General 2011 Other Games Thread

[Little Slide Rooter]

Dan [expletive] Johnson, Evan [expletive] Longoria, Nolan [expletive] Reimold, Robert [expletive] Andino, and of course, Jonathon [expletive] Papelbon.

[UMFan83]

Yeah, but watching them get dumped in 3 games after fighting and clawing their hearts out to get there might be more satisfying than if they hadn't made it at all.

 

Only if Holliday takes one off the nuts again.

 

TBH, the Cardinals could win the series. I won't pick them but they have the middle of the order that can get to the Phils pitching hypothetically.

[UMFan83]

If I could show you a minute by minute reaction to last night's events by Bill Simmons, would that be something you'd be interested in?

 

Oh, ok here you go:

 

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7033950/a-running-diary-game-162

[sneakypower]

4:22 — Red Sox killer Robert Andino leads off for the Orioles as Daniel hisses, "That's just an eff you move by Showalter." Lester strikes him out. I've had Andino on my AL Keeper Team all season — he's a homeless man's Ben Zobrist. There's no better candidate to ruin the 2011 Red Sox season and join the Bucky Dent/Enos Slaughter/Aaron Boone group. He's the odds-on favorite.

 

who said Simmons wasn't good with predictions?

[ctcf]

Nate Silver on last night:

 

"The following is not mathematically rigorous, since the events of yesterday evening were contingent upon one another in various ways. But just for fun, let's put all of them together in sequence: The Red Sox had just a 0.3 percent chance of failing to make the playoffs on Sept. 3. The Rays had just a 0.3 percent chance of coming back after trailing 7-0 with two innings to play. The Red Sox had only about a 2 percent chance of losing their game against Baltimore, when the Orioles were down to their last strike. The Rays had about a 2 percent chance of winning in the bottom of the 9th, with Johnson also down to his last strike. Multiply those four probabilities together, and you get a combined probability of about one chance in 278 million of all these events coming together in quite this way. When confronted with numbers like these, you have to start to ask a few questions, statistical and existential."

[kujay]

Yeah, but watching them get dumped in 3 games after fighting and clawing their hearts out to get there might be more satisfying than if they hadn't made it at all.

 

Thanks for the effort at cheering me up.

 

That will be pretty awesome.

 

Yeah. You know, maybe things are going to be okay after all!

[Formerly Snayke]

Wouldn't it be smart for the Phillies to just say [expletive] it and let them score.

I'm probably biased but if I were Philly I'd be dying to play STL and therefore be trying to win this game. Their offense is real weak outside Albert and their pitching isn't good enough to make up for it. Arizona's got a scarier top of the rotation.

 

I saw this and was confused. Outside of Pujols the Cardinals have two .900 OPS hitters, two .800 OPS hitters and two hitters in the .775 range.

[UMFan83]

Wouldn't it be smart for the Phillies to just say [expletive] it and let them score.

I'm probably biased but if I were Philly I'd be dying to play STL and therefore be trying to win this game. Their offense is real weak outside Albert and their pitching isn't good enough to make up for it. Arizona's got a scarier top of the rotation.

 

I saw this and was confused. Outside of Pujols the Cardinals have two .900 OPS hitters, two .800 OPS hitters and two hitters in the .775 range.

 

and Ryan Theriot

[Formerly Snayke]

Wouldn't it be smart for the Phillies to just say [expletive] it and let them score.

I'm probably biased but if I were Philly I'd be dying to play STL and therefore be trying to win this game. Their offense is real weak outside Albert and their pitching isn't good enough to make up for it. Arizona's got a scarier top of the rotation.

 

I saw this and was confused. Outside of Pujols the Cardinals have two .900 OPS hitters, two .800 OPS hitters and two hitters in the .775 range.

 

and Ryan Theriot

 

It appears that he's become a bench player.

[UMFan83]

Wouldn't it be smart for the Phillies to just say [expletive] it and let them score.

I'm probably biased but if I were Philly I'd be dying to play STL and therefore be trying to win this game. Their offense is real weak outside Albert and their pitching isn't good enough to make up for it. Arizona's got a scarier top of the rotation.

 

I saw this and was confused. Outside of Pujols the Cardinals have two .900 OPS hitters, two .800 OPS hitters and two hitters in the .775 range.

 

and Ryan Theriot

 

It appears that he's become a bench player.

 

You can't quiet the Riot

[Formerly Snayke]

Not that I care about the Red Sox, but I don't understand the pounding Theo Epstein is taking over Crawford and Lackey.

[Formerly Snayke]

You can't quiet the Riot

 

Theriot will bat .600, win World Series MVP and get signed to a three-year extension.

[UMFan83]

You can't quiet the Riot

 

Theriot will bat .600, win World Series MVP and get signed to a three-year extension.

 

Only to have the contract voided when he tests positive for pixie dust.

[UMFan83]

I wish Nate Silver could figure out the odds, given the scenarios entering the last day of the season, that we would be deprived of no tiebreaker games the last 2 seasons.

 

IIRC, there were 3 teams with a chance to win the NL Wild Card last year, and given the 8 scenarios possible, a 75% chance of seeing a tiebreaker game.

[Omar]

Nate Silver on last night:

 

"The following is not mathematically rigorous, since the events of yesterday evening were contingent upon one another in various ways. But just for fun, let's put all of them together in sequence: The Red Sox had just a 0.3 percent chance of failing to make the playoffs on Sept. 3. The Rays had just a 0.3 percent chance of coming back after trailing 7-0 with two innings to play. The Red Sox had only about a 2 percent chance of losing their game against Baltimore, when the Orioles were down to their last strike. The Rays had about a 2 percent chance of winning in the bottom of the 9th, with Johnson also down to his last strike. Multiply those four probabilities together, and you get a combined probability of about one chance in 278 million of all these events coming together in quite this way. When confronted with numbers like these, you have to start to ask a few questions, statistical and existential."

