2011 PECOTA for the Cubs is out.

[Northside Blues]

I am bored at work. So I am making lists.

 

Top 10 by TAv.

 

1. .344 Albert Pujols

2. .320 Miguel Cabrera

3. .317 Joey Votto

4. .316 Prince Fielder

5. .314 Matt Holliday

6. .311 Ryan Braun

7. .310 Hanley Ramirez

8. .308 Kevin Youkilis

9. .306 Alex Rodriguez

10. .306 Joe Mauer

16. .302 Kila Ka'aihue

23. .299 Lance Berkman

26. .297 Dan Johnson

37. .292 Geovany Soto (Cubs Leader)

44. .290 Brandon Belt

 

Top 10 ERA by SP

 

1. 2.42 Stephen Strasburg

2. 2.64 Felix Hernandez

3. 2.74 Tim Lincecum

4. 3.02 Mat Latos

5. 3.05 Roy Halladay

6. 3.09 Johan Santana

7. 3.09 Erik Bedard

8. 3.12 Jered Weaver

9. 3.14 Adam Wainwright

10. 3.17 Cliff Lee

70. 4.15 Matt Garza (Cubs Leader)

 

Top 25 WARP.

1. 7.7 Albert Pujols

2. 6.8 Felix Hernandez

3. 6.8 Roy Halladay

4. 6.6 CC Sabathia

5. 5.9 Tim Lincecum

6. 5.8 Cliff Lee

7. 5.7 Johan Santana

8. 5.6 Dan Haren

9. 5.5 Justin Verlander

10. 5.3 Matt Cain

11. 5.3 Roy Oswalt

12. 5.2 Jered Weaver

13. 5.1 Stephen Strasburg

14. 5.0 Jake Peavy

15. 4.9 Adam Wainwright

16. 4.9 Ryan Braun

17. 4.8 Cole Hamels

18. 4.8 Hanley Ramirez

19. 4.7 Jon Lester

20. 4.7 Ubaldo Jimenez

21. 4.7 Troy Tulowitzki

22. 4.6 Ted Lilly

23. 4.6 Zack Greinke

24. 4.6 Matt Holliday

25. 4.6 Alex Rodriguez

50. 3.8 Matt Garza (Cubs Leader)

 

 

All pitchers, eh?

 

Also, Stephen Strasburg's #1 comp is Mark Prior. You can't make this stuff up.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think Dan Johnson's my favorite

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I think Dan Johnson's my favorite

Yeah, what the [expletive]?

[Radar3454]

Pecota's pitching projects always are way off are they not? I have yahoo fantasy baseball projections if anyone wants I can include them in this thread.

 

I'd like to see them - Thanks!

[Cubs Fan Dan]

Per yahoo fantasy (most likely jus projections based on 3 year averages but its february, any baseball is fun talk project!)

 

Marlon Byrd - .286/.334/.434/.768 -14hr 61 rbi

Starlin Castro - .288/.340/.405/.745 - 6hr 57rbi 16SB

Tyler Colvin - .259/.321/.520/.841 - 23hr 64 rbi

Blake DeWitt - .267/.333/.383/.716 - 6hr 47 rbi

Kosuke Fukudome - .270/.360/.406/.766 - 11hr 48rbi

Brett Jackson - .250/.333/.450./.783 - 1hr 3 rbi (20 AB)

Carlos Pena - .240/.354/.481/.835 - 31hr 89rbi

Aramis Ramirez - .281/.340/.507/.847 - 27hr 87rbi

Alfonso Soriano - .258/.325/.468/.793 - 22hr 70rbi

Geovany Soto - .276/.388/.460/.848 - 17hr 64rbi

 

Andrew Cashner - 3-4 4.30 ERA 67IP/61K 1.43WHIP

Ryan Dempster - 14-11 3.78 ERA 207ip/177k 1.29WHIP

Matt Garza - 15-11 3.86 ERA 205ip/167K 1.25(projections based on Garza being in Tampa)

Randy Wells - 11-12 4.38 ERA 187ip/132k 1.39 whip

Carlos Zambrano - 12-8 3.46 ERA 169ip/129k 1.32 WHIP

Carlos Silva - 9-8 4.37 ERA 134ip/88k 1.35ip

[Splendid Splinter]

Per yahoo fantasy (most likely jus projections based on 3 year averages but its february, any baseball is fun talk project!)

Tyler Colvin - .259/.321/.520/.841 - 23hr 64 rbi

 

 

What the heck? That's like Adam Dunn in terms of IsoP. I know he had a .500 SLG with his .254 AVG last year, but I can't see him improving that over a whole season... Esp. when pitchers know what to do with him this year. With only 23 HRs, he must been getting like 50 doubles or like 30 doubles and 10 triples along with that in order to get that SLG since Dunn hits 38+ HRs like every year.... Last year Adam Dunn had 36 doubles, 2 triples, 38 HRs for a .539 SLG with a .260 AVG. Unless Colvin gonna have the same amount of ABs as last year, I don't see him hitting a .520 SLG. All of the sudden he's gonna be a XBH machine???

