Tigers sign Prince - 9/214 - Heyman

[Guest]

I think that more frequent front-page articles would be beneficial in terms of getting people to come to the site more frequently.

 

Just my $.02

Absolutely agreed.

[Backtobanks]

I intend to get back to writing for the front page, but I've been on a project in real life that's consuming me for 80+ hours a week right now. Just haven't had the time to write anything with enough thought + quality to post. The project ends after the first week in Feb, so hopefully I'll be back at that point (and get other things done like the FA contest standings and the propsect rankings).

 

For the record, I've invited several people to write for the site, including TT. Unfortunately, most people that I've approached are just similarly busy right now to make a commitment. I'm very interested in recruiting authors, but I want to keep the quality as high as possible. What NSBB offers over starting your own blog is an instant readership of around 20+K unique visitors per month that hit the front page.

 

I've also kicked around the notion of approaching IMB, Trey + Rocket about doing a FJM-type commentary on the media's coverage of the Cubs. I'm just not quite sure I want to piss off the media that deeply!

 

Tim, are you saying NSBB isn't real life? :lol:

[wade]

Also, why the [expletive] are the Tigers insisting that both Cabrera and Fielder play the field when they have a wide open DH spot that both of them would be perfect for? Do they not want them to get their fielding rusty so when Martinez comes back a full year later they won't miss a step in their crappy defense?

 

Yes!

 

I haven't seen many address this on twitter and on sites I that I read. They lost a DH, so just let Fielder and Cabrera rotate between DH and 1B for 2012. They can worry about 2013 when it gets here, and when Martinez is going to be 30-something years old and coming off ACL surgery. I mean, that guy is not gonna be a lock to be a great performer by that point, I wouldn't think.

 

I actually saw a projected lineup that had Ryan Rayburn at DH and Miggy at 3B. If he's in the lineup, why in the world wouldn't they just put Rayburn at 3B?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Also, why the [expletive] are the Tigers insisting that both Cabrera and Fielder play the field when they have a wide open DH spot that both of them would be perfect for? Do they not want them to get their fielding rusty so when Martinez comes back a full year later they won't miss a step in their crappy defense?

 

Yes!

 

I haven't seen many address this on twitter and on sites I that I read. They lost a DH, so just let Fielder and Cabrera rotate between DH and 1B for 2012. They can worry about 2013 when it gets here, and when Martinez is going to be 30-something years old and coming off ACL surgery. I mean, that guy is not gonna be a lock to be a great performer by that point, I wouldn't think.

 

I actually saw a projected lineup that had Ryan Rayburn at DH and Miggy at 3B. If he's in the lineup, why in the world wouldn't they just put Rayburn at 3B?

 

A lot of players don't wan't to DH and prefer playing the field as well. We've only known for a week or so that V Mart would be out for the season, but the Tigers must have had a pretty good idea for a while that it could happen. Therefore, I'm betting that they'd been negotiating with him for a while, probably with similar 5-6 deals as the Nats and Rangers, but once they learned for fact that V Mart would be out, it accelerated the process, and they offered the contract that they did to get him to agree to at least a part time DH role. I know that would give them 2 1st basemen and 2 catchers with only 1 DH spot in 2013, but if Avila has another season like he did last year, they should have no problem trading him.

[jersey cubs fan]

Also, why the [expletive] are the Tigers insisting that both Cabrera and Fielder play the field when they have a wide open DH spot that both of them would be perfect for? Do they not want them to get their fielding rusty so when Martinez comes back a full year later they won't miss a step in their crappy defense?

 

Yes!

 

I haven't seen many address this on twitter and on sites I that I read. They lost a DH, so just let Fielder and Cabrera rotate between DH and 1B for 2012. They can worry about 2013 when it gets here, and when Martinez is going to be 30-something years old and coming off ACL surgery. I mean, that guy is not gonna be a lock to be a great performer by that point, I wouldn't think.

 

I actually saw a projected lineup that had Ryan Rayburn at DH and Miggy at 3B. If he's in the lineup, why in the world wouldn't they just put Rayburn at 3B?

 

Maybe they just want him to play some 3B in spring training just to maintain some flexibility. I can't imagine they will actually line up that way in real games.

[sneakypower]

My take on it

 

I liked it too. Solid article. I would have liked to see you flesh out how you came to the +3 win conclusion at the end (not that I disagree). Are you saying Fielder's bat = 50 runs; Fielder's glove/running = -13 runs; Cabrera at 3B = -13 runs (is that 13 runs worse than what his value at 1b was?) so net is + 24 runs = +3 wins? Or am I missing something?

 

Oh, I totally ballparked the estimate on 3 wins. I probably should have gone into depth to figure out exactly how much better it makes them, but my intent was just to write about why the contract is worrisome.

