Star players and how they are acquired

[CubColtPacer]

 

There's plenty of value in average cheap players. You don't want a full roster of them, but baseball players do not follow a standard bell curve. There are not tons of average players out there, so if you have some of them for cheap that's helpful to make sure that you don't have a hole at certain positions.

 

And that's my biggest problem with acquiring Volstad on purpose. He may wind up a cheap average player for us this year, but we're not trying to win games this year, so what's the point. By time he matters to us, he's no longer cheap.

 

Well, if he breaks out and becomes a 2 to 3 win pitcher, then he'll have enough value to be fine to pay whatever he gets in arbitration or have trade value. If he doesn't, then he gets non-tendered. I would agree though that Volstad isn't the ideal buy low because of how much service time he already has.

[Tracer Bullet]

If they only win 75 games this year they should be held accountable. I'm not sure why suffering through 2 years of sucking should be considered acceptable. This isn't Hendry's team anymore. They had an opportunity to improve it and they passed on that opportunity, so if the team sucks, it's on them.

I can't buy that argument. It's like claiming the Iraq war is Obama's war.

 

Until Hendry's contracts roll off, the team still has his footprint. The front office inherited a mess. They could have continued to band-aid the mess as has been done for 3 straight years, or they could blow it up and build it the their own way.

 

Soriano's under contract for 3 more years. So the team is still Hendry's team until 2015??

 

He said Hendry's footprint. And obviously the fewer contracts from JH, the smaller the print (though he also gets credit for Castro).

 

I think the point is that Theo ranking 2012 to make 2013+ better doesn't mean all of the failures of 2012 are on him, as jersey seemed to suggest. Rather, you hired a great GM to fix your organization, give him more than 1 season to do it.

 

The pieces were/are there to be both better now and down the line.

 

It would appear that Theo didn't think so. Or at least that the cost of the FAs this year wouldn't be justified by the increase in Ws.

[Sammy Sofa]

Then fie on him. And fie on Ricketts.

 

FOR NOW.

 

I HATE BEING THE BREWERS.

[CincyCubsFan]

The pieces were/are there to be both better now and down the line.

 

Right. I think it's a cop-out to suggest that Theo's not responsible for winning in the next 'x' number of years while he rids the roster of Hendry's players (Not that I necessarily think this is what Theo is doing.) But an incoming GM has the responsibility to evaluate what he inherited and to make use of the parts that are usable. An elite baseball mind like Theo has the reputation for being should be able to both "win now" while also building the farm system to "win later." You know, the whole "parallel fronts" thing.

[jersey cubs fan]

I have a problem with your conclusion here. Basically, we just keep signing averagish floor lottery tickets and hope one turns into Jose Bautista while we wait for the farm system to produce elite players? I don't see how that doesn't turn into a 75 win team for the next 3 years.

 

Also, as an added bonus, during those 3 years we get to waste cheap 5+ WAR seasons from Starlin Castro.

 

If we're blowing an offseason that could have made us a playoff team or near playoff team, why are the following two seasons already written off when we've only gotten rid of expiring contracts and added guys under control for several years?

 

You are the one that talked about waiting until after the third season to hold them accountable for a lack fo success.

[Tracer Bullet]

I have a problem with your conclusion here. Basically, we just keep signing averagish floor lottery tickets and hope one turns into Jose Bautista while we wait for the farm system to produce elite players? I don't see how that doesn't turn into a 75 win team for the next 3 years.

 

Also, as an added bonus, during those 3 years we get to waste cheap 5+ WAR seasons from Starlin Castro.

 

If we're blowing an offseason that could have made us a playoff team or near playoff team, why are the following two seasons already written off when we've only gotten rid of expiring contracts and added guys under control for several years?

 

You are the one that talked about waiting until after the third season to hold them accountable for a lack fo success.

 

Hahaha. You must have misread it bc this type of intentional misinterpretation isn't your style.