[Careless]

This would be terrible news if PECOTA was ever right

South siders say hi

[Splendid Splinter]

Another 2011 projections for the Cubs...

 

From rotochamp.com... http://www.rotochamp.com/players/TeamPage.aspx?Team=CHC

 

Lineup Player POS Team AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG

1 Starlin Castro SS CHC 605 90 4 55 13 0.294 0.344 0.405

2 Kosuke Fukudome OF CHC 407 72 12 48 8 0.266 0.378 0.430

3 Marlon Byrd OF CHC 541 77 14 80 6 0.293 0.348 0.445

4 Aramis Ramirez 3B CHC 498 76 26 84 1 0.273 0.337 0.484

5 Carlos Pena 1B CHC 471 84 32 75 4 0.236 0.364 0.486

6 Alfonso Soriano OF CHC 501 66 24 74 7 0.257 0.321 0.481

7 Geovany Soto C CHC 444 71 21 66 0 0.275 0.382 0.482

8 Blake DeWitt 2B CHC 522 63 7 57 3 0.257 0.334 0.368

 

 

Projected Rotation

Starter Player POS Team IP W L ERA WHIP K

1 Ryan Dempster SP CHC 202 12 10 3.58 1.31 188

2 Matt Garza SP CHC 204 11 11 4.02 1.26 160

3 Carlos Zambrano SP CHC 184 10 9 3.94 1.41 160

4 Randy Wells SP CHC 196 11 10 3.84 1.37 139

5 Carlos Silva SP CHC 115 5 6 4.63 1.36 71

 

 

Top Relievers

Player POS Team IP W L Saves ERA WHIP K

Carlos Marmol RP CHC 70 3 3 35 2.42 1.23 111

Kerry Wood RP CHC 46 2 2 5 3.77 1.35 51

Sean Marshall RP CHC 70 3 3 1 2.91 1.23 73

Andrew Cashner RP CHC 54 2 2 0 4.43 1.57 50

Esmailin Caridad RP CHC 4 0 0 0 5.59 1.25 4

Thomas Diamond RP CHC 29 1 1 0 4.46 1.76 36

 

 

Other Players

Player POS Team AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG

Tyler Colvin OF CHC 365 49 20 56 4 0.257 0.321 0.499

Jeff Baker 3B CHC 188 22 4 23 1 0.259 0.319 0.410

[javy knows my name]

If Colvin hits 23 HR this year, I'll run onto the field naked

[Cubs Fan Dan]

If Colvin hits 23 HR this year, I'll run onto the field naked

 

This does not need to branch in to a Colvin conversation but Colvin's power seemed pretty real, do you just think he cannot make enough contact? Just curious because If he is given 450+ AB's i see 25 homers as something he can reach.

[javy knows my name]

If Colvin hits 23 HR this year, I'll run onto the field naked

 

This does not need to branch in to a Colvin conversation but Colvin's power seemed pretty real, do you just think he cannot make enough contact? Just curious because If he is given 450+ AB's i see 25 homers as something he can reach.

 

Well, I'm thinking (hoping) he doesn't get ample playing time to do it. And yes, contact is a definite concern, and as someone said earlier, I think pitchers figure out the holes in his swing better this year.

 

Now, if he develops some plate discipline, all bets are off. Except for the one about me running on the field naked. That's still on.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

If Colvin hits 23 HR this year, I'll run onto the field naked

While I would like to see Colvin be a 25+ HR guy, I would hate to see your wiener so I don't know which way to go on this one.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

Wait will you run on the field immediately? Because if so I will just immediately change the channel when the ball leaves the yard.

[dew1679666265]

This does not need to branch in to a Colvin conversation but Colvin's power seemed pretty real, do you just think he cannot make enough contact? Just curious because If he is given 450+ AB's i see 25 homers as something he can reach.

 

Outside of not expecting him to get enough PAs to reach 23-25 HR (if Kosuke stays), there's also the concern over his HR/FB ratio.

 

His HR/FB ratio was 19.4% last year, 14th best in the majors among all hitters. His ratio was comparable to guys like Konerko, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Hamilton, Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn. He has shown solid power at times in the minors, but the thought is that the ratio won't be sustainable at that level. Even with that ratio, he still only hit 20 HR in 395 PAs last year.

[Guest]

On behalf of the Cubs 2011 postseason hopes, I hope you're streaking the field in June.

[imb]

If Colvin hits 23 HR this year, I'll run onto the field naked

While I would like to see Colvin be a 25+ HR guy, I would hate to see your wiener so I don't know which way to go on this one.

