Where do guys start the season? Hitters Edition

[davell]

I'll go through each position here, if I leave anyone out, feel free to put them somewhere, as I'm only listing guys I'm currently keeping an eye on and not organizational fodder.

 

Catcher

I see the loser of the backup Catcher battle between Clevenger and Jaramillo showing up in Iowa, along with Welington Castillo, who I don't think the Cubs will put in the majors, so he'll get more at bats. Tennessee seems open to me, unless they bump Micah Gibbs up a level, which I doubt. I see him at Daytona with Cabezas starting the year in Peoria. This leaves Justin Marre and Rosario to fight it out for Boise and Mesa, unless the Cubs see fit to go ahead and bring Marck Malave over from the D.R, which I think is a very distinct possibility, since he did very well in Winter Ball and Instructs.

 

First Base

 

Obviously, it looks like Rizzo starts the season in Iowa, but I figure Rebel Ridling will also be there, probably playing LF until Rizzo is called up. Justin Bour looks to be a lock for Tennessee and that's where it gets hard to figure. My guess is we'll see Hoilman get the nod at Daytona and one of Vogelbach(probably) or Shoulders gets to go to Peoria. With the loser being in Boise. No idea what we may have in Mesa here.

 

Second Base

 

Tough position to figure. No clue who's in Iowa, possibly Cardenas? Logan Watkins seems definite for Tennessee. Ronald Torreyes seems a lock for Daytona. What about Rubi Silva though? Is he sticking at 2B or is he going to have to move to the OF? I figure Devoss gets Peoria, but his glove could soon move him into the OF as well. A wildcard here could be Gioskar Amaya. He doesn't really seem to have a position yet, but his bat obviously puts him somewhere. Could be Boise at 2B OR 3B, but it could be Peoria at either spot as well. Someone like Keith Lockhart could figure in this mix as well.

 

Shortstop

 

Again, a position with a logjam down in the lower levels. At Iowa, I figure we'll see Gonzalez, Tolbert, or Amezaga. In Tennessee, do we move Lake off yet? I kind of doubt it, but who knows? In Daytona, I expect Alcantara to be there. But, it wouldn't shock me to see Marco Hernandez bumped up to here either, ala Castro. Because Baez will almost definitely see Peoria to start the season. If Hernandez is NOT bumped way up, I guess he's in Boise with Carlos Penalver starting out in Mesa. Wes Darvill seems like the odd man out. Position change or backup role coming his direction very soon.

 

Third Base

 

Josh Vitters seems like the only rather bigtime prospect we'll see in Iowa all season long, as Rizzo and Brett both likely hit the majors by midseason. Matt Cerda appears to be the guy for Tennessee and I don't have an answer for Daytona. Dustin Geiger and Willson Contreras should be battling it out in Peoria, unless the Cubs push Jeimer Candelario up this far, as AZPhil mentioned as a possibility back during Instructs. If that's the case, I guess Contreras or Geiger could wind up in Boise again.

 

Outfield

 

Lots of org fodder to move around here, but Brett Jackson starts off in Iowa, withone of Sappelt or Campana. In AA, Ha should start the season in CF, with Burgess in RF. My guess is one of Szczur or Crawford starts out in LF with the other in Daytona. The only other prospect I see starting out in Daytona's OF is Taiwan Easterling. Maybe Rubi Silva starts as an OFer this year though, since this is where he'll be level-wise anyway. Peoria will have Reggie Golden as a definite, probably with Yusiel Balaguert somewhere in the OF as well for them. Chen seems like the easiest bet for CF to me, but all 3 of these guys have played it at times. Oliver Zapata could see Peoria as well, but I'd think more as a midseason callup. If not, we'll see him, John Andreoli, Trey Martin, Dong Yub Kim, Marcus Schlect, Dunston Jr and Jeffrey Baez battling between Boise and Mesa.

 

To me, there are some interesting decisions to make: Starting with Szczur. Other guys I find interesting to see where they land are Vogelbach/Shoulders, Amaya, Hernandez, Devoss in the middle infield, Candelario on the corner, and maybe Easterling(because of age) in the OF.

[CubColtPacer]

Castillo only has 1 option left. I think it's past the point where the Cubs can easily bypass him just to get him at-bats. Do they really want to be stuck in a situation next year where they are forced to keep him in the major leagues with no idea how he'll handle major league pitching? If they plan to trade Soto in June or July, it would make sense to send him down and then give him the 2 month audition later in the season. Otherwise I think if he doesn't make the team he's in trouble as any sort of prospect.