[jersey cubs fan]

Players who come from the team's minor league system - Homegrown

Players traded to the team after reaching the Major Leagues - Traded

Players signed as Free Agents from other teams - Free Agent

 

Why limit it to just guys traded after reaching the majors? What about guys traded on the cusp of the majors?

 

Those guys(Hanley and Wainwright, to name two) are still counted, they just get lumped in with Homegrown. The line has to be drawn somewhere, and I thought that was a simple and intuitive enough line.

 

Doesn't that just skew unnecessarily into the "just wait for the farm to work everything out" situation? It's simple, but I'm not sure how intuitive it is to pretend trading for a ready made prospect is the same as drafting/signing/developing your own star. Your theory seems to suggest we should just wait for the farm to do it's work, but if you wait for the farm it's going to take forever. You have to acquire other people's stars if you don't want to wait that long. That is done either via trade, of budding superstars (reasonable), already established pre free agency stars (farm clearers + money), or free agency (money). The Cubs have money, they don't have a farm or the assets to trade for other teams about to arrive superstars. So right now, their only option is to sign free agents. In a couple years maybe they can trade for established stars, and a couple years after that some of their own should be coming through the system.

[Tracer Bullet]

The pieces were/are there to be both better now and down the line.

 

Right. I think it's a cop-out to suggest that Theo's not responsible for winning in the next 'x' number of years while he rids the roster of Hendry's players (Not that I necessarily think this is what Theo is doing.) But an incoming GM has the responsibility to evaluate what he inherited and to make use of the parts that are usable. An elite baseball mind like Theo has the reputation for being should be able to both "win now" while also building the farm system to "win later." You know, the whole "parallel fronts" thing.

 

Theo isn't responsible for winning this year. If we all can't agree with that, we should have hired some schmuck and continued to tread water forever. Theo inherited a mess.

[jersey cubs fan]

Hahaha. You must have misread it bc this type of intentional misinterpretation isn't your style.

 

He said if this sitting on your hands style results in 3 years of 75 wins, then that's a problem. I see it as a problem if it results in 1 year of 75 wins, and 2 would be a disaster. I'm not sure why he's willing to wait through 3 of them.

[jersey cubs fan]

Theo isn't responsible for winning this year. If we all can't agree with that, we should have hired some schmuck and continued to tread water forever. Theo inherited a mess.

 

That is such nonsense. He's not responsible for turning this team into a juggernaut this year, but they should win more than they are in-line to win. He inherited a flawed organization. But the pieces were out there to turn this team into at least a respectable club this season without destroying any future hope for greater success.

[Tracer Bullet]

Hahaha. You must have misread it bc this type of intentional misinterpretation isn't your style.

 

He said if this sitting on your hands style results in 3 years of 75 wins, then that's a problem. I see it as a problem if it results in 1 year of 75 wins, and 2 would be a disaster. I'm not sure why he's willing to wait through 3 of them.

 

Yes. That's not the same as saying he thinks you wait 3 years to evaluate him. That's basic logic which we know TT is entitled to.

[Guest]

Players who come from the team's minor league system - Homegrown

Players traded to the team after reaching the Major Leagues - Traded

Players signed as Free Agents from other teams - Free Agent

 

Why limit it to just guys traded after reaching the majors? What about guys traded on the cusp of the majors?

 

Those guys(Hanley and Wainwright, to name two) are still counted, they just get lumped in with Homegrown. The line has to be drawn somewhere, and I thought that was a simple and intuitive enough line.

 

Doesn't that just skew unnecessarily into the "just wait for the farm to work everything out" situation? It's simple, but I'm not sure how intuitive it is to pretend trading for a ready made prospect is the same as drafting/signing/developing your own star. Your theory seems to suggest we should just wait for the farm to do it's work, but if you wait for the farm it's going to take forever. You have to acquire other people's stars if you don't want to wait that long. That is done either via trade, of budding superstars (reasonable), already established pre free agency stars (farm clearers + money), or free agency (money). The Cubs have money, they don't have a farm or the assets to trade for other teams about to arrive superstars. So right now, their only option is to sign free agents. In a couple years maybe they can trade for established stars, and a couple years after that some of their own should be coming through the system.

