Pujols signs with Angels pg 151

[Magnetic Curses]

yes, build the brand of nsbb by having davearm write articles and promoting them

 

ahahahahahahahaha

[Magnetic Curses]

yes, build the brand of nsbb by having davearm write articles and promoting them

 

There's nothing like a point/counterpoint to demonstrate which perspective is correct or has a better return for the Cubs. Unless of course you would let Davearm go unrebutted...

 

oh jeez get over yourself doug

[SouthSideRyan]

So figure out that Pujols is older after 5 years and void his contract.

[Guest]

So figure out that Pujols is older after 5 years and void his contract.

 

 

THAT would be a [expletive] bauce move.

[Guest]

Alright, I've got part two of my Pujols article up.

 

I could repost all the logic and pretty charts here, but you should really just click the link! :)

 

 

 

In summary, I'll borrow a phrase from Bears fans: "Pay the man!"

Thanks for doing this Tim. I have some questions about your approach:

 

* why did you trend out wOBA instead of WAR? WAR is ultimately what we care about, since it's more comprehensive.

* I was curious why you didn't bake the injury risk into your analysis. It's easy to do, simply by including the comps that were impacted by injuries. Others may disagree, but I think it's a distinct risk with Pujols, and not some low-probability possibility. He's had chronic injuries in the past, and frankly he looked awful running late in the year this year.

 

As you probably know, I did a pretty similar comp-driven analysis, and got some much different results... and of course an opposite conclusion.

 

Specifically, I think you're incorrect about how likely Pujols is to hit the $200M and $275M value marks. The first seems about 50/50 to me, and the second seems about 10 or 20% likely. Only Aaron and Mays had career arcs that generated that level of value. Many more players had HOF-caliber careers through age 31, but didn't play well (or at all) into their 40s.

 

The other glaring error seemed to be in the analysis that concluded with, "in every season in age 32 and beyond, these four players retained a minimum of 91% of their value from their age 29-31 seasons." They surely did not on a WAR basis, despite having pretty stable wOBAs, as you showed.

 

Anyway, I'll try to write my stuff up more fully ASAP.

Dave, I thought I answered most of these questions in the intro and touched on the answers throughout the analysis.

The metric that will be used for the comparisons is wOBA. This metric represents a rate measure of a player's offensive contribution. I limited the comparison to offense because of the difficulties in comparing a first baseman to some of the great CF's of all time in Griffey, Mantle and Mays. I also used a rate metric instead of a counting stat such as WAR to focus on performance changes for the players instead of the playing time reductions due to injury. I wanted to reduce the impact of injuries because the medicine and conditioning of the eras involved is so dramatically different.

In short, I wanted to narrow the focus to age's impact on performance as much as possible and avoid comparisons based on injury, disease or mental/makeup issues. Unless you think Pujols is going to contract ALS, it isn't relevant that Gehrig didn't play after 36. Unless you think he's going to become an alcoholic, Foxx's early end to his career doesn't matter.

 

While Pujols has had some injury issues, he's been able to play ~155 games in the majority of his seasons and never has missed as many as 20 games in any year. That's a far cry from many of the comps who entered this stage of their careers with chronic injuries that brought them down early. Plus, with the advances in medicine and conditioning, I'm just not sold that it's relevant that Mel Ott's injuries cut his career short back in the 30's. Who knows if that would happen still today.

 

Juan Gonzalez had multiple issues that cut his career short - injuries, alleged massive steroid abuse and personality issues. On top of that, I'm not sold that he's truly a good comp looking at the offensive numbers.

 

To me, the only player I excluded that there's a real argument for including (imo) is Griffey. I went back and forth on him a couple of times but pulled him out because his injuries were already becoming chronic at that age. The other (and even more subjective) reason I took him out was that he had a habit of pushing himself too hard in CF and causing injury to himself. Whether that was crashing into walls and other players or simply outrunning his hamstrings, he just didn't strike me as a good comparison for Pujols. It was definitely the toughest choice for me to make out of the 10, though.

[dew1679666265]

Don't most of the discoveries come after the player is coming back from his home country in the offseason? Pujols' whole family came here when he was young, and now he's a US citizen.

 

Wouldn't Pujols being a US citizen since his youth make him much less likely to be lying about his age? I'm not real familiar with how they fake the birth certificate, but it seems like a 20-something kid coming to the states by himself is much more likely to be able to successfully doctor his certificate than if that kid's entire family came to the states and made this their permanent residence.

 

I may be way off here, though.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Don't most of the discoveries come after the player is coming back from his home country in the offseason? Pujols' whole family came here when he was young, and now he's a US citizen.

 

Wouldn't Pujols being a US citizen since his youth make him much less likely to be lying about his age? I'm not real familiar with how they fake the birth certificate, but it seems like a 20-something kid coming to the states by himself is much more likely to be able to successfully doctor his certificate than if that kid's entire family came to the states and made this their permanent residence.

 

I may be way off here, though.

 

That sounds about right to me. Honestly, the age thing sounds like something teams are leaking to try to keep the price down.

[dew1679666265]

That sounds about right to me. Honestly, the age thing sounds like something teams are leaking to try to keep the price down.

