Trading Soriano

[Guest]

If the Cubs are paying 90+% of the contract, then the length of the contract is of absolutely zero consequence. None at all. If Soriano is essentially being traded to a team for 2.5 years at 4 million dollars total, then they can release him after that first half season and have virtually no impact on payroll. it'd be no different than declining a team option that had a buyout.

 

As for the performance argument, taking the middle of the road assumption that Soriano is a 2-3 win player going forward, then having him for 2.5 years is 7+ WAR of value, or 35+ million. And they're paying 4 million for it. Now it's true that the closer you get to replacement level, the easier it is to add that value without paying the FA premium. But to get someone with Soriano's raw ability, that clearly still has the potential for a 4-5 win season, is a more certain asset than diving through the waiver wire. So while teams could probably approximate Soriano's value by making the right acquisition elsewhere, that doesn't invalidate the value he would require in trade if his contract is being paid almost in full. You wouldn't say "why would you pay a free agent pitcher any money, the Rangers got Colby Lewis for nothing! The Giants and Ryan Vogelsong too!" The same principle applies to Soriano, if he's being traded with essentially no contract.

 

I get what he's saying, though. It's just a really weird way of saying that, because he has ~$45M on his contract left, the amount of money the Cubs are going to pay is going to require a return in prospects that teams probably won't want to pay. And if the Cubs pay that much, they're expecting that much in return in prospects.

 

A REALLY weird way of saying it. It's really the total dollars that he is talking about, which are obviously driven up by the years left.

[Guest]

Well yeah, that's been said all along, there needs to be some measure of cost savings or player value in return from a Soriano trade for it to be worth it. But when we're going with the assumption that the Cubs are paying a huge percentage of the contract, then the years are of absolutely zero consideration. It's like trading for that rental player then having free team options for the next two years.

[Banedon]

Rick (San Diego)

 

The Cubs are trying to move three guys: Garza, Dempster, and Soriano. What sort of yield are can they expect to get for that between now and August 1?

Jayson Stark (12:44 PM)

 

A couple of good young players for Garza. One for Dempster. Zilch for Soriano. That's my take, anyway.

[Backtobanks]

Rick (San Diego)

 

The Cubs are trying to move three guys: Garza, Dempster, and Soriano. What sort of yield are can they expect to get for that between now and August 1?

Jayson Stark (12:44 PM)

 

A couple of good young players for Garza. One for Dempster. Zilch for Soriano. That's my take, anyway.

 

It all depends on your definition of "good".

[Banedon]

Rick (San Diego)

 

The Cubs are trying to move three guys: Garza, Dempster, and Soriano. What sort of yield are can they expect to get for that between now and August 1?

Jayson Stark (12:44 PM)

 

A couple of good young players for Garza. One for Dempster. Zilch for Soriano. That's my take, anyway.

 

It all depends on your definition of "good".

 

Or zilch.

[TheDude]

If the Cubs are paying 90+% of the contract, then the length of the contract is of absolutely zero consequence. None at all. If Soriano is essentially being traded to a team for 2.5 years at 4 million dollars total, then they can release him after that first half season and have virtually no impact on payroll. it'd be no different than declining a team option that had a buyout.

Respectfully disagree. The more the Cubs eat, the higher the price the Cubs demand on the return. If the Cubs eat 90%, the cost paid by the other organization is in player value, not dollars. You can say 'zero consequence' on the dollars and be correct, but not on the player value given since the cost paid in the trade wasn't in dollars. The other organization risks sending a player of value for a half-season rental since the Cubs will demand a higher price. I'm talking about the years in trade value evaluation. If you want to rephrase as total contract value, that's fair.

[biittner77]

And-assuming his production will stay like this over the next two seasons-where are teams going to get that production for $1m per year?

 

From the prospect that they won't trade for Soriano, if I'm reading him correctly.

 

What we don't know regarding Soriano is what the asking price has been. It's been reported that teams want the Cubs to pay all but 2 million of his remaining salary. If that's the case, than it's not worth it to the Cubs unless they get a player that actually has some legitimate upside.

 

Think of it this way: if roles were reversed and the Cubs were trying to get someone like Soriano, who from our minor league system would you be willing to give up if the other team ate virtually all of the player's salary?

[23sharks]

And-assuming his production will stay like this over the next two seasons-where are teams going to get that production for $1m per year?

 

From the prospect that they won't trade for Soriano, if I'm reading him correctly.

 

What we don't know regarding Soriano is what the asking price has been. It's been reported that teams want the Cubs to pay all but 2 million of his remaining salary. If that's the case, than it's not worth it to the Cubs unless they get a player that actually has some legitimate upside.

