Cubs Pitching Prospects

[CubsWin]

With the recent additions of Anthony Rizzo, Ronaldo Torreyes and Dave Sappelt joining current prospects Brett Jackson, Javier Baez, Matt Szczur and arguably several others, the Cubs position player prospect depth has gone from a perennial weakness to somewhat of a strength.

 

And what was considered the Cubs organizational strength, it's ability to produce pitchers, particularly power arms (Wood, Zambrano, Cruz, Prior, Marmol, Cashner) has, for the time being, all but vanished.

 

As the Garza trade talks drag on and the possibility of adding one or more high-ceiling pitching prospects remains up in the air, I wanted to discuss the possibilities of current Cubs arms emerging as top of the rotation type prospects. The list of guys with a decent chance right now is short. Trey McNutt and well...Trey McNutt. But what about the long shots. Who are they and how real of a chance do they have of being a two or a three in a MLB rotation?

 

Some names for discussion (in no particular order):

 

Robert Whitenack

Dallas Beeler

Hayden Simpson

Dillon Maples

Ben Wells

Dae-Eun Rhee

Jose Rosario

Zach Cates

 

Scraping the bottom of the barrel there, I know. Simpson has fallen off the prospect map, and rightfully so, but is all lost with him or is there still a chance, however slim, that he regains his previous form? None of these guys are prototypical TOR and/or threes, but do any of them have a chance of becoming that? Who shouldn't be on the above list? Is anyone left off in your opinion?

 

Thanks.

[JeffH]

Starlin Peralta and Luis Liria?

[davell]

Since we haven't seen him pitch, other than a brief stint at Instructs, all we can do is go off the reports on Maples: mid 90's FB, biting curve and a below average change, but with potential. Needs work on his command as well. Still, if his change develops along with a little control, he's the best bet to become a TOR guy for us, including McNutt.

[Outshined_One]

Long story short, the problem with the pitching in this system is that most of the best prospects haven't even been past short season ball yet. The depth of potentially high quality pitchers in the low levels is really impressive, to boot. I think there are potentially useful pitchers in the high minors...but that's about it.

 

I'll split this post up into three parts: AAA/AA guys, A+/A guys, and the short season names.

 

AAA/AA

 

I don't think there would be a whole lot of argument with naming Trey McNutt as the top prospect in this system. He crashed a lackluster Top 10 last year and drew comparisons to Andrew Cashner. Unfortunately, much like Cashner, McNutt struggled with injuries. Making matters worse, McNutt was not particularly effective when healthy. I don't think the talent is gone, plus he might need an offseason of rest, but his past season makes me wonder if he'd be better suited to relief. If he can stay healthy, he could be a quality #2.

 

After McNutt, there are a lot of guys who could be potentially useful relievers who also have their share of issues: Jeff Beliveau (prone to flyballs and HRs), Rafael Dolis (low strikeout rate), Kevin Rhoderick (great stuff, but wild), and Chris Carpenter (low K rates, wild).

 

The starters are a mix of C/C+ guys. Jay Jackson has fallen off the planet, but he could always rebound. Brooks Raley and Ryan Searle might have some upside left, but probably won't be better than #4 starters. Chris Rusin might end up as the LHP version of Casey Coleman. Alberto Cabrera and Nick Struck were both rushed to AAA and seem like intriguing candidates for relief work.

 

A+/A

 

I'm inclined to agree with toonsterwu that Dae-Eun Rhee is the next best pitching prospect in the system. Most people had left him for dead after last season, but he put up impressive numbers this year across the board, especially in the second half of the season. I'm still a bit concerned about his size and his ability to pitch 180+ innings in a season, but his recovery has gone better than expected.

 

Robert Whitenack will likely end up in Peoria/Daytona on his return from TJS. He already had high quality secondary stuff coming into the season, but the velocity spike was encouraging. Even if he makes a full recovery, I have to wonder if his improved numbers were just a fluke. If it wasn't, he's a potential 2/3.

 

Dallas Beeler also merits some mention here. He was pushed to AA after having a strong start to the season in Peoria, but he clearly was overmatched with Tennessee. Still, he's another year removed from Tommy John Surgery and is young enough to refine his secondary stuff to augment his quality sinker. Assuming AA didn't kill his confidence, I like his potential as a middle of the rotation anchor.

