Pujols signs with Angels pg 151

[Sammy Sofa]

1. He's better than Jackson, who is being assumed as good because he's a good prospect.

 

2. He's thrown up 20 WAR before 27. Outside of 2009 he's been between a 4-5 WAR player. We'd hoping Jackson gets there.

 

3. His power has been coming back since the shoulder injury, and he hit 23 with Tropicana as his home park in the 2011 run environment last year. His OPS on the road last year was almost .200 higher (a sweet .841).

 

4. He's one of the best defensive CFers in the league. He's also not a bad basestealer, and his baserunning in general is strong too.

 

I wasn't trying to argue that BJax is/will be as good as Upton, just that I'm not sure the difference between the upside of the two players is great enough to give up all the cheap talent you listed and have to add the payroll. I really like Upton and would be all for targeting him, I'm just concerned that adding him, Pujols, and Wilson all together may be adding too much payroll and giving up too much cheap talent.

 

I guess it's less of a criticism of your trade proposal and more a hesitation to give up that much cheap talent when we're adding two monster contracts at the same time, if that makes any sense.

 

It does, and I agree.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I wasn't trying to argue that BJax is/will be as good as Upton, just that I'm not sure the difference between the upside of the two players is great enough to give up all the cheap talent you listed and have to add the payroll. I really like Upton and would be all for targeting him, I'm just concerned that adding him, Pujols, and Wilson all together may be adding too much payroll and giving up too much cheap talent.

 

I guess it's less of a criticism of your trade proposal and more a hesitation to give up that much cheap talent when we're adding two monster contracts at the same time, if that makes any sense.

 

I'm not so worried about money. I think that's an overstated issue now, and I think under Ricketts we'll see this team have some relatively high payrolls (even compared to their relatively high payrolls before). I also think that Upton from 27-32 will be a significantly better player than Jackson from 22-28. I like Jackson, but I think his upside is basically what Upton has been with a little less power, a little less speed, and a little less defense. I mean we are talking about a guy (Jackson) who struck out 64 times in 215 PAs in the PCL (185 ABs), so it's not as if there isn't room open for him to actually just bust. Upton's tools are just all around better, and he's already done it as a MLer.

 

I see every single one of those guys traded as replaceable pieces too, even Jackson (who has Szczur behind him). Too file into Dolis' place there's still Carpenter, Cabrera, Zych, Kurcz...Rhee will give way to guys like Wells, Reed, and Maples...Barney will be replaced by guys like LeMahieu (who is basically a younger, bigger, more projectable Barney anyway the way the Cubs are using Barney as a non-SS), Flaherty, Watkins, Cerda, and whoever else exists as MIF in the system.

 

I also just don't see BJ Upton as someone who will break the bank, and I think whoever picks him up is getting a big game player in a key position. In addition to adding two big contracts I have the Cubs getting rid of the Z contract as well as saving money at 3B with that whole Dominguez thing anyway. I'm also a believer in them getting rid of the Soriano contract this offseason...I just have no clue how it's going to be done so I didn't touch it. The way Ricketts has attacked problems I just don't believe money is going to hold the Cubs back under him. I think he knows the best thing he could do early on for his product is spend money on it, because he'll make it back and then some if/when the franchise becomes the machine he wants it to become.

[dew1679666265]

I'm not so worried about money. I think that's an overstated issue now, and I think under Ricketts we'll see this team have some relatively high payrolls (even compared to their relatively high payrolls before). I also think that Upton from 27-32 will be a significantly better player than Jackson from 22-28. I like Jackson, but I think his upside is basically what Upton has been with a little less power, a little less speed, and a little less defense. I mean we are talking about a guy (Jackson) who struck out 64 times in 215 PAs in the PCL (185 ABs), so it's not as if there isn't room open for him to actually just bust. Upton's tools are just all around better, and he's already done it as a MLer.

 

I see every single one of those guys traded as replaceable pieces too, even Jackson (who has Szczur behind him). Too file into Dolis' place there's still Carpenter, Cabrera, Zych, Kurcz...Rhee will give way to guys like Wells, Reed, and Maples...Barney will be replaced by guys like LeMahieu (who is basically a younger, bigger, more projectable Barney anyway the way the Cubs are using Barney as a non-SS), Flaherty, Watkins, Cerda, and whoever else exists as MIF in the system.