 

I don't think that my pretty simplistic exercise really directly points to that type of solution. Really, I was trying to point more towards the surprisingly small number of FA's that have star-quality seasons. The difference in "develop your own stars" and "trade for guys who are not yet stars but might/will be soon" isn't terribly important, especially in the context of all the other comments that were made in the original post and the ensuing replies.

[Tracer Bullet]

Theo isn't responsible for winning this year. If we all can't agree with that, we should have hired some schmuck and continued to tread water forever. Theo inherited a mess.

 

That is such nonsense. He's not responsible for turning this team into a juggernaut this year, but they should win more than they are in-line to win. He inherited a flawed organization. But the pieces were out there to turn this team into at least a respectable club this season without destroying any future hope for greater success.

 

If winning 60 instead of 80 games thus year makes the team significantly better in 2013-14, it's stupid not to do it.

[bukie]

How difficult would it be to split "Homegrown" into "Drafted" and "Acquired as a minor leaguer"?

[Sammy Sofa]

Theo isn't responsible for winning this year. If we all can't agree with that, we should have hired some schmuck and continued to tread water forever. Theo inherited a mess.

 

That is such nonsense. He's not responsible for turning this team into a juggernaut this year, but they should win more than they are in-line to win. He inherited a flawed organization. But the pieces were out there to turn this team into at least a respectable club this season without destroying any future hope for greater success.

 

Right. I certainly wasn't expecting them to suddenly become 90-game winners, but I don't think it was unreasonable to expect them to be noticeably better than last year as a step in the right direction given the money they had coming off of the books. That combined with the money also being freed up after 2012 seemed to make it a realistic expectation that they'd be able to start moving forward without having to go backwards at all.

Edited January 5, 2012 by Sammy Sofa

[jersey cubs fan]

Hahaha. You must have misread it bc this type of intentional misinterpretation isn't your style.

 

He said if this sitting on your hands style results in 3 years of 75 wins, then that's a problem. I see it as a problem if it results in 1 year of 75 wins, and 2 would be a disaster. I'm not sure why he's willing to wait through 3 of them.

 

Yes. That's not the same as saying he thinks you wait 3 years to evaluate him. That's basic logic which we know TT is entitled to.

 

Where's the logic? He's skewing a list of players to try and support the notion that the only hope for the Cubs is to build stars from within, which inevitably takes at least 3 years. He threw out the 3 years comment. You and him and a bunch of others are buying into the notion that the Cubs stood no chance of staying in contention in the NL Central in 2012 so they were justified in tanking and it's nothing but a bunch of nonsense. If this team had $135 million in guarantees locked into lost players for 2012, well, your only choice was to clean house and essentially tank. But that wasn't the situation. This team isn't/wasn't destined to suck in 2012 until you pass/passed on the one thing you had a chance of acquiring this offseason with available resources, free agents.

 

The excuse making and retroactive justification of avoiding free agency is mind numbing.

[jersey cubs fan]

Theo isn't responsible for winning this year. If we all can't agree with that, we should have hired some schmuck and continued to tread water forever. Theo inherited a mess.

 

That is such nonsense. He's not responsible for turning this team into a juggernaut this year, but they should win more than they are in-line to win. He inherited a flawed organization. But the pieces were out there to turn this team into at least a respectable club this season without destroying any future hope for greater success.

 

If winning 60 instead of 80 games thus year makes the team significantly better in 2013-14, it's stupid not to do it.

 

It's stupid to suggest that is the case.

[Tracer Bullet]

How difficult would it be to split "Homegrown" into "Drafted" and "Acquired as a minor leaguer"?

 

The point is signing FAs is much less likely to land stars than drafting or acquiring them via trade. Splitting the last 2 more finely doesn't change the landscape meaningfully and, in nsbb land, just leads to more arguments that miss the point.