 

Zach Cates is a guy I really like from the Cashner trade. He's relatively new to pitching, has a live arm, and his peripherals were excellent last season. I'm curious to see how he looks next season.

 

After those guys, it gets ugly. The most intriguing names include Aaron Kurcz (potential setup man/closer, but is still a ways away), Jeff Antigua (not a fan; maybe a 4/5 at best), Zach Rosscup (intriguing, but injury-plagued), and Austin Kirk (season fell apart after the no-no).

 

Short Season

 

This is where it gets fun.

 

Dillon Maples received a huge overslot and has a fantastic fastball/curve combination. He's my #3 pitching prospect behind McNutt and Rhee. Not much to say since we haven't seen him in action in the minors, but I'm excited.

 

Ben Wells has slowly been building momentum since the Cubs gave him an overslot bonus despite being a largely unknown prospect out of Arkansas. The sinker is deadly, plus he apparently can rear back for a little extra. He had some issues going deep into games with Boise, but I think he can overcome it with more experience.

 

After those two, there's a glut of really intriguing pitchers. That actually could merit another post altogether. While the Latin American guys (Starling Peralta, Jose Rosario, Amaury Paulino, Luis Liria, Willengton Cruz, Jean Sandoval) seem to have gotten the most coverage here and elsewhere, the Cubs have actually stocked up on pitching prospects from other areas. The 2010 and 2011 drafts brought in Tayler Scott, Michael Jensen, Austin Reed, Arturo Maltos-Garcia, Austin Urban, Tony Zych, and Brian Smith. The Cubs' Asian forays have netted three pitchers who could make a splash in Yao Lin Wang, Jin-Yeong Kim, and Su-Min Jung.

 

As for Hayden Simpson...talk about rotten luck. I'm seriously hoping he makes a full recovery and proves everyone wrong who ripped him when he was selected, but between the mono and the injuries, holy hell does he have a long way to go.

[CubsWin]

If Simpson is done, the list of pitchers the Cubs could've chosen is depressing.

 

Jesse Biddle

Zach Lee

Aaron Sanchez

Noah Syndergaard

Anthony Ranaudo

Etc.

 

Not to mention 3B Nick Castellanos and Mike Olt.

 

Oy vey.

[CubsWin]

Short Season

 

This is where it gets fun.

 

Dillon Maples received a huge overslot and has a fantastic fastball/curve combination. He's my #3 pitching prospect behind McNutt and Rhee. Not much to say since we haven't seen him in action in the minors, but I'm excited.

 

Ben Wells has slowly been building momentum since the Cubs gave him an overslot bonus despite being a largely unknown prospect out of Arkansas. The sinker is deadly, plus he apparently can rear back for a little extra. He had some issues going deep into games with Boise, but I think he can overcome it with more experience.

 

After those two, there's a glut of really intriguing pitchers. That actually could merit another post altogether. While the Latin American guys (Starling Peralta, Jose Rosario, Amaury Paulino, Luis Liria, Willengton Cruz, Jean Sandoval) seem to have gotten the most coverage here and elsewhere, the Cubs have actually stocked up on pitching prospects from other areas. The 2010 and 2011 drafts brought in Tayler Scott, Michael Jensen, Austin Reed, Arturo Maltos-Garcia, Austin Urban, Tony Zych, and Brian Smith. The Cubs' Asian forays have netted three pitchers who could make a splash in Yao Lin Wang, Jin-Yeong Kim, and Su-Min Jung.

 

As for Hayden Simpson...talk about rotten luck. I'm seriously hoping he makes a full recovery and proves everyone wrong who ripped him when he was selected, but between the mono and the injuries, holy hell does he have a long way to go.

I'll be following what AZ Phil has to report on all these guys this spring. Especially Simpson. Can't wait.

 

But, I'm curious O_O, who is the cream of the crop for you? The ones with the most upside in your opinion?

[Outshined_One]

But, I'm curious O_O, who is the cream of the crop for you? The ones with the most upside in your opinion?

