New GM/Cubs Future News Articles

[Sammy Sofa]

Still, in reference to Pujols, 5-6 years should be something anyone would be fine with. Hell, forget fine; people should be cartwheeling if it was possible for the Cubs to pull that off. Odds are that Albert Pujols at 37 and 38 is still going to be one of the better hitters in baseball.

[Vinestal]

Yes, let's punt the next 2 years.

 

Im not for sacrificing the next 6 years of payroll flexibility for possibly competing the next 2. Im not of the opinion that Pujols can make us a world series contender next season and Im pretty unsure if he'd be worth what he would cost over the length of his substantially long contract.

[SouthSideRyan]

I feel like people think Pujols has been a lot worse than he actually is this year.

 

He has a 149 OPS+, something the Cubs haven't seen from a regular in 6 years.

Edited August 22, 2011 by SouthSideRyan

[Vinestal]

Still, in reference to Pujols, 5-6 years should be something anyone would be fine with. Hell, forget fine; people should be cartwheeling if it was possible for the Cubs to pull that off. Odds are that Albert Pujols at 37 and 38 is still going to be one of the better hitters in baseball.

 

I disagree with your guess at the odds. That's just my opinion vs yours though. I'm sure there's a lot of people that would agree with you. Maybe your right but I think it would be something we'd live to regret. Players break down toward the end of their careers and can become pretty much a faint shadow of the player they were when they signed, I've watched it happen to many times. People are always excited when they signed then 3 years later are asking why did we do that?

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

The Road Map to a Cubs Resurgence - by Jonah Keri, the guy that wrote The Other 2%, about the Rays development into a winner.

 

Certainly a more pessimistic view of the upcoming Cubs offseason and current outlook.

 

Build the foundation for the next winning Cubs team, then hit the open market in 2013, 2014, or whenever the time's right to find the next Pujols. When that time comes the ivy will still be green, the bleachers will still be full, and the drought will still be there, waiting to finally be broken.

 

I think that's a needed dose of reality for a lot of Cubs fans.

 

I feel that way as well, I'm very leery of giving anyone a 5-6 year deal and I think Pujols will begin to decline rapidly in the next few years.

 

Why not just not waste time and sign Pujols? Or go for the 27 year old alternate available in the same offseason (this upcoming one)?

 

I'm really not into the idea of sitting around and waiting years for anything. It seems weak, particularly since the two very elite bats up for the taking FROM OUR DIVISION RIVALS.

 

A much more needed dose of reality for Cubs fans is to see that tides can turn very quickly and the team can win if they're smart and active. Plus, having a superstar bat backing the lineup by being in it makes it much easier for everyone else, young and old, to thrive (IMO).

[javy knows my name]

The Road Map to a Cubs Resurgence - by Jonah Keri, the guy that wrote The Other 2%, about the Rays development into a winner.

 

Certainly a more pessimistic view of the upcoming Cubs offseason and current outlook.

 

Build the foundation for the next winning Cubs team, then hit the open market in 2013, 2014, or whenever the time's right to find the next Pujols. When that time comes the ivy will still be green, the bleachers will still be full, and the drought will still be there, waiting to finally be broken.

 

I think that's a needed dose of reality for a lot of Cubs fans.

 

HA. HA-HA-HA.

 

The next Pujols. GFY

[Guest]

Pujols following a standard aging curve is still worth 25-27 million dollars per year over 6 years, and that ignores that HOFers typically age well, as well as the fact that there's additional marginal value to getting so much production in one spot on the diamond.

[idakepps]

The Road Map to a Cubs Resurgence - by Jonah Keri, the guy that wrote The Other 2%, about the Rays development into a winner.

 

Certainly a more pessimistic view of the upcoming Cubs offseason and current outlook.

 

Not that bad though. Keri is a Rays fanboy, so naturally he's still going to view the Garza trade as a clear win for the Rays. I'm starting to see it as a lot of spare parts and a solid prospect (Lee) with a chance to be an everyday SS for a very good No. 2 type pitcher. If Lee is the Rays starting SS for 3+ years then the Rays win the trade, assuming Garza will be solid for 3-4 years.

[bukie]

One thing I think Keri overlooks is that the Cubs can afford to give 6-7 years to Pujols/Fielder and build up from within. The truth of the matter is, the Cubs just don't currently have a Pujols anywhere in the organization now, and have nobody close to that level of production on the major league roster.

