Jose Bautista - Exception to rule or Breaker of rule?

[EhDubya]

His numbers last year and the start of this year are, to put mildly, crazy.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bautijo02.shtml

[sneakypower]

68 HR in his last 190 games (.271/.390/.641)

57 HR in his previous 567 games (.238/.330/.392)

[NonProfitCow]

I remember reading that he made a big change to his swing towards the end of 2009. He hit 10 of his 13 HR in September and hasn't stopped. His HR/FB was 25.6% for Sept/Oct 09, 21.7% in 2010 and 28.6% so far this year. Have to think he's for real at this point.

[pitchcs]

I think it's safe to say he's officially pretty good going forward.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I remember reading that he made a big change to his swing towards the end of 2009. He hit 10 of his 13 HR in September and hasn't stopped. His HR/FB was 25.6% for Sept/Oct 09, 21.7% in 2010 and 28.6% so far this year. Have to think he's for real at this point.

His swing before that doesn't compare to his swing now. It's really like watching 2 different players.

[TruffleShuffle]

the thing i don't understand is that pretty much ALL of his power is pull power. why does he still see balls on the inner half of the plate?

[Proven Veteran]

Obviously it is much easier to hit in the AL East than in the NL Central.

[sneakypower]

the thing i don't understand is that pretty much ALL of his power is pull power. why does he still see balls on the inner half of the plate?

he's Bonds-ian in that he stands close enough to the plate to be able to pull outside pitches and has the eye to pass on pitches he can't murder; this HR (@1:25) off David Price is likely called a ball, outside, if he doesn't swing and he still pulls it out to LF

 

5 of his 9 HR are actually on pitches that were on the outer-third of the plate (and last year he had similar success in plate coverage)

http://joelefkowitz.com/batter_hr_sm.php?d1=-1&d2=-1&y=2011&pid=430832

[Wilson A2000]

the thing i don't understand is that pretty much ALL of his power is pull power. why does he still see balls on the inner half of the plate?

 

Pitchers miss their spots.

[Soul]

There's a pretty obvious explanation for a 30 year old who never generated any power in his life suddenly hitting like Bonds.

[TruffleShuffle]

There's a pretty obvious explanation for a 30 year old who never generated any power in his life suddenly hitting like Bonds.

 

change of batting stance?

 

seriously, bonds was an awesome hitter who became ridiculous after pumping his body full of juice. bautista was a mediocre player who has become terrific. steroids don't make lousy players become good; obviously there's something more than "oh look he's obviously juicing" at play here.

[Soul]

There's a pretty obvious explanation for a 30 year old who never generated any power in his life suddenly hitting like Bonds.

 

change of batting stance?

 

seriously, bonds was an awesome hitter who became ridiculous after pumping his body full of juice. bautista was a mediocre player who has become terrific. steroids don't make lousy players become good; obviously there's something more than "oh look he's obviously juicing" at play here.

 

I could see a change in mechanics accounting for some increase in power.

 

Going from mid-teens in homers to mid-50's? I'm just saying it's suspicious.

[TruffleShuffle]

see bob sanders' comment about his swing before looking nothing like his swing now.

 

what players did steroids turn from weak-hitting bums with an OPS in the low .700s to 50 home run terrors with an ops around 1.000? i can think of one guy who went crazy, brady anderson, and that only lasted one season... plus he was always a better player than bautista.

 

the other hole in your theory is that players are tested for steroids now, so if you're right then he's either using a really good masking agent or he's just using during the short offseason.

[Soul]

Or there are new drugs or combinations that evade detection.

[fiver]

HGH is only tested for in the minor leagues, right? ...or did I miss when it was extended to major league as well?

[SouthSideRyan]

There's a pretty obvious explanation for a 30 year old who never generated any power in his life suddenly hitting like Bonds.

 

I never trusted Davey Johnson.

[sneakypower]

what players did steroids turn from weak-hitting bums with an OPS in the low .700s to 50 home run terrors with an ops around 1.000? i can think of one guy who went crazy, brady anderson, and that only lasted one season... plus he was always a better player than bautista.

Luis Gonzalez's career almost perfectly mirrors Bautista's done so far

 

9 seasons with a .268/.341/.432 (.774) line, then he goes to Arizona and the next

3 seasons with a .324/.408/.593 (1.001) line

 

i don't even remember if he was linked with steroids, but a lot of that team was suspicious, Jay Bell most of all

[KingCubsFan]

what players did steroids turn from weak-hitting bums with an OPS in the low .700s to 50 home run terrors with an ops around 1.000? i can think of one guy who went crazy, brady anderson, and that only lasted one season... plus he was always a better player than bautista.