 

Honestly, I have no insider information whatsoever on those guys and I pretty much go by what I've read in places like BA, BP, etc. There's not much on Youtube, either. Also, I haven't seen any of them first hand, so it's pretty hard for me to get a handle on which of the low level intriguing guys are the best or have the most upside.

 

Maples and Wells are my favorites among the short season guys right now. I feel comfortable saying Maples has the highest upside of any pitcher in this system. Wells seems to have enough projection left that he might have a better upside than a work horse 3/4.

 

Out of the rest of that group? My personal favorite would be Michael Jensen, who was drafted out of CC and signed despite a strong commitment to Southern Cal. I also like Willengton Cruz a good amount, since he's a lefty with projection. Jin-Yeong Kim fascinates me since he's dropped off the face of the planet after a rocky first year stateside as a 19 year old. Despite looking awful in Boise, he rebounded in the AZ League and clearly has talent.

[davell]

Not sure we should read anything into it, but AZPhil has Jensen listed as a reliever right now on our org depth chart. On a different note, my guess is we'll take 3 pitchers this year out of our 4 picks in the top 70.

[CubsWin]

On a different note, my guess is we'll take 3 pitchers this year out of our 4 picks in the top 70.

I know. I'm pretty excited about the arms that will be available at #6. I doubt it will be a true ace type, but he should be good. Really good. If two of the other top picks are arms, the Cubs should be looking a lot better given another year of development of the short season guys, the possible comebacks of Whitenack and Simpson and hopefully a rebuilt McNutt.

 

With the depth the big league team currently has at the back end of the rotation, if just one of the guys mentioned in this thread can become a legit 3 by 2014 (including the arms likely drafted this June), the Cubs extend Garza and sign/trade for the best pitcher they can get, their rotation should be looking pretty solid in two years. Competitive, not dominant, unless everything goes the Cubs way.

 

FA signing/Trade acquisition

Garza

Prospect from this thread

Wood

Samardzija/Wells/Volstad/Another prospect from this thread

 

That's not bad.

[jersey cubs fan]

Isn't the hitting prospect situation pretty similar to the pitching prospect situation? There isn't a plethora of upper level guys in this organization that look to be the equivalent of top of the rotation pitchers in the lineup. A lot of the potential blue chippers are in the lower levels and far from the big leagues/relative unknowns. They seem to have stocked up on team controlled pitching that will at least hold their own the next few years, but there's 8 positions to field and only SS appears to be settled for the next several years, followed by maybe 1B and CF.

[CubsWin]

Isn't the hitting prospect situation pretty similar to the pitching prospect situation? There isn't a plethora of upper level guys in this organization that look to be the equivalent of top of the rotation pitchers in the lineup. A lot of the potential blue chippers are in the lower levels and far from the big leagues/relative unknowns. They seem to have stocked up on team controlled pitching that will at least hold their own the next few years, but there's 8 positions to field and only SS appears to be settled for the next several years, followed by maybe 1B and CF.

For years now, the Cubs hitting prospects have disappointed. Castro appears very good but he's the only one. Soto's okay, but after that there have been no guys of note. Prospect after prospect has disappointed at the plate. Vitters, Colvin, Pie, Choi, Patterson. Vitters still has a chance, but he certainly has underperformed to date. Now the Cubs top 10 is dominated by bats. None of them are elite bats with the possible exception of Rizzo, but there are far more bats than arms. And that's new. For a long time, the Cubs were known to for producing a fairly consistent string of mostly power arms. Now? Next to nothing. I'm betting that'll change, but for the first time in a long time, the number of highly regarded Cubs hitting prospects clearly outweighs those of their power arms. According to many prognosticators the Cubs top 4 prospects are all hitters and their highest ranking pitching prospect is either McNutt who is coming off of a down year or Maples who has yet to throw a professional pitch except in instructs. That's new.

[davell]

Isn't the hitting prospect situation pretty similar to the pitching prospect situation? There isn't a plethora of upper level guys in this organization that look to be the equivalent of top of the rotation pitchers in the lineup. A lot of the potential blue chippers are in the lower levels and far from the big leagues/relative unknowns. They seem to have stocked up on team controlled pitching that will at least hold their own the next few years, but there's 8 positions to field and only SS appears to be settled for the next several years, followed by maybe 1B and CF.

