Projecting the 2012 Cubs

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm putting this in Transactions because I'd like it to be about what type of acquisitions need to be made for the rest of the offseason. Right now, the Cubs can pretty much field a complete roster with current players. Garza/Dempster/Z/Cashner/Wells make a 5 man rotation, the bullpen remains the same, the bench has in house options for most every spot, and there's a player in place for every position except 1B. With the projections I put in for the current roster, this team is about 2 impact players(4+ WAR) from being in contention, and 3 impact players from a playoff caliber team. Not exactly a rosy picture. I put this into a document below for everyone to play with. Since there's no way to let people edit the document and not save it, I have to ask that no one mess with the copied projections at the bottom. I'd like to keep them there as a point of reference, as accurate or inaccurate as they may be. Otherwise, have fun seeing what happens if we sign Fielder and Castro breaks out for 6 WAR, or how bad we are if we trade Garza for prospects and forfeit 1B for the season. Here's the link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjL2eBSl-d4RdEpNRk1wZl9kb2FBUWpGbUEyYllfLWc

 

 

I'm particularly interested in what scenarios people come up with that put the team In Contention, or even as a Playoff Team. Also, for reference(and since it's something I double checked), if your bench and bullpen goes much above 6-8 WAR, you're probably being a bit too optimistic. Have fun, and share your findings!

[UMFan83]

Wow, this is pretty sweet. I'll play around with it later when I have some time. Thanks!

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Put the baseline at 40 wins, and put LaHair or a generic in for 1.5 wins (generous), and that puts our current roster at 75 wins. I think someone ran a Cairo estimate the other day and had us at 74 (third worst in the NL), so that's right about on track.

 

It's really hard to come up with offseason scenarios at this point that get us to even an 85-win projection, and I'm losing confidence that the NL Central can be taken by a simple 90 wins.

[apete6]

Theo or not, future awesomeness or not, there's really no scenario I can envision where the Cubs don't totally suck next year, especially if they trade Garza.

 

I understand it's going to be a process to build a winner, but going to games next year won't really be any better than going this past year. Castro getting 3 hits and having 12 Old Styles will basically be the only reasons to go.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'll say the same thing as last year. If all the stars align and everything goes our way, we could have a .500ish team on our hands, and in July we could maybe fill some holes. If we could get Soriano, Byrd, Soto, DeJesus, Zambrano, and Dempster to all give us their best and Ian Stewart to finally figure things out, it's possible. Now when I said this last year, we had Pena and Ramirez, who both gave us great years but it wasn't enough to carry the team.

 

In a worlld in which Prince Fielder isn't a possibility, step 1 is to find a 1st baseman. I have no problem with LaHair as a bar off the bench, which would probably be in his best interest as it would take pitchers longer to figure him out. Otherwise, we could go for another Ian Stewart type move and get Daric Barton for hopefully a simial package. If not there's the possibility of Rizzo, but I can't see that happeneing without moving Garza for him which I don't think I'm ready to do. I'm not going to say that Garza will be more vaulable in July, but he certainly won't be any less valuable so maybe we should hang on to him and see where this jalopy goes.

 

I'd also like to see if we could get Wade Davis for Soto and give Castillo the starting catching job. Maybe even expand the deal to get Brignac as well. Rays have said that they want a starting catcher and are willing to move Davis or Niemann for one. I'd even be interested to see what kind of package it would take for a blockbuster in which we acquire Upton, Davis, and Brignac. Perhaps something like Soto, Marmol, Jackson, Soriano(of course we eat 90-100% of the salary) and maybe Junior Lake or something similar and we get some prospects back as well? Again, that's not realistic, just a thought.

 

I do think that we will end up with one of the Cubans, especially if we don't go after Fielder, but it's a big difference between the 2. Cespedes should be ready to step into LF immediately, although who knows what kind of production to expect. The 19 year old Solar would proabably be ready around the same time as Baez, Vogelsbach, Maples, Golden, Wells, et. all.

 

Now if we really want to house clean, we could get a ton of young talent for Garza, Marshall, Soto, and Marmol and a few more smaller pieces for Byrd and Baker. If we are out of it come July, then Dempster and Z should be on the block. However, if we do chose to field a young lineup realistically it could look like:

 

1B Barton

2B Brignac

SS Castro

3B Stewart

LF Cespedes

CF Jackson

RF DeJesus

C Castillo

SP Garza

SP Dempster

SP Z

SP Davis

SP Wells/Shark

CL Cashner

BP Marshall

BP Carpenter

BP Beliveau

BP Dolis

2 BP spots between Castillo, Weathers, Mateo, Wood, Russell, Gaub, J Jax

Bench: Clevenger

Bench: 4 of Barney, LaHair, Bianchi, Baker, DeWitt, Campana

 

Not sure what becomes of Soriano and Byrd in this scenerio.

 

If we were tog et Solar instead of Cespedes, there's the possibility of signing Luke Scott for cheap and platooning him with Soriano. Get what we can for Byrd. He'd be useful to a good tem looking for a 6-7 hitter or a right handed 4th/platoon OF.

[Bruno7481]

I just don't see how Cashner is a starter this year. The workload would be a huge jump for him. I think the more likely scenario is putting him in the bullpen and hopefully having a healthy season. He missed the whole season. He is not a guy with a track record of 175+ inning workloads.

 

Build the arm back up and look for him starting in 2013.

[jersey cubs fan]

I just don't see how Cashner is a starter this year. The workload would be a huge jump for him. I think the more likely scenario is putting him in the bullpen and hopefully having a healthy season. He missed the whole season. He is not a guy with a track record of 175+ inning workloads.

 

Build the arm back up and look for him starting in 2013.

 

I could see him maybe being a starter for 50-ish innings late in the year. But no way he gives the team a full season or anywhere close.

[pccubfan]

Put the baseline at 40 wins, and put LaHair or a generic in for 1.5 wins (generous), and that puts our current roster at 75 wins. I think someone ran a Cairo estimate the other day and had us at 74 (third worst in the NL), so that's right about on track.

 

It's really hard to come up with offseason scenarios at this point that get us to even an 85-win projection, and I'm losing confidence that the NL Central can be taken by a simple 90 wins.

 

I agree. 2012 looks to be a bad year. Hopefully, in the remainder of the offseason we can see some progress towards making the Cubs competitive in 2013. Maybe the Cubs front office will feel better about overpaying for a couple of FA pitchers next offseason.

[sneakypower]

omg TT, i was bored and started screwing around with this a little bit, and the LaHair easter egg just absolutely killed me

[UMFan83]

Bump....Fun using this to project the 2016 Cubs :) I might have gone overboard though.

[Clem Fandango]

LOL @ Koyie Hill