[Sammy Sofa]

Still, in reference to Pujols, 5-6 years should be something anyone would be fine with. Hell, forget fine; people should be cartwheeling if it was possible for the Cubs to pull that off. Odds are that Albert Pujols at 37 and 38 is still going to be one of the better hitters in baseball.

 

I disagree with your guess at the odds. That's just my opinion vs yours though. I'm sure there's a lot of people that would agree with you. Maybe your right but I think it would be something we'd live to regret. Players break down toward the end of their careers and can become pretty much a faint shadow of the player they were when they signed, I've watched it happen to many times. People are always excited when they signed then 3 years later are asking why did we do that?

 

But how many HOF players at Pujols' level have you seen fall off of a cliff? I'm not saying it's impossible, but it feels more like you're talking about someone like Soriano.

[bukie]

Still, in reference to Pujols, 5-6 years should be something anyone would be fine with. Hell, forget fine; people should be cartwheeling if it was possible for the Cubs to pull that off. Odds are that Albert Pujols at 37 and 38 is still going to be one of the better hitters in baseball.

 

I disagree with your guess at the odds. That's just my opinion vs yours though. I'm sure there's a lot of people that would agree with you. Maybe your right but I think it would be something we'd live to regret. Players break down toward the end of their careers and can become pretty much a faint shadow of the player they were when they signed, I've watched it happen to many times. People are always excited when they signed then 3 years later are asking why did we do that?

 

But how many HOF players at Pujols' level have you seen fall off of a cliff? I'm not saying it's impossible, but it feels more like you're talking about someone like Soriano.

 

I think after the Sosa incident (and to a lesser extent the Soriano thing, just because he wasn't near a Sosa level when people thought he would be), some fans are a little hesitant to sign a 30+ slugger under the assumption that he won't work out.

 

Not that I agree with it, but I think that's the reasoning.

[davearm2]

Still, in reference to Pujols, 5-6 years should be something anyone would be fine with. Hell, forget fine; people should be cartwheeling if it was possible for the Cubs to pull that off. Odds are that Albert Pujols at 37 and 38 is still going to be one of the better hitters in baseball.

 

I disagree with your guess at the odds. That's just my opinion vs yours though. I'm sure there's a lot of people that would agree with you. Maybe your right but I think it would be something we'd live to regret. Players break down toward the end of their careers and can become pretty much a faint shadow of the player they were when they signed, I've watched it happen to many times. People are always excited when they signed then 3 years later are asking why did we do that?

 

But how many HOF players at Pujols' level have you seen fall off of a cliff? I'm not saying it's impossible, but it feels more like you're talking about someone like Soriano.

That's a self-fulfilling prophecy, because the players that had HOF careers did so expressly because they were able to avoid falling off a cliff.

 

It's also self-fulfilling because very few have played at Pujols' level, so you leave yourself an easy out there, too.

 

And in case that isn't enough, you gave yourself room to debate the definition of "falling off a cliff".

 

Ask the question, "how many players were on a HOF track before falling off a cliff", and you get a heckuva list.

 

With just a 30 second brainstorm of the last, oh, 20 years, I came up with:

McGwire

Rolen

Manny

Belle

Canseco

Sosa

Gonzalez

Griffey

Bagwell

Garciaparra

 

These were all superstars in their 20s and early 30s, but virtually useless after 35.

Edited August 23, 2011 by davearm2

[dew1679666265]

The Road Map to a Cubs Resurgence - by Jonah Keri, the guy that wrote The Other 2%, about the Rays development into a winner.

 

Certainly a more pessimistic view of the upcoming Cubs offseason and current outlook.

 

Build the foundation for the next winning Cubs team, then hit the open market in 2013, 2014, or whenever the time's right to find the next Pujols. When that time comes the ivy will still be green, the bleachers will still be full, and the drought will still be there, waiting to finally be broken.

 

I think that's a needed dose of reality for a lot of Cubs fans.

 

His point would be a lot better if the plan were to give Pujols/Fielder a 1 year contract. However, his estimate is that the Cubs could be contending in 2013 or 2014 - at which point Pujols/Fielder will still be under contract and likely still incredibly productive. Adding Pujols/Fielder would be a long term signing, not a 1 year thing.