 

Think of it this way: if roles were reversed and the Cubs were trying to get someone like Soriano, who from our minor league system would you be willing to give up if the other team ate virtually all of the player's salary?

 

That's the way I see it too. Soriano can still hit 25-30 HR, and drive in 80-100 runs. If the team that trades for him is only paying him $2M a season, that is a bargain, and they should give up a decent prospect for him.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I have to assume that Carlos Quentin's extension is good for the Soriano market. Not sure who else is out there for teams looking for offense.

[Cubswin11]

Padres extended Carlos Quentin has to boost Soriano's trade value a little as it's one less OF bat on the market in a market where few OF bats with power are available.

[neely crenshaw]

with soriano there is no reason to rush to beat the deadline because he certainly will go through..if not, let him go. With his play this year I don't think it makes much sense to eat 90% of his deal unless you are getting prospects that you really want. I would not like to see a volstad type deal to simply hope something worked. the problem is his salary not his production. if you take on most of his salary, you keep the problem. As for blocking jackson, right now there is nothing that says he will produce as well as soriano is. so you would have less of a player (at least short term), and still have the contract.

bottom line is if the best you can get is a player you don't want, and still are paying 90%, he's been your best offensive player so far, and you are at least another year from doing anything, probably more, there is no reason to drop your drawers to deal him.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I doubt that blocking Jackson enters into it. Striking out every other AB is blocking Jackson. The fact is that whatever Soriano does the next 2 plus seasons, he'll be earning $19 million doing it, and the Cubs will be paying at least 90% of it. I simply can't imagine him being a Cub by the time they're ready to contend. This being said, this is likely the last chance to get anything in return for him, even if it's just a few lottery tickets, and we're not talking the Mega Millions.

[C.C.]

I can't believe more teams aren't clamoring for Sori? 2M for the production is giving, the market should be hot or him.

[Cubswin11]

Maybe Theo/Jed/Ricketts aren't as open to eating as much of his contract right now with how he's produced lately and are seeing if a team desperate for offense is willing to swoop in a take on more of his salary

[Little Slide Rooter]

I think that with the Cubs willing to take on over 90%

Of his salary, they're asking for something unreasonable in return. If not, I can't imagine them not being able to move him.

[Post Count Padder]

At least one team has inquired about Alfonso Soriano, Morosi reports. The Cubs outfielder earns $18MM per season through 2014, so the Cubs will presumably cover most of his salary in a trade.

[DiamondMind]

I'm baffled how teams like the Pirates aren't interested in Soriano.

[Clem Fandango]

I'm baffled how teams like the Pirates aren't interested in Soriano.

 

They just brought up Starling Marte, they don't really need someone like Soriano just yet. If they go after him it'd be on waivers after Marte proves whether or not he can handle MLB pitching this year, and even then I doubt they'd target him

[neely crenshaw]

i don't see a reason to pay 90% of his salary unless you are getting something you truly want back. he has arguably been their best player this year, he does not seem to be a cancer like zambrano. it seems like you could either pay a heck of a lot less of his salary, and get a volstad like gamble or get something good paying 90% of his deal.

[Sammy Sofa]

he has arguably been their best player this year

 

According to Fangraphs, yes (offensively). According to BR, no.

[neely crenshaw]

he has arguably been their best player this year

 

According to Fangraphs, yes (offensively). According to BR, no.

 

 

i was talking offensively. he also hasn't been a butcher in the field but his best chance is as a DH in the AL, if for no other reason than it would give him a chance to have value until the end of his contract.

I can understand giving him away to lose his salary, i can understand paying part of his salary for prospects you really want, but I don't see why you would give him away and pay most of his salary.

[dfnowak]

Another edition of "I Can't Believe Phil Rodgers Gets Paid to Write This":

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-your-morning-phil-soriano-dempster-williams-20120727,0,2866948.column

 

The Rays need Alfonso Soriano, and while Theo Epstein’s focus has seemed to be on Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza, the hope is that Epstein and Jed Hoyer are also working on a deal that would give Tampa Bay a much needed DH and open up left field for Brett Jackson or someone else.

 

Here’s the proposal: Soriano, Bryan LaHair, Geovany Soto and $22 million for Luke Scott or Pena, Chris Archer, Tim Beckham and another two or three prospects. Scott or Pena comes to the Cubs strictly to offset salary for this season and open room for Soriano, and they go off the books after this season; the $22 million is to pay $11 million of the $18 million Soriano is due in 2013 and ’14 (roughly what Soriano costs over what the Rays gave Pena, as LaHair will be a low-cost replacement at first base).

 

Yes, that would be Carlos Pena

[abuck1220]

that is atrocious.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

If there's anything this current team is missing, it's Carlos Pena.

[weis21]

If there's anything this current team is missing, it's Carlos Pena.

:lol: