2012 Draft Discussion

[javy knows my name]

It would be a bummer if those were the top 5 off the board. I'd go Almora in that situation.

[davell]

If Giolito is healthy and can be signed for a little under 5 mill, he's my pick. If not, I think I'm taking Almora over Zimmer for sure and probably over Fried.

[Guest]

Ask BA on maneuvers to circumvent the new CBA.

[Cubswin11]

If Giolito is healthy and can be signed for a little under 5 mill, he's my pick. If not, I think I'm taking Almora over Zimmer for sure and probably over Fried.

Agreed assuming Correa, Gausman and Appel are all gone and Giolito is healthy/not a difficult sign I'd prefer in order Fiolito, Almora, Fried then Zimmer.

[toonsterwu]

I'd be quite happy with that, because Sims is a phenomenal get at 43. I don't like taking relievers early, but I like Sims enough to not care about Magnifico, who does throw as hard or harder than anyone in the draft. I'm fine with Zunino, not sure I'd take him over Almora or not. If we pass on Giolito, I'm figuring we had reason to do so.

 

It's from May 18th.

UK, is that your own mock, by any chance?

 

davell, I think that was the perfectgame mock draft.

[davell]

I'd be quite happy with that, because Sims is a phenomenal get at 43. I don't like taking relievers early, but I like Sims enough to not care about Magnifico, who does throw as hard or harder than anyone in the draft. I'm fine with Zunino, not sure I'd take him over Almora or not. If we pass on Giolito, I'm figuring we had reason to do so.

 

It's from May 18th.

UK, is that your own mock, by any chance?

 

davell, I think that was the perfectgame mock draft.

Thanks Toonster.

[craig]

I've been distracted and have had less time than ever to read/track for draft. And moving it up puts it ahead of my normal schedule, too. So I don't feel like I know much.

 

Q1: Bruxton has been a long-term premise as going 1 or 2, or at lowest 3. Is that still true? Is there a chance that he'll slip down to us? If so, would that be a good thing and you'd want us to pick him? Or at this point is he a guy you'd not want to touch?

 

Q2: I get the sense the board isn't very interested in Zimmer. Some of the earlier reports this spring I thought he was being buzzed as perhaps the 1st or 2nd pitcher taken. He had some hamstring injury or something lately? Is the disinterest in him simply that he's a pitcher, or that his stuff isn't really quite that good, doesn't have enough movement on his fastball? If he goes before us, will you be thrilled, because that's a guy you didn't want taken, and one you hope lasts that's gotten past one more team? Or would you be happy if he got to us and we took him? Or happy that he lasted to us but then angry if we passed on him?

Any sense on his signability? I'd think he won't want to go back for his senior year, because you can't go much higher, and he'd have zero leverage if he did. If he lasts to 6, and he's even-on-your-BPA board with a HS player, might it be smart to take the college guy who might sign one or two hundred K underslot, and then have a little more to overslot down the line?

 

Q3: I thought when I browsed this forum early in spring there was enthusiasm for Zinino. Would you now be disappointed if he lasted to us and we ended up picking him?

[davell]

Craig, Buxton is definitely a top 3 talent. I don't think there's a chance he makes it to 6. Really starting to think the same on Correa. Gausman's in the same boat. Very slimmest of slim chance Appel makes it, in my opinion. Five percent maybe. As for Zimmer, his velo has been a bit up and down, he's currently nursing a minor leg injury and he's lost a little luster. Personally, I'd still be pretty happy if that's the way we go. In fact, I kind of doubt we'll have much opposition on this board at all as long as one of eight or nine guys is chosen. As for Zunino, the beef with him is upside. Plus, he's struggled a bit in conference play this year. Again, if he's our pick, I'm fine with it. The 9 guys I'm OK with(order changes daily) are Appel, Gausman, Zimmer, Zunino, Buxton, Correa, Almora, Giolito, and Fried.

[Guest]

I've been distracted and have had less time than ever to read/track for draft. And moving it up puts it ahead of my normal schedule, too. So I don't feel like I know much.

 

Q1: Bruxton has been a long-term premise as going 1 or 2, or at lowest 3. Is that still true? Is there a chance that he'll slip down to us? If so, would that be a good thing and you'd want us to pick him? Or at this point is he a guy you'd not want to touch?

 

Q2: I get the sense the board isn't very interested in Zimmer. Some of the earlier reports this spring I thought he was being buzzed as perhaps the 1st or 2nd pitcher taken. He had some hamstring injury or something lately? Is the disinterest in him simply that he's a pitcher, or that his stuff isn't really quite that good, doesn't have enough movement on his fastball? If he goes before us, will you be thrilled, because that's a guy you didn't want taken, and one you hope lasts that's gotten past one more team? Or would you be happy if he got to us and we took him? Or happy that he lasted to us but then angry if we passed on him?

