoring.

Provisional Member
Posted
so hello, step one, i have pre-emptively ignored slide castro slide. but. if the dodgers are now focused on garza i think lee.. plus one of the realistic dempster targets is a must, otherwise i'd still like to resign, barring another teams best offer. but if youre theo/hoyer do you change focus from dempster to garza? or does the tricep keep the dempster window priority one?
Old-Timey Member
Posted
so hello, step one, i have pre-emptively ignored slide castro slide. but. if the dodgers are now focused on garza i think lee.. plus one of the realistic dempster targets is a must, otherwise i'd still like to resign, barring another teams best offer. but if youre theo/hoyer do you change focus from dempster to garza? or does the tricep keep the dempster window priority one?

Congrats

Others here will be able to give you a better gauge on the return for Demp/Garza that I ever could

Posted
@Kevin_Goldstein

 

Exec on Dempster delays: "As a rental, they aren't going to get tremendous value for him and that's not an easy realization on their end."

Posted
@Kevin_Goldstein

 

Exec on Dempster delays: "As a rental, they aren't going to get tremendous value for him and that's not an easy realization on their end."

 

 

I'm surprised Colletti gives quotes to Goldstein.

Posted
@Kevin_Goldstein

 

Exec on Dempster delays: "As a rental, they aren't going to get tremendous value for him and that's not an easy realization on their end."

Seemes like he'd be worth a top 10 type talent. If he stays and we offer him whatever it is we have to offer him on a 1 year deal and he goes elsewhere where he's probably going to get a multi year offer we get a comp pick next year. If we can't get at least that type of talent back, may as well just keep him.

Posted
The more I've thought about the new CBA, the more I realize no team would sign him and lose their 1st round pick. It blows their entire draft budget, in most cases. Yeah, it's worth it, for a Hamels, Greinke, Hamilton, maybe a few others, but not for a guy you're only giving a 2-3 year deal to. My guess is the new qualifying offer in baseball becomes a version of the NFL's franchise tag. I don't see a team willing to give up half their draft budget(fairly close for teams picking outside the top 10) to sign an Annibal Sanchez type very often. If Miami offers the qualifier, it may wind up scaring teams into looking for other options. I'm not sure whether the player has to sign the tender by a certain date, or if the player waits until a certain date, the qualifier gets lifted, but if there's no date on either of those things, then I see it becoming a franchise tag basically. A team may punt their draft on occasion, but my guess is we'll see far less than 10 teams do it with this class.
Posted

Seemes like he'd be worth a top 10 type talent. If he stays and we offer him whatever it is we have to offer him on a 1 year deal and he goes elsewhere where he's probably going to get a multi year offer we get a comp pick next year. If we can't get at least that type of talent back, may as well just keep him.

 

Whoever signs him would forfeit a first-rounder or top-10 second rounder. Would you forfeit a high pick to sign a late-30s Ryan Dempster to a multi-year deal?

 

I think if we offer him arbitration, there's a very good chance he accepts.

 

Edit: Davell beat me to it and said it better.

Posted
The more I've thought about the new CBA, the more I realize no team would sign him and lose their 1st round pick. It blows their entire draft budget, in most cases. Yeah, it's worth it, for a Hamels, Greinke, Hamilton, maybe a few others, but not for a guy you're only giving a 2-3 year deal to. My guess is the new qualifying offer in baseball becomes a version of the NFL's franchise tag. I don't see a team willing to give up half their draft budget(fairly close for teams picking outside the top 10) to sign an Annibal Sanchez type very often. If Miami offers the qualifier, it may wind up scaring teams into looking for other options. I'm not sure whether the player has to sign the tender by a certain date, or if the player waits until a certain date, the qualifier gets lifted, but if there's no date on either of those things, then I see it becoming a franchise tag basically. A team may punt their draft on occasion, but my guess is we'll see far less than 10 teams do it with this class.

Wait, so what you spend in FA is tied to your draft budget now?

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Guests
Posted
I know if a team trades for a guy they aren't eligible to get a compensation pick for losing a guy they make a qualifying offer to, but does the signing team still forfeit a pick in that case? If that signing team does still forfeit the pick, then that would seem to make Dempster's value even greater.
Posted
The more I've thought about the new CBA, the more I realize no team would sign him and lose their 1st round pick. It blows their entire draft budget, in most cases. Yeah, it's worth it, for a Hamels, Greinke, Hamilton, maybe a few others, but not for a guy you're only giving a 2-3 year deal to. My guess is the new qualifying offer in baseball becomes a version of the NFL's franchise tag. I don't see a team willing to give up half their draft budget(fairly close for teams picking outside the top 10) to sign an Annibal Sanchez type very often. If Miami offers the qualifier, it may wind up scaring teams into looking for other options. I'm not sure whether the player has to sign the tender by a certain date, or if the player waits until a certain date, the qualifier gets lifted, but if there's no date on either of those things, then I see it becoming a franchise tag basically. A team may punt their draft on occasion, but my guess is we'll see far less than 10 teams do it with this class.