 

I also just don't see BJ Upton as someone who will break the bank, and I think whoever picks him up is getting a big game player in a key position. In addition to adding two big contracts I have the Cubs getting rid of the Z contract as well as saving money at 3B with that whole Dominguez thing anyway. I'm also a believer in them getting rid of the Soriano contract this offseason...I just have no clue how it's going to be done so I didn't touch it. The way Ricketts has attacked problems I just don't believe money is going to hold the Cubs back under him. I think he knows the best thing he could do early on for his product is spend money on it, because he'll make it back and then some if/when the franchise becomes the machine he wants it to become.

 

What do we do in RF in 2013 after we're paying big money to Soriano, Pujols, Wilson, Upton and Garza? Szczur may be ready by then, but if he's not we don't have much in the way of OF prospects who are both good and ready. We probably couldn't go get a Kemp or somebody and if Szczur isn't ready we wouldn't have access to cheap RF production.

 

I guess my question is this: Is a CF/RF duo in 2013 of Upton/? better than BJax/Kemp? That ? could be anywhere from Szczur to a cheap scrap-heap platoon. Unless Ricketts goes crazy with payroll, which would be fine with me.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

What do we do in RF in 2013 after we're paying big money to Soriano, Pujols, Wilson, Upton and Garza? Szczur may be ready by then, but if he's not we don't have much in the way of OF prospects who are both good and ready. We probably couldn't go get a Kemp or somebody and if Szczur isn't ready we wouldn't have access to cheap RF production.

 

I guess my question is this: Is a CF/RF duo in 2013 of Upton/? better than BJax/Kemp? That ? could be anywhere from Szczur to a cheap scrap-heap platoon. Unless Ricketts goes crazy with payroll, which would be fine with me.

 

Well for one thing Soriano comes off the very next year...for the other...you buy a RF. Considering that we have Pujols in this scenario, there's no NEED to get Kemp, it's mostly a want. Andre Ethier, Carlos Quentin, and even Ichiro will be FAs too, and won't cost 100+ million like Kemp will. There's also Josh Hamilton...Maybe they want a stop-gap and wait until THE Justin Upton is a FA in 2015. Hell, I'm still hoping the D'Backs suck next year and put Upton back on at least the internet trade rumor market....no, on the real life real trade market.

[dew1679666265]

Well for one thing Soriano comes off the very next year...for the other...you buy a RF. Considering that we have Pujols in this scenario, there's no NEED to get Kemp, it's mostly a want. Andre Ethier, Carlos Quentin, and even Ichiro will be FAs too, and won't cost 100+ million like Kemp will. There's also Josh Hamilton...Maybe they want a stop-gap and wait until THE Justin Upton is a FA in 2015.

 

That's the thing, I'm wondering if we'd be able to buy RF that season. Off the top of my head, we could be looking at $85-95 million tied up in 5 players in 2013 (assuming roughly $15 million for Upton and Garza, each, just to use a number). That would give us less something like $70-80 million to fill 20 other roster spots. Can we put another $10+ million into an Ethier or Ichiro at that point? Maybe we can, but I'd want to know for sure how open with the pocketbook Ricketts will be before I feel good about that scenario.

[Cubswin11]

Well for one thing Soriano comes off the very next year...for the other...you buy a RF. Considering that we have Pujols in this scenario, there's no NEED to get Kemp, it's mostly a want. Andre Ethier, Carlos Quentin, and even Ichiro will be FAs too, and won't cost 100+ million like Kemp will. There's also Josh Hamilton...Maybe they want a stop-gap and wait until THE Justin Upton is a FA in 2015.

 

That's the thing, I'm wondering if we'd be able to buy RF that season. Off the top of my head, we could be looking at $85-95 million tied up in 5 players in 2013 (assuming roughly $15 million for Upton and Garza, each, just to use a number). That would give us less something like $70-80 million to fill 20 other roster spots. Can we put another $10+ million into an Ethier or Ichiro at that point? Maybe we can, but I'd want to know for sure how open with the pocketbook Ricketts will be before I feel good about that scenario.

