tyler colvin's struggles

[TruffleShuffle]

Quick, who has a higher MLB IsoD, Colvin or Aramis?

 

i understand why, as a cubs fan, you'd like to pretend tyler colvin's minor league track record didn't exist, i just don't know why you'd like to make such an assumption when it comes to actually evaluating the player.

 

Plus it's a lot easier to swallow a relatively low walk rate if the guy puts the ball in play a lot. If castro or ichiro are gonna put up an IsoD of 0.5, they're still getting on base at least 35% of the time. If Colvin does it, it's while he's striking out 120 times and his OBP is hair over .300. Which really is not going to cut it for a corner OF.

[Guest]

Quick, who has a higher MLB IsoD, Colvin or Aramis?

 

i understand why, as a cubs fan, you'd like to pretend tyler colvin's minor league track record didn't exist, i just don't know why you'd like to make such an assumption when it comes to actually evaluating the player.

 

It was a quip intended to provoke thought, not to act as an all-encompassing evaluation. The point is that we have upwards of 500 MLB PA's on Colvin to look at, and as a statistically significant and most recent sample, we can't just cast it aside because we'd prefer to look at his MiLB track record(which had improving IsoDs at higher levels). This is especially relevant considering the physical change that Colvin went through last year that could serve as a new baseline for his performance. Does it mean that Colvin's a guaranteed .850 OPS guy forever and ever amen? Of course not. But in the same way, looking at 40 PA's as some sort of red flag that invalidates all that he's done in the last year+ is a similarly silly way to look at it.

[Little Slide Rooter]

As far as both Tyler Colvin and Blake DeWitt go, I understand that they have both gotten off to very rough starts, and that they share positions with players who have gotten off to very good ones. This has led to very little playing time for both players. This being said, they are both young players with potential, especially Colvin who has been dubbed as the RF of the future. If Quade is going to just stash these 2 at the end of the bench, they need to be sent to Iowa where they can play everyday, and we can just call up a few of our AAAAers to rot away at the end of the bench. Its not like LaHair, Montanez, Snyder, Scales, Smith, or whoever else cant do what Colvin and DeWitt have done so far, which is nothing. The difference is, these guys really have no future with the Cubs as opposed to Colvin and DeWitt who very well might.

[Sammy Sofa]

If either of them are the future of anything for the Cubs then the Cubs are fucked.

[Little Slide Rooter]

If either of them are the future of anything for the Cubs then the Cubs are [expletive].

 

Theres a difference between being the future of a team and having a future with the team. Hendry has said that Colvin is his RF of the future. If that doesnt pan out, next year they could easily go Sori-Jackson-Byrd across the OF though, but Byrds gone after 2012.

[Sammy Sofa]

Hopefully this encourages him not to think of Colvin as THE RF of the future and instead as "OK, MAYBE this guy is the RF of the future." It's barely been a month; he'll get plenty of chances to get out there spelling Fukudome and Soriano.

[rynefan]

He's definitely had some seriously ugly at-bats lately, but you can't help but have that glimmer of hope he'll knock one out every time he's up.

[Post Count Padder]

He's off to a slow start. So are a lot of other batters. I'd give him time, though I never expected him to be a superstar, let alone this season.

[Little Slide Rooter]

He's off to a slow start. So are a lot of other batters. I'd give him time, though I never expected him to be a superstar, let alone this season.

 

Id give him time too, but the way hes playing, hes not going to get time, playing time at least which is why they should give him some time in Iowa and call up someone from there. All we really need at this point is a 5th outfielder.

[dew1679666265]

He's off to a slow start. So are a lot of other batters. I'd give him time, though I never expected him to be a superstar, let alone this season.

 

Id give him time too, but the way hes playing, hes not going to get time, playing time at least which is why they should give him some time in Iowa and call up someone from there. All we really need at this point is a 5th outfielder.

 

Our starting OFs are too streaky to send Colvin down, I think. With Soriano and Kosuke making up 2/3 of our outfield, almost any at-bat could begin an extended slump. It's at least more convenient to have Colvin ready on the bench as opposed to having to call him up and send another player down.

 

He may not be getting a ton of playing time now, but with the streaky outfielders we have he'll get his ABs in time, we're just in a period now where the streaks have been hot for both of them.

