BA & BP's Cubs Top Prospect Lists

[toonsterwu]

out of curiosity, and partly to try and move the conversation in a different direction, how exactly do you think Brett Jackson will do JCF? No more floor/ceiling - just how do you think he'll perform, say, next year, and in his prime years.

[jersey cubs fan]

out of curiosity, and partly to try and move the conversation in a different direction, how exactly do you think Brett Jackson will do JCF? No more floor/ceiling - just how do you think he'll perform, say, next year, and in his prime years.

 

How exactly? Not going to bother getting specific but I'm pretty high on the guy and think he'll be a pretty good CF. I do fear he's got a bit more bust in him than some may think, but I like the guy.

[davell]

If I'm looking at a floor for Brett, it'd be that he struggles so badly against lefties, he's the important part of a platoon. Without looking, but if he put up a .250/,340/,430 line for 120 games or so, I'd guess 2 WAR? I don't think this is what he'll do, but I think this is worst case, for his prime.

[sneakypower]

If I'm looking at a floor for Brett, it'd be that he struggles so badly against lefties, he's the important part of a platoon. Without looking, but if he put up a .250/,340/,430 line for 120 games or so, I'd guess 2 WAR? I don't think this is what he'll do, but I think this is worst case, for his prime.

that line (.339 wOBA) for 525 PA and average defense at CF would still be good for 3 WAR

[toonsterwu]

On a non-Brett topic ... he isn't a top prospect, but while I was taking care of some errands earlier, I kept thinking, is Rebel Ridling perhaps a bit under-appreciated? Not necessarily under-rated, but under-appreciated, at least, relative to his 2011 campaign. Let's assume

 

a) His peak isn't a true indicator of his true ability, but rather 2 really hot months

 

but

 

b) That his peak indicates that his ability might be a bit better than his 3 down months, particularly from a power perspective (this is a bigger assumption obviously)

 

If you accept both assumptions, if he's anything slightly better than his down months, he's still mildly intriguing. An athletic enough guy who can play corner OF, with a solid glove at first, and good raw power. I don't anticipate that he'll ever be able to adjust his swing enough to hit for a high enough average, but I could really see him put up monster numbers in PCL next year. As an interesting comparison, look at Ridling's numbers in AA Tennessee vs. Rizzo's numbers in AA Portland and look at the month by month splits (not saying Ridling is as good as Rizzo, and the 4 year age difference is a gigantic gap, but it's an interesting comparison of numbers).

 

Again, not saying Ridling is top 30, or even top 40 (borderline), but just that he might be a touch under-appreciated.

[Guest]

Jackson's floor is striking out in 35% of his AB's and not being able to crack the mendoza line.

 

K-Rate in upper minors:

 

A+: 20.2%

AA: 24.2% (approximate combined)

AAA: 29.8%

 

 

That doesn't make it his projection for his prime. But there's significant bust potential with him.

[sneakypower]

Jackson's floor is striking out in 35% of his AB's and not being able to crack the mendoza line.

 

K-Rate in upper minors:

 

A+: 20.2%

AA: 24.2% (approximate combined)

AAA: 29.8%

 

 

That doesn't make it his projection for his prime. But there's significant bust potential with him.

Drew Stubbs strikes out in 32% of his AB and is still a productive MLBer, and we already know Jackson will K less than Stubbs

 

even Brandon Wood, Chris Davis and Dallas McPherson haven't been able to achieve the ignominy of a 35% K/AB; you'd probably have to go to the plate blindfolded to reach that level of ineptitude

[davell]

Frankie Piliere's Scout top 100 list just came up. Brett is 34th, Baez is 65th, and Szczur is 82nd. Some very off the wall rankings though, other than ours. Banuelos is 9th, for instance. Betances is 28th. Jacob Turner is 11th, by the way.

[toonsterwu]

If you believe in Banuelos as a starter, and buy that he'll iron out his command and sharpern up his breaking ball, I can see a case that high. It's a bit hard to swallow right now, but I can see the case. Power lefty starters are hard to find.

[Guest]

Jackson's floor is striking out in 35% of his AB's and not being able to crack the mendoza line.

 

K-Rate in upper minors:

 

A+: 20.2%

AA: 24.2% (approximate combined)

AAA: 29.8%

 

 

That doesn't make it his projection for his prime. But there's significant bust potential with him.

