Tigers sign Prince - 9/214 - Heyman

[Gilby]

One thing I'll say is that the thought that Prince is "entering his prime" is not true.

 

Okay then, what's true?

 

Heavy/fat players tend to really decline around age 30. He might have a few prime years left, but he is almost certainly not entering his prime. Considering Prince is already a bad baserunner and fielder, I'm scared what he's going to be like after age 30.

 

I don't want to speak for davearm2, but I think we both would argue that Fielder isn't necessarily an elite player. Elite players' value don't fluctuate as much as Fielder's has over past seasons.

[Little Slide Rooter]

So between 1B and DH, the Angles have Pujols, Morales, Abreu, and Trumbo. Abreu can still play the occasional outfield, but they also have Trout, Wells, Hunter, and Bourjos. Hunter and Abreu will be clearing out next year, but they'd still have 2 DHs in Trumbo and Morales. If we couldn't get Fielder, I'd be interested in Trumbo, but risk or not, I'd really like to see what Morales would cost.

 

With all of the money invested in Pujols, Wells, Wilson, and Weaver, you'd think they'd be agressively shopping Morales and Trumbo to fill any needs they may have because I doubt that they'll be able to make any more big signings anytime soon.

Edited December 10, 2011 by Little Slide Rooter

[SABR Gamer]

So between 1B and DH, the Angles have Pujols, Morales, Abreu, and Trumbo. Abreu can still play the occasional outfield, but they also have Trout, Wells, Hunter, and Bourjos. Hunter and Abreu will be clearing out next year, but they'd still have 2 DHs in Trumbo and Morales. If we couldn't get Fielder, I'd be ionterested in Trumbo, but risk or not, I'd really like to see what Morales would cost.

 

What is your love for Trumbo about? He really isn't very good.

[mookie]

Trumbo is really not that good. Especially with his perceived value being so high right now. A big big big no thank you on that guy. Kendrys is a huge question mark. One has to think that the Pujols acquisition was made because of a loss of faith in his ability to field properly again. Apparently, that ankle injury is still very cloudy. If we are going to go risky at first, why not Butler? Hell, why not Alonso? These guys blow away Trumbo and Morales IMO.

[Little Slide Rooter]

So between 1B and DH, the Angles have Pujols, Morales, Abreu, and Trumbo. Abreu can still play the occasional outfield, but they also have Trout, Wells, Hunter, and Bourjos. Hunter and Abreu will be clearing out next year, but they'd still have 2 DHs in Trumbo and Morales. If we couldn't get Fielder, I'd be ionterested in Trumbo, but risk or not, I'd really like to see what Morales would cost.

 

What is your love for Trumbo about? He really isn't very good.

 

Love and having interest are 2 very different things. If we miss out on Fielder, we'll be left scrambling for a starting 1st baseman for now and the future. I don't want to give Pena or Kotchman a 3 year deal and I don't want to give up too much for Loney. Trumbo should be at a very reasonable price, but as I said, I'd much rather see what Morales would cost.

[Magnetic Curses]

Trumbo is really not that good. Especially with his perceived value being so high right now. A big big big no thank you on that guy. Kendrys is a huge question mark. One has to think that the Pujols acquisition was made because of a loss of faith in his ability to field properly again. Apparently, that ankle injury is still very cloudy. If we are going to go risky at first, why not Butler? Hell, why not Alonso? These guys blow away Trumbo and Morales IMO.

 

i think lahair would be just as good as trumbo.

[XZero771679666304]

So between 1B and DH, the Angles have Pujols, Morales, Abreu, and Trumbo. Abreu can still play the occasional outfield, but they also have Trout, Wells, Hunter, and Bourjos. Hunter and Abreu will be clearing out next year, but they'd still have 2 DHs in Trumbo and Morales. If we couldn't get Fielder, I'd be ionterested in Trumbo, but risk or not, I'd really like to see what Morales would cost.

 

What is your love for Trumbo about? He really isn't very good.

 

Love and having interest are 2 very different things. If we miss out on Fielder, we'll be left scrambling for a starting 1st baseman for now and the future. I don't want to give Pena or Kotchman a 3 year deal and I don't want to give up too much for Loney. Trumbo should be at a very reasonable price, but as I said, I'd much rather see what Morales would cost.

 

Scoscia has a real hard on for Trumbo, so I don't see him being made available. Morales is a better target and more likely to be available.