 

http://i.imgur.com/2xFkc.jpg

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Nate Silver on last night:

 

"The following is not mathematically rigorous, since the events of yesterday evening were contingent upon one another in various ways. But just for fun, let's put all of them together in sequence: The Red Sox had just a 0.3 percent chance of failing to make the playoffs on Sept. 3. The Rays had just a 0.3 percent chance of coming back after trailing 7-0 with two innings to play. The Red Sox had only about a 2 percent chance of losing their game against Baltimore, when the Orioles were down to their last strike. The Rays had about a 2 percent chance of winning in the bottom of the 9th, with Johnson also down to his last strike. Multiply those four probabilities together, and you get a combined probability of about one chance in 278 million of all these events coming together in quite this way. When confronted with numbers like these, you have to start to ask a few questions, statistical and existential."

 

I flipped a coin today. There was a 50% chance it would land heads. There was also a 50% chance it would not land tails. Multiply those together, and it was an amazing 1 in 4 shot that I would flip a heads, but I did!

[woodchip2153]

Nate Silver on last night:

 

"The following is not mathematically rigorous, since the events of yesterday evening were contingent upon one another in various ways. But just for fun, let's put all of them together in sequence: The Red Sox had just a 0.3 percent chance of failing to make the playoffs on Sept. 3. The Rays had just a 0.3 percent chance of coming back after trailing 7-0 with two innings to play. The Red Sox had only about a 2 percent chance of losing their game against Baltimore, when the Orioles were down to their last strike. The Rays had about a 2 percent chance of winning in the bottom of the 9th, with Johnson also down to his last strike. Multiply those four probabilities together, and you get a combined probability of about one chance in 278 million of all these events coming together in quite this way. When confronted with numbers like these, you have to start to ask a few questions, statistical and existential."

 

I flipped a coin today. There was a 50% chance it would land heads. There was also a 50% chance it would not land tails. Multiply those together, and it was an amazing 1 in 4 shot that I would flip a heads, but I did!

 

Except what he did wasn't that. It was: a 50% chance you flipped tails and then a 50% chance you flipped tails on the second flip. Also there was a 50% chance I flipped a separate coin heads, and then a 50% chance I'd flip heads again, and a 50% chance I flipped heads again.

[Vanilla Ice]

The 0.3% chance of the Red Sox missing the playoffs on Sept. 3 includes the specific way of missing the playoffs that happened. You cannot multiply that percentage with the others, it is misleading

[UMFan83]

As bad as the Cubs have been, the Red Sox have only made one more playoff appearance than them over the last 6 years. And since 2007, they are tied in playoff wins (0).

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Nate Silver on last night:

 

"The following is not mathematically rigorous, since the events of yesterday evening were contingent upon one another in various ways. But just for fun, let's put all of them together in sequence: The Red Sox had just a 0.3 percent chance of failing to make the playoffs on Sept. 3. The Rays had just a 0.3 percent chance of coming back after trailing 7-0 with two innings to play. The Red Sox had only about a 2 percent chance of losing their game against Baltimore, when the Orioles were down to their last strike. The Rays had about a 2 percent chance of winning in the bottom of the 9th, with Johnson also down to his last strike. Multiply those four probabilities together, and you get a combined probability of about one chance in 278 million of all these events coming together in quite this way. When confronted with numbers like these, you have to start to ask a few questions, statistical and existential."

 

I flipped a coin today. There was a 50% chance it would land heads. There was also a 50% chance it would not land tails. Multiply those together, and it was an amazing 1 in 4 shot that I would flip a heads, but I did!

 

Except what he did wasn't that. It was: a 50% chance you flipped tails and then a 50% chance you flipped tails on the second flip. Also there was a 50% chance I flipped a separate coin heads, and then a 50% chance I'd flip heads again, and a 50% chance I flipped heads again.

 

I only flipped once.

[Guest]

Yes, that's why you're wrong.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The reasons go much deeper.

[SpongeWorthy]

I'm SICK..I'm just crying..seriously I am crying -- The Red Sox are part of my psyche since I was 3 years old and could remember wanting to play hardball. They said I couldn't cuz i was a girl, so I said I want to be a rabbi instead --- 1953 -- Nope they said can't do that so this little girl had to be satisfied watching from the bleachers...the two stories have no relation except my heart was and is broken -- The Red Sox, our beloved Red Sox -- I wore a Red Sox uniform to sleep when I was a kid. Boston my loved to the core Boston--I LOVE that city and this state SO much I would not care if it seceded from a union that does not work for me and so many others.

 

So I am sad on many levels. I never became a rabbi, I never got to play baseball and now now again my heart is down to my toes as my country sinks to the bottom fast and elects a president I thought was going to be FDR -- FAR from it. I prayed this am.. I never pray not because it's Rosh Hashanna, the Jewish high holiday, maybe that is unique but I just prayed because I am SO sad. Life's dreams get shattered and you don't know why except maybe god if there is one has other plans!

 

Please god can't you choose me to be on the lucky team just ONCE -- only once. Lucky are they who strike life's lottery. I didn't and the clock is running out on my game. If not now when?

[woodchip2153]

The 0.3% chance of the Red Sox missing the playoffs on Sept. 3 includes the specific way of missing the playoffs that happened. You cannot multiply that percentage with the others, it is misleading

 

I agree, and Nate alluded to that in the first sentence. I was just calling out Kyle.

[illiniguy]

You can't quiet the Riot

 

Theriot will bat .600, win World Series MVP and get signed to a three-year extension.

Oh wouldn't that just be horrible for Cardinal fans?