Will the Marlins trade Hanley Ramirez?

[ctcf]

Per rotoworld:

 

Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports that the Marlins have "poked around in the market to get a feel" for potential trade interest in Hanley Ramirez.

The Marlins have said consistently that they have no intention of trading Ramirez, but it seems that they're not totally dismissing the idea. Trading Hanley would likely result in them using that saved money to add another hitter, assuming they didn't get one back in the trade. Ramirez is owed $46.5 million over the next three seasons.

 

And even more importantly, could the Cubs actually construct a package to get him? I'd imagine that if they somehow did, Castro would shift to 2B as Hanley's main reason for leaving is that he had to leave the SS position, which would be fine by me.

[davell]

Straight up for Garza. Sign Prince. Can't afford Darvish now. Sign Edwin Jackson. Sign Cespedes. Trade Byrd. Trade Brett, McNutt, and whatever for Gio. From my plan in other thread, you've added3 impact hitters in one offseason, one pitcher, with a shot at another one turning into one, I guess.

[XZero771679666304]

Per rotoworld:

 

Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports that the Marlins have "poked around in the market to get a feel" for potential trade interest in Hanley Ramirez.

The Marlins have said consistently that they have no intention of trading Ramirez, but it seems that they're not totally dismissing the idea. Trading Hanley would likely result in them using that saved money to add another hitter, assuming they didn't get one back in the trade. Ramirez is owed $46.5 million over the next three seasons.

 

And even more importantly, could the Cubs actually construct a package to get him? I'd imagine that if they somehow did, Castro would shift to 2B as Hanley's main reason for leaving is that he had to leave the SS position, which would be fine by me.

 

Sure the Cubs could put together a package, but it would probably have to start with Garza.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Sure the Cubs could put together a package, but it would probably have to start with Garza.

 

At which point I'm already wondering if the Cubs are overpaying.

 

This offseason has set the marginal cost of a win up to at least $5 million, maybe even more. But let's go with $5 million for now.

 

I think a good WAG for Garza's arbitration awards/salaries the next two years is $20 million. He was a 5.0 fWAR pitcher last year, but that was a huge career year, so let's say he's worth 8 wins the next two years, so that'd put his value at $40 million and his surplus value at $20 million. Throw in another 7.5 million for the value of the draft pick compensation and the right to negotiate with him before anyone else can (that's sort of a WAG, but THBT did do a study on the value of draft picks recently, and that's in the ballpark).

 

So in generic market terms, I'd value Garza as a $27.5 million asset right now.

 

Hanley Ramirez is due $46.5 million over the next three seasons. He'd be in the same compensation/negotiation category as Garza, so in order to match Garza in value he'd have to be projected to exceed his compensation by $20 million over the next three years. That'd be $66.5 million, and at $5 million/win, a total of 13.3 WAR. Can we project Hanley Ramirez as a 4.4 WAR player on the Cubs over the next three years?

 

I'm going to argue no. That's going to sound a little crazy because he's beaten that total every year except for last since 2006. But bear with me.

 

First, I think his defense is clearly declining at SS, and he refuses to be moved off of it. WAR really hates him, and I think it's reasonable to project him at -1.0 win/season defensively at 3b.

 

With the bat, he now needs to be a 5.4 WAR player per year. That's almost exactly what Fangraphs has him averaging the last three years for his total WAR excluding defense.

 

So at this point, it's almost a perfect wash. Now throw in that Ramirez we'll be buying age 29, 30, and 31 seasons from Ramirez, which I would call post-prime years, especially for a guy with 7,000 middle-infield innings on his legs. Garza's almost exactly the same age, but pitchers tend to peak just a bit later, so I think there's more upside on his side. And acquiring Ramirez also diminishes the value of our most valuable asset: Starlin Castro, who would have to move off SS.

 

It just doesn't quite make sense to me. It wouldn't be a terrible move, but I think the value's just a bit negative for the Cubs straight up.

[davell]

Good analysis, Kyle. If I were to seriously consider a deal like this, I think I'd have to find out if Hanley is willing to move to 3B for his new team. If so, you've then got a platoon at 2B with Stewart and Barney as well. I'm on the fence as to whether I'd go through with it. But, if you can add Prince and then make a trade for Gio somehow, I think I'd have to go ahead and bite. That said, my guess is the Marlins would be wanting more than Garza, rightly or wrongly.

[XZero771679666304]

Good analysis, Kyle. If I were to seriously consider a deal like this, I think I'd have to find out if Hanley is willing to move to 3B for his new team. If so, you've then got a platoon at 2B with Stewart and Barney as well. I'm on the fence as to whether I'd go through with it. But, if you can add Prince and then make a trade for Gio somehow, I think I'd have to go ahead and bite. That said, my guess is the Marlins would be wanting more than Garza, rightly or wrongly.

 

 

I think it's pretty safe to assume Hanley won't move to 3B.

[ctcf]

Why would it be so bad moving Castro to 2B?

[Cubswin11]

I am in favor in using Garza in some way to structure a trade for Hanley. Whether it's a direct trade with the Marlins sending Garza there or trading Garza to a team (Rangers, Yankees, Red Sox) and using the prospects acquired to get him. And I don't think moving Starlin is a big deal if you have Hanley at SS. Or even consider moving Starlin to 3B in a few years (Baez to 2B in the a few years hopefully) and allow Starlin to put some muscle/weight on.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why would it be so bad moving Castro to 2B?

 

He's got the yips bad enough as it is. Now you are erasing years of throwing practice and making him make a completely different throw to first.