There's more hitting throughout though. Once you get outside of Maples and Wells, it's hard to see any other pitcher in our lower levels developing into anything more than serviceable. Yeah, there's guys like Peralta, Liria, Rosario that you can dream on, but they've done very little to this point to make you think they'll successfully make that jump. Hitting-wise, the lower levels are stacked with big upside guys: Baez, Vogelbach, Hernandez, Candelario, Golden, Amaya, Torreyes, Dunston Jr, even Easterling. Almost all of our big bonus guys lately have been hitters. There's no doubt we're much stronger there than pitching currently, from the top with Jackson, Rizzo, and Szczur as legit starter types versus McNutt as far as pitching goes, all the way to the very bottom. Even the DSL saw us sign 3 bigtime bonuses this past season, all of which were hitters.

[jersey cubs fan]

Isn't the hitting prospect situation pretty similar to the pitching prospect situation? There isn't a plethora of upper level guys in this organization that look to be the equivalent of top of the rotation pitchers in the lineup. A lot of the potential blue chippers are in the lower levels and far from the big leagues/relative unknowns. They seem to have stocked up on team controlled pitching that will at least hold their own the next few years, but there's 8 positions to field and only SS appears to be settled for the next several years, followed by maybe 1B and CF.

For years now, the Cubs hitting prospects have disappointed. Castro appears very good but he's the only one. Soto's okay, but after that there have been no guys of note. Prospect after prospect has disappointed at the plate. Vitters, Colvin, Pie, Choi, Patterson. Vitters still has a chance, but he certainly has underperformed to date. Now the Cubs top 10 is dominated by bats. None of them are elite bats with the possible exception of Rizzo, but there are far more bats than arms. And that's new. For a long time, the Cubs were known to for producing a fairly consistent string of mostly power arms. Now? Next to nothing. I'm betting that'll change, but for the first time in a long time, the number of highly regarded Cubs hitting prospects clearly outweighs those of their power arms. According to many prognosticators the Cubs top 4 prospects are all hitters and their highest ranking pitching prospect is either McNutt who is coming off of a down year or Maples who has yet to throw a professional pitch except in instructs. That's new.

 

Yeah, I get that there are numbers now that haven't appeared before, but the issue remains they aren't stocked with blue chips at upper levels and they still need to acquire more bats. I just think it's a mistake to emphasize pitching at the expense of hitters in the minor leagues, the Cubs can use both right now. They hardly have a glut of anything, outside of maybe mediocre space fillers, which they seemed to stock up on in recent years.

[CubColtPacer]

Isn't the hitting prospect situation pretty similar to the pitching prospect situation? There isn't a plethora of upper level guys in this organization that look to be the equivalent of top of the rotation pitchers in the lineup. A lot of the potential blue chippers are in the lower levels and far from the big leagues/relative unknowns. They seem to have stocked up on team controlled pitching that will at least hold their own the next few years, but there's 8 positions to field and only SS appears to be settled for the next several years, followed by maybe 1B and CF.

For years now, the Cubs hitting prospects have disappointed. Castro appears very good but he's the only one. Soto's okay, but after that there have been no guys of note. Prospect after prospect has disappointed at the plate. Vitters, Colvin, Pie, Choi, Patterson. Vitters still has a chance, but he certainly has underperformed to date. Now the Cubs top 10 is dominated by bats. None of them are elite bats with the possible exception of Rizzo, but there are far more bats than arms. And that's new. For a long time, the Cubs were known to for producing a fairly consistent string of mostly power arms. Now? Next to nothing. I'm betting that'll change, but for the first time in a long time, the number of highly regarded Cubs hitting prospects clearly outweighs those of their power arms. According to many prognosticators the Cubs top 4 prospects are all hitters and their highest ranking pitching prospect is either McNutt who is coming off of a down year or Maples who has yet to throw a professional pitch except in instructs. That's new.

 

Yeah, I get that there are numbers now that haven't appeared before, but the issue remains they aren't stocked with blue chips at upper levels and they still need to acquire more bats. I just think it's a mistake to emphasize pitching at the expense of hitters in the minor leagues, the Cubs can use both right now. They hardly have a glut of anything, outside of maybe mediocre space fillers, which they seemed to stock up on in recent years.