 

My half-assed thinking, for what it's worth. An Inge/Kelly platoon at 3B is probably worth about 1 WAR. Cabrera at 3B is probably worth about 6 WAR. At 1B he'd have been worth about 7. Fielder stays worth about 5.

 

So 2 wins worse at 1B, 5 wins better at 3B. 3 wins better.

with this, you're essentially saying he's going to be 25 runs worse in the field at 3B than he was at 1B, which seems...pretty unlikely

[Hairyducked Idiot]

with this, you're essentially saying he's going to be 25 runs worse in the field at 3B than he was at 1B, which seems...pretty unlikely

 

I think 25 is probably too much, but not by a ton. 15 is probably reasonable and 25 is within reach.

[sneakypower]

15 is obviously assumed, but i'd still take the over on a -18 projection for him

 

they also stand to gain when they get Delmon Young out of the outfield; Byrd (or Barney) is really a perfect fit

[wade]

Also, why the [expletive] are the Tigers insisting that both Cabrera and Fielder play the field when they have a wide open DH spot that both of them would be perfect for? Do they not want them to get their fielding rusty so when Martinez comes back a full year later they won't miss a step in their crappy defense?

 

Yes!

 

I haven't seen many address this on twitter and on sites I that I read. They lost a DH, so just let Fielder and Cabrera rotate between DH and 1B for 2012. They can worry about 2013 when it gets here, and when Martinez is going to be 30-something years old and coming off ACL surgery. I mean, that guy is not gonna be a lock to be a great performer by that point, I wouldn't think.

 

I actually saw a projected lineup that had Ryan Rayburn at DH and Miggy at 3B. If he's in the lineup, why in the world wouldn't they just put Rayburn at 3B?

 

 

 

Maybe they just want him to play some 3B in spring training just to maintain some flexibility. I can't imagine they will actually line up that way in real games.

 

That's true, and I suppose the interleague games will factor in as well.

[wade]

Also, why the [expletive] are the Tigers insisting that both Cabrera and Fielder play the field when they have a wide open DH spot that both of them would be perfect for? Do they not want them to get their fielding rusty so when Martinez comes back a full year later they won't miss a step in their crappy defense?

 

Yes!

 

I haven't seen many address this on twitter and on sites I that I read. They lost a DH, so just let Fielder and Cabrera rotate between DH and 1B for 2012. They can worry about 2013 when it gets here, and when Martinez is going to be 30-something years old and coming off ACL surgery. I mean, that guy is not gonna be a lock to be a great performer by that point, I wouldn't think.

 

I actually saw a projected lineup that had Ryan Rayburn at DH and Miggy at 3B. If he's in the lineup, why in the world wouldn't they just put Rayburn at 3B?

 

A lot of players don't wan't to DH and prefer playing the field as well. We've only known for a week or so that V Mart would be out for the season, but the Tigers must have had a pretty good idea for a while that it could happen. Therefore, I'm betting that they'd been negotiating with him for a while, probably with similar 5-6 deals as the Nats and Rangers, but once they learned for fact that V Mart would be out, it accelerated the process, and they offered the contract that they did to get him to agree to at least a part time DH role. I know that would give them 2 1st basemen and 2 catchers with only 1 DH spot in 2013, but if Avila has another season like he did last year, they should have no problem trading him.

 

So you think the Tigers had a pretty good idea that Martinez was going to tear his ACL in offseason workouts for a while before it happened?

 

They weren't in on Prince until that injury, is what I'm betting.

[Rob]

My take on it

 

I liked it too. Solid article. I would have liked to see you flesh out how you came to the +3 win conclusion at the end (not that I disagree). Are you saying Fielder's bat = 50 runs; Fielder's glove/running = -13 runs; Cabrera at 3B = -13 runs (is that 13 runs worse than what his value at 1b was?) so net is + 24 runs = +3 wins? Or am I missing something?

 

Oh, I totally ballparked the estimate on 3 wins. I probably should have gone into depth to figure out exactly how much better it makes them, but my intent was just to write about why the contract is worrisome.

 

My half-assed thinking, for what it's worth. An Inge/Kelly platoon at 3B is probably worth about 1 WAR. Cabrera at 3B is probably worth about 6 WAR. At 1B he'd have been worth about 7. Fielder stays worth about 5.

 

So 2 wins worse at 1B, 5 wins better at 3B. 3 wins better.

with this, you're essentially saying he's going to be 25 runs worse in the field at 3B than he was at 1B, which seems...pretty unlikely

Its not just defense. I'm expecting some offensive regression as a result of the move, as well as factoring in a somewhat higher risk of injury.

[Sammy Sofa]

Desire for DH...rising...

[Rob]

Desire for DH...rising...

Gross, why?

[Sammy Sofa]

Because I'm envious of the teams that can even have the "problem" of juggling big hitters between DH and 1B.

 

Lord, the NL is a dumbass dinosaur. Please heal it soon.

