Cole Hamels

[Guest]

I don't know. What I do know, is that "out of money" isn't on the list of reasons that Hamels might not be a Cub.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm sorry I ever responded. Nobody said, HAMELS IS OURS ALL OURS!!! But to say you doubt we can spend as much on him as other teams is Kyle level asshattery

[TruffleShuffle]

i'd put them at like 10-15%, but that's only because ruben amaro jr is crazy enough to sink $100m into three pitchers (lee, halladay, hamels) and a declining hitter (howard). plus hamels is a big SoCal guy, so i could see him going the cj wilson route and taking less to play near home. i expect the cubs' payroll to have less than 0% impact on whether or not sign hamels.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Okay, so what would people put the odds on the Cubs signing Hamels at? Right now?

 

20% just because. Don't really see him giving a crap about playing in Cali unless Cali pays up.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm sorry I ever responded. Nobody said, HAMELS IS OURS ALL OURS!!! But to say you doubt we can spend as much on him as other teams is Kyle level asshattery

 

What I actually said was "I have trouble seeing the Cubs outbidding..."

 

On a combination of motivation and money.

 

Yes, we can play the "what if they don't sign any other upgrades and pool all their money into the best available FAs" what-if game, but that never happens.

 

Doing some very rough calculations, and assuming Soto is jettisoned, they'll have about $65 million committed next season after arbitration awards.

 

They'll need ... well, I guess they won't need much.

 

Okay, maybe this is more plausible than I thought.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I hadn't really thought through how many positions we could plausibly stand pat on in 2013.

 

I'm not saying they are all filled by great players and we couldn't find upgrades, but we could reasonably not make a change at all eight positions and at least four starters.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Okay, so what would people put the odds on the Cubs signing Hamels at? Right now?

 

only CC can answer that question.

 

seriously though, The Cubs probably have similar chance to any team willing to spend the money. The Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers, Mariners, and every other team with money is going to have interest. There's no reason for the Cubs not to be in the mix as well. A lot of people seem to think that since we didn't make a serious move for Fielder or Pujols we're not going to spend money ever again. We didn't put together a front office dream team to play poker and turn The Cubs into the Padres.

[Guest]

Okay, so what would people put the odds on the Cubs signing Hamels at? Right now?

Where is CC with the definitive answer?

[C.C.]

Okay, so what would people put the odds on the Cubs signing Hamels at? Right now?

 

10%. Sure, they'll throw in their hat into the ring for PR, but of course come up 20-30 million and two year's short. They aren't going to sign Hamels.

[Clem Fandango]

Okay, so what would people put the odds on the Cubs signing Hamels at? Right now?

 

10%. Sure, they'll throw in their hat into the ring for PR, but of course come up 20-30 million and two year's short. They aren't going to sign Hamels.

 

I actually tend to agree with you there. I just don't see Ruben Amaro letting him go, and I see him bidding against himself and driving the price for elite FA pitching through the roof in the process. I wouldn't be surprised if the Phillies give him a contract that matches/exceeds Sabathia's/Lee's.

[SouthSideRyan]

Okay, so what would people put the odds on the Cubs signing Hamels at? Right now?

 

10%. Sure, they'll throw in their hat into the ring for PR, but of course come up 20-30 million and two year's short. They aren't going to sign Hamels.

 

I actually tend to agree with you there. I just don't see Ruben Amaro letting him go, and I see him bidding against himself and driving the price for elite FA pitching through the roof in the process. I wouldn't be surprised if the Phillies give him a contract that matches/exceeds Sabathia's/Lee's.

 

How high do you think the Phillies payroll is going to be?

[Clem Fandango]

Okay, so what would people put the odds on the Cubs signing Hamels at? Right now?

 

10%. Sure, they'll throw in their hat into the ring for PR, but of course come up 20-30 million and two year's short. They aren't going to sign Hamels.

 

I actually tend to agree with you there. I just don't see Ruben Amaro letting him go, and I see him bidding against himself and driving the price for elite FA pitching through the roof in the process. I wouldn't be surprised if the Phillies give him a contract that matches/exceeds Sabathia's/Lee's.

 

How high do you think the Phillies payroll is going to be?

 

They've got several contracts coming off the books this year and next year (Blanton, Victorino, Utley, Polanco, Ruiz, Kendrick, Contreras, etc). Setting it up to be backloaded would work easily for them, especially since if they decide to resign any of those guys they will likely sign for less than (or equal to) what they're making now. None of those guys are going to get a monumental raise, and some will probably be let go and filled internally. Hamels is already making $15 million this year... they can afford that again easily if they let Blanton and his $8.5 million contract walk. Or Victorino and his $9.5 million.

 

They can afford him

[SouthSideRyan]

When you figure in Pence's arb award, the Phillies have ~125M tied up while losing their LF, CF, 3B, C, and 2 starting pitchers. All while paying corpses to play the right isde of the infield.