[Guest]

How difficult would it be to split "Homegrown" into "Drafted" and "Acquired as a minor leaguer"?

 

It'd take a few minutes, but not that difficult. Here's the list if anyone wants to go through the trouble.

 

Name	Team	Year	WAR	Type
Josh Hamilton	Rangers	2010	8.5	H
Evan Longoria	Rays	2010	7.6	H
Carl Crawford	Rays	2010	7.6	H
Albert Pujols	Cardinals	2010	7.5	H
Joey Votto	Reds	2010	7.3	H
Ryan Zimmerman	Nationals	2010	7.2	H
Adrian Beltre	Red Sox	2010	7	F
Jose Bautista	Blue Jays	2010	6.8	T
Andres Torres	Giants	2010	6.8	F
Matt Holliday	Cardinals	2010	6.7	T
Robinson Cano	Yankees	2010	6.5	H
Rickie Weeks	Brewers	2010	6.5	H
Troy Tulowitzki	Rockies	2010	6.5	H
Carlos Gonzalez	Rockies	2010	6.5	T
Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	2010	6.3	T
Brett Gardner	Yankees	2010	6.1	H
Aubrey Huff	Giants	2010	6	F
Shin-Soo Choo	Indians	2010	5.9	H
Kelly Johnson	Diamondbacks	2010	5.9	F
Joe Mauer	Twins	2010	5.6	H
Angel Pagan	Mets	2010	5.5	T
Chase Utley	Phillies	2010	5.4	H
Jay Bruce	Reds	2010	5.4	H
Jayson Werth	Phillies	2010	5.3	F
Adrian Gonzalez	Padres	2010	5.2	T
Stephen Drew	Diamondbacks	2010	5.1	H
Daric Barton	Athletics	2010	5.1	H
Jason Heyward	Braves	2010	5.1	H
Cliff Lee	- - -	2010	7.2	T
Roy Halladay	Phillies	2010	6.6	T
Ubaldo Jimenez	Rockies	2010	6.4	H
Justin Verlander	Tigers	2010	6.4	H
Josh Johnson	Marlins	2010	6.3	H
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	2010	6.2	H
Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	2010	6.1	H
Francisco Liriano	Twins	2010	6	H
Jered Weaver	Angels	2010	5.8	H
Jon Lester	Red Sox	2010	5.7	H
CC Sabathia	Yankees	2010	5.2	F
Zack Greinke	Royals	2010	5.1	H
Jacoby Ellsbury	Red Sox	2011	9.4	H
Matt Kemp	Dodgers	2011	8.7	H
Jose Bautista	Blue Jays	2011	8.3	T
Dustin Pedroia	Red Sox	2011	8	H
Ryan Braun	Brewers	2011	7.8	H
Ian Kinsler	Rangers	2011	7.7	H
Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	2011	7.3	T
Curtis Granderson	Yankees	2011	7	T
Alex Gordon	Royals	2011	6.9	H
Joey Votto	Reds	2011	6.9	H
Ben Zobrist	Rays	2011	6.6	H
Adrian Gonzalez	Red Sox	2011	6.6	T
Justin Upton	Diamondbacks	2011	6.4	H
Troy Tulowitzki	Rockies	2011	6.3	H
Jose Reyes	Mets	2011	6.2	H
Evan Longoria	Rays	2011	6.1	H
Brandon Phillips	Reds	2011	6	T
Shane Victorino	Phillies	2011	5.9	H
Howie Kendrick	Angels	2011	5.8	H
Adrian Beltre	Rangers	2011	5.7	F
