Thoughts on Trading Soto?

[davearm2]

It needs to be said again, for his career his line is:

 

.262/.355/.459

 

That is an OPS over 800, and takes in the best of times and worst of times of his career. His bad years represent tolerable seasons for a catcher. His good years have been terrific. His career has been very good.

Looking at the career line seems pretty unhelpful with a guy like Soto. Like you said, he's been either tolerable or terrific (or hurt). He's never had a season that's simply good. It's always been well above or well below that.

 

One would have to imagine that such extreme volatility would lower his value to other teams.

 

man, you are never right.

What am I wrong about?

 

Do you disagree that Soto's production has been volatile over his 3+ years (as compared to other players)?

 

Do you disagree that volatile production is inherently a bad thing (as compared to consistent production)?

 

To me it's very simple. Teams will more highly value a guy that OPS's ~.800 consistently versus a guy that OPS's .900 some years and .700 other years. Now I know those aren't Soto's exact numbers, and I also realize nobody hits the same OPS number every year, but Soto is much more the latter guy than the former guy. So to point to a career OPS of ~.800 and say that's who this guy is, isn't really very accurate. In fact it's misleading.

Edited June 21, 2011 by davearm2

[Warren Brusstar]

It needs to be said again, for his career his line is:

 

.262/.355/.459

 

That is an OPS over 800, and takes in the best of times and worst of times of his career. His bad years represent tolerable seasons for a catcher. His good years have been terrific. His career has been very good.

 

This thread is maddening. He's probably the most valuable player on the Cubs over the last 4 seasons, and is still both young and cost-controlled.

[Sammy Sofa]

It needs to be said again, for his career his line is:

 

.262/.355/.459

 

That is an OPS over 800, and takes in the best of times and worst of times of his career. His bad years represent tolerable seasons for a catcher. His good years have been terrific. His career has been very good.

Looking at the career line seems pretty unhelpful with a guy like Soto. Like you said, he's been either tolerable or terrific (or hurt). He's never had a season that's simply good. It's always been well above or well below that.

 

One would have to imagine that such extreme volatility would lower his value to other teams.

 

man, you are never right.

What am I wrong about?

 

Do you disagree that Soto's production has been volatile over his 3+ years (as compared to other players)?

 

Do you disagree that volatile production is inherently a bad thing (as compared to consistent production)?

 

To me it's very simple. Teams will more highly value a guy that OPS's ~.800 consistently versus a guy that OPS's .900 some years and .700 other years. Now I know those aren't Soto's exact numbers, and I also realize nobody hits the same OPS number every year, but Soto is much more the latter guy than the former guy. So to point to a career OPS of ~.800 and say that's who this guy is, isn't really very accurate. In fact it's misleading.

 

It's only misleading in that he's bounced between being tolerable and really, really good while being cheap. "Misleading" implies that it's hiding something bad.

[SouthSideRyan]

Do you disagree that volatile production is inherently a bad thing (as compared to consistent production)?

 

Yes.

[jersey cubs fan]

To me it's very simple. Teams will more highly value a guy that OPS's ~.800 consistently versus a guy that OPS's .900 some years and .700 other years. Now I know those aren't Soto's exact numbers, and I also realize nobody hits the same OPS number every year, but Soto is much more the latter guy than the former guy.

 

What justification do you have for this point?

 

So to point to a career OPS of ~.800 and say that's who this guy is, isn't really very accurate. In fact it's misleading.

 

I pointed out his career line to illustrate the point that overall he's been very good. His bad years are not bad despite what some people continue to claim. And his good years are terrific. That provides insurance against black hole type production with the upside of potentially league leading production.

[jersey cubs fan]

Do you disagree that volatile production is inherently a bad thing (as compared to consistent production)?

 

Yes.

 

Agreed, volatile production is in no way shape or form inherently a bad thing. If he had an 800 OPS in his good years and a 600 OPS in his bad years, that could be bad. But his bad is not that bad at all. And his good is great.

[Guest]

It needs to be said again, for his career his line is:

 

.262/.355/.459

 

That is an OPS over 800, and takes in the best of times and worst of times of his career. His bad years represent tolerable seasons for a catcher. His good years have been terrific. His career has been very good.

Just for reference (different era caveat applied), here is the all-time best catcher (Johnny Bench):

 

.267/.342/.476

[Guest]

Also, during the prime of his career, Bench's OPS went like this:

 

.932

.722

.920

.774

.870

.878

.741

.889

 

I think you have to accept a lot of performance variation from a position where guys spend half their time doing squats.

[erik316wttn]

Catcher is probably the hardest position to find quality offensive production, and we get that (usually) out of Soto. I wouldn't trade him away unless some team offered us a deal we'd be stupid to turn down. And he's young and cheap. There's no reason to actively pursue a trade.

[questionmarkgrace]

I'm down to trade soto because I think he is going to have a heck of a time staying healthy for the next couple years. Plus I am always for trading a guy a year or two early then waiting too long. Of course, the right prospects would have to be involved which may be possible given the dearrth of decent catching in the mlb.

[KaiserCesar]

I'm down to trade soto because I think he is going to have a heck of a time staying healthy for the next couple years. Plus I am always for trading a guy a year or two early then waiting too long. Of course, the right prospects would have to be involved which may be possible given the dearrth of decent catching in the mlb.

 

Is any trade partner going to value him as if he will play 140+ games every year? Prior comments on this thread show that Soto is still a valuable player despite his hurt years (I'm assuming we are talking chronic injuries and not something that will put him out for an entire year). It's an extremely good chance to get a great bang for the buck with Soto over the next few years and any injury uncertainty is matched by performance uncertainty by any of the young catchers in the system.

[dew1679666265]

I'm down to trade soto because I think he is going to have a heck of a time staying healthy for the next couple years. Plus I am always for trading a guy a year or two early then waiting too long. Of course, the right prospects would have to be involved which may be possible given the dearrth of decent catching in the mlb.

 

The problem with trading Soto is that dearth of decent catching extends to the Cubs as well (behind Soto, at least). Let's assume we trade Soto, now who steps in and provides even just average production behind the plate, much less the excellent production we've gotten from Soto overall as the starter? Wellington Castillo has started tearing the cover off the ball this season, but he's been aided by a .400 BABIP so far this year and posted a .317 OBP last year.

 

Considering Soto's struggled so far this year - likely decreasing the return he'd bring - and the lack of a quality replacement behind him makes me wonder how trading him is a net benefit for the team.

[Brett]

It needs to be said again, for his career his line is:

 

.262/.355/.459

 

That is an OPS over 800, and takes in the best of times and worst of times of his career. His bad years represent tolerable seasons for a catcher. His good years have been terrific. His career has been very good.

 

This thread is maddening. He's probably the most valuable player on the Cubs over the last 4 seasons, and is still both young and cost-controlled.

 

Of course, then again, those are the very reasons he would have immense trade value.

 

And he's not *that* young. He'll turn 29 in the offseason.

[davell]

I don't want Soto past his arb years. So whether that means trading him over the offseason or keeping him next year and offering arb at the end of it, I'll take the return from that, over the idea of giving him a 3-4 year deal probably around 8-10 mill per during his early thirties. And I like Geo alot. Just don't want him on what's probably going to wind up a bad contract.