NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2012

bukie · February 27, 2012

It's that time of year again. Time for the 8th (!) annual mock tournament selection committee, during which we'll do a mock version of the tournament selection process. Anyone is free to participate if they are able, but please make sure you'll be able to participate regularly between Wednesday and Sunday of next week (during the actual selection process), or at the very least be able to submit 1-3 lists of teams per day during that period. The actual committee consists of 10 members, so if we can get close to that number, the process will more closely resemble reality (rather than the combined feelings of a couple folks).

To participate, by midnight (CST) Tuesday, March 6, send (PM) me 4 things:

1) Your favorite team (the team you'll "represent"). During the selection process, you will not be allowed to include this team in any lists, to maintain as much of a sense of fairness as possible. This mirrors the real committee, as a committee member may not be involved in any discussion for a team in his conference (we'd do that here, but 95% of the populace is Big Ten, so nobody would ever be able to discuss them)

2) A list of cold, hard locks for the tournament, no further discussion needed, no matter what they do in the remainder of their games. This can be any number of teams up to a max of 37 (there are 37 at-large bids this year, no more than that can be locks, right?)

3) A list of teams that deserve consideration for the tournament, besides the locks.

4) A list of your top 16 teams, in order (not including the team you represent, obv)

Some good resources:

Pomeroy ratings

Sagarin ratings

RPI

Basketball State (costs money after a few page views, but tons of info)

Basketball Prospectus

The committee:

bukie - Illinois

SouthSideRyan - Illinois

Transmogrified Tiger - Missouri

Formerly Snayke - St. Louis

Andy - Notre Dame

Vanilla Ice - UNC

UMFan - Michigan

Current status:

http://i.imgur.com/b809n.png

Completed S-Curve:

1. Kentucky

2. Syracuse

3. North Carolina

4. Michigan State (Big Ten)

5. Kansas

6. Ohio State

7. Missouri (Big 12)

8. Duke

9. Marquette

10. Baylor

11. Michigan

12. Wisconsin

13. Indiana

14. Georgetown

15. Wichita State

16. Louisville (Big East)

17. Florida State (ACC)

18. Temple

19. UNLV

20. Creighton (MVC)

21. Florida

22. Vanderbilt (SEC)

23. Murray State (OVC)

24. St Mary's (WCC)

25. Kansas State

26. Cincinnati

27. Memphis (C-USA)

28. Iowa State

29. Gonzaga

30. New Mexico (MWC)

31. Purdue

32. St Louis

33. Notre Dame

34. San Diego State

35. Alabama

36. Connecticut

37. Virginia

38. Texas

39. California

40. Southern Miss

41. West Virginia

42. Harvard (Ivy)

43. Colorado State

44. Long Beach State (Big West)

45. Xavier

46. Miami

47. VCU (CAA)

48. NC State

49. South Florida

50. BYU

51. Colorado (Pac-12)

52. St. Bonaventure (A-10)

53. Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

54. Davidson (Southern)

55. South Dakota State (Summit)

56. New Mexico State (WAC)

57. Ohio (MAC)

58. Montana (Big Sky)

59. Lehigh (Patriot)

60. Loyola MD (MAAC)

61. Detroit (Horizon)

62. Lamar (Southland)

63. UNC Asheville (Big South)

64. Long Island (NEC)

65. Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

66. Vermont (America East)

67. Norfolk State (MEAC)

68. Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)

Last five out: Drexel, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Tennessee, Mississippi State

Edited March 11, 2012 by bukie

bukie · February 27, 2012

Also, me, Illinois, and I'm out at an island in southern Florida until Saturday, so I don't expect to be around much until then.

SouthSideRyan · February 27, 2012

1 bid conferences

WAC

Horizon

Atlantic Sun (I really like Belmont, but at the end of the day they have 4 top 100 wins to go with 3 losses outside the top 100, and that's putting a nice face on it when 2 of the wins were vs. 99 and 2 of the losses were 180+ teams)

MAC

Patriot

Big South

Northeast

Big Sky

Southland

America East

MEAC

SWAC

There's a handful that are really close to lock 1 bids too (SoCon, Summit, Sun Belt, MAAC, Big West)

Andy · February 27, 2012

I'm going to try to do this again too. It's fun consistently outperforming the experts.