Any sense on his signability? I'd think he won't want to go back for his senior year, because you can't go much higher, and he'd have zero leverage if he did. If he lasts to 6, and he's even-on-your-BPA board with a HS player, might it be smart to take the college guy who might sign one or two hundred K underslot, and then have a little more to overslot down the line?

 

Q3: I thought when I browsed this forum early in spring there was enthusiasm for Zinino. Would you now be disappointed if he lasted to us and we ended up picking him?

 

1: Doesn't seem likely that Buxton will slip below #3. I would take him but he does have a high bust possibility as a high ceiling/high risk guy who hasn't been tested much (seems like the Bubba Starling comparison is apt).

 

2: One reason Zimmer's stock is falling is fluctuating velocity readings week to week. He has gotten past the hamstring injury but his stuff has slipped a bit. I wouldn't complain if the Cubs take him - he's good value at #6, he is still learning to pitch and is projectable. I can't speak of others who aren't as interested in him. I haven't heard that he isn't signable but I doubt he'll want underslot. My thoughts are that there are about 7 fantastic prospects (besides the wildcard that is Lucas Giolito) who I would be happy with at 6 - Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman, Kyle Zimmer, Mike Zunino, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Albert Almora.

 

3: I would be happy with Zunino but I know a lot wouldn't. He projects to provide all-star caliber catching - sure, he isn't as a high a ceiling as any of the other 7 I listed, but he's the safest and I don't see how you can complain about all-star ceiling at 7. He's not my #1 choice of guy there, though.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I've been distracted and have had less time than ever to read/track for draft. And moving it up puts it ahead of my normal schedule, too. So I don't feel like I know much.

 

Q1: Bruxton has been a long-term premise as going 1 or 2, or at lowest 3. Is that still true? Is there a chance that he'll slip down to us? If so, would that be a good thing and you'd want us to pick him? Or at this point is he a guy you'd not want to touch?

 

Q2: I get the sense the board isn't very interested in Zimmer. Some of the earlier reports this spring I thought he was being buzzed as perhaps the 1st or 2nd pitcher taken. He had some hamstring injury or something lately? Is the disinterest in him simply that he's a pitcher, or that his stuff isn't really quite that good, doesn't have enough movement on his fastball? If he goes before us, will you be thrilled, because that's a guy you didn't want taken, and one you hope lasts that's gotten past one more team? Or would you be happy if he got to us and we took him? Or happy that he lasted to us but then angry if we passed on him?

Any sense on his signability? I'd think he won't want to go back for his senior year, because you can't go much higher, and he'd have zero leverage if he did. If he lasts to 6, and he's even-on-your-BPA board with a HS player, might it be smart to take the college guy who might sign one or two hundred K underslot, and then have a little more to overslot down the line?

 

Q3: I thought when I browsed this forum early in spring there was enthusiasm for Zinino. Would you now be disappointed if he lasted to us and we ended up picking him?

 

Q1: Bruxton has been a long-term premise as going 1 or 2, or at lowest 3. Is that still true? Is there a chance that he'll slip down to us? If so, would that be a good thing and you'd want us to pick him? Or at this point is he a guy you'd not want to touch?

 

Q2: I get the sense the board isn't very interested in Zimmer. Some of the earlier reports this spring I thought he was being buzzed as perhaps the 1st or 2nd pitcher taken. He had some hamstring injury or something lately? Is the disinterest in him simply that he's a pitcher, or that his stuff isn't really quite that good, doesn't have enough movement on his fastball? If he goes before us, will you be thrilled, because that's a guy you didn't want taken, and one you hope lasts that's gotten past one more team? Or would you be happy if he got to us and we took him? Or happy that he lasted to us but then angry if we passed on him?

Any sense on his signability? I'd think he won't want to go back for his senior year, because you can't go much higher, and he'd have zero leverage if he did. If he lasts to 6, and he's even-on-your-BPA board with a HS player, might it be smart to take the college guy who might sign one or two hundred K underslot, and then have a little more to overslot down the line?

 

Q3: I thought when I browsed this forum early in spring there was enthusiasm for Zinino. Would you now be disappointed if he lasted to us and we ended up picking him?

 

Buxton would be great at 6, and is a definite possibility in the top 3 spots. He's still as loaded with tools and upside as any prospect in this draft. Went #1 in Minorleaguebal's mock the other day. I think the buzz going down is more because it's time for other guys to get their 15 minutes.

 

Zimmer, to me anyway, was the original smoke screen in this draft. He's more in the class of a Luke Hochevar than an actually elite college pitching prospect, which Appel and Gausman are closer to. Probably my least favorite of the arms being talked about in the top 10. I'll let others handle the signability stuff in detail but I expect he'll be an easy sign, which could play into the last part of your question and make him a top 10 pick. He's got good upside if that's how you're looking to work the draft.

