2011 Cubs picks and signings thread

[Little Slide Rooter]

I really hope we can sign Maples, and I know we have the money. Gretzky and Dunston would be cool due to the names, but aside from Baez, the portly 1st baseman, and maybe Zych, nobody else seems particularly exciting.

[toonsterwu]

Scott is intriguing enough. I hadn't realized he was up to the low 90's. Only recalled the old reports. He's going to fill out a bit more, in all likelihood.

 

Also, Roderick Shoulders holds some intrigue for me with his raw power, but this feels like a Strieby pick last year, a guy that I'd be surprised if he signed.

[davell]

What was Garcia's injury? He seems like a guy who would have went much higher if he weren't hurt. He'll be another guy we'd have to overslot, if I'm guessing.

[Guest]

Scott is intriguing enough. I hadn't realized he was up to the low 90's. Only recalled the old reports. He's going to fill out a bit more, in all likelihood.

 

Also, Roderick Shoulders holds some intrigue for me with his raw power, but this feels like a Strieby pick last year, a guy that I'd be surprised if he signed.

I really want to have a guy named Rock Shoulders in the system, though.

[Little Slide Rooter]

So is there anybody in the lower 15 of our picks that could potantially be a sleeper ala McNutt or Beeler?

[toonsterwu]

So is there anybody in the lower 15 of our picks that could potantially be a sleeper ala McNutt or Beeler?

 

Both McNutt and Beeler were picked in rounds that have yet to occur in this draft, so there might be a better sleeper at day's end, but the pitcher that stands out right nw as a McNutt-ish type guy is Michael Jensen in that his velocity really picked up this year. Some had him topping out 95/96, and he has a solid breaking ball to work with right now. Gonna be a tough sign from USC, though.

[CP_414]

I really like this draft so far. Lots of high upside high school picks. Signability will determine if this draft is a success. The major league team won't need any extra resources this summer and should have a few dollars cut off the payroll. They need to get these guys signed and add some high ceiling talent to the system.

 

Speaking of the major league Cubs is it too early to start looking forward to the 2012 draft? The Cubs are making a run at 1-1. I know Stanford has a SS and starting pitcher projected top 5, and Lance McCullers looks like the top prep arm. Any other names floating out there as potential 1-1 picks?

[craig]

Are we sure Tim Wilken ran this draft? 12 of the first 15 guys were high schoolers. Quite a few guys with huge upside and low floors, for that matter. We even took an inordinate amount of corner guys. Depending on who we sign, I could actually see giving us an A Grade for this draft.

 

Last year out of the first 30 picks, 19 were 20 or less, in other words HS, JC, or soph-eligible. So it's not that novel. But certainly WAY younger.

 

I think Maples is a remotely long shot, unless he really pitches like a stud this summer and makes them feel like they're getting a true first rounder, AND he still reduces his demands.

 

But basically any one of these 23 picks who are 20 or less are going to require serious money to sign, why else? They will all 20-or-under slot ($120-200K) minimum, and of course in many cases more (as was true with Wells and Szczur last year, and the guys in the first handful or rounds under any circumstances.

[Guest]

I really like this draft so far. Lots of high upside high school picks. Signability will determine if this draft is a success. The major league team won't need any extra resources this summer and should have a few dollars cut off the payroll. They need to get these guys signed and add some high ceiling talent to the system.

 

Speaking of the major league Cubs is it too early to start looking forward to the 2012 draft? The Cubs are making a run at 1-1. I know Stanford has a SS and starting pitcher projected top 5, and Lance McCullers looks like the top prep arm. Any other names floating out there as potential 1-1 picks?

 

The 2 Stanford players - SS Kenny Diekroger and RHP Mark Appel.

 

ASU's Jake Barrett (RHP) and LSU's Kevin Gausmann (a sophomore) are a couple of other big college names. A couple of other preps are RHP Nick Williams (Galveston, TX), 3B Trey Williams (Santa Clarita, CA) and RHP Lucas Giolito (Santa Monica, CA). The college class is weak, hopefully the prep class will step up.

[Guest]

I assume there is very little likelihood of signing Maples. If he's that good and teams thought he was a good value per his price, he'd have gone far earlier.

 

So he's a draft-and-follow and talk pick, IMO. Right now, if anybody wanted to pay him what he was asking he'd have already gone, so right now the Cubs aren't willing to pay what he's asking. Three scenarios, after they watch him in whatever summer league he goes to.

 

1. He pitches great, and they decide that he's a good value as a top-ten type pick and they end up paying what he wants. Cubs become willing to pay much more than they are willing to pay now.

 

2. He pitches really well, so they make him a strong offer, but one still well below his price tag. Then he and his family decide if they are going to just stick on what they listed, or are going to reduce their demands. Maples becomes willing to sign for much less than he claims he is willing to sign for now.