Vanilla Ice · February 28, 2012

1 bid conferences

Atlantic Sun (I really like Belmont, but at the end of the day they have 4 top 100 wins to go with 3 losses outside the top 100, and that's putting a nice face on it when 2 of the wins were vs. 99 and 2 of the losses were 180+ teams)

There's a handful that are really close to lock 1 bids too (SoCon, Summit, Sun Belt, MAAC, Big West)

Think Oral Roberts really has that much of a better resume than Belmont? I've gotta think that they are pretty much in the same boat.

EDIT: Or Davidson

EDIT AGAIN: To be clear, I don't think any of the three of them are going to get close to an at-large bid, if they need one.

SouthSideRyan · February 28, 2012

1 bid conferences

Atlantic Sun (I really like Belmont, but at the end of the day they have 4 top 100 wins to go with 3 losses outside the top 100, and that's putting a nice face on it when 2 of the wins were vs. 99 and 2 of the losses were 180+ teams)

There's a handful that are really close to lock 1 bids too (SoCon, Summit, Sun Belt, MAAC, Big West)
Think Oral Roberts really has that much of a better resume than Belmont? I've gotta think that they are pretty much in the same boat.

EDIT: Or Davidson

EDIT AGAIN: To be clear, I don't think any of the three of them are going to get close to an at-large bid, if they need one.

Not really. I try to be as inclusive as possible the first time through, it would take a lot of squinting for me to put one of those teams, MTSU, or Iona in.

ETA: I guess you can throw Long Beach on there too. 0-5 vs top 50, 2-6 vs top 100.

ETA: FYI, I'm using KenPom unless otherwise stated.

SouthSideRyan · February 28, 2012

Waiting on a conference call, so I'll do some manual calculations, apologies if I've miscounted at all. (Subject to change as ratings do)

UK

Top 25: 6-1

Top 50: 7-1

Top 100: 12-1

No losses outside top 100

Ohio St.

Top 25: 5-5

Top 50: 6-5

Top 100: 10-6

No losses outside top 100

MSU

Top 25: 5-3

Top 50: 9-3

Top 100: 13-5

No losses outside top 100

Kansas

Top 25: 7-3

Top 50: 10-4

Top 100: 16-5

None outside top 100

Wisconsin

Top 25: 2-6

Top 50: 5-6

Top 100: 8-8

None outside top 100

Syracuse

Top 25: 3-0

Top 50: 9-1

Top 100: 17-1

No losses outside top 100

UNC

Top 25: 4-2

Top 50: 8-4

Top 100: 12-4

None > top 100

Wichita St.

Top 25: 0-1

Top 50: 2-3

Top 100: 9-3

1 loss outside top 100 (#147)

Georgetown

Top 25: 4-2

Top 50: 7-5

Top 100: 10-6

None > top 100

Duke

Top 25: 6-1

Top 50: 7-4

Top 100: 15-4

None > top 100

Vanilla Ice · February 28, 2012

Not really. I try to be as inclusive as possible the first time through, it would take a lot of squinting for me to put one of those teams, MTSU, or Iona in.

ETA: I guess you can throw Long Beach on there too. 0-5 vs top 50, 2-6 vs top 100.

ETA: FYI, I'm using KenPom unless otherwise stated.

Me too. My (poorly worded) argument was that Belmont should be included with these other teams.

snoodmonger · February 29, 2012

Waiting on a conference call, so I'll do some manual calculations, apologies if I've miscounted at all. (Subject to change as ratings do)

UK
Top 25: 6-1
Top 50: 7-1
Top 100: 12-1
No losses outside top 100

Ohio St.
Top 25: 5-5
Top 50: 6-5
Top 100: 10-6
No losses outside top 100

MSU
Top 25: 5-3
Top 50: 9-3
Top 100: 13-5
No losses outside top 100

Kansas
Top 25: 7-3
Top 50: 10-4
Top 100: 16-5
None outside top 100

Wisconsin
Top 25: 2-6
Top 50: 5-6
Top 100: 8-8
None outside top 100

Syracuse
Top 25: 3-0
Top 50: 9-1
Top 100: 17-1
No losses outside top 100

UNC
Top 25: 4-2
Top 50: 8-4
Top 100: 12-4
None > top 100

Wichita St.
Top 25: 0-1
Top 50: 2-3
Top 100: 9-3
1 loss outside top 100 (#147)