[XZero771679666304]

Trumbo is really not that good. Especially with his perceived value being so high right now. A big big big no thank you on that guy. Kendrys is a huge question mark. One has to think that the Pujols acquisition was made because of a loss of faith in his ability to field properly again. Apparently, that ankle injury is still very cloudy. If we are going to go risky at first, why not Butler? Hell, why not Alonso? These guys blow away Trumbo and Morales IMO.

 

i think lahair would be just as good as trumbo.

 

Probably.

[Backtobanks]

2 year plan. I honestly don't care what we do at the major league level in 2012. But, we'll have a decent squad, in all likelihood at the major league level. with the money we have coming off this year and next, we can add 2 impact bats and 2 impact arms. It's what we SHOULD do. As I mentioned earlier, one of these guys will probably have to come through trade, just to keep us from adding 80 mill in payroll on 4 guys.

 

What we have

 

Pitching- by 2013, we'll have Garza. Maybe. If you trade him, you better bring an elite arm in return that's ready to go in 2013 as well. We may have Cashner, Shark, or McNutt ready to fill a spot by then. But, it's a 4/5 spot.

 

What we need

 

Pitching- 2 elite arms through trade or FA. Take your pick of Darvish or a trade for this winter. It's our only option to address this right now. We'll probably need a back of the rotation guy as well, so hopefully we find a trade for a Wade Davis or someone, who at least has the ability to turn into more than what we acquired them to be. Wei Yen Chen makes sense here as well. If Theo is completely sold Edwin Jackson's got it in him to be a top of the rotation guy, he needs to go get him, because his market is slow to develop and he may come cheaper than we were thinking. Leaving us more money to spend elsewhere. Definitely a risk though.

 

Next year's FA class offers much more, at least right now. Some of these guys will re-up, but some will be out there as well. Matt Cain, John Danks, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy, Anibal Sanchez. I'd make a bet right now at least ONE of those 8 guys is in our rotation by 2013. Could even be 2 of them. Obviously, not all are "aces" but all are or should be very solid front of the rotation guys.

 

I'm not mentioning the bullpen here, by the way, because I think that even if lose Marmol, we've got the makings of a very nice pen. Plenty of young power arms to play around with here. No big money should or will be tied up here.

 

Catching- We've got Soto and CAN have him in 2013. If we do, I hope it's his last season with us, because I don't want to give him a 3 year deal or so at that point. Perfect world has Castillo giving us very cheap solid production. Or maybe we draft Zunino and he's ready mid 2014 somehow and we either use Soto or a stopgap if Soto is dealt between now and then. Probably not adding your bigtime bat here.

 

What we need out of Catcher- What we're getting is fine, I doubt we find an impact bat here.

 

Corner Infield- Obviously, you want Fielder to be one of these impact bats. Mainly because there's not many out there and even less next year. May have to acquire the bat through trade and buy the pitching. 3B is not really an option through FA between now and then. Trade for Wright on last year of his deal? Doubtful, not worth it. Hope Stewart gets it going. Otherwise, we're probably looking at another stopgap in 2013 or Vitters or Lake. Neither of which has inspired me to not worry about 3B longterm as of yet.

 

What we need out of the Corners- At least one and maybe both of the impact bats come from here. My guess is just one at 1B, since 3B production has become very scarce.

 

 

 

Middle Infield- Castro is not moving between now and then. Sticking at SS and we're so lucky to have him. Can't say that enough. Barney? He's fine, but I hope we've upgraded by then personally. Kendrick and Phillips are both FA in 2012, but both could resign. Trade for a bat is about the only option I see here as well, if we want to do something.

 

What we need out of the Middle Infield

 

Castro is elite and we're getting that production at a bargain. It'd be nice to have more offense out of 2B, but it's not totally necessary, unless we can't find it elsewhere.

 

 

Outfield- My guess is we'll be rid of Soriano by then. If not, he's just kind of in the way. I'm counting on Brett Jackson to be a decent CF. I bet Theo is as well. We'll have DeJesus in RF and LF is open. Brett could move there and leave CF open. Either way, we've got an opening. Cespedes could be the big bat here. So could BJ Upton next year. I seriously doubt Texas lets Hamilton walk. Our only other potential big bat in the OF is Andre Ethier.