 

Yeah, a bunch of rumors with absolutely nothing to back them up other than speculation sounds like either teams coming up with excuses not to pursue Pujols or teams leaking rumors to try to lessen the overall interest and, thus, drive down his price.

[Pushfrog98]

I overheard a bit on one of the sports radio stations on XM last night and it made it sound like the Marlins are offering a chunk of team ownership to Pujols once he retires and that he would be part of the "board" or something like that until the day he died. I didn't catch the first part of them talking, so I don't know if they said, "What if the Marlins...". Anyone else hear anything like that?

[SouthSideRyan]

I overheard a bit on one of the sports radio stations on XM last night and it made it sound like the Marlins are offering a chunk of team ownership to Pujols once he retires and that he would be part of the "board" or something like that until the day he died. I didn't catch the first part of them talking, so I don't know if they said, "What if the Marlins...". Anyone else hear anything like that?

 

Almost certain that's illegal.

[jersey cubs fan]

I overheard a bit on one of the sports radio stations on XM last night and it made it sound like the Marlins are offering a chunk of team ownership to Pujols once he retires and that he would be part of the "board" or something like that until the day he died. I didn't catch the first part of them talking, so I don't know if they said, "What if the Marlins...". Anyone else hear anything like that?

 

Almost certain that's illegal.

 

In leagues with salary caps, yes. Not sure about MLB.

[SouthSideRyan]

Hmmm, guess you're right.

 

Lozano's apparently unsuccessful attempt to acquire a piece of the team is unconventional and perhaps even unprecedented, but it is not explicitly disallowed by baseball rules, which only prohibit part ownership of a competing team by a player. Had DeWitt agreed to take Pujols as a limited partner, commissioner Bud Selig would have had to approve the complicated arrangement, which would have had to allow for a provision for transfer of Pujols' shares in the event he were later traded (although for a practical matter, that may not have mattered since Pujols already has veto rights over trades as a 10-and-5 player). So while Lozano's request wasn't technically impossible, it would have complicated things.

 

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/jon_heyman/02/15/cardinals-pujols-negotiations/index.html#ixzz1eRvENns5

[treebird]

EDIT too slow and i hate you ryan

[sneakypower]

Mike Ilitch offered Carl Pavano some Little Caesars franchises during FA negotiations in the 04-05 offseason

[brinoch]

yes, build the brand of nsbb by having davearm write articles and promoting them

 

There's nothing like a point/counterpoint to demonstrate which perspective is correct or has a better return for the Cubs. Unless of course you would let Davearm go unrebutted...

 

oh jeez get over yourself doug

 

:D

[davearm2]

yes, build the brand of nsbb by having davearm write articles and promoting them

 

There's nothing like a point/counterpoint to demonstrate which perspective is correct or has a better return for the Cubs. Unless of course you would let Davearm go unrebutted...

 

oh jeez get over yourself doug

 

:D

My article's ready, I just need to hand it off to someone that can host it.

[javy knows my name]

NSBB, don't do this

[imb]

at least let the bum write a counter-counter point.

[mookie]

I am ready for the Dave article. I want to see it.

[Sammy Sofa]

STEP BACK FROM THE LEDGE, TIM.

[Guest]

Dave took the time to write out a well-researched and well-written response. I've got no problems publishing it.

 

Here it is.

 

If anyone else wants to invest that much time in a response, I'm happy to oblige!

[brinoch]

Interesting. I think the first conclusion isn't supported by the data.

 

I think a more correct conclusion is that if the Cubs want to win a World Series in the near future, a player like Pujols will be a key component for the next 4-5 years at a price that is more or less correctly valued for his WAR. After that, his contract will be somewhat of an albatross -- paying for past production rather than future performance.

 

Furthermore, looking outside the data, if the Cubs can develop high WAR players in the next 4-5 years, they can easily offset the Pujols contract with cheap production. Essentially, I think the Cubs can jumpstart their team with the addition of Pujols, making them very competitive until the changes implemented by Theo, et al. can take root in the organization and the talent pipeline flows.

[Guest]

.... Edited November 23, 2011 by David

[erik316wttn]

OH GOD SOMEONE I DON'T LIKE HAS WRITTEN AN ARTICLE AND I'M GOING TO JUDGE IT BEFORE I EVEN READ IT!!!

[davearm2]

Interesting. I think the first conclusion isn't supported by the data.

 

I think a more correct conclusion is that if the Cubs want to win a World Series in the near future, a player like Pujols will be a key component for the next 4-5 years at a price that is more or less correctly valued for his WAR. After that, his contract will be somewhat of an albatross -- paying for past production rather than future performance.

 

Furthermore, looking outside the data, if the Cubs can develop high WAR players in the next 4-5 years, they can easily offset the Pujols contract with cheap production. Essentially, I think the Cubs can jumpstart their team with the addition of Pujols, making them very competitive until the changes implemented by Theo, et al. can take root in the organization and the talent pipeline flows.

Thanks for the feedback.

 

This is probably a glass-half-full/glass-half-empty thing, but my perspective is, by the time the Cubs can develop those high WAR players, and the talent pipeline begins to flow, the thing that could kill all the momentum would be to be hamstrung by an enormous albatross contract.

 

When they reach that point, they need to be fully poised to add the $20M+/year player (or two) that can push them over the top. I'd hate to have that money already spent on an aging, once-great but now mediocre Pujols.