Georgetown
Top 25: 4-2
Top 50: 7-5
Top 100: 10-6
None > top 100

Duke
Top 25: 6-1
Top 50: 7-4
Top 100: 15-4
None > top 100

out of curiosity, why didn't you do the numbers for Missouri?

SouthSideRyan · February 29, 2012

Ran out of time and only got through the top 11 of Pomeroy ratings.

ETA: Or maybe I just totally skipped them because I was too dumbfounded by Wichita being ranked 8 so I jumped right over #9.

SouthSideRyan · February 29, 2012

Just for proud Mizzou alums, Mizzou and Paige Laurie:

Top 25: 4-3

Top 50: 8-3

Top 100: 14-4

No losses > 100

bukie · March 3, 2012

All bubble teams and self-perceived bubble teams breathe a sigh of relief as Murray State comes back to win the OVC auto bid.

March 4, 2012

What are the chances Long Beach gets an at large bid if they lose in the Big West tournament final (assuming they come back to beat Fullerton tonight)?

SouthSideRyan · March 4, 2012

What are the chances Long Beach gets an at large bid if they lose in the Big West tournament final (assuming they come back to beat Fullerton tonight)?

I kinda like them. A loss in the tourney would be their first loss to a 100+ team all year. Played SDSU, UNC, KU, and Creighton down to the wire, all on the road.

bukie · March 4, 2012

What are the chances Long Beach gets an at large bid if they lose in the Big West tournament final (assuming they come back to beat Fullerton tonight)?

I kinda like them. A loss in the tourney would be their first loss to a 100+ team all year. Played SDSU, UNC, KU, and Creighton down to the wire, all on the road.

What he's saying is that he'd rather give them an at-large spot than Northwestern.

March 4, 2012

What are the chances Long Beach gets an at large bid if they lose in the Big West tournament final (assuming they come back to beat Fullerton tonight)?

I kinda like them. A loss in the tourney would be their first loss to a 100+ team all year. Played SDSU, UNC, KU, and Creighton down to the wire, all on the road.

And of course they lose to Fullerton. Hopefully they win the tournament. It would be nice to see a Big West team in there that actually has a chance to win a game.

bukie · March 4, 2012

Belmont wins the Atlantic Sun, UNC-Asheville wins the Big South. 3 for 3 so far on top seeds winning conference tournaments.

bukie · March 4, 2012

Creighton wins the MVC final convincingly to save another at-large bid from being stolen.

bukie · March 5, 2012

Middle Tennessee shows the nation how not to get into bubble consideration in a small conference, as after not having a bad loss all year, they have two in a week and are out in the Sun Belt quarters.

bukie · March 5, 2012

Also, remember to submit your lists to me by the end of tomorrow in order to participate in this year's selection. As in past years, to be on the level I'll post my lists in this thread for all to see after each deadline.

SouthSideRyan · March 5, 2012

Middle Tennessee shows the nation how not to get into bubble consideration in a small conference, as after not having a bad loss all year, they have two in a week and are out in the Sun Belt quarters.

Arizona showed how too

chuckywang · March 5, 2012

Creighton wins the MVC final convincingly to save another at-large bid from being stolen.

An OT win is a convincing win?

bukie · March 5, 2012

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/000/554/facepalm.jpg

Andy · March 5, 2012

Sent in my list earlier today. Looking forward to this!

bukie · March 6, 2012

Loyola wins the MAAC, VCU wins the Colonial. Drexel is an interesting at-large case, as they had a terrible OOC resume, but won a league tougher than the Pac-12, so their case is arguably better than Washington.

Davidson trying to give away a 12-point lead in the last two minutes in the Southern title game.

NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2012

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