 

Also, unless you count Bonds, we haven't seen a player like Pujols in most of our lifetimes and the likelihood of another player of that caliber hitting the market again in the next 2-3 years is amazingly unlikely.

[Sammy Sofa]

Still, in reference to Pujols, 5-6 years should be something anyone would be fine with. Hell, forget fine; people should be cartwheeling if it was possible for the Cubs to pull that off. Odds are that Albert Pujols at 37 and 38 is still going to be one of the better hitters in baseball.

 

I disagree with your guess at the odds. That's just my opinion vs yours though. I'm sure there's a lot of people that would agree with you. Maybe your right but I think it would be something we'd live to regret. Players break down toward the end of their careers and can become pretty much a faint shadow of the player they were when they signed, I've watched it happen to many times. People are always excited when they signed then 3 years later are asking why did we do that?

 

But how many HOF players at Pujols' level have you seen fall off of a cliff? I'm not saying it's impossible, but it feels more like you're talking about someone like Soriano.

That's a self-fulfilling prophecy, because the players that had HOF careers did so expressly because they were able to avoid falling off a cliff.

 

It's also self-fulfilling because very few have played at Pujols' level, so you leave yourself an easy out there, too.

 

And in case that isn't enough, you gave yourself room to debate the definition of "falling off a cliff".

 

Ask the question, "how many players were on a HOF track before falling off a cliff", and you get a heckuva list.

 

With just a 30 second brainstorm of the last, oh, 20 years, I came up with:

McGwire

Rolen

Manny

Belle

Canseco

Sosa

Gonzalez

Griffey

 

These were all superstars in their 20s, but virtually useless after 35.

 

I'd argue that Pujols is either clearly significantly better than nearly everyone on the list (really, I'm stunned you're listing some of those players with a straight face), a number of those guys didn't suffer a significant decline or "fell off of a cliff" until their late 30's or were wracked by injuries that Pujols has been fortunate to mostly avoid (or they came crashing down off of PED regimens) that either caused them to decline or to retire abruptly.

 

I mean, really, that's a hugely arbitrary list because you're using the umbrella term "superstar" instead of actually focusing on players with anything resembling Pujols' level of production. You call it an easy out; I simply say it's reality. No Pujols, isn't a lock to have to have a long productive career when he's pushing 40...but there's a decent chance he will be. But ultimately that's all it is; a chance. A gamble. I'm not arguing that it's otherwise. Personally, I'd like them to take the gamble (if they don't get Fielder).

[davearm2]

Still, in reference to Pujols, 5-6 years should be something anyone would be fine with. Hell, forget fine; people should be cartwheeling if it was possible for the Cubs to pull that off. Odds are that Albert Pujols at 37 and 38 is still going to be one of the better hitters in baseball.

 

I disagree with your guess at the odds. That's just my opinion vs yours though. I'm sure there's a lot of people that would agree with you. Maybe your right but I think it would be something we'd live to regret. Players break down toward the end of their careers and can become pretty much a faint shadow of the player they were when they signed, I've watched it happen to many times. People are always excited when they signed then 3 years later are asking why did we do that?

 

But how many HOF players at Pujols' level have you seen fall off of a cliff? I'm not saying it's impossible, but it feels more like you're talking about someone like Soriano.

That's a self-fulfilling prophecy, because the players that had HOF careers did so expressly because they were able to avoid falling off a cliff.

 

It's also self-fulfilling because very few have played at Pujols' level, so you leave yourself an easy out there, too.

 

And in case that isn't enough, you gave yourself room to debate the definition of "falling off a cliff".

 

Ask the question, "how many players were on a HOF track before falling off a cliff", and you get a heckuva list.

 

With just a 30 second brainstorm of the last, oh, 20 years, I came up with:

McGwire

Rolen

Manny

Belle

Canseco

Sosa

Gonzalez

Griffey

 

These were all superstars in their 20s, but virtually useless after 35.

 

I'd argue that Pujols is either clearly significantly better than nearly everyone on the list (really, I'm stunned you're listing some of those players with a straight face), a number of those guys didn't suffer a significant decline or "fell off of a cliff" until their late 30's or were wracked by injuries that Pujols has been fortunate to mostly avoid (or they came crashing down off of PED regimens) that either caused them to decline or to retire abruptly.