 

What we need out of the OF

 

Pressure on Brett Jackson to become a decent OBP, decent power, decent speed, cheap guy for one. But, I think he will become just that and give us great cheap production. DeJesus is what he is, so we need an impact bat at the other spot. A guy that's going to hit behind or in front of Prince almost definitely has to come from this spot.

 

 

Like I said, if we add 4 big pieces, it's probably going to be 3 through FA and one through trade. So, here's the puzzle, fill it in your own.

 

SP Garze, blank, blank, cheap blank, Cashner, Shark, or McNutt

 

BP Not worried about it, we've got the arms here

 

C blank or Soto or Castillo

1B blank, hopefully Prince

2B blank or Barney

SS Castro

3B blank or Stewart/Vitters/Lake

LF blank

CF B Jackson

RF DeJesus

 

Make the 4 bigtime upgrades wherever you want. In total, you've probably got 70 mill or so to do it AND still spend decently on IFA as well this winter. 3 20 mill guys and a traded for 10 mill guy. Payroll will be sustainable by doing this as well. And we've got a serious contender by then and going forward as well.

 

Getting to this stage though, is more important to me than just 2012. So yes, I want us to add what we can right now, but not at the expense of the 4 big additions by next offseason. Basically, I don't want 2 or 3 year deals on average pitching or hitting that takes away money from this plan. Sign one year stopgaps to keep from doing that. I want a team that's fairly young going forward, heading to, or are in their primes. Prince, Cespedes, and Darvish fit those parameters. No other FA really did or does this year. Go get them, or it leaves that much more to do next year, without as many options to do it.

 

Your explanation is why Theo & Co. have to get moving pretty soon. You've got a ton of holes in your proposal for 2013 and while we will have more money to spend, there's no guarantee that we will win any bidding wars or that wanted FAs won't re-sign before hitting free agency. Also, the other problem with "going young" is that Cespedes, Darvis, Stewart/Vitters/Lake, Jackson, Shark (as a SP), and McNutt have yet to prove they have ML ability.

[Rob]

I'm not afraid of a 6-8 year deal for a guy that can be expected to age well. Fielder ain't that guy.

 

But like I said, you never know the next time that a 27 year old elite player will even be available regardless of their physical build.

That may be true, but it's not a compelling argument for entering into a contract you think will turn out to be a mistake.

 

I have no reason not to believe that Fielder doesnt have at least 4-5 prime years left. Could be more. Would you really be upset if we got 4-5 prime years of Fielder and then he hits an early decline around age 33? He'd still be young enough where we could send him off to DH.

 

The normal prime of a player doesn't last until 31-32... so even if you discount the "heavy players age more quickly" proofs, there would be absolutely no reason to suspect he has at least 4-5 prime years left. That statement demonstrates a willful ignorance of a lot of basic tenets of player development.

 

In all likelihood, Fielder is on the tail end of his prime already.

 

I'm not saying don't sign him. Preaching caution around these parts has a way of being misconstrued. But the length of contract that most here would be willing to offer is almost certainly a mistake. Anything over 6 years is more likely to hurt our team than help it.

[CubsWin]

I'm not afraid of a 6-8 year deal for a guy that can be expected to age well. Fielder ain't that guy.

 

But like I said, you never know the next time that a 27 year old elite player will even be available regardless of their physical build.

That may be true, but it's not a compelling argument for entering into a contract you think will turn out to be a mistake.

 

I have no reason not to believe that Fielder doesnt have at least 4-5 prime years left. Could be more. Would you really be upset if we got 4-5 prime years of Fielder and then he hits an early decline around age 33? He'd still be young enough where we could send him off to DH.

 

The normal prime of a player doesn't last until 31-32... so even if you discount the "heavy players age more quickly" proofs, there would be absolutely no reason to suspect he has at least 4-5 prime years left. That statement demonstrates a willful ignorance of a lot of basic tenets of player development.

 

In all likelihood, Fielder is on the tail end of his prime already.

 

I'm not saying don't sign him. Preaching caution around these parts has a way of being misconstrued. But the length of contract that most here would be willing to offer is almost certainly a mistake. Anything over 6 years is more likely to hurt our team than help it.

Completely agreed. I think 5 years would be ideal and 6 would be the compromise to get it done. Anything beyond 6 just shouldn't be agreed to with Prince.