Luis Gonzalez's career almost perfectly mirrors Bautista's done so far

 

9 seasons with a .268/.341/.432 (.774) line, then he goes to Arizona and the next

3 seasons with a .324/.408/.593 (1.001) line

 

i don't even remember if he was linked with steroids, but a lot of that team was suspicious, Jay Bell most of all

And Steve Finley

[Sammy Sofa]

Or there are new drugs or combinations that evade detection.

 

Or there's all the obvious changes in his swing and approach at the plate. Unless you somehow think that is PED-enhanced, too.

[KingCubsFan]

Or there are new drugs or combinations that evade detection.

 

Or there's all the obvious changes in his swing and approach at the plate. Unless you somehow think that is PED-enhanced, too.

Why does it have to be one or the other? Remember when Sammy Sosa changed his swing in 1998?

[Sammy Sofa]

Or there are new drugs or combinations that evade detection.

 

Or there's all the obvious changes in his swing and approach at the plate. Unless you somehow think that is PED-enhanced, too.

Why does it have to be one or the other? Remember when Sammy Sosa changed his swing in 1998?

 

Remember when he turned into a gigantic monster?

 

Do we really have to take the Soul way of things and be afraid and not trust everything and everyone? It's really frustrating to see people laying out and quoting and linking to the really well done analysis that makes it perfectly clear the huge difference in Bautista's offensive approach prior to the end of 2009 and then afterwards. He started raking at the end of 2009 because he started making obvious changes with his swing and stance. He didn't suddenly balloon up or even get significantly bigger; yet of course you have people leaping to the idea of steroids. It's really disappointingly lazy.

[Jake]

There's a pretty obvious explanation for a 30 year old who never generated any power in his life suddenly hitting like Bonds.

 

change of batting stance?

 

seriously, bonds was an awesome hitter who became ridiculous after pumping his body full of juice. bautista was a mediocre player who has become terrific. steroids don't make lousy players become good; obviously there's something more than "oh look he's obviously juicing" at play here.

 

I could see a change in mechanics accounting for some increase in power.

 

Going from mid-teens in homers to mid-50's? I'm just saying it's suspicious.

 

You might be surprised to learn that many of us Pittsburgh fans were suspicious. Dejan Kovacevic of the Post Gazette has said he's not surprised to see the increase, in that the power was always there, but the mechanics were a mess. Now, granted, he never said he imagined a 50HR season, but thought he should have been in the mid 30s every year.

[imb]

If you make the all-star team or your team makes the playoffs, you will be tested. Everyone else can cheat their little hearts out.

 

I'd do the same for NCAA football/basketball. Cheat as much as you want, but if you make a BCS game or the sweet sixteen, your program gets investigated.

[Soul]

Or there are new drugs or combinations that evade detection.

 

Or there's all the obvious changes in his swing and approach at the plate. Unless you somehow think that is PED-enhanced, too.

Why does it have to be one or the other? Remember when Sammy Sosa changed his swing in 1998?

 

Remember when he turned into a gigantic monster?

 

Do we really have to take the Soul way of things and be afraid and not trust everything and everyone? It's really frustrating to see people laying out and quoting and linking to the really well done analysis that makes it perfectly clear the huge difference in Bautista's offensive approach prior to the end of 2009 and then afterwards. He started raking at the end of 2009 because he started making obvious changes with his swing and stance. He didn't suddenly balloon up or even get significantly bigger; yet of course you have people leaping to the idea of steroids. It's really disappointingly lazy.

 

Maybe it is lazy. It's been the case way too many times. And there's nothing that says a guy needs to balloon up like Bonds to get extra power from drugs. Not in the face of the ever-evolving world of PEDs.

 

Why should I trust? Why should I continue bashing my head against a brick wall for these guys when they repeatedly go out and do things like juicing up? Not going to happen. You can call it fear if you want. I think that's pretty stupid, but whatever man -- these are the kinds of posts you like to make to rile people up. It's what you do.

 

The fact that there's analysis of a swing change isn't conclusive. Not in the slightest. I read the posts on that, looked at the link. The bottom line is, a guy can do more than one thing at a time.

[Guest]

Maybe it is lazy. It's been the case way too many times. And there's nothing that says a guy needs to balloon up like Bonds to get extra power from drugs. Not in the face of the ever-evolving world of PEDs.

 

Why should I trust? Why should I continue bashing my head against a brick wall for these guys when they repeatedly go out and do things like juicing up?

 

Why should you care at all? I've never understood that there is absolutely zero problem in perception with people taking all sorts of powders and pills and supplements in order to get stronger, but when we cross into the arbitrary "steroid" classification, suddenly guys are just popping pills that make them into the Hulk. As if the guys who don't take steroids are doing nothing but calisthenics in order to get stronger or something. It's completely nonsensical.