I really hope we aren't giving a 40 year old Ichiro a contact where he's making $10m annually in 2013

[dew1679666265]

I really hope we aren't giving a 40 year old Ichiro a contact where he's making $10m annually in 2013

 

I'm not sure how much interest I'd have in Ichiro at that point at any cost, but it's possible his name and Japanese following may get him overpaid even then. I probably should have used Quentin instead of Ichiro in the $10+ million category, though.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I really hope we aren't giving a 40 year old Ichiro a contact where he's making $10m annually in 2013

 

Last year was a down year. Happens when you get old. Happened to Jeter just a I know players decline and etc etc, but Ichiro Suzuki is not a .272 hitter. Plus, it'd be 1-2 years just to leadoff and help win a WS.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

That's the thing, I'm wondering if we'd be able to buy RF that season. Off the top of my head, we could be looking at $85-95 million tied up in 5 players in 2013 (assuming roughly $15 million for Upton and Garza, each, just to use a number). That would give us less something like $70-80 million to fill 20 other roster spots. Can we put another $10+ million into an Ethier or Ichiro at that point? Maybe we can, but I'd want to know for sure how open with the pocketbook Ricketts will be before I feel good about that scenario.

 

Yeah, I can agree. The easy route to go would be Pujols + CC/Wilson in FA. Sit back, wait for Kemp (trade or FA) and 2013 pitchers. It's a good idea. Pretty cut and dry, and the team would be awesome.

Edited October 25, 2011 by KingKongvs.Godzilla

[17 Seconds]

I really hope we aren't giving a 40 year old Ichiro a contact where he's making $10m annually in 2013

 

Last year was a down year. Happens when you get old. Happened to Jeter just a I know players decline and etc etc, but Ichiro Suzuki is not a .272 hitter. Plus, it'd be 1-2 years just to leadoff and help win a WS.

 

yeah, players definitely tend to get bad at baseball when they get old

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I really hope we aren't giving a 40 year old Ichiro a contact where he's making $10m annually in 2013

 

Last year was a down year. Happens when you get old. Happened to Jeter just a I know players decline and etc etc, but Ichiro Suzuki is not a .272 hitter. Plus, it'd be 1-2 years just to leadoff and help win a WS.

 

yeah, players definitely tend to get bad at baseball when they get old

 

Yep. Here today, gone tomorrow. Ichiro HAS been trending down...350+ to .315 to .272...He probably is finished. I bet he doesn't have a good year next year, NOT. Tsss.

[17 Seconds]

interesting style of debate. reference good points/reasoning that your opposition might make before they can make them, then say "NOT" afterwards.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

interesting style of debate. reference good points/reasoning that your opposition might make before they can make them, then say "NOT" afterwards.

 

You were making a point with that comment? I was saying something equally nonsensical, hence my tsss, which I really should stop doing but can't. The here today, gone tomorrow was the most serious part of that post.

 

There's things I could pick at with your post...what is "bad at baseball" defined as here? Does every player decline equally? Are there exceptions?

[17 Seconds]

it's like your post progressions are deliberately incoherent

[17 Seconds]

*responds with post telling me it's my fault that i can't decipher his complex opinions*

[17 Seconds]

That's the thing, I'm wondering if we'd be able to buy RF that season. Off the top of my head, we could be looking at $85-95 million tied up in 5 players in 2013 (assuming roughly $15 million for Upton and Garza, each, just to use a number). That would give us less something like $70-80 million to fill 20 other roster spots. Can we put another $10+ million into an Ethier or Ichiro at that point? Maybe we can, but I'd want to know for sure how open with the pocketbook Ricketts will be before I feel good about that scenario.

 

Yeah, I can agree. The easy route to go would be Pujols + CC/Wilson in FA. Sit back, wait for Kemp (trade or FA) and 2013 pitchers. It's a good idea. Pretty cut and dry, and the team would be awesome.

 

Theo Epstein's overall philosophy is to build a stable organization through continuous development of talent within the organization. He's not going to go out and give huge contracts to all the big free agents to win immediately. Especially not to guys like Sabathia, Ichiro, etc.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Theo Epstein's overall philosophy is to build a stable organization through continuous development of talent within the organization. He's not going to go out and give huge contracts to all the big free agents to win immediately. Especially not to guys like Sabathia, Ichiro, etc.

 

Pretty sure that's everyone's overall philosophy. In practice, it's not that easy and it isn't so cut and dry, just as declining with age isn't so cut and dry.