 

I mean, really, that's a hugely arbitrary list because you're using the umbrella term "superstar" instead of actually focusing on players with anything resembling Pujols' level of production. You call it an easy out; I simply say it's reality. No Pujols, isn't a lock to have to have a long productive career when he's pushing 40...but there's a decent chance he will be.

Of course you'd argue the point, for exactly the reasons I predicted. If you intentionally make the target small enough, then of course there will be no hits.

 

Looking more realistically, many elite, perennial all-star types have faced dramatic dropoffs at around the age Pujols will be halfway through his next deal. I gave you several examples, but it's hardly an exhaustive list.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The Road Map to a Cubs Resurgence - by Jonah Keri, the guy that wrote The Other 2%, about the Rays development into a winner.

 

Certainly a more pessimistic view of the upcoming Cubs offseason and current outlook.

 

Build the foundation for the next winning Cubs team, then hit the open market in 2013, 2014, or whenever the time's right to find the next Pujols. When that time comes the ivy will still be green, the bleachers will still be full, and the drought will still be there, waiting to finally be broken.

 

I think that's a needed dose of reality for a lot of Cubs fans.

 

Are you sure you don't mean a daily dose of one guys opinion, because that's more what I got out of it.

[Guest]

Pujols' Top 10 comparables through age 30 from BBref, looking at OPS+

 

Player     Career 30  31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38   Notes
Foxx        163  182 188 150 138  93         113       Cut short due to Drinking/Sinus problem
F Robinson  154  198 187 152 165 153 151 127 150 141 
Griffey     135  133 124 103 145 122 144  99 119 102   Injury shortened seasons at ages 33-35
Gehrig      178  176 206 176 190 176 132               Cut short due to ALS
Aaron       155  153 160 142 168 153 177 148 194 147 
Mantle      172  196 195 178 163 179 191 173   
Ott         155  174 137 149 165 134 172 151 -13  
J Gonzalez  132  115 148  99 122  96                   Linked to steroid use
E Mathews   143  137 146 112 125 108 111  98   
M Ramirez   154  184 160 152 153 165 126 165 153 138   Linked to steroid use
Pujols      171  174 149        
Average     154  165 165 141 153 138 151 137 119 132 
Count        10   10  10  10  10  10   8   7   6   4

 

There's a whole lot more sustained performance and gentle decline in there than there are people falling off a cliff, and much of the people falling off a cliff have some sort of external reasoning that doesn't really apply to Pujols.

[Sammy Sofa]

I argued the point for exactly the reasoning I spelled out. Again, I said it was my opinion and that it's a gamble as to how long he'd be productive into his contract (because there are plenty of great players that crashed and burned after 35-36), but it's a gamble I think is well worth taking (also plenty of great who had productive or better 18-19-year careers). You can think whatever you want about when Pujols is going to fall off; it's all subjective at this point. The only thing I think is flat out wrong is when people talk like the Cubs should always avoid guys like Pujols because you can't know how long he'll last or guys like Fielder because you can't know if he'll fall off of a cliff because of his weight. ALL big contracts like those guys will command are a huge gamble. It's a chance that has to be taken if you want someone on their levels because you can always talk yourself out of it when you get down to it.

[UMFan83]

The Road Map to a Cubs Resurgence - by Jonah Keri, the guy that wrote The Other 2%, about the Rays development into a winner.

 

Certainly a more pessimistic view of the upcoming Cubs offseason and current outlook.

 

Build the foundation for the next winning Cubs team, then hit the open market in 2013, 2014, or whenever the time's right to find the next Pujols. When that time comes the ivy will still be green, the bleachers will still be full, and the drought will still be there, waiting to finally be broken.

 

I think that's a needed dose of reality for a lot of Cubs fans.

 

HA. HA-HA-HA.

 

The next Pujols. GFY

 

Pujols's grow on trees. They are a dime a dozen.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The Road Map to a Cubs Resurgence - by Jonah Keri, the guy that wrote The Other 2%, about the Rays development into a winner.

 

Certainly a more pessimistic view of the upcoming Cubs offseason and current outlook.

 

Build the foundation for the next winning Cubs team, then hit the open market in 2013, 2014, or whenever the time's right to find the next Pujols. When that time comes the ivy will still be green, the bleachers will still be full, and the drought will still be there, waiting to finally be broken.

 

I think that's a needed dose of reality for a lot of Cubs fans.