[jersey cubs fan]

He's off to a slow start. So are a lot of other batters. I'd give him time, though I never expected him to be a superstar, let alone this season.

 

Id give him time too, but the way hes playing, hes not going to get time, playing time at least which is why they should give him some time in Iowa and call up someone from there. All we really need at this point is a 5th outfielder.

 

Our starting OFs are too streaky to send Colvin down, I think. With Soriano and Kosuke making up 2/3 of our outfield, almost any at-bat could begin an extended slump. It's at least more convenient to have Colvin ready on the bench as opposed to having to call him up and send another player down.

 

He may not be getting a ton of playing time now, but with the streaky outfielders we have he'll get his ABs in time, we're just in a period now where the streaks have been hot for both of them.

 

I'm not sure the convenience of being able to have him around is all that great of an argument for keeping him here. It's not like one game can tell you if a guy is going into a slump. And sitting around waiting for a slump won't help much. He'd be better prepared to fill-in for a slumping player with more regular at bats. At the same time, we aren't talking about a guy who accomplished all he could in AAA or anything.

[dew1679666265]

I'm not sure the convenience of being able to have him around is all that great of an argument for keeping him here. It's not like one game can tell you if a guy is going into a slump. And sitting around waiting for a slump won't help much. He'd be better prepared to fill-in for a slumping player with more regular at bats. At the same time, we aren't talking about a guy who accomplished all he could in AAA or anything.

 

With Colvin around and handy, though, it'd be much easier to be less patient with a known streaky hitter like Soriano or Kosuke. Colvin's better offensively than probably any option we'd want to bring up as a 4th OF, and it's a much better idea to give him a start or two over Soriano or Kosuke after 2-3 poor games than it would be to give Fernando Perez those starts.

 

There are really few positives to sending him down, as well. He'd get regular at-bats, but at his age and with his limited ceiling I don't know that we'll see much more development out of him. Regular AAA at-bats would keep him less rusty, but we'd also lose his bat in the spot starts in LF, RF and first that he'd get by being here. I don't think it'd be that big a deal if we sent him down, but he's in the role now that he'll probably inhabit most of his career so we might as well let him fill that role. If he were a higher ceiling guy who I saw as a potential starting corner OF in the future, I'd be all for sending him down to get more ABs. But his ceiling is probably as a 4th OF and he's currently a 4th OF.

[italianocubsfan7]

Does anyone ever feel like Quade is ruining Colvin. I have a friend who thinks this and goes insane for Colvin. We argue all the time about why and why not he doesn't get as many at-bats anymore. I have to tell him, well, it's because Colvin didn't do all that well in April when he actually started like two or three times per week, and he hasn't gotten a hit all of May. At the same time, though, Colvin hasn't started in a WHILE. Shouldn't Quade be starting him at least once a week? Would it be better if he just played basically everyday in Des Moines?

 

What are the stats/splits on Colvin this year (the deeper stats that you guys always throw out)? I kind of want to shut up this friend of mine.

[Schwarber Fan]

Does anyone ever feel like Quade is ruining Colvin. I have a friend who thinks this and goes insane for Colvin. We argue all the time about why and why not he doesn't get as many at-bats anymore. I have to tell him, well, it's because Colvin didn't do all that well in April when he actually started like two or three times per week, and he hasn't gotten a hit all of May. At the same time, though, Colvin hasn't started in a WHILE. Shouldn't Quade be starting him at least once a week? Would it be better if he just played basically everyday in Des Moines?

 

What are the stats/splits on Colvin this year (the deeper stats that you guys always throw out)? I kind of want to shut up this friend of mine.

 

Byrd has a 15 game hitting streak, Soriano is about the only power threat in the lineup at this point, and Fukudome is hitting .350+

[Backtobanks]

Does anyone ever feel like Quade is ruining Colvin. I have a friend who thinks this and goes insane for Colvin. We argue all the time about why and why not he doesn't get as many at-bats anymore. I have to tell him, well, it's because Colvin didn't do all that well in April when he actually started like two or three times per week, and he hasn't gotten a hit all of May. At the same time, though, Colvin hasn't started in a WHILE. Shouldn't Quade be starting him at least once a week? Would it be better if he just played basically everyday in Des Moines?