 

3. He doesn't pitch well enough to get the Cubs up to his demands, and he and his Dad won't move off of his demands. No deal is made, or comes close.

 

I expect that scenario 3 is by far the most likely, and that he won't sign. I think scenario 1, in which the Cubs pay the full demanded $3, is by far the most unlikely. Scenario 2 is where I hope it goes.

 

I agree with you that scenario #2 is our best chance but I too fear #3 is most likely.

[craig]

During the draft, I noted that some of the draftniks were hoping for Dunston. The snapshot description made him seem as qualified for the 40th round as the 11th.

 

Is he actually a serious pro prospect, better than your normal 11th rounder? And if so, what's the appeal. Power hitter? 5-tools type? Leadoff type? I didn't actually see much about his perceived baseball stuff other than family notes, and that he's really raw. Is he expected to be a big signability challenge?

 

Probably most of them are.

[nick23]

During the draft, I noted that some of the draftniks were hoping for Dunston. The snapshot description made him seem as qualified for the 40th round as the 11th.

 

Is he actually a serious pro prospect, better than your normal 11th rounder? And if so, what's the appeal. Power hitter? 5-tools type? Leadoff type? I didn't actually see much about his perceived baseball stuff other than family notes, and that he's really raw. Is he expected to be a big signability challenge?

 

Probably most of them are.

Keith Law ranked him the 58th best prospect.

[toonsterwu]

being a uva fan, one guy to watch out for next year in the college crop that will be under the radar a bit is Branden Kline. 6th round pick out of HS by the Red Sox, IIRC. Loaded UVA pitching staff the last two years (Hultzen, Wilson, Roberts were all selected, and my guess is that Winiarski will as well, and last year, Morey to the Marlins) limited his PT his freshman year and had him in the pen this year. Kid has big time stuff, though, and will get a crack at being the Friday starter for the Wahoos next year.

 

As a side note, while my memory of the 90's Blue Jays draft is a bit weak these days, this was the Wilken I had expected/hoped for when he joined the organization, the guy that took some prep chances. Certainly, other guys have done it to lesser success, but my memory seems to suggest to me that he did a fairly good job gambling on prep picks back with the Blue Jays. He's indicated before that he adjusted his drafting to the organization he was in.

 

Hearing some positive things on Elias, speaking of sleeper picks. Hard to really get a feel for the traveling Canadian teams.

[Guest]

During the draft, I noted that some of the draftniks were hoping for Dunston. The snapshot description made him seem as qualified for the 40th round as the 11th.

 

Is he actually a serious pro prospect, better than your normal 11th rounder? And if so, what's the appeal. Power hitter? 5-tools type? Leadoff type? I didn't actually see much about his perceived baseball stuff other than family notes, and that he's really raw. Is he expected to be a big signability challenge?

 

Probably most of them are.

 

He's definitely a signability challenge. Most kids who commit to Vandy are.

[craig]

..Is he (Dunston) actually a serious pro prospect, better than your normal 11th rounder? And if so, what's the appeal. Power hitter? 5-tools type? Leadoff type? .... Is he expected to be a big signability challenge?.....

Keith Law ranked him the 58th best prospect.

 

Interesting. Perhaps reflects how widely opinions can vary. Just to read the BA report, a guy with speed that gets listed as "above average" and whose hitting potential is that he "could grow into gap power and be an average hitter", that doesn't seem like the 58th best prospect. Raw guy with gap power as his power ceiling and to become an average hitter being his hitting ceiling, that doesn't seem very exciting to me. For an outfielder, I'd think there are guys like that hanging around till round 50, usually.

 

But, of course, every scout has his own opinions. So I assume that Law sees his speed (and CF potential) probably being better than just "above average", and I imagine projects the possibility of power that is greater than just gap power, and hitting that is potentially better than just average.

 

I assume that if Wilken bothered to use a pick on him, knowing that he's going to be an expensive buyout, he must think the potential is there to perhaps be better than just a gap-power average hitter, too.

 

BA: ...surprisingly raw. He is an above-average runner, which helps both on the bases and in center field..... As Dunston fills out, he could grow into gap power and be an average hitter. Scouts love his speed, passion for the game

[erik316wttn]

Wayne Gretzky's kid, huh? Interesting.

[nick23]

From Law:

The son of Shawon Dunston, the No. 1 overall pick in the 1982 draft, he might be the least likely player on the top 100 to sign given his disappointing senior year and strong commitment to Vanderbilt, but he has the tools to become a first-round talent in 2014 if he gets stronger.