 

They could definitely use some of both, but if they have to choose it makes sense to add pitching. The best two sure bets in the minors are hitters. Most of the high upside guys both in the upper levels and the lower levels are hitters. They shouldn't take a vastly inferior pitcher just to take a pitcher, but pitching is clearly the biggest need of the Cubs system right now.

[CubsWin]

Yeah...but the issue remains they aren't stocked with blue chips at upper levels.

I agree, though I don't think anyone was saying that.

 

I just think it's a mistake to emphasize pitching at the expense of hitters in the minor leagues, the Cubs can use both right now.

Duly noted. You might be right.

 

My question is, which of the pitching prospects currently in the organization have a ceiling of a 2 or a 3, given that we likely don't have anyone capable of being an ace at the moment?

 

And one of my conclusions is that it is not out of the realm of possibility that the Cubs might have a strong to very strong rotation by 2014.

[davell]

If you add Soler, the hitting looks that much better too. He'd immediately slot in as our top prospect. Callis says he'll be in the 11 to 20 range in their overall top 100. The vast majority of IFA's I've heard about, outside of Soler, are pitchers, for what it's worth. No top 100 guys though. Still, it's a way to beef up the ppitching side for sure.

[craig]

..I wanted to discuss the possibilities of current Cubs arms emerging as top of the rotation type prospects..

 

I think we probably don't really have any right now, depending on how good we define "TOR" to be.

 

McNutt I think is a longshot, although longshot is better than no shot and he's the best candidate in the full minors. I’m concerned that none of his individual pitches are special enough and that his control isn’t either, even when healthy. Pre-injury he was pretty fast, but he wasn't like Cashner/Z/Prior/Cruz/Wood/Guzman/Farnsworth in terms of velocity. His control was better than Archer, but it's not like Mike Mussina or one of these guys who's an ace at 91-94 velocity by virtue of command. I think he's got a chance to be very solid, and perhaps a if everything goes well a #2 type guy, but not really an elite #1 unless something changes radically for the better.

 

For the low minors guys, I think Simpson and Maples.

 

I know the board generally disliked Simpson's pick, and obviously he was awful last year. And even at draft time before the series of bad news-worse news since, his stuff wasn't touted as elite #1, more like good-but-not-great #3-#2 type. So as with McNutt, I'm probably hoping against the odds that he ends up being a good #2 rather than an overpowering dazzling #1. But I've still got him pretty high on my ranking list (relative to other lists I've seen). I was told that he was throwing 95 easily in Mesa recently, so I'm hopeful that he's going to have his arm back. No surprise that he wasn't good while pitching with a fractured elbow last year. Little can be evaluated when a guy is pitching hurt with 10-15 mph missing, so if in fact he's back 100%, I don't think last year's stuff really tells anything about his future. (I'm hoping that McNutt's struggles in spring, summer, and fall can likewise be dismissed based on a serious but completely recoverable injury. But his velocity was poor in spring training pre-blister; I don't think a blister last from April through AFL; and I'm not sure bruised ribs in May should have still been crippling him in October AFL. So I'm kinda worried that either he's just not very good even when healthy, or else that he's got arm problems that go beyond a blister and some bruised ribs, both of which seem like they should be injuries of limited duration).

 

Maples sounds like he could have electric stuff. So in terms of TOR potential, he's the one guy in the system who seems to qualify. But, he's way distant and I think his control is lousy, much less his command. IF he can stay healthy, and somehow transforms into a coordinated athlete with good command, I think the sky is the limit. That's a remote IF, and it's not that often even for teenagers that wildmen end up transforming into TOR command. But a slim chance is better than no chance.

 

Note: The good thing with pitchers is that they can develop in unpredictable ways. Some very good pitchers do it without being extraordinarily fast (Webb, Musina, Maddux, Glavine, etc..) And some guys who didn't look that overwhelming early can add velocity or add offspeed pitches over time that very much change their original profile. Dontrelle willis, who knew that he'd almost win the Cy Young award or finish near the top in ERA? Angel Guzman never actually made it as a starter, but neither his 7K/9IP as a 19 and 20-year old nor his velocity reports (good but not super-fast) really portended what he was later on, when he did become very fast and after he developed a good strikeout-inducing curveball.