[Guest]

Some guys you didn't mention who might fit in in some of the holes you have:

 

Rafael Lopez as a C, Ryan Cuneo as a 1B, Elliott Soto at SS and Arismendy Alcantara at 3B in Daytona. Also, Rock Shoulders had surgery so I don't think he'll be ready to break camp.

 

Hopefully they start Szczur at Daytona.

[toonsterwu]

C - For Iowa, guessing Clevenger loses and is there with Jaramillo, with Blake Lalli in his usual occasional C/1st/DH role if he is around. At Tennessee, I'm thinking if Flores is around, it's probably a safe bet for Flores/Brenly. I'll guess Gibbs/Noble in Daytona, and Cabezas/Lopez/Burruel in Peoria if all three are around. I guess I could see Lopez pushed to Daytona. I could see Burruel/Noble/Flores/Lalli possibly get cut (not all obviously)

 

1st - Rizzo, with Ridling in LF in AAA and Bour in AA are the easy ones. A bit tougher after that. For now, I'll Richard Jones, with a chance of Rohan in A+, with Hoilman. possibly Geiger, and say, Cuneo in A. I think Vogelbach and Shoulders will have to force their way in. I can see Jones/Cuneo possibly being cut.

 

2nd - Cardenas/Camp/Mota/Samson/Scales/Gonzalez ... whoever's around will probably get the nod at 2nd. My guess is Cardenas gets the bulk of the time to start. Watkins/Cerda/Soto will likely get time at 2nd in AA. Torreyes at A+ seems like a lock, with perhaps LePage/Silva or even Soccorro/Zapenas in the mix. Darvill/DeVoss/Soccorro/Zapenas could be in the mix in A. One thing to keep in mind is that I could see them start Baez/Hernandez at the same level, with Hernandez handling 2nd/SS and Baez handling SS/3rd, along with some utility options.

 

SS - This one's mildly intriguing. Junk at AAA. With Soto getting a clear call to AA, I imagine we might see Lake get tried at other positions. I think Lake will still get time at short, though. I do not see Hernandez getting a bump to A+, but then again, we didn't expect Castro to. But as bullish as I am on Hernandez, almost everyone out there believes he needs more time/patience than Castro and I'm not sold they push him that fast. Baez, maybe Hernandez in Peoria.

 

3rd - Vitters in AAA with Marquez Smith makes sense. I think Lake could get time in AA, but if a mild surprise happened, I could see Rohan (who age wise, needs to move fast) get time at 3rd with Cerda. That said, I tend to think Rohan starts in A+, perhaps as the main third baseman there. Geiger might be in make or break time, but I'd pencil him in for Peoria as of now, but it's a tough guess.

 

Bleh, that was totally useless.

[Little Slide Rooter]

In AAA, I think that Vitters, Jackson, Rizzo, and Castillo will be the only actual prospects and the rest of that roster will be full of spare parts. This isn't to say that if someone like Lake, Ha, or Watkins looks particularly impressive in the first few months at AA they won't hesitate to call them up and send one of the older guys packing unless they're needed at the big league level. Cardenas should have a decent chance at the big league club if he looks decent at spring training. We'd need an extra guy capable of playing the IF rather than a bench full of outfielders. I also wouldn't be terribly surprised if Byrd was moved by opening day and Jackson given CF. If this happens, Sappelt would likely get the last big league spot over Campana to have another RH bat with both Jackson and DeJesus as starters.

 

Iowa should look like:

 

1B Rizzo

2B E Gon/Scales

SS Mota/Amezaga/Tolbert

3B Vitters

LF Ridling

CF Jackson (Campana if Jackson in bigs)

RF Sappelt (if in bigs, Perez, Spencer, Mather, Wright, and Adduci are all possiblities)

C Castillo

Bench©: C Jaramillo

Bench(IF): Smith( it could be benefical to give him some reps at 2nd) + 1 of Scales/E Gon/Tolbert/Mota/Amezaga, depending on who doesnt start and sticks around when they don't make the Cubs.

Bench(OF): 2 of Spencer, Perez, Wright, Adduci, Mather, again depedning on who isn't starting, and if Jackson and/or Sappelt are in bigs.

[craig]

http://muskat.mlblogs.com/

 

Stupid place to put this, probably.

 

But Muskat has lineups for today's intrasquad game. I'm sure it doesn't mean anything, but an interesting thing is that on one team it's Szczur in left with Sappelt in center. The other team has Ha in center with Campana in left.