Wait, so what you spend in FA is tied to your draft budget now?

 

No. He's saying that they'd lose their first-round pick and the draft pool that goes with it.

Posted
I know if a team trades for a guy they aren't eligible to get a compensation pick for losing a guy they make a qualifying offer to, but does the signing team still forfeit a pick in that case? If that signing team does still forfeit the pick, then that would seem to make Dempster's value even greater.

I'm not totally sure what you're saying. But I don't think the team that conceivably trades for Dempster, has the ability to make the qualifying offer. Yeah, they can offer him a one year, 12.5 mill contract, if they choose to. But I wouldn't think it counts as a qualifier, so basically if Demp gets dealt, it's good for him in that way: Nobody HAS to be put in a position of losing draft picks or budget and he'll get multiyear offers because of that.

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Guests
Posted
I know if a team trades for a guy they aren't eligible to get a compensation pick for losing a guy they make a qualifying offer to, but does the signing team still forfeit a pick in that case? If that signing team does still forfeit the pick, then that would seem to make Dempster's value even greater.

I'm not totally sure what you're saying. But I don't think the team that conceivably trades for Dempster, has the ability to make the qualifying offer. Yeah, they can offer him a one year, 12.5 mill contract, if they choose to. But I wouldn't think it counts as a qualifier, so basically if Demp gets dealt, it's good for him in that way: Nobody HAS to be put in a position of losing draft picks or budget and he'll get multiyear offers because of that.

 

You got what I'm saying. That makes sense, and if I had to guess I would assume that's the case, but a brief search didn't tell me for certain.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
The more I've thought about the new CBA, the more I realize no team would sign him and lose their 1st round pick. It blows their entire draft budget, in most cases. Yeah, it's worth it, for a Hamels, Greinke, Hamilton, maybe a few others, but not for a guy you're only giving a 2-3 year deal to. My guess is the new qualifying offer in baseball becomes a version of the NFL's franchise tag. I don't see a team willing to give up half their draft budget(fairly close for teams picking outside the top 10) to sign an Annibal Sanchez type very often. If Miami offers the qualifier, it may wind up scaring teams into looking for other options. I'm not sure whether the player has to sign the tender by a certain date, or if the player waits until a certain date, the qualifier gets lifted, but if there's no date on either of those things, then I see it becoming a franchise tag basically. A team may punt their draft on occasion, but my guess is we'll see far less than 10 teams do it with this class.

 

I had a similar thought about this earlier. This appears to be an unintended consequence of the new CBA. A FA like Dempster, if he doesn't get traded, is going to get a 1 year qualifying offer from the Cubs as long as he can pitch well instead of getting one last 3 year deal on the FA market. So it's almost like being an arbitration eligible player, going year to year with the same team as long as the performance is there, eventually being non-tendered - restricting movement of middle tier free agents.

Posted

Nothing really new..

 

New frontrunner for Dempster

 

 

08:14 AM ET 07.23 | Ryan Dempster remains a hot topic on the trade market. [Dempster's] first choice, the Los Angeles Dodgers, have cooled on trading for him, creating an opening for his second choice, the Atlanta Braves. The Braves remain firmly in the mix for Dempster, though no deal was close as of late Sunday afternoon. ... Two other teams interested in Dempster -- the Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals -- share the same reservations as the Dodgers about parting with better prospects for a player who is a free agent at the end of the season. Dempster's preference is to remain in the National League. A poor outing by right-hander Jair Jurrjens against the Nationals on Sunday might only have reinforced the Braves' desire to trade for a quality starter.

 

FOX Sports

Posted

Why not just hold on to Dempster and take the draft picks at the end of the year? Its apparent Theo and co. are not enamored with any of the prospects being offered.

 

Or are they worried Dempster would accept the arbitration offer?

Posted
Why not just hold on to Dempster and take the draft picks at the end of the year? Its apparent Theo and co. are not enamored with any of the prospects being offered.

 

Or are they worried Dempster would accept the arbitration offer?

 

There's probably a very good chance that he would.

Posted
if they're not going to get a good value for him then some team in contention can find that 2.0 extra WAR somewhere else during the stretch run in a tight penant race.

 

This is what I've been thinking. Years of control are good and I get why they're so valued, but it seems like productivity and talent are being pushed to the side more often than it seems prudent to me. Yes Demp only has half a season of control left, but he's a really good pitcher - probably the best on the market if Hamels/Greinke/Garza aren't dealt - who would help a contender greatly down the stretch. That should be worth a lot.

Posted
I initially thought Dempster would turn down the qualifying offer easily, but now thinking about the fact that teams will lose their highest non-protected pick to sign Dempster makes it really unlikely that a team will offer that multiyear deal that I thought Dempster would get.

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