Andrew McCutchen	Pirates	2011	5.7	H
Robinson Cano	Yankees	2011	5.6	H
Alex Avila	Tigers	2011	5.5	H
Prince Fielder	Brewers	2011	5.5	H
Jhonny Peralta	Tigers	2011	5.2	T
Brett Gardner	Yankees	2011	5.1	H
Albert Pujols	Cardinals	2011	5.1	H
Matt Holliday	Cardinals	2011	5	T
Lance Berkman	Cardinals	2011	5	F
Roy Halladay	Phillies	2011	8.2	T
CC Sabathia	Yankees	2011	7.1	F
Justin Verlander	Tigers	2011	7	H
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	2011	6.8	H
Cliff Lee	Phillies	2011	6.7	F
Dan Haren	Angels	2011	6.4	T
C.J. Wilson	Rangers	2011	5.9	H
Jered Weaver	Angels	2011	5.6	H
Doug Fister	- - -	2011	5.6	T
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	2011	5.5	H
Madison Bumgarner	Giants	2011	5.5	H
Matt Cain	Giants	2011	5.2	H
Matt Garza	Cubs	2011	5	T
Ian Kennedy	Diamondbacks	2011	5	T
Chris Carpenter	Cardinals	2011	5	F
Albert Pujols	Cardinals	2009	9	H
Ben Zobrist	Rays	2009	8.7	H
Chase Utley	Phillies	2009	8.2	H
Joe Mauer	Twins	2009	7.9	H
Evan Longoria	Rays	2009	7.6	H
Hanley Ramirez	Marlins	2009	7.4	H
Ryan Zimmerman	Nationals	2009	7.3	H
Derek Jeter	Yankees	2009	7.1	H
Chone Figgins	Angels	2009	6.9	H
Prince Fielder	Brewers	2009	6.4	H
Franklin Gutierrez	Mariners	2009	6.3	T
Adrian Gonzalez	Padres	2009	6.2	T
Carl Crawford	Rays	2009	5.9	H
Kevin Youkilis	Red Sox	2009	5.9	H
Troy Tulowitzki	Rockies	2009	5.7	H
Matt Holliday	- - -	2009	5.6	T
Pablo Sandoval	Giants	2009	5.5	H
Jason Bartlett	Rays	2009	5.5	F
Ichiro Suzuki	Mariners	2009	5.4	F
Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	2009	5.3	T
Derrek Lee	Cubs	2009	5.3	T
Matt Kemp	Dodgers	2009	5.2	H
Nyjer Morgan	- - -	2009	5.2	T
Mark Teixeira	Yankees	2009	5.2	F
Shin-Soo Choo	Indians	2009	5.1	H
Jayson Werth	Phillies	2009	5	F
Dustin Pedroia	Red Sox	2009	5	H
Zack Greinke	Royals	2009	9.3	H
Justin Verlander	Tigers	2009	8.3	H
Tim Lincecum	Giants	2009	8	H
Roy Halladay	Blue Jays	2009	7.4	H
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	2009	6.8	H
Cliff Lee	- - -	2009	6.6	T
Javier Vazquez	Braves	2009	6.5	T
CC Sabathia	Yankees	2009	6.4	F
Jon Lester	Red Sox	2009	6.4	H
Dan Haren	Diamondbacks	2009	6.1	T
Ubaldo Jimenez	Rockies	2009	5.9	H
Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	2009	5.7	H
Josh Johnson	Marlins	2009	5.6	H
Chris Carpenter	Cardinals	2009	5.6	F
Josh Beckett	Red Sox	2009	5.5	T