 

What are the stats/splits on Colvin this year (the deeper stats that you guys always throw out)? I kind of want to shut up this friend of mine.

 

Byrd has a 15 game hitting streak, Soriano is about the only power threat in the lineup at this point, and Fukudome is hitting .350+

 

And DeWitt and Baker are getting in practice in the OF. It looks like Colvin and Quade have lost confidence in his ability.

[dew1679666265]

Does anyone ever feel like Quade is ruining Colvin. I have a friend who thinks this and goes insane for Colvin. We argue all the time about why and why not he doesn't get as many at-bats anymore. I have to tell him, well, it's because Colvin didn't do all that well in April when he actually started like two or three times per week, and he hasn't gotten a hit all of May. At the same time, though, Colvin hasn't started in a WHILE. Shouldn't Quade be starting him at least once a week? Would it be better if he just played basically everyday in Des Moines?

 

What are the stats/splits on Colvin this year (the deeper stats that you guys always throw out)? I kind of want to shut up this friend of mine.

 

I'll preface this post by saying I think Colvin is probably a lot better than he's shown this season. Not as good as the player we saw last year, but better than he's been this year.

 

He's currently got a line of .113/.191/.258. The positive thing is, a .78 IsoD (isolated discipline, the difference between his average and OBP) and a .145 IsoP (isolated power, the difference between his average and slugging) aren't terrible numbers. However, Colvin isn't just hitting into bad luck to this point. His BABIP is .161, and while you'd think that was due to go up, he's simply not hitting line drives right now either (11.1 LD%). His LD% has gone up recently, but only slightly. Before he gets at all productive again, Colvin's going to have to start hitting the ball harder. And as long as the three starting OFs are highly productive, you can't throw an offensive black hole out there.

 

As for sending Colvin down, I just don't know that it would help much. He might get a little more confidence hitting AAA pitching, but his ceiling is probably as a 4th OF and that's his current role.

[Tracer Bullet]

Does anyone ever feel like Quade is ruining Colvin. I have a friend who thinks this and goes insane for Colvin. We argue all the time about why and why not he doesn't get as many at-bats anymore. I have to tell him, well, it's because Colvin didn't do all that well in April when he actually started like two or three times per week, and he hasn't gotten a hit all of May. At the same time, though, Colvin hasn't started in a WHILE. Shouldn't Quade be starting him at least once a week? Would it be better if he just played basically everyday in Des Moines?

 

What are the stats/splits on Colvin this year (the deeper stats that you guys always throw out)? I kind of want to shut up this friend of mine.

 

I'll preface this post by saying I think Colvin is probably a lot better than he's shown this season. Not as good as the player we saw last year, but better than he's been this year.

 

He's currently got a line of .113/.191/.258. The positive thing is, a .78 IsoD (isolated discipline, the difference between his average and OBP) and a .145 IsoP (isolated power, the difference between his average and slugging) aren't terrible numbers. However, Colvin isn't just hitting into bad luck to this point. His BABIP is .161, and while you'd think that was due to go up, he's simply not hitting line drives right now either (11.1 LD%). His LD% has gone up recently, but only slightly. Before he gets at all productive again, Colvin's going to have to start hitting the ball harder. And as long as the three starting OFs are highly productive, you can't throw an offensive black hole out there.

 

As for sending Colvin down, I just don't know that it would help much. He might get a little more confidence hitting AAA pitching, but his ceiling is probably as a 4th OF and that's his current role.

 

i don't necessarily disagree with any of your points. However, with his current inability to do much of anything and Quade's complete lack of confidence in him, more ABs at the AAA level might be what he needs. Otherwise, he's not a 4th OF, he's a waste of a roster spot. I haven't checked and don't know that there's any better options available. But if getting more confidence hitting AAA pitching actually allows him to be a decent 4th OF at the ML level, then that's an option the Cubs should strongly consider.

[dew1679666265]

i don't necessarily disagree with any of your points. However, with his current inability to do much of anything and Quade's complete lack of confidence in him, more ABs at the AAA level might be what he needs. Otherwise, he's not a 4th OF, he's a waste of a roster spot. I haven't checked and don't know that there's any better options available. But if getting more confidence hitting AAA pitching actually allows him to be a decent 4th OF at the ML level, then that's an option the Cubs should strongly consider.

