Re: Darvish

[CyHawk_Cub]

Just going by the few times an MLB team has released full financials, I'd guess between $35 and $65 million. Which is of course a humongous range and thus worthless.

 

Not entirely worthless. Given your estimated range and if Levine's number is correct, it would indicate for sure that the Cubs will enter next year with either the same payroll or higher.

 

Yep, that was the take-away for me as well. Ar worst, it would seem to confirm what many have assumed-that the 2012 big league payroll will at worst match 2011's.

[davell]

Last year they spent 20 mill on the draft and IFA. Which is a bigtime amount, but if they really wanted to move quickly on the farm and the new CBA allows it, that number could still increase a little. And then, if a guy like Darvish is signed, there's a chance the posting fee gets counted towards this number as well.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

http://calltothepen.com/2011/11/20/yu-darvish-50-50-on-joining-mlb/

 

Darvish's dad says it is 50/50 that his son will be posted this year.

[Vinestal]

http://calltothepen.com/2011/11/20/yu-darvish-50-50-on-joining-mlb/

 

Darvish's dad says it is 50/50 that his son will be posted this year.

 

His father suggest a rule change that would make it where the top three bids would be able to negotiate with the player posted. I doubt they'd ever agree to something like that. My understanding is that the bidding process is blind, meaning that the bidders have no idea what the other teams interested are bidding. You could have one team bid 30 million and the next closest bid 15 million. I'm guessing whichever team the player decided to go with would be the one to pay the actual fee? So the Japanese team would stand to lose millions in that scenario.

[mul21]

http://calltothepen.com/2011/11/20/yu-darvish-50-50-on-joining-mlb/

 

Darvish's dad says it is 50/50 that his son will be posted this year.

 

His father suggest a rule change that would make it where the top three bids would be able to negotiate with the player posted. I doubt they'd ever agree to something like that. My understanding is that the bidding process is blind, meaning that the bidders have no idea what the other teams interested are bidding. You could have one team bid 30 million and the next closest bid 15 million. I'm guessing whichever team the player decided to go with would be the one to pay the actual fee? So the Japanese team would stand to lose millions in that scenario.

 

I think something like that could work as long as there was a stipulation that the 2nd and 3rd team had to be within a certain number (10%? 20%?) of the top bid. That way it's fair to both the player and the team posting him. The player can get a better deal because he has options and the posting team doesn't get screwed if something like the $30m/$15m scenario actually happened.

[Guest]

http://calltothepen.com/2011/11/20/yu-darvish-50-50-on-joining-mlb/

 

Darvish's dad says it is 50/50 that his son will be posted this year.

 

That's probably good news for him coming to the U.S. I actually assumed the odds were lower.

[fan_in_China]

Hi fellow cub fans. Long time reader, first time poster here. I have enjoyed reading your posts for 3, maybe 4 years now. And to jump on a bandwagon, Tim you have been killing it recently with the articles.

 

I just thought that I would point out something that has failed to show up in the Darvish thread, although I am sure it has been pondered. A baseball player's salary and contributions don't take place in a vacuum. A GM not only wants to put a good, cheap team on the field, but also wants to put a marketable team on the field. And Yu Darvish is very marketable.

 

If it was promised that Yu and CJ were to tie for 25th best WAR for a pitcher over the next 5 years, and Yu were to cost 5/125, and CJ was at 5/90, then I bet Theo would pick Yu. Yu is just that much more marketable. I bet that the team that wins the posting of Yu will get $5-10 instantly off of Japanese TV deals, jersey sales, and stuff like that. Plus, as long as he is effective, I wouldn't be surprised if he makes a team $10 mil/yr more that a guy like CJ.

 

Similarly, I feel like Theo is not gunshy about taking a Japanese pitcher, because I don't think Dice-K was a failure when it comes to $. I bet that despite his struggles, he still made the team more $ than he cost the team.

 

I am not sure that Yu will be a great MLB pitcher (though I think so), but I do think his marketability should be considered.

[davearm2]

Hi fellow cub fans. Long time reader, first time poster here. I have enjoyed reading your posts for 3, maybe 4 years now. And to jump on a bandwagon, Tim you have been killing it recently with the articles.

 

I just thought that I would point out something that has failed to show up in the Darvish thread, although I am sure it has been pondered. A baseball player's salary and contributions don't take place in a vacuum. A GM not only wants to put a good, cheap team on the field, but also wants to put a marketable team on the field. And Yu Darvish is very marketable.