 

HA. HA-HA-HA.

 

The next Pujols. GFY

 

So Bryce Harper sometime between 2017-2020?

 

Pujols's grow on trees. They are a dime a dozen.

[davearm2]

I argued the point for exactly the reasoning I spelled out. Again, I said it was my opinion and that it's a gamble as to how long he'd be productive into his contract (because there are plenty of great players that crashed and burned after 35-36), but it's a gamble I think is well worth taking (also plenty of great who had productive or better 18-19-year careers). You can think whatever you want about when Pujols is going to fall off; it's all subjective at this point. The only thing I think is flat out wrong is when people talk like the Cubs should always avoid guys like Pujols because you can't know how long he'll last or guys like Fielder because you can't know if he'll fall off of a cliff because of his weight. ALL big contracts like those guys will command are a huge gamble. It's a chance that has to be taken if you want someone on their levels because you can always talk yourself out of it when you get down to it.

Hey you asked the question ("how many HOF players at Pujols' level have you seen fall off of a cliff?"), clearly implying that the number is tiny, when in reality it's not tiny at all.

 

Now it appears we agree -- as you said, there are plenty of great players that crashed and burned after 35-36.

[Sammy Sofa]

I argued the point for exactly the reasoning I spelled out. Again, I said it was my opinion and that it's a gamble as to how long he'd be productive into his contract (because there are plenty of great players that crashed and burned after 35-36), but it's a gamble I think is well worth taking (also plenty of great who had productive or better 18-19-year careers). You can think whatever you want about when Pujols is going to fall off; it's all subjective at this point. The only thing I think is flat out wrong is when people talk like the Cubs should always avoid guys like Pujols because you can't know how long he'll last or guys like Fielder because you can't know if he'll fall off of a cliff because of his weight. ALL big contracts like those guys will command are a huge gamble. It's a chance that has to be taken if you want someone on their levels because you can always talk yourself out of it when you get down to it.

Hey you asked the question ("how many HOF players at Pujols' level have you seen fall off of a cliff?"), clearly implying that the number is tiny, when in reality it's not tiny at all.

 

Now it appears we agree -- as you said, there are plenty of great players that crashed and burned after 35-36.

 

There's great players...then there's Pujols. There are too many guys who are in that upper echelon who manged to have damn near two decades-long productive careers to pass on him if he's available simply out of the fear that once he gets past 35 or 36 he suffers a sudden and dramatic downturn. No, I don't think there's enough players who are truly comparable to Pujols who suffered such a fate to justify that approach. Too many "beyond great" players lasted around 17 or 18 seasons at an AS or better level to be so wary of Pujols after just 11.

 

There's great players that crashed and burned shortly after turning 34, or 33, or 32 or 31 or even 30. That's an inherent risk when you're dealing with a professional athlete. Is that saying that Pujols' risk of sudden decline or injury is the same as someone who is 30? No. But I am saying that I think that a player of his elite caliber is too special to pass on because of that relatively increased risk. The chance of him still producing at an elite or near elite level until he's, say, 38 is just too great to pass on. I mean, at some point you have to just sit back and realize you're talking signing someone who is very likely the greatest hitter to ever play the game.

[Guest]

Anyone see this in one of the links from the OP?

 

Sun-Times[/url]"]He’s happy with [farm director] Oneri [Fleita’s] leadership and [scouting director] Tim Wilken. And I expressed to them that he has those feelings about the job that they’re doing, and that we could see a path we could go down where a lot of things that are in place would stay in place.

 

Hopefully Wittenmyer is wrong.

[idakepps]

Anyone see this in one of the links from the OP?

 

Sun-Times[/url]"]He’s happy with [farm director] Oneri [Fleita’s] leadership and [scouting director] Tim Wilken. And I expressed to them that he has those feelings about the job that they’re doing, and that we could see a path we could go down where a lot of things that are in place would stay in place.

 

Hopefully Wittenmyer is wrong.

 

Hard to imagine the new GM comes in and is happy with the "swing! swing! swing!" dictum that seems to permeate Oneri's farm system. Can see him bailing after the first meeting with the new GM :yahoo:

 

I'm ok with Wilken. Would just as soon the team keep his experience in building world champions through the draft around.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

What's so bad ably Fleita? The position player prospects right now are the best theyve had in forever, and remain the strength of the system. He's someone you look to keep.