 

Zunino is relatively safe, has long term starter upside, and will do it at a premium position. I think he's mostly been hurt by new, shiny toys popping up, a low batting average, and not really being considered an elite talent. Realistically he seems like he is a nice pick who will arrive quicker than most, but I might be disappointed in not being able to land one of the players with more perceived upside.

[RammyFanny]

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2012/05/giolito-throws/

[davell]

Callis expects the 1st round and supplemental round to kind of go to form, with BPA, for the most part. He then thinks HS kids get picked in the 2nd and 3rd, with lots of College guys from the 4th through the 10th rounds, including a bunch of easier to sign seniors. Here's a group of 10 College Seniors I think probably fall in that area and may provide value to us as cheap signs and also have talent as well.

James Ramsey OF, Pete O'Brien C, Matthew Reckling SP, Jeremy Rathjen OF, Preston Tucker OF, Taylor Dugas OF, Matthew Price RP, Sam Stafford SP, Jason Coats OF, and Austin Nola SS.

 

The new CBA dictates you have to offer 40% of slot to anyone you pick inside the first 10 rounds, so these guys hold a little value because they're solid, can probably become major leaguers and should be cheap, if we want to spend money on high upside guys elsewhere.

[Guest]

Goldstein's draft board is up. It's premium BP content but everyone can see his top 5 blurbs.

 

His top 5 is:

 

Correa

Giolito

Buxton

Appel

Zimmer

[craig]

Signability scouting has been a huge component of the draft for years. I think that must be even more true to the max now under the new CBA. I think kids submit something to mlb that all teams see about their $$ expectations/demands, but I suspect a lot of kids don't know and that when it comes to cases in June, it's often different from what they listed in April or whatever. I suspect the ability for scouts to get a better read on what the kid would really sign for is more critical than ever. Much more. Can't take a 6th-round kid thinking he'll come to terms, and if he doesn't just spread the money over three guys you took in the 20's. You've really got to know. Probably changes what scouts have to do.

 

Question: In past, teams routinely included college scholarships in their offers. How are those allowed/treated in the new rules? Banned? They count as full price, even if the kid never actually uses/accepts that money?

 

Question: What do you think of the following rationale?

 

Team/Cubs: BPA for signable guys should apply, no question. But price has to enter. Suppose the guys you really love a ton are taken, and a college and HS guy are ranked exactly equal BPA. (I'll just use Zimmer and Almora as names...) Wouldn't you for sure choose Zimmer, and then stick to a modest sub-slot offer? (Say $3.0 versus 3.25?) Under the new system, he'd need to go in the top 4 next year to beat $3.0. How likely is that he'd turn down a modest subslot? But by saving $250K, couldn't that really help you out with some of your other picks early? Related, but what if you like Almora just a little bit more, but it's not clear. You know, four of the top seven voices in the room argue for Almora, three for Zimmer, but even the Almora proponents aren't sure. If Zimmer will sign for $3.0, and Almora will require full $3.25, is Almora preferred enough to pay the extra $250K?

 

Player: Zimmer: "Hi, Kyle, this is Theo Epstein calling. Say, we've got you real close to another guy on our board, but my scouting director Jason McLeod is going to take the other guy cost being equal. But if you're willing to sign just a hair under slot, at $3.0 instead of $3.25, we'll pick you. If you say no, we'll pick the other guy, and the $3.0 we'd pay is right on slot for pick 7. If we don't take you, slot for pick 7 is $3.0, same as what we're offering. So if we don't pick you, you'll probably get at best equal to what we're offering, and maybe less. What do you thing?"

 

Wouldn't he pretty much have to take it?

[jersey cubs fan]

I think that must be even more true to the max

 

like, totally, for sure

[davell]

Signability scouting has been a huge component of the draft for years. I think that must be even more true to the max now under the new CBA. I think kids submit something to mlb that all teams see about their $$ expectations/demands, but I suspect a lot of kids don't know and that when it comes to cases in June, it's often different from what they listed in April or whatever. I suspect the ability for scouts to get a better read on what the kid would really sign for is more critical than ever. Much more. Can't take a 6th-round kid thinking he'll come to terms, and if he doesn't just spread the money over three guys you took in the 20's. You've really got to know. Probably changes what scouts have to do.

 

Question: In past, teams routinely included college scholarships in their offers. How are those allowed/treated in the new rules? Banned? They count as full price, even if the kid never actually uses/accepts that money?

 

Question: What do you think of the following rationale?