[sneakypower]

yeah, like you didn't enjoy watching Garza strike out in 59% of his PA last year and post a .215 OPS

[Sammy Sofa]

It's a readily available solution to help easily make the Cubs a LOT better. Give it to me.

[Rob]

One of the main reasons I've always loved baseball isn't the action. It's the downtime in between.

 

The breaks in the action give us time to stop and think about what might happen. It's time to sit there and think about defensive alignment and pitch sequencing. But more than anything for me, that downtime (in the late innings at least) is spent thinking "what should the manager be doing?" Should he pinch hit? Should there be a pinch runner? Is he going to send the runner? Is he going to call for a sac bunt?

 

I love the strategy of baseball every bit as much as I love the action on the field. The pitcher coming to bat in the late innings is the holy grail of strategic choices. I guess I'm just not ready to part with that.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

One of the main reasons I've always loved baseball isn't the action. It's the downtime in between.

 

The breaks in the action give us time to stop and think about what might happen. It's time to sit there and think about defensive alignment and pitch sequencing. But more than anything for me, that downtime (in the late innings at least) is spent thinking "what should the manager be doing?" Should he pinch hit? Should there be a pinch runner? Is he going to send the runner? Is he going to call for a sac bunt?

 

I love the strategy of baseball every bit as much as I love the action on the field. The pitcher coming to bat in the late innings is the holy grail of strategic choices. I guess I'm just not ready to part with that.

 

I would love all that stuff a whole lot more if variance didn't swallow up 99% of it.

[Guest]

I'd personally sacrifice 5 total PA's from a game(and odds are you get a hit or a sacrifice in 1-3 of those anyway) to get increased strategy from the later innings, but I'm not adamant either way. The two leagues need to be the same though, and this is the chief reason. AL teams have so much more flexibility to take on poor defenders or injury prone players, and with increased interleague play potentially on the horizon, it's a gap that needs to be bridged.

[jersey cubs fan]

On field baseball strategy is checkers. A cat could implement it. There's nothing interesting about what the manager does. I like to see players play the game, not blowhards attempt to justify their position and salary by "making things happen".

[Sammy Sofa]

I understand what Rob is saying and used to completely agree with that line of thinking, but you do have to admit it's pretty ludicrous that the NL exists as this bizarre bastion of "strategy" when pretty much every single other level of professional and amateur baseball has evolved past it (or at least wised up and have the option to use it). I guess they can join arms with the Japanese Central League and proudly march off of a cliff together or something.

 

Plus I think it has a ripple effect and makes it more acceptable/tolerable to have too many shitty players out there because they're "just batting down by the pitcher's spot." Too often the 7-8 spots are just black holes of suck because of the damned #9 spot.

Edited January 25, 2012 by Sammy Sofa

[Guest]

I understand, but you do have to admit it's pretty ludicrous that the NL exists as this bizarre bastion of "strategy" when pretty much every single other level of professional and amateur baseball has evolved past it (or at least wised up and have the option to use it). I guess they can join arms with the Japanese Central League and proudly march off of a cliff together or something.

 

That's a bit of a disingenuous comparison, wouldn't you say? Most minor leagues adopted the DH because they're developmental leagues where it's very beneficial to have the additional hitters in the lineup every day rather than a couple pitcher at bats.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Oh man, if the manager uses this batter, there's a 67%* chance he makes an out. He could instead pinch-hit for him with this batter who only makes an out 64%* of the time.

 

But then, if that batter drives in a run, there's a 4%* chance later in the game that he'll fail to make a defensive play that the guy he replaced would have made!

 

I almost can't handle the drama! There'a a 0.3%* chance that the game, and thus the season, could hinge on this choice!

 

 

 

 

* - all numbers made up

[Sammy Sofa]

I understand, but you do have to admit it's pretty ludicrous that the NL exists as this bizarre bastion of "strategy" when pretty much every single other level of professional and amateur baseball has evolved past it (or at least wised up and have the option to use it). I guess they can join arms with the Japanese Central League and proudly march off of a cliff together or something.

 

That's a bit of a disingenuous comparison, wouldn't you say? Most minor leagues adopted the DH because they're developmental leagues where it's very beneficial to have the additional hitters in the lineup every day rather than a couple pitcher at bats.

 

How is it disingenuous? I want the DH; pretty much everyone except the NL uses it. I really don't care about the details or they reasons why certain leagues have it...I just want consistency and I'm sick of my team playing at a needless disadvantage.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'd personally sacrifice 5 total PA's from a game(and odds are you get a hit or a sacrifice in 1-3 of those anyway) to get increased strategy from the later innings, but I'm not adamant either way. The two leagues need to be the same though, and this is the chief reason. AL teams have so much more flexibility to take on poor defenders or injury prone players, and with increased interleague play potentially on the horizon, it's a gap that needs to be bridged.

 

This. This is the main argument to me.