[XZero771679666304]

With rare exception, you don't get the opportunity to sign players through their entire prime. You have to reconcile with the fact you'll have to pay more than a player is worth for some portion of their contract.

 

The question becomes how you mitigate the potential damage. I think there are some ways to get creative with a potential contract with Prince and still give him the 6-8 year deal he wants. I think some combination of vesting options and/or opt out clauses can be added to give him the deal he and Boras want (at least on the surface) without taking too big a risk.

[Bull]

I'll even say this: Now that Boras has watched Pujols get his 10 year deal, unless we're ready to go 6/180 on Prince or something like that, we're going to need to give him 7 and maybe 8 years. but, it's going to be 200 mill.

 

If Hamels hit the open market, he'd get 7 years from someone, maybe 8. Cain too. Greinke probably gets 6, because of the social anxiety issue in the back of everyone's minds. Danks will get 5 or 6. I think guys like McCarthy and Sanchez get more than 2-3 year deals as well. Maybe much more, depending on how well their seasons go. Liriano is a wildcard obviously. Marcum is a bit older, but still could see him getting 4 or 5 years. He certainly would have if he were available right now. Considering Buehrle just got 4 especially and he's older.

 

Remember Buehrle only got 4 because of how weak the rest of the SP market is. In the 2012 FA class I doubt he'd get that.

Isn't that backward? if there's a shortage, that should give the player more leverage, no?

[CincyCubsFan]

With rare exception, you don't get the opportunity to sign players through their entire prime. You have to reconcile with the fact you'll have to pay more than a player is worth for some portion of their contract.

 

The question becomes how you mitigate the potential damage. I think there are some ways to get creative with a potential contract with Prince and still give him the 6-8 year deal he wants. I think some combination of vesting options and/or opt out clauses can be added to give him the deal he and Boras want (at least on the surface) without taking too big a risk.

 

Exactly. It's the nature of the beast. It's not as if there is a laundry list of 23-25 year old future star free agents that we're going to be able to sign to the ideal contract. Part of the deal you have to live with is that you may get a couple of less-than-elite years at the tail end of a contract.

[TruffleShuffle]

One thing I'll say is that the thought that Prince is "entering his prime" is not true.

 

Okay then, what's true?

 

Heavy/fat players tend to really decline around age 30. He might have a few prime years left, but he is almost certainly not entering his prime. Considering Prince is already a bad baserunner and fielder, I'm scared what he's going to be like after age 30.

 

30 is a little early. prince's dad kind of leveled off through about 32-33 and then got bad quickly. john kruk was quite good through his age 32 season and then dropped off. mo vaughn dropped off after age 30, but his knees were fucked up (probably from being fat). david ortiz peaked at ages 29-31 (probably steroid-related) but was still quite good last season.

 

i'd have no problem going 6 years with prince, taking him through his age 33 season. even if he drops off like ortiz/kruk in the last two years of his contract, you've probably still got an above-average hitter. hopefully you get enough in the first 4-5 years of the deal to make that last year or two not matter so much.

[dew1679666265]

I don't want to speak for davearm2, but I think we both would argue that Fielder isn't necessarily an elite player. Elite players' value don't fluctuate as much as Fielder's has over past seasons.

 

He definitely is an elite hitter, however. His worst wOBA of his career was .354, which came in his rookie season at age 22. He's been between .370 and .420 since then. I'm not discounting defense with this post, but with the stress Theo/Hoyer are putting on defense and with incumbents Starlin and Barney already in the infield, the rest of the defense should be good enough to keep Prince's defense from hurting as much as it would if we had all around poor infield defense. Stewart helps as well, though not as much as Headley would have.

 

Pujols being more of a complete player is the biggest reason I preferred him to Prince (even with the contract Pujols received, I still wanted him), but this team needs an elite bat and Prince is definitely that.

[dew1679666265]

My hope at this point with the first base situation is that either the Cubs or Mariners sign Prince. If we get Prince, that's the ideal scenario. However, if somebody's going to beat us out then I hope it's Seattle - the reason being that might make Justin Smoak available and I'd hope Theo/Hoyer would jump all over that option.

 

In all honesty, I haven't seen another option that's even mildly appealing. From the names I've seen tossed around outside of Prince and Smoak - LaHair, Trumbo, Kotchman, Pena, Loney - there's a whole lot of really bad options. Moreland I guess could be a moderately decent option, but in his only full ML season he wasn't good. Morales would probably be third best option (behind Prince and Smoak) if he can play anymore - but there's a lot of doubt there apparently.