 

If it was promised that Yu and CJ were to tie for 25th best WAR for a pitcher over the next 5 years, and Yu were to cost 5/125, and CJ was at 5/90, then I bet Theo would pick Yu. Yu is just that much more marketable. I bet that the team that wins the posting of Yu will get $5-10 instantly off of Japanese TV deals, jersey sales, and stuff like that. Plus, as long as he is effective, I wouldn't be surprised if he makes a team $10 mil/yr more that a guy like CJ.

 

Similarly, I feel like Theo is not gunshy about taking a Japanese pitcher, because I don't think Dice-K was a failure when it comes to $. I bet that despite his struggles, he still made the team more $ than he cost the team.

 

I am not sure that Yu will be a great MLB pitcher (though I think so), but I do think his marketability should be considered.

I'd bet you're overestimating the marketing value by a factor of 10, easily. Probably even more.

 

First, merchandizing revenue is split evenly by all 30 teams. The Cubs would make the most money on Darvish jersey sales if he signs with the Yankees

 

Second, the Cubs don't own the television rights in Japan, so they can't sell something they don't own. If a bunch of Japanese folks start watching Cubs games, they'll do so online, via the Japanese version of MLB.TV. Any revenue generated for MLBAM would also be shared equally by the 30 teams.

 

"We'll offset so-and-so's salary with marketing revenue" is by and large a huge fallacy.

[Guest]

Hi fellow cub fans. Long time reader, first time poster here. I have enjoyed reading your posts for 3, maybe 4 years now. And to jump on a bandwagon, Tim you have been killing it recently with the articles.

 

I just thought that I would point out something that has failed to show up in the Darvish thread, although I am sure it has been pondered. A baseball player's salary and contributions don't take place in a vacuum. A GM not only wants to put a good, cheap team on the field, but also wants to put a marketable team on the field. And Yu Darvish is very marketable.

 

If it was promised that Yu and CJ were to tie for 25th best WAR for a pitcher over the next 5 years, and Yu were to cost 5/125, and CJ was at 5/90, then I bet Theo would pick Yu. Yu is just that much more marketable. I bet that the team that wins the posting of Yu will get $5-10 instantly off of Japanese TV deals, jersey sales, and stuff like that. Plus, as long as he is effective, I wouldn't be surprised if he makes a team $10 mil/yr more that a guy like CJ.

 

Similarly, I feel like Theo is not gunshy about taking a Japanese pitcher, because I don't think Dice-K was a failure when it comes to $. I bet that despite his struggles, he still made the team more $ than he cost the team.

 

I am not sure that Yu will be a great MLB pitcher (though I think so), but I do think his marketability should be considered.

Again, welcome!

 

Yu is certainly a huge star in Japan. What's not clear to me is how the Cubs can capitalize upon that. I'm not sure what additional revenue streams he would really open up to the team. I know things like US jersey sales are split amongst all 30 teams, but I don't know about foreign sales. I'm also unsure of how we'd be able to market Asian TV broadcasting. It would be interesting to see how Seattle or Boston have been able to boost revenues through Asian streams.

[davearm2]

Here's a pretty informative article on the Sox, Matsuzaka, and revenue potential (or lack thereof):

 

http://www.eagletribune.com/sports/x1876315329/Matsuzaka-wont-be-cash-cow-Red-Sox-need

[fan_in_China]

wow!!! I really thought I was onto something there. I had a lot less of a clue about all of that stuff as I thought I did. I still think Yu is more marketable than CJ, but I guess it doesn't matter as much as I thought. Maybe I'm not a big Yu fan after all.

[Guest]

Not sure why I'm bothering posting this, but...

 

SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman

Yu darvish still seen as more likely than not to post, but nothings expected to be decided for a couple more weeks

7 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply

 

 

Heyman sorta reporting nothing again.

[davell]

He shouldn't wait too long, because teams will definitely be making moves by the Winter Meetings anyway.

[Vinestal]

He shouldn't wait too long, because teams will definitely be making moves by the Winter Meetings anyway.

When do the winter meetings start?

[Cubswin11]

He shouldn't wait too long, because teams will definitely be making moves by the Winter Meetings anyway.

When do the winter meetings start?

December 6-9th in Florida.

[ctcf]

Potentially bad news, per Rotoworld:

 

Chuck Johnson of NY Baseball Digest reports that Yu Darvish likely won't be posted this offseason due to ongoing divorce proceedings.

Johnson says that Darvish's soon-to-be ex-wife's lawyer, in an effort to make sure the pitcher's MLB salary is counted towards her settlement, has already filed two depositions delaying their court appearance. Not surprisingly, Darvish and his agent don’t want to post until the divorce is final. Jon Heyman of SI.com, though, reported Friday that Darvish is "still seen as more likely than not to post." No one seems to know for sure, but we should find out Darvish's fate within a few weeks.

[davell]

Yeah, that doesn't sound good at all. We're going to have to trade for a frontline starter, if we're going to acquire one, in all likelihood.

