How Far Are the Cubs From a NL Central Crown?

[biittner77]

I'd bet Cubs management is a lot more optimistic than most are here. The plan, as they see it, is to tread water developing players this season, be in the mix for the division next year and be the favorite in 2014. The pitching this year should be good enough to take them as far as their offense can go. How far that is depends on a lot of factors already mentioned.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'd bet Cubs management is a lot more optimistic than most are here. The plan, as they see it, is to tread water developing players this season, be in the mix for the division next year and be the favorite in 2014. The pitching this year should be good enough to take them as far as their offense can go. How far that is depends on a lot of factors already mentioned.

 

That is a completely meaningless statement.

[biittner77]

I'd bet Cubs management is a lot more optimistic than most are here. The plan, as they see it, is to tread water developing players this season, be in the mix for the division next year and be the favorite in 2014. The pitching this year should be good enough to take them as far as their offense can go. How far that is depends on a lot of factors already mentioned.

 

That is a completely meaningless statement.

 

It means that if they get any offense at all, the pitching will be good enough to at least threaten .500 which might be good enough for 2nd place. I didn't realize that was so hard to figure out. Sorry.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'd bet Cubs management is a lot more optimistic than most are here. The plan, as they see it, is to tread water developing players this season, be in the mix for the division next year and be the favorite in 2014. The pitching this year should be good enough to take them as far as their offense can go. How far that is depends on a lot of factors already mentioned.

 

That is a completely meaningless statement.

 

It means that if they get any offense at all, the pitching will be good enough to at least threaten .500 which might be good enough for 2nd place. I didn't realize that was so hard to figure out. Sorry.

 

It's not hard to figure out, it's meaningless. What is "any offense at all" anyway? The pitching shouldn't kill them, but it's not good enough to cover for a below average offense. It's not like they are locked into some level of pitching. There is no "should". It's a pretty wide margin of potential results out of that group. They've got several guys who could easily bomb out. They have a handful of guys who could be really good. The entire staff is built around the idea of guys being better than what they were last year. A noble idea, but hardly a lock for anything.

[Guest]

The Cubs had one of the worst pitching staff in baseball last year. They subtracted Z and added Volstead. They are auditioning for two spots in the rotation and three in the pen. I don't see how they are going to move many spots with what they have and that's if Marmol can still throw a slider.

[Guest]

The Cubs had one of the worst pitching staff in baseball last year. They subtracted Z and added Volstead. They are auditioning for two spots in the rotation and three in the pen. I don't see how they are going to move many spots with what they have and that's if Marmol can still throw a slider.

 

 

lol

[CubColtPacer]

The Cubs had one of the worst pitching staff in baseball last year. They subtracted Z and added Volstead. They are auditioning for two spots in the rotation and three in the pen. I don't see how they are going to move many spots with what they have and that's if Marmol can still throw a slider.

 

They added Volstad, Maholm, and possibly Wood. That could be over half the rotation.

 

There are three big reasons the rotation will be quite a bit better than last year.

 

First is the depth. 49 starts combined last year between pitchers that people knew were not major league caliber starters and proved that last year: Russell, Lopez, Ortiz, Coleman, and Davis. This year, unless you think Samardzija will crash and burn miserably, the number of starts from pitchers like that should be under 10. That's a whole season's worth of starts from one starter plus a little bit.

 

Second is that of the pitchers remaining, based on past history and peripherals Dempster and Wells have more room to go up than down while only Garza has more room to go down than up. Maholm and Volstad don't have huge hurdles to cross to be equal or better than Z and Wells were last year. That leaves Samardzija/Wood to replace all the horrible starters the Cubs threw out last year.

 

Third is the defense. The Cubs made two defensive upgrades (3B and RF) with only one downgrade (1B). They have two upgrades that will likely come up midseason (CF, 1B). Byrd should continue to decline defensively in CF, while Castro will likely improve at SS. Overall, the defense should be better, especially in the second half of the year. That will help the rotation, especially the pitchers without huge strikeout rates.

 

Could the bullpen be bad? Absolutely. It should be better when the starting pitching goes deeper in games which will test the middle relief less, but they also have downside risk especially if Samardzija moves to the rotation. That one is a lot harder to project than the rotation though because of the few innings and the rotating cast that will likely be in the bullpen this year.

[weis21]

Excellent post CCP. I think with the change in philosophy and the increase in pitching consistency and defense, the cubs will hover somewhere near the .500 range for the most part. Not good enough to challenge for a playoff spot, but nonetheless interesting. Given the spike in MiLB talent (with or without Soler), it's more than enough to keep me watching.

 

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[seanimal]

The Cubs had one of the worst pitching staff in baseball last year. They subtracted Z and added Volstead. They are auditioning for two spots in the rotation and three in the pen. I don't see how they are going to move many spots with what they have and that's if Marmol can still throw a slider.

 

at least they got lahair

[Backtobanks]

The Cubs had one of the worst pitching staff in baseball last year. They subtracted Z and added Volstead. They are auditioning for two spots in the rotation and three in the pen. I don't see how they are going to move many spots with what they have and that's if Marmol can still throw a slider.

