Minor League Discussion & Boxes 4-27-11

[Little Slide Rooter]

Matt Cerda seems to be figuring things out. Hes only 20 years old, so does he project as a guy to watch for the future? Also is Pierre LaPage worth following?

[scarey]

Matt Cerda seems to be figuring things out. Hes only 20 years old, so does he project as a guy to watch for the future? Also is Pierre LaPage worth following?

 

Cerda has always been worth following. He walks a lot, shows some flashes of power, and is an infielder that hits lefty. Lots to like. The only problem is if he's not going to play 2B, he's going to have to hit for more power to stick at 3B. His height suggests he's going to have problem hitting for that much power.

 

LePage was a 13th round pick last year, so I would assume the Cubs saw a bit of upside when they took him. He's done nothing but hit and take walks since he was draft (most of the walks coming this year). His height is a limiting factor as well. If the guy can keep his .400+ OBP going, I would think he'll be a guy we'll keep an eye on.

[Guest]

Too bad Darin Downs didn't have more starts like that for us.

 

Looks like his growth plates finally kicked in.

[KingCubsFan]

Too bad Darin Downs didn't have more starts like that for us.

 

Looks like his growth plates finally kicked in.

What's the origin of this joke? And also, it actually really does suck he couldn't have been better for us. I remember being pretty excited when we drafted him. He was terrible the whole time he was with our organization, and then as soon as he left he started putting up fantastic numbers.

[craig]

....

I'm tempering my excitement since we're only one month into the season, but is this guy a top ten Cubs prospect at this point? Dare I say top 5?

 

That's far too quick for me. I'd probably sneak him into my top 15 now (admittedly he wasn't in my top 30 to start the season).

 

29 IP with 28 K and 1 BB between A+ and AA is ridiculous.

 

Not too quick for me, he's obviously a top-10 guy at this point. Good fastball, good control, great results, he's already in AA, no brainer. It's not like guys 8-9-10 are all HOF talents.

 

I had him 18 during winter, 15 after Chirinos/Guyer/Lee got removed. If he was 15 going into the season, he's easily leapfrogged at least five guys to hop into my top 10.

 

Now the Cubs may be molding yet another unsung prospect into a power arm worthy of a look. ....Since he was drafted, Whitenack, 22, has ticked his fastball from the low-90s to 94-95, and all of his pitches have good downward plane from a long-levered delivery.

 

http://matthewtrueblood.wordpress.com/2011/04/18/chicago-cubs-minor-leagues-watch-chris-archer-trey-mcnutt-robert-whitenack/

 

Baseball Prospectus blurb on Whitenack from a couple weeks ago:

 

six-foot-five righty has solid velocity and plenty of deception.

 

If he's 94-95, great control, pure anti-HR guy, plenty of deception, that sounds qualified to make our top ten. I understand that who knows how accurate the 94-95 is, I have no idea if that source knows what he's talking about. And of course 94-95 is most likely "topping"/"touching", and he's probably actually working more 89-92. But an 89-92 commanded sinker, a guy can win a lot of big-league starts with that.

Edited April 28, 2011 by craig

[Guest]

94-95, great control, pure anti-HR guy, plenty of deception, that sounds qualified to make our top ten.

If he continues something close to this level of performance at AA this year, he could easily be top 5. Looking at the guys we had in the 6-10 spots this offseason, Simpson is struggling down in A ball, Golden came in overweight and didn't even make Peoria, LeMahieu and Flaherty are what they are and even guys like Cabrera and JJackson haven't done enough to put themselves above Whitenack if he keeps up something close to his current pace.

[CubColtPacer]

From Bruce's blog today quoting Fleita on Whitenack:

 

"He's got command, with a good sinker, and he's throwing 91-94 (mph)," Oneri said today. "It looks to me that he grew two inches over the off-season and that he's filled out some. He was throwing 89-91 tops last year. Now, he's 91-94. You don't see that a whole lot."

[CubColtPacer]

And one more Fleita quote that's quite hilarious:

 

There are times when Vitters is too patient at the plate."

[Guest]

And one more Fleita quote that's quite hilarious:

 

There are times when Vitters is too patient at the plate."

Hard to trust anything Oneiri says about our prospects too much.

[soapy]

And one more Fleita quote that's quite hilarious:

 

There are times when Vitters is too patient at the plate."

 

And now I have Mt. Dew on my monitor.

[SouthSideRyan]

And one more Fleita quote that's quite hilarious:

 

There are times when Vitters is too patient at the plate."

Hard to trust anything Oneiri says about our prospects too much.

 

I haven't trusted anything he's said since I found out he was white.

[craig]

I wonder if he really meant that, or meant Jackson in that context.

 

The Hendry stuff tht Whitenack is 91-94, significantly up from last year, is pretty good info.

 

The bit about Lake getting benched for not running out a fly ball is both sad and good. He seems like such a dope. He's fallen well out of my top-10 by now.

[videographer]

aliforniaRaisin wrote:

KingCubsFan wrote:

Too bad Darin Downs didn't have more starts like that for us.