 

He wraps his bat slightly but has excellent bat speed and good hip rotation to produce hard line-drive contact, and showed at the Area Code Games last year that he had an idea at the plate. His bat speed is good enough for him to turn on above-average fastballs, but he'll need more upper-body strength to convert those line drives into more hits. He's a plus runner with a strong arm who should be able to handle centerfield. The tough spring performance hurt his stock for the 2011 draft, but Vandy develops players as well as almost any program and it's an ideal spot for Dunston if he doesn't sign.

[craig]

Thanks, Nick. Not sure how that gets him to #58, still doesn't sound that hot. But sounds like a guy you'd like to sign if he's reasonable.

[craig]

2.Vogelbach, Daniel Bishop Verot HS (FL) 1B L/R 6'00" 250 1992-12-17 18 HS

"We made a decision of what it would be worth not to go to college," said father Dan Vogelbach, whose son received a scholarship to attend the University of Florida. "We were not going to deviate, so we agreed not to go lower." Before the draft, the Vogelbachs wrote down the bonus amount they wanted, sent it to the Major League Scouting Bureau and asked that it be given to every team. Dan Vogelbach said what they asked for is a little higher than what past picks at No. 68 averaged. Those ranged from $477,000 to $1.1 million the past five years. "Four teams said it was an extremely fair number," Dan Vogelbach said.

 

3.DeVoss, Ezekiel Miami CF S/R 5'10" 175 1990-07-17 20 SO

"The Cubs are going to be calling back in the next couple of days to discuss things," DeVoss told the Miami Herald. "I don't intend on having it be something that lasts all summer. I'll decide in the next week or two. At this point, it's really 50-50. "I would like to sign, but I wouldn't have any problem with coming back next year.

 

5.Scott, Tayler Notre Dame HS (AZ) RHP R/R 6'03" 165 1992-06-01 19 HS

Among the Arizona recruiting class, Tayler Scott, a pitcher from Scottsdale Notre Dame, was selected in the fifth round by the Chicago Cubs. He told the Arizona Republic that he will sign a pro contract as he pursues his dream of being the first South African to reach the major leagues.

 

7.Gretzky, Trevor Oaks Christian HS (CA) 1B L/L 6'04" 190 1992-09-14 18 HS

The 6-foot-4, 190-pound Gretzky has committed to San Diego State, but probably won't play for the Tony Gwynn-led Aztecs. "It's still early, but I want to start my pro career as soon as possible," Gretzky said. "If it works out, great. But I am going to talk to (the Cubs) in the next couple of days and see. Nothing is set in stone yet."

 

9.Schlecht, Garrett Waterloo HS (IL) RF L/L 6'02" 1993-02-15 18 HS

"I always said when I was little that I wanted to be a professional baseball player and I finally earned my spot," he said. "I worked really hard at a it and it's a dream come true."

 

Summary: No idea on Zych, but sounds like Vogelbach will require superslot over a million, but the Cubs knew that and are prepared to pay. Sure safe superslot, the only question is how much. Otherwise, it seems like basically all of the first ten picks will be signable. Gretzky, Taylor, Schlecht, they all sound like they'll sign assuming the Cubs give the typical HS slot prices (which are of course "overslot" relative to college players in the same rounds.) I assume Lockhart will be signable, since his Dad works for them so they should have a pretty clear grip on what the family expects, and since he's not that high-ceiling a guy they wouldn't pick him that high if they expected signability to be real challenging. No idea on the Puerto Rican catcher, and last year we whiffed on Puerto Rican DeJesus. But Rosario didn't sound like that amazing of a prospect, so you don't spend 6th pick on a guy unless you're either pretty confident he'll sign or unless you think he's so spectacular that he's worth gambling on. Maybe the latter applies, but if not, then they probably figure he's signable.

 

It's after the first ten rounds that things get dicey, with Dunston and Maples especially.

 

 

23.Zimmer, Bradley La Jolla HS (CA) CF L/R 6'04" 185 1992-11-27 18 HS

..Both Zimmer boys value education, which for Bradley, is one reason why he wants to play in college. He knows that if not drafted high enough, it might not be worth it to him to miss out on his education. “I feel like I would be missing a chapter in my life,” Bradley said. “I have such a good offer there, my brother is there and I would love to play with him again.”

The higher a player is drafted, the more money he can get with a contract and a signing bonus. Bradley is not sure where he will get drafted, but he thinks somewhere in the first 10 rounds.

 

Note: Obviously he's not signing for 23rd round slot. But if he's thinking top 10 rounds, if you pay him 8th round HS slot it sounds like he might be signable. So I'm figuring the standard $120-200K HS slot might get fairly close.