 

They added Volstad, Maholm, and possibly Wood. That could be over half the rotation.

 

There are three big reasons the rotation will be quite a bit better than last year.

 

First is the depth. 49 starts combined last year between pitchers that people knew were not major league caliber starters and proved that last year: Russell, Lopez, Ortiz, Coleman, and Davis. This year, unless you think Samardzija will crash and burn miserably, the number of starts from pitchers like that should be under 10. That's a whole season's worth of starts from one starter plus a little bit.

 

Second is that of the pitchers remaining, based on past history and peripherals Dempster and Wells have more room to go up than down while only Garza has more room to go down than up. Maholm and Volstad don't have huge hurdles to cross to be equal or better than Z and Wells were last year. That leaves Samardzija/Wood to replace all the horrible starters the Cubs threw out last year.

 

Third is the defense. The Cubs made two defensive upgrades (3B and RF) with only one downgrade (1B). They have two upgrades that will likely come up midseason (CF, 1B). Byrd should continue to decline defensively in CF, while Castro will likely improve at SS. Overall, the defense should be better, especially in the second half of the year. That will help the rotation, especially the pitchers without huge strikeout rates.

 

Could the bullpen be bad? Absolutely. It should be better when the starting pitching goes deeper in games which will test the middle relief less, but they also have downside risk especially if Samardzija moves to the rotation. That one is a lot harder to project than the rotation though because of the few innings and the rotating cast that will likely be in the bullpen this year.

 

The big question is whether the pitching improvement is good enough to translate into a better record with a terrible offense. If our offense scores 2-4 runs per game, can the improved BOR guys pitch well enough to win? Obviously, we will feel better for the future if Samardzija, Volstead, and Wood show something, but results (W/L record) might not come around until we get some offensive help.

[Soul]

Excellent post CCP. I think with the change in philosophy and the increase in pitching consistency and defense, the cubs will hover somewhere near the .500 range for the most part. Not good enough to challenge for a playoff spot, but nonetheless interesting. Given the spike in MiLB talent (with or without Soler), it's more than enough to keep me watching.

 

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Maybe this is a good year to hop in the car and visit our MiLB teams.

 

I have no clue what is going to happen this year @ Wrigley, and really no expectations.

[jersey cubs fan]

Excellent post CCP. I think with the change in philosophy and the increase in pitching consistency and defense, the cubs will hover somewhere near the .500 range for the most part. Not good enough to challenge for a playoff spot, but nonetheless interesting. Given the spike in MiLB talent (with or without Soler), it's more than enough to keep me watching.

 

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If they can hover near the .500 range for the most part they will be challenging for a playoff spot.

[jersey cubs fan]

Second is that of the pitchers remaining, based on past history and peripherals Dempster and Wells have more room to go up than down while only Garza has more room to go down than up.

 

While they may "have room" that doesn't mean anything with regards to how they can be expected to perform this year.

 

Third is the defense. The Cubs made two defensive upgrades (3B and RF) with only one downgrade (1B). They have two upgrades that will likely come up midseason (CF, 1B). Byrd should continue to decline defensively in CF, while Castro will likely improve at SS. Overall, the defense should be better, especially in the second half of the year. That will help the rotation, especially the pitchers without huge strikeout rates.

 

You are making a heck of a lot of assumptions about the defense that I do not think is justified. They don't even have a real/healthy 3B on the roster.

[Guest]

They're going to have three guys on the roster whose natural position is third base, and Stewart is a good one that isn't missing any time.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They're going to have three guys on the roster whose natural position is third base, and Stewart is a good one that isn't missing any time.

 

And all three are better than last year's third baseman.

[Crack Wilson]

The Cubs are closer than you think. Removed from the equasion: Fielder, Pujols/LaRussa, Carpenter and Madsen. (and a quite possibly deminished Braun)

 

Not saying the Cubs win it, but there is reason to believe that thay can make it interesting. Will you settle for "interesting"?

 

edit: Out of curiosity I looked up Braun. He is batting .095 :wink:

[dew1679666265]

The Cubs are closer than you think. Removed from the equasion: Fielder, Pujols/LaRussa, Carpenter and Madsen. (and a quite possibly deminished Braun)

 

This is the #1 reason I'm frustrated by the Cubs putting no effort into winning this season (and maybe next as well). This is an incredibly winnable division before all the injuries and now it could be feasible for a barely greater than .500 team (85 wins?) to take the division. We hardly had to sell out the future to give ourselves a fighter's chance this year.

[davell]

If we're hanging around, we can buy, instead of sell. May very well be the case. But, I like the fact they've stuck to their guns about not compromising the future for the present. I know it's possible to have put a better team on the field in 2012, but they want to put a perennial 90 win team out there and if they think it's better to build this way instead of adding longterm commitments immediately, I trust them.