 

 

Looks like his growth plates finally kicked in.

 

What's the origin of this joke? And also, it actually really does suck he couldn't have been better for us. I remember being pretty excited when we drafted him. He was terrible the whole time he was with our organization, and then as soon as he left he started putting up fantastic numbers.

 

Darin Downs was a 5th round pick by the Cubs in 2003. He was a soft tossing lefty who was projected to add velocity when he filled out his frame. Apparently, his growth plates had yet to close and his scouting report played up that doctor's report of that medical affect, bigger + stronger = 90s FB and success. Unfortunately, Downs never added to his FB or showed much of his advertised pin-point control. He was rocked year after year and eventually released in High A. All his promise based on growth plates.

[Scotti]

From Bruce's blog today quoting Fleita on Whitenack:

 

"He's got command, with a good sinker, and he's throwing 91-94 (mph)," Oneri said today. "It looks to me that he grew two inches over the off-season and that he's filled out some. He was throwing 89-91 tops last year. Now, he's 91-94. You don't see that a whole lot."

 

Good news but guys who have their velocity pop in such a short period like that often develop physical difficulties since the surrounding structure is not conditioned to the extra velocity. The velocity difference could just be more of him using the four seam fastball more than he used to rather than a spurt.

 

As with Craig and others I have no problem putting him in my top ten. A couple more weeks of him performing at this level and he'll be in the top five. A few more and he'll be top two with a chance at number one overall. It isn't like he came out of nowhere. Ok, North Massapequa, NY is literally nowhere but he is an 8th round pick who really turned it on during the second half of his first full year. Good size, good stuff, good command and tremendous numbers.

 

I expect he'll drop off a bit (quite a bit given how goofy his numbers have been) but he's been excellent for 12 straight starts (and probably more given his promotion to Daytona from Peoria last year). Anyone know how he did at the end of his Peoria run?

[craig]

...

 

I expect he'll drop off a bit (quite a bit given how goofy his numbers have been) but he's been excellent for 12 straight starts (and probably more given his promotion to Daytona from Peoria last year). Anyone know how he did at the end of his Peoria run?

 

His ERA was under 3 over his last 6 weeks or two months at Peoria. I recall before he got promoted looking in the Minor League box things that show the last ten starts, and he'd been under 3.0 ERA during that period.

 

So while his overall Peoria numbers looked yucky, that was spring and he was quite effective for all of June, July, and August.

[Scotti]

aliforniaRaisin wrote:

KingCubsFan wrote:

Too bad Darin Downs didn't have more starts like that for us.

 

 

Looks like his growth plates finally kicked in.

 

What's the origin of this joke? And also, it actually really does suck he couldn't have been better for us. I remember being pretty excited when we drafted him. He was terrible the whole time he was with our organization, and then as soon as he left he started putting up fantastic numbers.

 

Darin Downs was a 5th round pick by the Cubs in 2003. He was a soft tossing lefty who was projected to add velocity when he filled out his frame. Apparently, his growth plates had yet to close and his scouting report played up that doctor's report of that medical affect, bigger + stronger = 90s FB and success. Unfortunately, Downs never added to his FB or showed much of his advertised pin-point control. He was rocked year after year and eventually released in High A. All his promise based on growth plates.

 

Actually Downs was never released--he was traded.

 

FWIW, growth plates can continue to grow until 25. In 2009, at 24, Downs was 12-6, 2.23 with a 1.8 BB/9. In 2010, at 25, he was 12-4, 2.95.

 

His 2009 season ended when a batted ball ricocheted into the dugout for a ground rule double:

 

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/for-tampa-bay-rays-prospect-darin-downs-climb-back-to-the-mound-is-steep/1037196

 

http://www.aolnews.com/2010/04/10/darin-downs-back-on-mound-after-surviving-line-drive-to-head/

[Scotti]

...

 

I expect he'll drop off a bit (quite a bit given how goofy his numbers have been) but he's been excellent for 12 straight starts (and probably more given his promotion to Daytona from Peoria last year). Anyone know how he did at the end of his Peoria run?

 

His ERA was under 3 over his last 6 weeks or two months at Peoria. I recall before he got promoted looking in the Minor League box things that show the last ten starts, and he'd been under 3.0 ERA during that period.

 

So while his overall Peoria numbers looked yucky, that was spring and he was quite effective for all of June, July, and August.

 

Thanks, Craig. Has Nathan said anything about what he looked like at Peoria?

[Outshined_One]

I know he's one of the best hitters in the Midwest League, but it's seriously time for Greg Rohan to get promoted if the Cubs have any intention of finding out if he's a worthwhile prospect.

[CubColtPacer]

I know he's one of the best hitters in the Midwest League, but it's seriously time for Greg Rohan to get promoted if the Cubs have any intention of finding out if he's a worthwhile prospect.

 

I doubt they think he's much of anything. 21st round college player who didn't play well in Boise, didn't show all that much power in his first Peoria stint, and didn't do anything when he was promoted to Daytona. Now he's just a few days from being 25 years old. Sure, they could promote him again and see how he does but I doubt there's any rush.