 

Always just trying to look at guys, I'm sure. Ha's ability to play great CF might impact his career. Whether or not Sappelt can play a decent center field could impact his chances to make this roster or a future roster as a utility guy. (Or perhaps as a platoon guy some day, if for example Jackson gets eaten alive by big-league lefties...)

 

I think whether or not Szczur is an asset CFer or is below-average or below-Ha or below-Jackson defensively might also impact his future.

[davell]

A little info from AZPhil from yesterday: The other 2 Cubans we signed are much older. 26 and 27 actually. SS Leugim Barroso and RHP Ricardo Estevez. Estevez has to serve a 50 game suspension for PED's, by the way. Since we never heard anything about the other 2 elusive guys, this makes sense, they're org guys.

 

Willson Contreras has been moved back to C. Delbis Arcila and Xavier Batista are back at Fitch after spending last year in the Dominican. 2 Catchers, Wilfredo Pettit and Antonio Valerio are also there. Yasiel Balaguert is assigned to Peoria, by the way. The bad news, for now anyway, is Acosta, Malave, Jeffrey Baez and Penalver are NOT here. They could still make it here in time for Extended Spring Training next month, but I guess it's possible they all stay for another season in the Dominican as well.

 

On the other hand, Jeimer Candelario IS there and is challenging to be Peoria's starting 3B this season.

[KingCubsFan]

A little info from AZPhil from yesterday: The other 2 Cubans we signed are much older. 26 and 27 actually. SS Leugim Barroso and RHP Ricardo Estevez. Estevez has to serve a 50 game suspension for PED's, by the way. Since we never heard anything about the other 2 elusive guys, this makes sense, they're org guys.

 

Willson Contreras has been moved back to C. Delbis Arcila and Xavier Batista are back at Fitch after spending last year in the Dominican. 2 Catchers, Wilfredo Pettit and Antonio Valerio are also there. Yasiel Balaguert is assigned to Peoria, by the way. The bad news, for now anyway, is Acosta, Malave, Jeffrey Baez and Penalver are NOT here. They could still make it here in time for Extended Spring Training next month, but I guess it's possible they all stay for another season in the Dominican as well.

 

On the other hand, Jeimer Candelario IS there and is challenging to be Peoria's starting 3B this season.

Doesn't surprise me that Malave isn't there, but Baez and Penalver sending another season in the Dominican would be surprising. Balaguert is somewhat intriguing but I don't have much hope.

[Guest]

A little info from AZPhil from yesterday: The other 2 Cubans we signed are much older. 26 and 27 actually. SS Leugim Barroso and RHP Ricardo Estevez. Estevez has to serve a 50 game suspension for PED's, by the way. Since we never heard anything about the other 2 elusive guys, this makes sense, they're org guys.

 

Willson Contreras has been moved back to C. Delbis Arcila and Xavier Batista are back at Fitch after spending last year in the Dominican. 2 Catchers, Wilfredo Pettit and Antonio Valerio are also there. Yasiel Balaguert is assigned to Peoria, by the way. The bad news, for now anyway, is Acosta, Malave, Jeffrey Baez and Penalver are NOT here. They could still make it here in time for Extended Spring Training next month, but I guess it's possible they all stay for another season in the Dominican as well.

 

On the other hand, Jeimer Candelario IS there and is challenging to be Peoria's starting 3B this season.

Doesn't surprise me that Malave isn't there, but Baez and Penalver sending another season in the Dominican would be surprising. Balaguert is somewhat intriguing but I don't have much hope.

 

Yeah, I expected Acosta and Malave to be in the DSL this year so that doesn't surprise me.

 

For Je. Baez and Penalver, hopefully it's just visa issues. Happens to a few guys every year.

[davell]

In a surprise, at least to me, Candelario, Vogelbach, Shoulders, and Javier Baez were all moved from the Peoria squad to Boise/Mesa today.

[toonsterwu]

In a surprise, at least to me, Candelario, Vogelbach, Shoulders, and Javier Baez were all moved from the Peoria squad to Boise/Mesa today.

 

I'm not that surprised on ... well ... of all them, other than for one factor - that's a lot of corner guys that need PT.