 

25.Shoulders, Roderick State College of

Florida Manatee - Sarasota 1B L/R 6'02" 225 1991-09-26 19 J1

He hopes to meet with Cubs officials soon to discuss a potential deal, though he added his draft position certainly wasn't what he was hoping for. "As of right now I still don't know what's going on, but I doubt they want to give me what I want that late, drafting me that late in the draft. But there's no telling," said Shoulders, who spent this past season at State College of Florida, Manatee-Sarasota. "They could do it; they could not. But worse comes to worst, which it isn't a bad thing, I go to USF. But I love that place, so it's not a bad thing to go there. Right now I feel I'm in a great situation being 19 years old with two great choices to pick from."

 

Note: again, sounds to me like if you offer 10th round money, or teenage slot $120-250K, he'll be signable.

[Guest]

Jim Callis will be on 670 The Score at 11 am talking about the Cubs' (and White Sox) drafts. If anyone listens, let us know what you hear.

[craig]

I know that we as fans usually want one or two monster superslot picks, what Maples would be in the incredibly unlikely event that we actually paid what he asked for. Or like Samardz, Huseby, and Szczur involved.

 

But I think that there are a lot of HS/JC type teenagers who are willing to sign for 6th round type money.

 

Last year we did the big superslots on Szczur and Ben Wells.

 

But we also signed about ten guys to "teenage slot" deals, the kind of deal that an 8th rounder or whatever would get, that stuff in the $120K and higher range. Greathouse, Kurcz, Reed, Richardson, Hartman, Fitzgerald, Geiger, Harman, and Beeler, all of those guys were at least $120K, which I think is formally slot for 7th or 8th round. Likewise McNutt, Struck, Mincone, Burruel, Fitzgerald were all in that area two years ago.

 

So my guess is that after paying Vogelbach superslot and paying modest HS overslots on other guys in the top ten, that if they have $3-4 million to spend after that, it's more likely to sign fifteen guys at $200K than to spend the same $3 million on Maples. If you have 15 teenagers who you view as 8th-round type talents, guys who might project into excellence, my guess is that's the direction they plan to go.

 

If Dunston looks great and will sign for $450, and Maples looks like a stud and will sign for $1.5, maybe they'll do that to or instead, who knows.

[EhDubya]

http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/1270/barf.jpg Edited June 8, 2011 by EhDubya

[nick23]

Law's thoughts on day 2 for the Cubs:

Cubs: Dan Vogelbach (2) will be a fan favorite ("Heavy D" seems to be the obvious nickname) if he makes it to the majors as a super-sized left-handed hitter with power to match and no defensive value whatsoever. Tony Zych (4) is one of the hardest-throwing relievers in the draft with two above-average pitches but needs to improve his command to profile as a late-game guy. Right-hander Tayler Scott (5) flashed good velocity early in the spring and is an excellent athlete but is more of a long-term project. Trevor Gretzky (7), son of you-know-who, has some power but is very raw as a baseball player and probably would be best served going to college. Taylor Dugas (8) is at the other end of the spectrum, lacking Gretzky's physical gifts but showing an uncanny ability to square up the ball and make hard contact even though he's just 5-foot-8. Two likely unsignable picks who'd be great gets in later rounds: Shawon Dunston Jr. (11) and Dillon Maples (14). Even without them, it's a solid, deep crop.

[Pushfrog98]

http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/1270/barf.jpg

He's a Mog!

[Tryptamine]

I know that we as fans usually want one or two monster superslot picks, what Maples would be in the incredibly unlikely event that we actually paid what he asked for. Or like Samardz, Huseby, and Szczur involved.

 

But I think that there are a lot of HS/JC type teenagers who are willing to sign for 6th round type money.

 

Last year we did the big superslots on Szczur and Ben Wells.

 

But we also signed about ten guys to "teenage slot" deals, the kind of deal that an 8th rounder or whatever would get, that stuff in the $120K and higher range. Greathouse, Kurcz, Reed, Richardson, Hartman, Fitzgerald, Geiger, Harman, and Beeler, all of those guys were at least $120K, which I think is formally slot for 7th or 8th round. Likewise McNutt, Struck, Mincone, Burruel, Fitzgerald were all in that area two years ago.

 

So my guess is that after paying Vogelbach superslot and paying modest HS overslots on other guys in the top ten, that if they have $3-4 million to spend after that, it's more likely to sign fifteen guys at $200K than to spend the same $3 million on Maples. If you have 15 teenagers who you view as 8th-round type talents, guys who might project into excellence, my guess is that's the direction they plan to go.

 

If Dunston looks great and will sign for $450, and Maples looks like a stud and will sign for $1.5, maybe they'll do that to or instead, who knows.

 

If the Cubs were really in on Starling or Bradley then there's enough money to go around when you consider that Baez will be somewhere around slot. That should leave plenty of money to at least make legitimate offers to Dunston, Maples etc.