Drew Stubbs strikes out in 32% of his AB and is still a productive MLBer, and we already know Jackson will K less than Stubbs

 

even Brandon Wood, Chris Davis and Dallas McPherson haven't been able to achieve the ignominy of a 35% K/AB; you'd probably have to go to the plate blindfolded to reach that level of ineptitude

how on earth do we know that he'll strike out less than Stubbs?

[TruffleShuffle]

ok we don't KNOW it, but it's extremely unlikely. stubbs strikes out about as frequently a professional baseball player (who isn't a pitcher) can strike out.

[imb]

mark reynolds struck out 223 [expletive] times and didn't hit 35%

[ctcf]

So when do new rankings usually come out?

[Guest]

So when do new rankings usually come out?

 

Which rankings? BA and BP already came out.

[ctcf]

So when do new rankings usually come out?

 

Which rankings? BA and BP already came out.

 

Oh, derp then

[Guest]

So when do new rankings usually come out?

 

Which rankings? BA and BP already came out.

 

Oh, derp then

 

BA is on page 1, BP is on page 3. Neither include Torreyes, Rizzo or Cates.

[toonsterwu]

Having a tough time figuring out where to place Cates. Could go as high as back end of the top 10, and will probably be in the top 20. I'll go with Rizzo 2nd, but I imagine many here will put him first.

[davell]

Put this in IFA thread by mistake, but Callis has Rizzo 42nd on personal top 50. Brett is 28th and Baez is somewhere between them.

[Rob]

Having a tough time figuring out where to place Cates. Could go as high as back end of the top 10, and will probably be in the top 20. I'll go with Rizzo 2nd, but I imagine many here will put him first.

 

Edit:

 

Ninja'd.

 

For me, it'll be pretty close to a coin flip situation.

[toonsterwu]

Well, I decided to start Cates at 15th and see how I feel about it. Part of it is that I like Beeler.

[Rob]

I asked Callis where he would rank Cates. He said 21-30 range, around Ben Wells.

[davell]

As far as organizations go, after this trade, I've got us higher than the Reds, Indians, Twins, Astros, Tigers, Phillies, Brewers, Giants, White Sox, Mets, Angels, Marlins, and Dodgers. 17th is where I've got us right now, this trade(Rizzo/Cates) put us ahead of the Dodgers, Mets, Angels, Twins, and Tigers. A Garza trade would put us ahead of Baltimore, St Louis, the Yanks, Rockies, Nats, and Boston, in my eyes. Adding Soler as well would put us into the top 10.

[El Duderino]

i'd say we'll definitely be in the top 10 by the trading deadline this year, even with no cubans.

[CarolinaCubFan]

Is there anywhere I can find a depth chart for our prospects?

[Rob]

Lots of information in today's Ask BA:

 

When I listed my personal overall Top 50 in the 2012 Prospect Handbook, I had Brett Jackson at No. 28, Javier Baez at No. 31 and Rizzo at No. 42, so that would put Rizzo third on an updated Cubs list. I like Rizzo's power potential and think he's the third-best first-base prospect in baseball (behind the Astros' Jonathan Singleton and the Padres' Yonder Alonso), but Jackson and Baez are up-the-middle players and Baez has the bat to be an impact player if he moves down the line.

 

None of Chicago's other acquisitions would crack the Top 10. There's depth in the farm system, so if I were updating the Cubs Top 30 I wrote for the Handbook, I'd put Torreyes, Cates and Sappelt (in that order) in the back half of that list. Torreyes is a career .364 hitter in the lower minors, but he's also 5-foot-7 and lacks a second standout tool, so he's really going to have to max out what he has to make it as a big league regular. Cates has a strong arm but is relatively new to pitching and has a lot of work to do, while Sappelt looks like a fourth outfielder who's overmatched in center field.

 

In our preliminary system rankings in the Handbook, we put Chicago at No. 14. When we release our final rankings this spring, the Cubs' moves will push them up a spot or two.

 

As for Volstad, I thought he was a nice pickup in the Carlos Zambrano trade. Chicago might have released Zambrano if it couldn't have traded him. Though the Cubs had to eat $15 million of Zambrano's $18 million salary for 2012, they got a young, durable starter. Volstad may not be more than a No. 4 starter because he doesn't miss enough bats, but he'll help Chicago more than Zambrano would have.