[TruffleShuffle]

When you figure in Pence's arb award, the Phillies have ~125M tied up while losing their LF, CF, 3B, C, and 2 starting pitchers. All while paying corpses to play the right isde of the infield.

 

i don't think amaro thinks that way though. he'd just sign him for like $20m a year and 7 years, then worry about the repercussions later.

[SouthSideRyan]

When you figure in Pence's arb award, the Phillies have ~125M tied up while losing their LF, CF, 3B, C, and 2 starting pitchers. All while paying corpses to play the right isde of the infield.

 

i don't think amaro thinks that way though. he'd just sign him for like $20m a year and 7 years, then worry about the repercussions later.

 

Like the repercussions of the owner telling him no, I'm not [expletive] spending 200M so you can put out the worst offense in baseball again?

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I don't see him going to the AL. Just a weird hunch so take it for the nothing most/all would anyway...I know I know something about money is the one and only or however it gets put...

[Clem Fandango]

According to NBC Philadelphia's Howard Eskin, Cole Hamels has told the Phillies he wants a seven-year deal.

And if the Phillies aren't willing to give a contract of that length to Hamels, he will probably be able to find it elsewhere. The 28-year-old impending free agent left-hander has registered a sparkling 2.28 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 49/9 K/BB ratio across 47 1/3 innings this season. He earned Cy Young Award votes in 2011 after posting a 2.79 ERA and 194/44 K/BB ratio in 216 frames.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I'd try to get 6, wouldn't cry over 7. I'm a big Hamels fan, if you can't tell. Followed him since he was the kid who broke his arm before the draft somehow involving a jump and a pool. He and Kazmir were the big lefties in the draft, and that changeup was dirty even then.

 

It's his out pitch being a changeup that makes me comfortable btw. I consider him an elite talent.

[Cubswin11]

I'd try to get 6, wouldn't cry over 7. I'm a big Hamels fan, if you can't tell. Followed him since he was the kid who broke his arm before the draft somehow involving a jump and a pool. He and Kazmir were the big lefties in the draft, and that changeup was dirty even then.

 

It's his out pitch being a changeup that makes me comfortable btw. I consider him an elite talent.

So better than a high end #3 on a contender?

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I'd try to get 6, wouldn't cry over 7. I'm a big Hamels fan, if you can't tell. Followed him since he was the kid who broke his arm before the draft somehow involving a jump and a pool. He and Kazmir were the big lefties in the draft, and that changeup was dirty even then.

 

It's his out pitch being a changeup that makes me comfortable btw. I consider him an elite talent.

So better than a high end #3 on a contender?

 

More like the stand alone ace on a WS winner, who probably wont be alone. OR just a slight notch (little sliver) over Anibal Sanchez.

[davell]

With the Dodgers going to be involved and wanting to make their "splash", I bet we're talking 7/161 or something like that. With multiple teams bidding, it could even drive the damn years up to 8. I like him a lot, I guess we've cleared all the payroll we need to to, to make some moves like this too, so if he's who we want, go get him. I'm tired of bitching about the whole "too much money" crap. All FA are going to be paid too much, it's why they elected to be FA. But, I think our entire interest in him is resting on how well Shark does the rest of this season. If he is what he's been, a top 3 of those guys would obviously be pretty damn good.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Dodgers already made a big splash by locking up Kemp for a similar price...their next one could be anything from dumping a ton of money on a player to firing their Hendry-esque GM.

 

I will also say this...Hamels might not like playing second fiddle, yet again, to another elite arm (this one half a decade younger than him). I think he wants to lead his own staff, and it's an advantage to the Cubs that THEIR ace is a peer (another late 20's hothead) rather than an elder or a younger superstar. Just a guess...hypothesis...idea....theory....bs thing I just made up.

 

Also think 7/161 is pushing it anyway. He'll get a lot but I'm more willing to guess on years than dollars. Don't think he gets 8, but not a number I'm afraid of either. Gotta pay to play in FA folks...have to understand that...elite players with top physical talent and stats are the ones to do it on. It's been said already but money is not likely to be the reason the Cubs will lose out on Hamels unless the bidding gets absolutely ridiculous.

[davell]

I'm more worried about Hamels being from California, I guess than you are. I don't think having Kershaw is going to hurt the Dodgers chances personally.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I'm more worried about Hamels being from California, I guess than you are. I don't think having Kershaw is going to hurt the Dodgers chances personally.

 

I think he has enough money to make it to Cali whenever he wants without having to spend all his time there. I also think Kershaw is a bigger factor than you make it. One because Kershaw has to be paid at some point himself as HE'S the guy over there and two because Hamels has spent the past two-three years in the shadow of a more popular ace or two.

 

The thing about guys who are really, really great at what they do is that they tend to want people to know it. Cubs have a ton of ways to feed that ego what with cash and the chance to be the ace of a Cubs team that finally ends the drought.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

More fodder...The last time Hamels won the WS he was by far the best pitcher on the staff. The gap would close with Garza, but that just means a better rotation behind him.