 

Ichiro will be 39 years old when he hits FA, and could easily just retire. Do you really think he'd be getting some huge, franchise changing contract? Sabathia you're just plain wrong on. He'll decline, but despite how you might seem to imply in your posts it's very possible to do that gracefully. It's even happened before.

[Rob]

Most of Ichiro's peripherals were relatively intact last year. His BABIP was 50 points below his career average which made for most of the difference on offense. What's worrying to me is that this is the first year that his defense wasn't generally well regarded. Most metrics have him average to below-average. Without having seen him much this year, I can't say for certain what the cause is. Losing a step would account for the defensive woes and the dropoff from his ridiculously high career BABIP. Or it could just be that standard BABIP "bad luck" and a bit of noise in the defensive metrics.

 

Trading for him this season probably isn't a good idea (for reasons both related and unrelated to his performance). But if this season lines up well with his career norms, it might not be the worst thing in the world to go after him as a stopgap for 2013. Best to wait and see.

[17 Seconds]

Theo Epstein's overall philosophy is to build a stable organization through continuous development of talent within the organization. He's not going to go out and give huge contracts to all the big free agents to win immediately. Especially not to guys like Sabathia, Ichiro, etc.

 

Pretty sure that's everyone's overall philosophy. In practice, it's not that easy and it isn't so cut and dry.

 

Ichiro will be 39 years old when he hits FA, and could easily just retire. Do you really think he'd be getting some huge, franchise changing contract? Sabathia you're just plain wrong on. He'll decline, but despite how you might seem to imply in your posts it's very possible to do that gracefully, and it's even happened before (even recently!).

 

I never said it hasn't happened before. It's about minimizing risk. Even if you're optimistic for our chances in the next year or 2, you should still realize that Theo's priority (and rightfully so) is what the team will look like in a few years and then continuously beyond that. Your argument is that "he might not decline", etc etc., but that's not a good way to look at it. You assess the risk involved, and the older you are, the more of a risk you are. that's pretty simple. Sure Sabathia could still be an elite pitcher in 2015, but how likely is that? I feel like signing Sabathia would be saying "by the end of this contract there's a huge chance we're going to be paying 20 mil a year to a guy with an ERA in the mid 4's" and for what? So we can be more competetive right now, with a team that probably isn't going to win anyways? I'm fine with building for both now and the future, but I don't think Sabathia fits in with building for the future, at all.

 

I mean, what's your realistically optimistic hope with Sabathia. 3 more years as an elite pitcher? Maybe 4? And how many years will be probably get? 6 or 7? And how many of those elite years will actually come in seasons where we're ready to actually win a World Series? 1 or 2?

 

So knowing that's what he's going to try to do here, why is he going to immediately go out and spend big money on a 31 year old pitcher who will be getting into his mid 30's by the time the Cubs hope to become a Boston type organization (legit contenders just about every year).

 

I'm not saying Theo is going to throw out 2012 (and he shouldn't) but I don't see how you can envision him going out and throwing huge money on a guy who figures to be trending downwards around the time the organization hopes to be trending upwards. Especially considering the top SP talent that will be hitting free agency in the next couple offseasons.

 

It's like you're excited about Theo, but all your suggestions are the types of things that this organization has been doing for years. Giving out significant money to guys who are most likely going to be declining at a point when they still have big money coming to them, and going for immediate results based on who happens to be available, instead of methodically building a team when it actually make sense.

 

"Well, Cole Hamels and Zack Greinke may be better options than CC considering what we're tryng to build long-term here, but if we just settle for Sabathia, we can have him NOW"

Edited October 25, 2011 by 17 Seconds

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Most of Ichiro's peripherals were relatively intact last year. His BABIP was 50 points below his career average which made for most of the difference on offense. What's worrying to me is that this is the first year that his defense wasn't generally well regarded. Most metrics have him average to below-average. Without having seen him much this year, I can't say for certain what the cause is. Losing a step would account for the defensive woes and the dropoff from his ridiculously high career BABIP. Or it could just be that standard BABIP "bad luck" and a bit of noise in the defensive metrics.

 

Trading for him this season probably isn't a good idea (for reasons both related and unrelated to his performance). But if this season lines up well with his career norms, it might not be the worst thing in the world to go after him as a stopgap for 2013. Best to wait and see.