[davell]

Rosenthal giving Heyman a run for best non informator of the year......Tweets Darvish is LIKELY to be posted after Winter Meetings. Citing a "source".

 

 

EDIT: And follows with saying this is NOT 100%. Still working through some things with his club. Divorce is NOT a factor.

[Guest]

Rosenthal giving Heyman a run for best non informator of the year......Tweets Darvish is LIKELY to be posted after Winter Meetings. Citing a "source".

 

 

EDIT: And follows with saying this is NOT 100%. Still working through some things with his club. Divorce is NOT a factor.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/yu-darvish-japanese-pitcher-up-for-grabs-for-mlb-teams-120311

[davell]

I think we probably need to move on from this guy. His dad said tonight he probably won't make a decision until mid to late January. Also, supposedly he's quirky and will not like it if his posting fee is less than Masuzaka's was.

[Splendid Splinter]

I think we probably need to move on from this guy. His dad said tonight he probably won't make a decision until mid to late January. Also, supposedly he's quirky and will not like it if his posting fee is less than Masuzaka's was.

 

Why would the posting fee matter to him? It's not like he gets any of that money. Unless you meant by contract instead of posting fee.

[davell]

I think we probably need to move on from this guy. His dad said tonight he probably won't make a decision until mid to late January. Also, supposedly he's quirky and will not like it if his posting fee is less than Masuzaka's was.

 

Why would the posting fee matter to him? It's not like he gets any of that money. Unless you meant by contract instead of posting fee.

The blurb said he'd be disrespected if his posting fee isn't at least as high as Matsuzaka's. Said he has a huge ego. It's on MLBTR, I'm posting from my phone or I'd link it.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The competitiveness of the big numbers has always been as much of a factor as the actual money in athlete's contracts.

 

I'd be willing to go as high as $90 million in total commitment to him, but I don't know if he'd take $40 million after a $50 million posting fee, and the more the posting fee the more expensive the contract is in real dollars.

[d_money]

Hi fellow cub fans. Long time reader, first time poster here. I have enjoyed reading your posts for 3, maybe 4 years now. And to jump on a bandwagon, Tim you have been killing it recently with the articles.

 

I just thought that I would point out something that has failed to show up in the Darvish thread, although I am sure it has been pondered. A baseball player's salary and contributions don't take place in a vacuum. A GM not only wants to put a good, cheap team on the field, but also wants to put a marketable team on the field. And Yu Darvish is very marketable.

 

If it was promised that Yu and CJ were to tie for 25th best WAR for a pitcher over the next 5 years, and Yu were to cost 5/125, and CJ was at 5/90, then I bet Theo would pick Yu. Yu is just that much more marketable. I bet that the team that wins the posting of Yu will get $5-10 instantly off of Japanese TV deals, jersey sales, and stuff like that. Plus, as long as he is effective, I wouldn't be surprised if he makes a team $10 mil/yr more that a guy like CJ.

 

Similarly, I feel like Theo is not gunshy about taking a Japanese pitcher, because I don't think Dice-K was a failure when it comes to $. I bet that despite his struggles, he still made the team more $ than he cost the team.

 

I am not sure that Yu will be a great MLB pitcher (though I think so), but I do think his marketability should be considered.

I'd bet you're overestimating the marketing value by a factor of 10, easily. Probably even more.

 

First, merchandizing revenue is split evenly by all 30 teams. The Cubs would make the most money on Darvish jersey sales if he signs with the Yankees

 

Second, the Cubs don't own the television rights in Japan, so they can't sell something they don't own. If a bunch of Japanese folks start watching Cubs games, they'll do so online, via the Japanese version of MLB.TV. Any revenue generated for MLBAM would also be shared equally by the 30 teams.

 

"We'll offset so-and-so's salary with marketing revenue" is by and large a huge fallacy.

 

The Cubs don't have far to go to measure the impact of a Japanese start - the numbers are fresh from the Fukudome era. Theo & Co. can refer to their experience with the Matz financials. Whatever the decision is (pursue him or not), the breakeven point in terms of dollars by the Cubs will be quick.

[Brett]

The competitiveness of the big numbers has always been as much of a factor as the actual money in athlete's contracts.

 

I'd be willing to go as high as $90 million in total commitment to him, but I don't know if he'd take $40 million after a $50 million posting fee, and the more the posting fee the more expensive the contract is in real dollars.

 

Yeah, I'd say 6/$90M (total) is about as high as you can reasonably go, given the uncertainty. Maybe $6/100M. Given the way Japanese players tend to hit "The Wall" after two years in MLB, the risk that the latter half of the contract could be a blight is not insignificant.