 

I wonder if this suggests that Marco Hernandez and Gioskar Amaya are impressing so far, or have a higher chance of starting at full season than many expected. I wonder because

 

a) Soccorro and Zapenas are viewed more as organizational guys, and they are the other middle infielders in Peoria (I'm assuming Xavier Batista hasn't found some fountain of agility and started playing middle infield ... )

 

b) The potential downward pressure is ... Arismendy Alcantara? Wes Darvill? Dustin Harrington? Pierre LePage? (I'm assuming Torreyes is locked into a spot in Daytona). Hard for me to see one of those guys displacing Hernande or Amaya if either shows enough in spring.

 

I'm excited. I know I was far higher on Marco Hernandez than ... well ... anyone.

 

As a side note, who the heck is the shortstop at Tennessee? Valdes? Watkins? Ouch.

[davell]

I was thinking Lake would probably start off there. I guess he could be in Iowa though or at a position other than SS.

[craig]

In a surprise, at least to me, Candelario, Vogelbach, Shoulders, and Javier Baez were all moved from the Peoria squad to Boise/Mesa today.

 

I'm not that surprised on ... .. - that's a lot of corner guys that need PT.

 

I wonder if this suggests that Marco Hernandez and Gioskar Amaya are impressing so far, or have a higher chance of starting at full season than many expected. I wonder because

...

b) The potential downward pressure is ... Arismendy Alcantara? Wes Darvill? Dustin Harrington? Pierre LePage? (I'm assuming Torreyes is locked into a spot in Daytona). Hard for me to see one of those guys displacing Hernande or Amaya if either shows enough in spring.

 

I'm excited. I know I was far higher on Marco Hernandez than ... well ... anyone..

 

I wonder if part of the "Cubs Way" will value at least one extended spring training as the default for teenagers. Once you have daily games in full-season, there isn't that much time for practice and skills training and fundamentals. I think XST is much more training/instruction oriented.

 

Hernandez has already experienced a full XST, plus a full year of training in the DSL academy. So he should be much better prepared.

[davell]

AZPhil mentioned that a tall, RH hitting Latin American OFer put on a power display on Field 1 this morning with the Peoria squad......Soler????

[toonsterwu]

I was thinking Lake would probably start off there. I guess he could be in Iowa though or at a position other than SS.

 

Ah, I completely forgot about Lake being up in major league camp right now. Still think someone like Samson or Soto may be pushed down to slot as another shortstop option in AA.

[Brett]

AZPhil mentioned that a tall, RH hitting Latin American OFer put on a power display on Field 1 this morning with the Peoria squad......Soler????

 

Balaguert?

[davell]

AZPhil mentioned that a tall, RH hitting Latin American OFer put on a power display on Field 1 this morning with the Peoria squad......Soler????

 

Balaguert?

I wouldn't think so. Phil has already mentioned Balaguert by name, so putting it in this type of context was very odd. He hasn't answered yet when someone asked if it was Soler, but has replied to others since then. No idea how this works obviously, I know he isn't signed, but is it remotely possible he could get into the country for a few days and work ot for teams?

[davell]

Phil answers a ton of questions and answered one from Toonster since his comment about the OF. Craig asked specifically about his comment in a very well worded question and again, Phil bypassed it. I think it IS Soler, based on this alone.

[Brett]

Phil answers a ton of questions and answered one from Toonster since his comment about the OF. Craig asked specifically about his comment in a very well worded question and again, Phil bypassed it. I think it IS Soler, based on this alone.

 

Yeah, it's pretty obvious that's the implication. Whether Phil means it to be so, he's gotta realize that's what it looks like.

 

Soler could have gotten a travel visa like Cespedes did, but not until he had residency in the DR. I'd be shocked if he could have (1) gotten residency, (2) come to the US, and (3) visited with a team (or teams) in Arizona without there being an explosion of press about it.

 

But, again, that seems to be what Phil is suggesting has happened. Would be a hell of a scoop, and I'd have to wonder why Phil would be so cloak and dagger about revealing it.

[Outshined_One]

Wonder how he knew the guy was an OF and Latin American?

[CUBZ99]

Levine is reporting that Lake was sent to AA with Szczur and Vitters was sent to AAA. Sounds about where they were expected to be.

[Guest]

Levine is reporting that Lake was sent to AA with Szczur and Vitters was sent to AAA. Sounds about where they were expected to be.

It was possible that Lake would be AAA and Szczur would be A+, but it had been hinted that both would be at AA.

[Guest]

Levine is reporting that Lake was sent to AA with Szczur and Vitters was sent to AAA. Sounds about where they were expected to be.

It was possible that Lake would be AAA and Szczur would be A+, but it had been hinted that both would be at AA.