 

The Mariners would never trade Ichiro anyway. Or I should say it'd take something drastic. Maybe a trade deadline type thing where he becomes the 2012 Kenny Lofton...

[dew1679666265]

It's like you're excited about Theo, but all your suggestions are the types of things that this organization has been doing for years. Giving out significant money to guys who are most likely going to be declining at a point when they still have big money coming to them, and going for immediate results based on who happens to be available, instead of methodically building a team when it actually make sense.

 

What's your view on signing Pujols?

 

On the CC idea, I'd be fine with giving him a 6 year deal and getting 4 elite years. Unless you think CC is going to just fall off a cliff at 35 (possible), then his decline would take him from elite to great to very good and then the contract ends. To put it another way, he may be a 7 WAR player the next two years, 6 WAR two years after that, 4 WAR, and then 3 WAR the final two years of his deal. I'd be fine with that.

 

My opposition to CC is not that he'd be declining at the end of his contract, but that his AAV will probably be in the $23-28 range, which would put us out of the Pujols/Prince sweepstakes. Given the pitching upcoming this offseason and next and the fact that hitters are less of a risk than pitchers, I'll pass on CC in order to go after Pujols/Prince.

[davearm2]

Most of Ichiro's peripherals were relatively intact last year. His BABIP was 50 points below his career average which made for most of the difference on offense. What's worrying to me is that this is the first year that his defense wasn't generally well regarded. Most metrics have him average to below-average. Without having seen him much this year, I can't say for certain what the cause is. Losing a step would account for the defensive woes and the dropoff from his ridiculously high career BABIP. Or it could just be that standard BABIP "bad luck" and a bit of noise in the defensive metrics.

 

Trading for him this season probably isn't a good idea (for reasons both related and unrelated to his performance). But if this season lines up well with his career norms, it might not be the worst thing in the world to go after him as a stopgap for 2013. Best to wait and see.

 

The Mariners would never trade Ichiro anyway. Or I should say it'd take something drastic. Maybe a trade deadline type thing where he becomes the 2012 Kenny Lofton...

I'm not sure it gets any more drastic than finishing behind Baltimore.

[17 Seconds]

It's like you're excited about Theo, but all your suggestions are the types of things that this organization has been doing for years. Giving out significant money to guys who are most likely going to be declining at a point when they still have big money coming to them, and going for immediate results based on who happens to be available, instead of methodically building a team when it actually make sense.

 

What's your view on signing Pujols?

 

On the CC idea, I'd be fine with giving him a 6 year deal and getting 4 elite years. Unless you think CC is going to just fall off a cliff at 35 (possible), then his decline would take him from elite to great to very good and then the contract ends. To put it another way, he may be a 7 WAR player the next two years, 6 WAR two years after that, 4 WAR, and then 3 WAR the final two years of his deal. I'd be fine with that.

 

My opposition to CC is not that he'd be declining at the end of his contract, but that his AAV will probably be in the $23-28 range, which would put us out of the Pujols/Prince sweepstakes. Given the pitching upcoming this offseason and next and the fact that hitters are less of a risk than pitchers, I'll pass on CC in order to go after Pujols/Prince.

 

Mixed feelings on Albert. On one hand I can't deny that it would be amazing to see him play for the Cubs, but I don't know. I think I'd prefer Prince with the savings it would allow over Pujols. Pujols just scares the hell out of me at the price he's going to demand. Too risky imo.

[dew1679666265]

Mixed feelings on Albert. On one hand I can't deny that it would be amazing to see him play for the Cubs, but I don't know. I think I'd prefer Prince with the savings it would allow over Pujols. Pujols just scares the hell out of me at the price he's going to demand. Too risky imo.

 

It's definitely a huge risk, but one I think is worth taking with the Cubs' monetary outlook going forward and Theo/Hoyer/McLeod's ability to build a farm system exceptionally well.

[ctcf]

I think I'm pretty firmly in the Prince Fielder camp. The dude is entering his prime at 27 so even a 6-7 year deal wouldn't see him being too old at the end. I don't really want Albert for 8-10 years which I really think he could end up getting. For all the fat jokes and concern about his weight, etc., he does appear to be a pretty healthy guy having switched to vegetarianism a couple years ago if I recall correctly. Also, he shares my birthday, which is awesome.