 

So maybe Ben Wells will end up faster, and will develop a strikeout-inducing breaking ball, even if neither his offspeed stuff nor his velocity was especially notable last summer. Maybe Willengton Cruz will still add a couple mph and become more consistently excellent. I had Whitenack at 15 on my list (post-Garza) last winter, but that was a reach and few others shared that; but with several extra mph that turned up over the offseason, he was a different guy. so maybe somebody who I don't recognize as being talented enough to be a TOR guy will surprise me.

[CUBZ99]

..I wanted to discuss the possibilities of current Cubs arms emerging as top of the rotation type prospects..

 

I think we probably don't really have any right now, depending on how good we define "TOR" to be.

 

McNutt I think is a longshot, although longshot is better than no shot and he's the best candidate in the full minors. I’m concerned that none of his individual pitches are special enough and that his control isn’t either, even when healthy. Pre-injury he was pretty fast, but he wasn't like Cashner/Z/Prior/Cruz/Wood/Guzman/Farnsworth in terms of velocity. His control was better than Archer, but it's not like Mike Mussina or one of these guys who's an ace at 91-94 velocity by virtue of command. I think he's got a chance to be very solid, and perhaps a if everything goes well a #2 type guy, but not really an elite #1 unless something changes radically for the better.

 

For the low minors guys, I think Simpson and Maples.

 

I know the board generally disliked Simpson's pick, and obviously he was awful last year. And even at draft time before the series of bad news-worse news since, his stuff wasn't touted as elite #1, more like good-but-not-great #3-#2 type. So as with McNutt, I'm probably hoping against the odds that he ends up being a good #2 rather than an overpowering dazzling #1. But I've still got him pretty high on my ranking list (relative to other lists I've seen). I was told that he was throwing 95 easily in Mesa recently, so I'm hopeful that he's going to have his arm back. No surprise that he wasn't good while pitching with a fractured elbow last year. Little can be evaluated when a guy is pitching hurt with 10-15 mph missing, so if in fact he's back 100%, I don't think last year's stuff really tells anything about his future. (I'm hoping that McNutt's struggles in spring, summer, and fall can likewise be dismissed based on a serious but completely recoverable injury. But his velocity was poor in spring training pre-blister; I don't think a blister last from April through AFL; and I'm not sure bruised ribs in May should have still been crippling him in October AFL. So I'm kinda worried that either he's just not very good even when healthy, or else that he's got arm problems that go beyond a blister and some bruised ribs, both of which seem like they should be injuries of limited duration).

 

Is Simpson currently in Mesa working out prior to ST? If he is hitting 95mph already that is very encouraging. Simpson has had a really unfortunate start with the organization and all of his maladies have set him back quite a bit. He will be 23 this year and he hasn't pitched higher than A ball.

 

Also, didn't realize that he had a fractured elbow.

[Outshined_One]

..I wanted to discuss the possibilities of current Cubs arms emerging as top of the rotation type prospects..

 

I think we probably don't really have any right now, depending on how good we define "TOR" to be.

 

I agree.

 

Now, in fairness to the Cubs, most teams lack pitching prospects who have true ace upside with at least some potential of reaching that upside. It is incredibly difficult to identify, acquire, and coach those sorts of pitchers to that point. Health also plays an important factor. This isn't the sort of problem that is easy to remedy.

 

What intrigues me about the crop of guys down in short season ball is that they are relative unknowns. Most of them come with promising scouting reports and/or statistical success. It's possible none of them ever see AAA. However, as craig said, they also could develop in unpredictable ways. These guys could easily surprise us.

 

I also like the fact that there are so many of those guys in our system. In previous years, there usually would be two or three of those kinds of guys at best in the short season leagues. Quantity matters in building a farm system.

[toonsterwu]

craig - Ben Wells velocity wasn't notable last year? His power sinker could hit 94/95 in game. The issue was that he dialed his sinker down to more 92/93 area to get better command on the pitch, but the power sinker at 94/95 was still fairly solid. He supposedly could run a 4-seamer a bit higher. I mean, we're gushing over Whitenack's velocity improvement, and he was only starting to touch 93/94.