 

Team/Cubs: BPA for signable guys should apply, no question. But price has to enter. Suppose the guys you really love a ton are taken, and a college and HS guy are ranked exactly equal BPA. (I'll just use Zimmer and Almora as names...) Wouldn't you for sure choose Zimmer, and then stick to a modest sub-slot offer? (Say $3.0 versus 3.25?) Under the new system, he'd need to go in the top 4 next year to beat $3.0. How likely is that he'd turn down a modest subslot? But by saving $250K, couldn't that really help you out with some of your other picks early? Related, but what if you like Almora just a little bit more, but it's not clear. You know, four of the top seven voices in the room argue for Almora, three for Zimmer, but even the Almora proponents aren't sure. If Zimmer will sign for $3.0, and Almora will require full $3.25, is Almora preferred enough to pay the extra $250K?

 

Player: Zimmer: "Hi, Kyle, this is Theo Epstein calling. Say, we've got you real close to another guy on our board, but my scouting director Jason McLeod is going to take the other guy cost being equal. But if you're willing to sign just a hair under slot, at $3.0 instead of $3.25, we'll pick you. If you say no, we'll pick the other guy, and the $3.0 we'd pay is right on slot for pick 7. If we don't take you, slot for pick 7 is $3.0, same as what we're offering. So if we don't pick you, you'll probably get at best equal to what we're offering, and maybe less. What do you thing?"

 

Wouldn't he pretty much have to take it?

 

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking as well. Maybe even more drastic in some cases. Fried is a good example, because if he's who we want, he may last until 9 or 10 if we don't take him. Leaving quite a bit of wiggle room for slotting. You just need to be sure you've got a solid group of guys to choose from that you feel will be there later on that you feel really good about taking. The more likely scenario though, is you take who you want early, then try and make up for it with some senior signs in rounds 5-10. Sure, you're missing out on some decent players at those spots with upside, but hopefully you've gotten bigger upside guys with your early picks anyway.

[davell]

And speaking of this exact scenario, ABTY from PSD just said he's heard Astros are better than 50/50 at this point on taking Correa at 1, because his agent has already let it be known he'll accept way less than slot if picked there.

[UK1679666180]

I'd be quite happy with that, because Sims is a phenomenal get at 43. I don't like taking relievers early, but I like Sims enough to not care about Magnifico, who does throw as hard or harder than anyone in the draft. I'm fine with Zunino, not sure I'd take him over Almora or not. If we pass on Giolito, I'm figuring we had reason to do so.

 

It's from May 18th.

UK, is that your own mock, by any chance?

 

davell, I think that was the perfectgame mock draft.

 

Correct, I haven't seen any of the likely top 50 picks.

[UK1679666180]

PG rated Correa's hit/power ahead of Buxton. That surprised me, knew Buxton has more speed, arm strength, defense but I assumed Buxton has more raw power.

[toonsterwu]

Interesting ... isn't Buxton viewed as having potential plus power? Are they projecting plus-plus power for Correa, or is this a case of, we like his power slightly better?

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

PG rated Correa's hit/power ahead of Buxton. That surprised me, knew Buxton has more speed, arm strength, defense but I assumed Buxton has more raw power.

 

I assumed a better hit tool. Buxton's power has gotten a question or two this Spring, and Correa's momentum could take that.

[Guest]

Keith Law should be posting his second mock draft shortly on ESPN.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Goldstein on Kyle Zimmer:

 

5. Kyle Zimmer RHP, San Francisco

Who he is: There are many teams who have Zimmer ahead of Appel on their boards. He has size and extreme athleticism for a pitcher, along with plus command and control of a bigtime fastball that consistently touches the upper 90s while touching 98-99 mph. His curveball is a plus pitch, and while his changeup needs consistency, it has potential. With two dominant offerings in a non-elite conference, he's been able to blow hitters away, and will need to learn how to sequence as a pro.

 

Draft skinny: Zimmer could go as high as No. 2 overall to Minnesota, and it's hard to see him falling out of the top five picks.

 

Whaaa? If true, I'm sorry I ever said anything bad about Kyle Zimmer.

[El Duderino]

where does Goldstein have Zunino?

[javy knows my name]

Player: Zimmer: "Hi, Kyle, this is Theo Epstein calling. Say, we've got you real close to another guy on our board, but my scouting director Jason McLeod is going to take the other guy cost being equal. But if you're willing to sign just a hair under slot, at $3.0 instead of $3.25, we'll pick you. If you say no, we'll pick the other guy, and the $3.0 we'd pay is right on slot for pick 7. If we don't take you, slot for pick 7 is $3.0, same as what we're offering. So if we don't pick you, you'll probably get at best equal to what we're offering, and maybe less. What do you thing?"

 

Wouldn't he pretty much have to take it?

 

Theo's kinda folksy in this hypothetical. I like it.