 

And this doesn't necessarily mean one of them might not get demoted once more (at least Szczur could) after they arrive at minor league camp.

[Guest]

Levine is reporting that Lake was sent to AA with Szczur and Vitters was sent to AAA. Sounds about where they were expected to be.

It was possible that Lake would be AAA and Szczur would be A+, but it had been hinted that both would be at AA.

 

And this doesn't necessarily mean one of them might not get demoted once more (at least Szczur could) after they arrive at minor league camp.

True. But it's usually fairly solid once they get optioned to that level from major league camp at this point of the spring.

[craig]

Levine is reporting that Lake was sent to AA with Szczur and Vitters was sent to AAA. Sounds about where they were expected to be.

It was possible that Lake would be AAA and Szczur would be A+, but it had been hinted that both would be at AA.

 

And this doesn't necessarily mean one of them might not get demoted once more (at least Szczur could) after they arrive at minor league camp.

True. But it's usually fairly solid once they get optioned to that level from major league camp at this point of the spring.

 

Not too surprising for Lake. He hasn't been able to hit in small-sample camp (hitting down in the .100's in Arizona while most guys are in the .300's), and he had only a 2-month can't-hit stretch in AA (.300 OBP, .600's OPS). He's a nice athletic body, as Sveum noted. A good dancer, but he's still shown no indication that he can either hit or field. Hopefully this year with a repeat at AA, he'll step it up and start to show some hint of transforming tools into production. This would seem to be a could opportunity to show he's getting there. Last year he showed progress when he repeated at Daytona, riding a nice .392 BABIP to get his OPS over .800 and his OBP at .336. I'm hoping that he can reduce his K rate a little bit this year, maybe get it down below 23%, and hopefully add more HR's so that he can get his K/HR ratio down below 7. I'm not sure that he'll be sustainably a .392 BABIP guy, so I'm hoping he can improve in the HR/BB/K departments so that even when assuming his BABIP does decline, that his overall numbers won't sag that much. I still think his game is as a toolsy power hitter. If a guy can hit 25 HR and play a rangy rocket-armed RF, he can afford to whiff a lot and walk not so much. With 25 HR, you can hit .280 even if you're BABIP is "only" .330 and even if you're still K'ing 23% of your AB. And if you hit 25 HR, you might get a few more "respect" walks. So if he could improve his walk rate in the antiawful direction up to 6%, combined with a HR-enabled .280 average, you could have an OBP over .320. Big year for him, and I'm really eager to see when they finally get around to putting him at a position that he might play in the majors, and whether if they get him off of SS he might look good somewhere else. At 3B or RF, will he still be erratic and non-instinctive, and play below his tools? Or in RF might he actually look really good, like a significant asset guy? Or will he be like a defensive Soriano before Alf's legs went bad?

 

My understanding is that Szczur has looked very good in camp. I think I'm more optimistic about him than most of the board, since I'm optimistic about everybody and I think what struggles he's had have been too brief to conclude that they are enduring. But I don't at all like the prospect of him starting at AA. He had only a .270 BABIP at Daytona. If he looks like he's AA-ready based on camp, that's beautiful, and I hope it's true. But send him back to Daytona and let him produce there for at least a couple of weeks. If it's May 10th and he's producing like we optimists think he can, then move him up, he's earned it, and he'll still have most of the full summer to figure things out against the superior AA pitching. You've learned that your favorable evaluation is justified, and then see how it holds up in AA. But if he starts at Tenn, and he struggles again, what do you learn? You'll just be back to the "he's really inexperienced, at 22 he's still relatively age-young so give him time, he's still learning the game and how to apply his tools to baseball....".

 

So I hope he starts at Daytona. Or if he does start at Tennessee, that he is hitting (and walking) so well that I have no reason to second guess.

 

It could be fun to have some good hitters in AA/AAA this spring. Jackson/Rizzo/Vitters/Castillo (if he's there), that's the best group of Iowa guys in a while. Perhaps Ridling, maybe Flaherty will be back there too, supplemented by decent-hitting vets like wright, Adduci, and Lalli, that could be a very good lineup. And if Szczur is at AA, Szczur/Lake/Ha, those guys probably won't be all that productive relative to the competition, but still those are three real prospects, any one of which could emerge as a really substantial prospect if in fact any of them really does hit like a star, given that Lake and Szczur are only 22 and Ha only 21, and that with Szczur's lack of experience he's probably a very "young" 22 in terms of development.