[toonsterwu]

Somewhat a side note, as O_O made a fantastic post with little to add, so just some various comments/opinions.

 

- Still wonder about Jay Jackson in the pen. Saw him hit 90's this year (I know there were some reports of velo drop, but I didn't see it), and I wonder if a move to the pen, with less of a focus on command and more focus on stuff, could allow him to find a consistent breaking ball.

 

- Somewhat think Alberto Cabrera is almost a bit forgotten. Understandable reasons why, but 2011 followed the 2010 pattern - he needed time to adjust to a level. Still has a low-mid 90's fastball and a breaking ball that can be nasty at times. I just don't think he's a starter, but I am fairly curious about him in the pen.

 

- I doubt they'd do it, as he held his own in AAA, but a part of me thinks Nick Struck would be better off starting in AA and working on secondary pitch development. There's still some untapped potential here, although he's still more a 4/5 guy with a tiny chance of being a touch better (velo is solidly in the low 90's and can hit mid-90's occasionally).

 

- Is Blake Parker somewhat forgotten in our pen mix as well? I'm not so sure he couldn't have a season or two in the bigs where he looks like a good setup type guy.

 

- might be one of the only ones that cares a bit, but mildly curious how David Cales looks on his return next year. Looked like a decent pen arm in development, albeit one whose ceiling was limited. Also curious if Marcus Hatley can become a dominant late inning type, something the old leadership seemed to buy.

 

- IF Brett Wallach is with us next year, and there's no guarantee of that as he's 23 and is fighting for a spot in Daytona, I might be curious about his development as a power pen arm.

 

- Still a bit more intrigued with Antigua than the reviews from lists this year. I know some that said his velocity seemed a bit better this year (not significantly better to alter any quick scouting report write-ups). The AA rotation could be intriguing next year.

 

- Fairly curious how Loosen looks next year, probably in A+. Didn't get a good read on his stuff this year. Reports out of college were mediocre on stuff, so the expectation game isn't being set high.

 

- Two guys I wouldn't completely sleep on yet - Robinson Lopez (who I wasn't as high on as others, but he was trying to make mechanical changes all last year supposedly) and Graham Hicks (although this may be residual interest on account of seeing him a couple years back).

 

- Somewhat feel like Luis Liria might be the over-looked arm amongst the young LA arms. A lot of focus on Peralta, Jose Arias, Rosario, and others, and for justifiable reasons. But Liria does seem to have the makings of 3 above average or better pitches sooner than later, and if the command comes, he could be fascinating. Somewhat reminds me of Alberto Cabrera a couple years back (not physically, just electric armed guys who had better secondary options than some of their peers at the same level who might have had a tick better fastballs - even in Liria's case, he hit 94/95 at times in 2011).

 

- my intrigue, excitement about Ben Wells is well known. I was never as high on Austin Reed as others were last year, but I'd keep an eye out on him. Let's see if he can find some consistency, but he can get guys to pound it hard into the ground, and a power sinker guy always gets my attention (sadly, so did Jon Nagel ... although IIRC, injuries hurt him).

 

- Kyler Burke might be the single most fascinating arm next year for me because of what he could be and his age.

 

- Favorite arm from this past draft was probably Jensen, but he might be slated for pen duty. Maples has the highest ceiling, but a good sleeper to watch may be Francescon. Ceiling is a bit limited, as fastball is average for a righty, but could move fairly fast with a "3" ceiling.

 

- Jose Rosario is the power arm to watch in the lower levels, hitting upper 90's while showing potential on the breaking ball (slider off the top), but another power pen arm that intrigues me is Charles Thomas. Rosario has some starting potential, but boy, I don't get a great feel that that's going to happen. Just a gut feeling there. If they make the decision that he can't make it as a starter, he could perhaps move fast as a pen arm.

 

- I think AzPhil was touting Brian Smith? Hunter Ackerman has to get a move on it. Seems doubtful to expect much. IIRC, Pugliese had decent-solid pre-draft reports. There were 4 prep arms of note in 2010, and I wonder if Hartman/Richardson can build on some improvement they showed last year. They are still awfully young kids.