[dew1679666265]

If we're hanging around, we can buy, instead of sell. May very well be the case. But, I like the fact they've stuck to their guns about not compromising the future for the present. I know it's possible to have put a better team on the field in 2012, but they want to put a perennial 90 win team out there and if they think it's better to build this way instead of adding longterm commitments immediately, I trust them.

 

Even in this awful division I doubt we'll be hanging around by the ASB, unless we get really, really lucky with a few guys.

 

We've had this debate before, but I just don't see why a perennial 90-win team and fielding a competitive team this year is an either/or proposition. You can do both. I have no doubt this plan will work, I just don't see how it was the optimal plan. Especially now that the Cards and Reds have taken a couple of pretty big blows.

[Backtobanks]

If we're hanging around, we can buy, instead of sell. May very well be the case. But, I like the fact they've stuck to their guns about not compromising the future for the present. I know it's possible to have put a better team on the field in 2012, but they want to put a perennial 90 win team out there and if they think it's better to build this way instead of adding longterm commitments immediately, I trust them.

 

Even in this awful division I doubt we'll be hanging around by the ASB, unless we get really, really lucky with a few guys.

 

We've had this debate before, but I just don't see why a perennial 90-win team and fielding a competitive team this year is an either/or proposition. You can do both. I have no doubt this plan will work, I just don't see how it was the optimal plan. Especially now that the Cards and Reds have taken a couple of pretty big blows.

 

I've agreed with you everytime you've made this point and I agree with you now. I'm disappointed not only that we're blowing off this year, but also giving the other teams time to reload by the time we're ready to compete. Also, we're coming off a winter where the Red Sox and Yankees pretty much stayed out of the free agent market, something that probably won't happen when we need to go after a FA or 2.

[Elrhino]

I keep thinking the age of last year's top end free agents was a problem, which is why Theo kept repeating that he was looking to add free agents in their prime years. Especially if you were skeptical of Pujols actual age. Beltran, Aramis, Rollins, Cuddyer, etc. were all in or approaching their mid-30s. Reyes and Fielder were the only high end free agents in their primes, and they both carried unique injury/body type issues.

[treebird]

I keep thinking the age of last year's top end free agents was a problem, which is why Theo kept repeating that he was looking to add free agents in their prime years. Especially if you were skeptical of Pujols actual age. Beltran, Aramis, Rollins, Cuddyer, etc. were all in or approaching their mid-30s. Reyes and Fielder were the only high end free agents in their primes, and they both carried unique injury/body type issues.

 

hopefully next year all the free agents are like 23

[jersey cubs fan]

I keep thinking the age of last year's top end free agents was a problem, which is why Theo kept repeating that he was looking to add free agents in their prime years. Especially if you were skeptical of Pujols actual age. Beltran, Aramis, Rollins, Cuddyer, etc. were all in or approaching their mid-30s. Reyes and Fielder were the only high end free agents in their primes, and they both carried unique injury/body type issues.

 

hopefully next year all the free agents are like 23

 

But they won't have a long enough proven track record to justify signing. All free agents should be 25.5 and only sign 4 year contracts.

[Guest]

I keep thinking the age of last year's top end free agents was a problem, which is why Theo kept repeating that he was looking to add free agents in their prime years. Especially if you were skeptical of Pujols actual age. Beltran, Aramis, Rollins, Cuddyer, etc. were all in or approaching their mid-30s. Reyes and Fielder were the only high end free agents in their primes, and they both carried unique injury/body type issues.

 

Unfortunately, that's how old most free agents are. If anything, it's probably unusual that two players of the quality and age of Reyes and Fielder come available in the same offseason. Look at this coming offseason, everyone that's worth anything is either turning 30 or over 30.

[NeifiIsMyHomeBoy]

If we're hanging around, we can buy, instead of sell. May very well be the case. But, I like the fact they've stuck to their guns about not compromising the future for the present. I know it's possible to have put a better team on the field in 2012, but they want to put a perennial 90 win team out there and if they think it's better to build this way instead of adding longterm commitments immediately, I trust them.

 

Even in this awful division I doubt we'll be hanging around by the ASB, unless we get really, really lucky with a few guys.

 

We've had this debate before, but I just don't see why a perennial 90-win team and fielding a competitive team this year is an either/or proposition. You can do both. I have no doubt this plan will work, I just don't see how it was the optimal plan. Especially now that the Cards and Reds have taken a couple of pretty big blows.

 

I've agreed with you everytime you've made this point and I agree with you now. I'm disappointed not only that we're blowing off this year, but also giving the other teams time to reload by the time we're ready to compete. Also, we're coming off a winter where the Red Sox and Yankees pretty much stayed out of the free agent market, something that probably won't happen when we need to go after a FA or 2.

 

With the exception of a few pieces, total roster turnover is necessary. There are too many holes right now, and we don't have the resources available to compete at a high level right now by spending. Prince Fielder is not going to make you a contender five years from now, he's a right now sort of signing. You only make that kind of signing if you're close enough where you think it puts you over the top, not if you think it will put you into contention.