 

It's really not too bad

 

edit: i heard

[javy knows my name]

If Colvin hits 23 HR this year, I'll run onto the field naked

While I would like to see Colvin be a 25+ HR guy, I would hate to see your wiener so I don't know which way to go on this one.

 

It's really not too bad

 

edit: i heard

 

That SSR can not keep a secret

[BigSlick]

Zambrano so consistently outpitches his projections that I think its worth looking more closely at him and wondering what the heck is up with him. I don't know enough about pitchfx and all that stuff to understand why this is.

[Northside Blues]

Pecota has the Cubs at 80-82, including that terrible pitching staff. Solid starting pitching should get us another 5-6 wins.

Chicago Cubs: 80-82 projected 2011 record

 

Why They Might Win: The Cubs have two bright young stars in shortstop Starlin Castro and catcher Geovany Soto. After a textbook sophomore slump in 2009, Soto bounced back in 2010. The 21-year-old Castro will look to avoid a slump of his own after a strong rookie season. With bounceback years from Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, and the newly arrived Matt Garza, the Cubs certainly have the pieces to challenge.

 

Why They Might Not Win: Aramis Ramirez will be 33 in 2011 and looked absolutely terrible last year before hitting the disabled list. Though he was eventually able to pull his numbers above the Mendoza line, his age and recent injury history are cause for concern.

 

Player Who Could Surprise: Playing first base for Tampa Bay last year, Carlos Pena finished the season with a .196 batting average, but slugged 28 home runs and knocked in 84 runs. His projections for 2011 are much more optimistic, with PECOTA projecting a .230 batting average and .355 on-base percentage with 31 home runs.

 

Player Who Could Disappoint: Matt Garza comes to Chicago from the Rays at the expense of two of the Cubs' top prospects. If PECOTA's projections for Garza turn out to be true—a 4.15 ERA with 154 strikeouts and 23 home runs allowed—Cubs fans won't be too happy with the price they paid.

 

[Deder]

PECOTA still ranks favorably with all other projection systems for the stats that actually matter so no reason to think there is anything wrong with these projections. You just have to judge them compared to other PECOTA projections and realize they tend to regress things a bit more than many systems. 80 wins sounds about right to be honest, the Cubs look like a .500 team on paper to me. The Brewers are probably the best team on paper now that Wainwright is injured but they have a brutal interleague schedule that is going to hurt any chance they have of breaking 85 wins and I just can't trust the Reds yet so it only takes a couple guys overproducing or good health overall for the Cubs to be right in the thick of things.

 

 

Zambrano so consistently outpitches his projections that I think its worth looking more closely at him and wondering what the heck is up with him. I don't know enough about pitchfx and all that stuff to understand why this is.

 

I think it has something to do with how he is a GB pitcher yet keeps his BABIP and HR/FB low. That isn't a very common ability. For his career Zambrano has an xFIP of 4.13, FIP of 3.93 and ERA of 3.50. It is really hard to find many guys like that who don't pitch in a pitchers park and have the sample size that Zambrano does. Zambrano is just one of those guys who 'breaks the system'. To be fair though his season last year wasn't really any better than the previous four years so the expectations should probably be a high 3 ERA and not a low one.

[woodchip2153]

Didn't really think this was worthy of it's own thread so I'm adding it here. Fangraphs had their Cubs Preview today.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/team-preview-chicago-cubs/

 

nothing earth shattering.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Didn't really think this was worthy of it's own thread so I'm adding it here. Fangraphs had their Cubs Preview today.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/team-preview-chicago-cubs/

 

nothing earth shattering.

Nice little blurb on Ramirez though:

He went from hitting like Troy Tulowitzki to hitting like Troy McClure last year.

[Rob]

The part of that I found interesting was Dan Szymborski's remark down in the comments section.

 

"For what it’s worth, I have ZiPS giving the Cubs 83 wins (81 before the Garza) trade), tied for third with the post-Wainwright Cards and behind the 85-86 win total of the Reds and Brewers."

[otis89]

The part of that I found interesting was Dan Szymborski's remark down in the comments section.

 

"For what it’s worth, I have ZiPS giving the Cubs 83 wins (81 before the Garza) trade), tied for third with the post-Wainwright Cards and behind the 85-86 win total of the Reds and Brewers."

 

If 86 wins is all it's going to take to win the Central, I see no reason why the Cubs can't win it. I'm not expecting them to win, but I don't think it's impossible either.

[Deder]

Well 86 wins is all the talent needed to be the favorites. The reality is some team will play 4 or 5 games over their talent level and if that happens to be an 86 win talent team that is a 90+ win reality. Most likely someone will end up in the 88-92 range for wins but it will be because of their record in close games or some goofy guy breaking out in a big way or just getting lucky with run distribution etc.