 

- I still don't get all the Tony Zych love, relative to where I have him listed (outside of the top 30). Velo's nice, sure, but Jose Rosario has good velo. Almost all the reports agreed that his breaking ball was below average. This isn't to say he couldn't improve it - just befuddles me why people have him fairly high when it's fastball velo, below average breaking ball.

 

- And still a bit disappointed that Justin Bristow never built upon the intrigue he showed 2 seasons back.

[Quakers]

I liked what I saw of Rosario last year. Admittedly it was one start for each, but I liked him better than Wells.

[craig]

craig - Ben Wells velocity wasn't notable last year? His power sinker could hit 94/95 in game. The issue was that he dialed his sinker down to more 92/93 area to get better command on the pitch, but the power sinker at 94/95 was still fairly solid. He supposedly could run a 4-seamer a bit higher. I mean, we're gushing over Whitenack's velocity improvement, and he was only starting to touch 93/94.

 

I'm glad to hear he was that fast. I hadn't gotten that impression from what I'd been told or read. Weren't some of the Boise games on internet broadcasts? I thought some of my friends said he was more like 89-93 when they were watching, or maybe that was listening to the radio or something. His stats didn't suggest he was overwhelmingly fast (low K, high hits, high ERA). Weird.

 

I suppose 94-95 isn't really fast, although it isn't slow obviously. I'd guess that every org has a dozen guys who can hit 95.

 

On Whitenack, I don't think anybody was spinning him as overwhelmingly fast, just as being no longer prohibitively slow. I think Whitenack was working because he had really good command, really good movement, and a really good offspeed pitch. Good command with a bad fastball gets you only so far, but good command with an average fastball adds up to an above-average guy.

[Guest]

craig - Ben Wells velocity wasn't notable last year? His power sinker could hit 94/95 in game. The issue was that he dialed his sinker down to more 92/93 area to get better command on the pitch, but the power sinker at 94/95 was still fairly solid. He supposedly could run a 4-seamer a bit higher. I mean, we're gushing over Whitenack's velocity improvement, and he was only starting to touch 93/94.

 

I'm glad to hear he was that fast. I hadn't gotten that impression from what I'd been told or read. Weren't some of the Boise games on internet broadcasts? I thought some of my friends said he was more like 89-93 when they were watching, or maybe that was listening to the radio or something. His stats didn't suggest he was overwhelmingly fast (low K, high hits, high ERA). Weird.

 

I suppose 94-95 isn't really fast, although it isn't slow obviously. I'd guess that every org has a dozen guys who can hit 95.

 

On Whitenack, I don't think anybody was spinning him as overwhelmingly fast, just as being no longer prohibitively slow. I think Whitenack was working because he had really good command, really good movement, and a really good offspeed pitch. Good command with a bad fastball gets you only so far, but good command with an average fastball adds up to an above-average guy.

 

Wells was generally 90-94 in game but seemed to tire and go 88-92 late in his (relatively short) starts.

[toonsterwu]

Raisin - I was under the impression that he was asked to dial down his velocity to gain better command. He did wear down a bit relative to stuff and innings, but that was often primarily due to pitch counts that arose from inconsistent command.

 

craig - I should be clear. By no means am I suggesting that Wells is better off throwing that power sinker at 94/95, as the general indication seemed to be that he didn't have the best command on it at that velocity (should be noted that a power sinker that can hit 94/95 is awfully fast). I expect him to sit a bit lower than that, and work in that "classic power sinker range" of around 91-93 perhaps.

 

I would note that using those stats to judge his velocity probably isn't the best way to assess the velocity. The secondary pitches were too inconsistent for him to get K's with, and I can't recall too many power sinker guys that racked up huge K rates off of the sinker. A more notable stat on the effectiveness of the power sinker is probably his 63% GB rate (along with the consistency he got GB's - didn't have a single month below 60% GB at Boise), to go with the 3.16 GO/AO ratio.

 

As for Whitenack and Wells, I think we're talking about things from slightly different angles. A power sinker at 92/93 is generally considered fast for that pitch, and considering Whitenack was able to hit that, he definitely had a "fast" power sinker. I wasn't trying to diminish the improved velocity on that pitch - my only point there was that Wells had hit higher velocities on his power sinker.