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Hamilton was homegrown by the Rangers?

[pccubfan]

Players who come from the team's minor league system - Homegrown

Players traded to the team after reaching the Major Leagues - Traded

Players signed as Free Agents from other teams - Free Agent

 

Why limit it to just guys traded after reaching the majors? What about guys traded on the cusp of the majors?

 

Those guys(Hanley and Wainwright, to name two) are still counted, they just get lumped in with Homegrown. The line has to be drawn somewhere, and I thought that was a simple and intuitive enough line.

 

Doesn't that just skew unnecessarily into the "just wait for the farm to work everything out" situation? It's simple, but I'm not sure how intuitive it is to pretend trading for a ready made prospect is the same as drafting/signing/developing your own star. Your theory seems to suggest we should just wait for the farm to do it's work, but if you wait for the farm it's going to take forever. You have to acquire other people's stars if you don't want to wait that long. That is done either via trade, of budding superstars (reasonable), already established pre free agency stars (farm clearers + money), or free agency (money). The Cubs have money, they don't have a farm or the assets to trade for other teams about to arrive superstars. So right now, their only option is to sign free agents. In a couple years maybe they can trade for established stars, and a couple years after that some of their own should be coming through the system.

 

I don't think that my pretty simplistic exercise really directly points to that type of solution. Really, I was trying to point more towards the surprisingly small number of FA's that have star-quality seasons. The difference in "develop your own stars" and "trade for guys who are not yet stars but might/will be soon" isn't terribly important, especially in the context of all the other comments that were made in the original post and the ensuing replies.

 

Based upon your numbers there are roughly three FA signed each season that are 5+ WAR players, assuming that each remains a 5+ WAR player throughout that timespan. Is it really that difficult to determine who the top three or four free agents are and concentrate on signing one of them? It doesn't seem to be all that risky.

[Guest]

Where's the logic? He's skewing a list of players to try and support the notion that the only hope for the Cubs is to build stars from within, which inevitably takes at least 3 years. He threw out the 3 years comment. You and him and a bunch of others are buying into the notion that the Cubs stood no chance of staying in contention in the NL Central in 2012 so they were justified in tanking and it's nothing but a bunch of nonsense.

 

Yes, this is precisely what I was saying. Good grief.

[Tracer Bullet]

Theo isn't responsible for winning this year. If we all can't agree with that, we should have hired some schmuck and continued to tread water forever. Theo inherited a mess.

 

That is such nonsense. He's not responsible for turning this team into a juggernaut this year, but they should win more than they are in-line to win. He inherited a flawed organization. But the pieces were out there to turn this team into at least a respectable club this season without destroying any future hope for greater success.

 

If winning 60 instead of 80 games thus year makes the team significantly better in 2013-14, it's stupid not to do it.

 

It's stupid to suggest that is the case.

 

Didn't take long to get to "you're stupid if you disagree with me" jersey.

[Tracer Bullet]

Hahaha. You must have misread it bc this type of intentional misinterpretation isn't your style.

 

He said if this sitting on your hands style results in 3 years of 75 wins, then that's a problem. I see it as a problem if it results in 1 year of 75 wins, and 2 would be a disaster. I'm not sure why he's willing to wait through 3 of them.

 

Yes. That's not the same as saying he thinks you wait 3 years to evaluate him. That's basic logic which we know TT is entitled to.

 

Where's the logic? He's skewing a list of players to try and support the notion that the only hope for the Cubs is to build stars from within, which inevitably takes at least 3 years. He threw out the 3 years comment. You and him and a bunch of others are buying into the notion that the Cubs stood no chance of staying in contention in the NL Central in 2012 so they were justified in tanking and it's nothing but a bunch of nonsense. If this team had $135 million in guarantees locked into lost players for 2012, well, your only choice was to clean house and essentially tank. But that wasn't the situation. This team isn't/wasn't destined to suck in 2012 until you pass/passed on the one thing you had a chance of acquiring this offseason with available resources, free agents.

 

The excuse making and retroactive justification of avoiding free agency is mind numbing.

 

I apologize, you didn't misread it. You just completely misunderstood.

[pccubfan]

Theo isn't responsible for winning this year. If we all can't agree with that, we should have hired some schmuck and continued to tread water forever. Theo inherited a mess.

 

That is such nonsense. He's not responsible for turning this team into a juggernaut this year, but they should win more than they are in-line to win. He inherited a flawed organization. But the pieces were out there to turn this team into at least a respectable club this season without destroying any future hope for greater success.

 

If winning 60 instead of 80 games thus year makes the team significantly better in 2013-14, it's stupid not to do it.

 

Are you seriously saying that it could be easier to move from a 60 win team to contender than it would be an 80 win team to contender in one offseason?

Edited January 5, 2012 by pccubsfan