[Rob]

With rare exception, you don't get the opportunity to sign players through their entire prime. You have to reconcile with the fact you'll have to pay more than a player is worth for some portion of their contract.

 

The question becomes how you mitigate the potential damage. I think there are some ways to get creative with a potential contract with Prince and still give him the 6-8 year deal he wants. I think some combination of vesting options and/or opt out clauses can be added to give him the deal he and Boras want (at least on the surface) without taking too big a risk.

 

I don't disagree with you in the slightest. I'm not one of those "look how overpaid he'll be in years 6-8" guys. I'm not even one of those "he was paid 10 mil more than he was worth -- BUST" types. I just find myself arguing for no apparent reason (it is the internet after all) when I hear people suggesting he's worth signing to a 7-8 year contract with that much guaranteed money. There has to reach a point where it's no longer a good idea to sign him.

 

We should be able to get something done. I'd like for us to get something done. But if the Mariners come out and offer him 8/170 guaranteed... well, I'd hope this board would understand why topping that would be an awful idea.

[doschi]

Am I the only one that thinks that the recent allegations surrounding Ryan Braun may have at least a minor impact on the Fielder negotiations?

 

The NL Central just got a bit more interesting, depending on how a whole lot of chess moves pan out.

[XZero771679666304]

Am I the only one that thinks that the recent allegations surrounding Ryan Braun may have at least a minor impact on the Fielder negotiations?

 

The NL Central just got a bit more interesting, depending on how a whole lot of chess moves pan out.

 

 

If you're referring to the Braun news motivating the Brewers to up their offer to Prince, I don't see that happening. Braun potentially being suspended won't give them additional resources, at least not nearly enough to make a difference.

 

The Cardinals won't be in play regardless.

 

This improves the Cubs chances incrementally, but not enough to motivate Jed/Theo to do something significant they otherwise wouldn't, IMO. Having said that, I think the Cubs will make a play for Fielder regardless.

 

But you don't drastically alter your big picture plans because Braun will miss 50 games next year.

[Backtobanks]

Am I the only one that thinks that the recent allegations surrounding Ryan Braun may have at least a minor impact on the Fielder negotiations?

 

The NL Central just got a bit more interesting, depending on how a whole lot of chess moves pan out.

 

 

If you're referring to the Braun news motivating the Brewers to up their offer to Prince, I don't see that happening. Braun potentially being suspended won't give them additional resources, at least not nearly enough to make a difference.

 

The Cardinals won't be in play regardless.

 

This improves the Cubs chances incrementally, but not enough to motivate Jed/Theo to do something significant they otherwise wouldn't, IMO. Having said that, I think the Cubs will make a play for Fielder regardless.

 

But you don't drastically alter your big picture plans because Braun will miss 50 games next year.

 

Braun will miss 50 games and might come back with the power of Ryan Theriot.

[C.C.]

Am I the only one that thinks that the recent allegations surrounding Ryan Braun may have at least a minor impact on the Fielder negotiations?

 

 

Yes

[Little Slide Rooter]

Am I the only one that thinks that the recent allegations surrounding Ryan Braun may have at least a minor impact on the Fielder negotiations?

 

 

Yes

 

It actually did somewhat cross my mind but If the Brewers can get Fielder back it will be at their price, and if Braun misses time it will be 50 games which will have a substantial impact on their 2011 season but not so much the life of the contract. If anything it could push them to sign or trade for a cheap outfielder who upon Brauns return could be either traded or be a solid bench bat. A Marlon Byrd type perhaps.

[hawkeyecub]

Hell 84 games could be enough to win the division next year. Let's get this tubby bastard signed.

[C.C.]

Am I the only one that thinks that the recent allegations surrounding Ryan Braun may have at least a minor impact on the Fielder negotiations?

 

 

Yes

 

It actually did somewhat cross my mind but If the Brewers can get Fielder back it will be at their price, and if Braun misses time it will be 50 games which will have a substantial impact on their 2011 season but not so much the life of the contract. If anything it could push them to sign or trade for a cheap outfielder who upon Brauns return could be either traded or be a solid bench bat. A Marlon Byrd type perhaps.

 

Which is why it'll never happen.