 

I can see that. I wouldn't have a problem with him going to AAA, I just don't know how much good it would do. If it's purely a confidence issue it might help, but if it's mechanical or something similar he might do better working with Jaramillo on the side.

[Backtobanks]

I was happy with him last year, but I always wondered if he was going to keep it going once the pitchers adjusted to him. He really needs to be more consistent if he has any hope of even being a 4th OF. AAA might help regain some trade value if he's not going to be part of the Cubs' future.

[dew1679666265]

I was happy with him last year, but I always wondered if he was going to keep it going once the pitchers adjusted to him. He really needs to be more consistent if he has any hope of even being a 4th OF. AAA might help regain some trade value if he's not going to be part of the Cubs' future.

 

The bulk of his production last year was unsustainable, but I don't think he'll continue to be anywhere near as bad as he's been so far this year. The problem with Colvin is figuring out where in the middle he'll fall production-wise. He's always been a difficult player to read (high OBP/low SLG one year in the minors, high SLG/low OBP the next), and I don't think we have enough information to evaluate him to this point.

 

A trip back to AAA might help.

[italianocubsfan7]

Great stats, dew, thanks.

 

When I give these stats, my friend comes back and says that Quade and Cubs management has been against Colvin from Day 1 of spring training this season. That he never gave him a chance. If I remember correctly, weren't Colvin and Fukudome battling for the job in spring and then he got opportunities in the regular season? After call, Colvin is just 6-for-42 in starts this season (I looked that up). Is my friend just looking too much into it? I thought Colvin did get his opportunities?

[TruffleShuffle]

I was happy with him last year, but I always wondered if he was going to keep it going once the pitchers adjusted to him. He really needs to be more consistent if he has any hope of even being a 4th OF. AAA might help regain some trade value if he's not going to be part of the Cubs' future.

 

The bulk of his production last year was unsustainable, but I don't think he'll continue to be anywhere near as bad as he's been so far this year. The problem with Colvin is figuring out where in the middle he'll fall production-wise. He's always been a difficult player to read (high OBP/low SLG one year in the minors, high SLG/low OBP the next), and I don't think we have enough information to evaluate him to this point.

 

A trip back to AAA might help.

 

what year was he a high OBP/low SLG player in the minors? his best OBP was .336 at any stop, and that was because he hit over .300 (probably an unusually high BABIP). to me it looks like he was very consistent in the minors - decent power, very few walks, with overall production fluctuating based on BABIP.

[dew1679666265]

what year was he a high OBP/low SLG player in the minors? his best OBP was .336 at any stop, and that was because he hit over .300 (probably an unusually high BABIP). to me it looks like he was very consistent in the minors - decent power, very few walks, with overall production fluctuating based on BABIP.

 

That's a poor memory on my part I guess. I remembered his OBP and power numbers fluctuating, but didn't go back to check myself. Not sure what I was thinking of.

[dew1679666265]

Great stats, dew, thanks.

 

When I give these stats, my friend comes back and says that Quade and Cubs management has been against Colvin from Day 1 of spring training this season. That he never gave him a chance. If I remember correctly, weren't Colvin and Fukudome battling for the job in spring and then he got opportunities in the regular season? After call, Colvin is just 6-for-42 in starts this season (I looked that up). Is my friend just looking too much into it? I thought Colvin did get his opportunities?

 

Colvin started 10 of the first 12 games this season and went 5-41 in those games. He closed out April with just 2 starts in 9 games. If Quade were against Colvin from day one, I don't think he'd have started that much early on. In fact, Quade wanted him to get at bats so badly that he played him out of position (first base) while Pena was hurt.

 

Quade's been a pretty vocal supporter of Colvin since he took over the job and backed it up through the first 12 games this year. Colvin's .121 BA over those 12 games - and the very good play by the other OFs at the same time - had much more to do with his current spot on the bench.

[Keener98]

http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/news/story?id=6553288

 

Cubs considering sending Colvin down.

 

With the Cubs lacking speed off the bench, one possible option to replace Colvin on the roster is outfielder Tony Campana, who is batting .339 with two triples and seven steals for the Iowa Cubs. Campana, 24, has been with the Cubs organization since 2008 when he was drafted in the 13th round of the First-Year Player Draft.