Pujols signs with Angels pg 151

[Guest]

Albert Pujols on April 11: .150/.222/.225/.447

 

Albert Pujols after April 11: 155 games, 688 PA's, .314/.420/.578/.998 with 41 HR

 

*resists urge to say it ... tries not to say it... has to say it*

Did the games before April 11 not count?

 

So it's a coincidence that Pujols' "decline" manifested itself so neatly in a two week window at the outset of the season?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Albert Pujols on April 11: .150/.222/.225/.447

 

Albert Pujols after April 11: 155 games, 688 PA's, .314/.420/.578/.998 with 41 HR

 

*resists urge to say it ... tries not to say it... has to say it*

Did the games before April 11 not count?

 

So it's a coincidence that Pujols' "decline" manifested itself so neatly in a two week window at the outset of the season?

 

Possibly. Do you have an alternative explanation?

[Sammy Sofa]

Terrorism.

[Guest]

Albert Pujols on April 11: .150/.222/.225/.447

 

Albert Pujols after April 11: 155 games, 688 PA's, .314/.420/.578/.998 with 41 HR

 

*resists urge to say it ... tries not to say it... has to say it*

Did the games before April 11 not count?

 

So it's a coincidence that Pujols' "decline" manifested itself so neatly in a two week window at the outset of the season?

 

Possibly. Do you have an alternative explanation?

 

Yes. Variance. Including postseason, he put up another season just as good as his prime years once he got his taxes filed.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yes. Variance. Including postseason, he put up another season just as good as his prime years once he got his taxes filed.

 

So if we ignore the worst part of his season, his season looks better? I will never get tired of disliking these types of arguments.

 

His season is his season. Tacking on his postseason numbers to show how close he got to recovering from the slump makes sense to me. Parsing out his pre-April 11 numbers does not.

[Guest]

We're not talking about a random 2 week stretch in June here. The timing matters.

 

But if it makes you feel better, include it all. 733 PAs, .304/.407/.556/.963, and something like a 168 OPS+.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yes. Variance. Including postseason, he put up another season just as good as his prime years once he got his taxes filed.

 

So if we ignore the worst part of his season, his season looks better? I will never get tired of disliking these types of arguments.

 

His season is his season. Tacking on his postseason numbers to show how close he got to recovering from the slump makes sense to me. Parsing out his pre-April 11 numbers does not.

 

Kyle, we're talking about the first 10 games here. Pujols played in 147 games during the regular season. It's not like anyone is suggesting that you "ignore" half of his season or something ridiculous.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We're not talking about a random 2 week stretch in June here. The timing matters.

 

But if it makes you feel better, include it all. 733 PAs, .304/.407/.556/.963, and something like a 168 OPS+.

 

Yes. That does make me feel better.

[Pushfrog98]

Yes. Variance. Including postseason, he put up another season just as good as his prime years once he got his taxes filed.

 

So if we ignore the worst part of his season, his season looks better? I will never get tired of disliking these types of arguments.

 

His season is his season. Tacking on his postseason numbers to show how close he got to recovering from the slump makes sense to me. Parsing out his pre-April 11 numbers does not.

 

Kyle, we're talking about the first 10 games here. Pujols played in 147 games during the regular season. It's not like anyone is suggesting that you "ignore" half of his season or something ridiculous.

Plus, wasn't he dealing with shoulder issues at the end of last season? That could be a good reason for the slow start this year.

[mul21]

Yes. Variance. Including postseason, he put up another season just as good as his prime years once he got his taxes filed.

 

So if we ignore the worst part of his season, his season looks better? I will never get tired of disliking these types of arguments.

 

His season is his season. Tacking on his postseason numbers to show how close he got to recovering from the slump makes sense to me. Parsing out his pre-April 11 numbers does not.

 

Actually, I think it does make a difference when you factor in he was facing the best pitching in baseball in the post season and had great numbers. That, and how many other guys start off the season slow? I mean DLee was pretty much awful in April every year.

[erik316wttn]

Yes. Variance. Including postseason, he put up another season just as good as his prime years once he got his taxes filed.

 

So if we ignore the worst part of his season, his season looks better? I will never get tired of disliking these types of arguments.

 

His season is his season. Tacking on his postseason numbers to show how close he got to recovering from the slump makes sense to me. Parsing out his pre-April 11 numbers does not.

 

Actually, I think it does make a difference when you factor in he was facing the best pitching in baseball in the post season and had great numbers. That, and how many other guys start off the season slow? I mean DLee was pretty much awful in April every year.

 

As was Sandberg, and I think Hank Aaron as well. Slow starts don't mean anything.

[ctcf]

I love that this thread is about to hit 100 pages without a single actual rumor of the Cubs seriously pursuing either of these guys.

[jersey cubs fan]

I love that this thread is about to hit 100 pages without a single actual rumor of the Cubs seriously pursuing either of these guys.

 

Because the the question is about whether they are realistic options, not that they are poised to sign. We've known for a very long time that they would be available and the Cubs would have the need and financial resources to sign either.

[Guest]

I love that this thread is about to hit 100 pages without a single actual rumor of the Cubs seriously pursuing either of these guys.

The only team we know of to have seriously pursued either one so far is Miami. And that seemed to be more for show than a serious attempt.

[WrigleyField 22]

If we're trying to find trends in decline why pick an arbitrary cutoff as seasoms end anyways? Statistically you'd want a moving average and to study the movement. I mean depending on how quickly you believe declines occur what happened the last month of 2010 is near if not just as relevant as the first month in 2011.

 

Its clear Albert will decline, but it may not be for 3 years and this year was a just a blip. Or he may level off for the next 6.

[davearm2]

Alright, I've got part two of my Pujols article up.

 

I could repost all the logic and pretty charts here, but you should really just click the link! :)

 

 

 

In summary, I'll borrow a phrase from Bears fans: "Pay the man!"

Thanks for doing this Tim. I have some questions about your approach:

 

* why did you trend out wOBA instead of WAR? WAR is ultimately what we care about, since it's more comprehensive.

* I was curious why you didn't bake the injury risk into your analysis. It's easy to do, simply by including the comps that were impacted by injuries. Others may disagree, but I think it's a distinct risk with Pujols, and not some low-probability possibility. He's had chronic injuries in the past, and frankly he looked awful running late in the year this year.

 

As you probably know, I did a pretty similar comp-driven analysis, and got some much different results... and of course an opposite conclusion.

 

Specifically, I think you're incorrect about how likely Pujols is to hit the $200M and $275M value marks. The first seems about 50/50 to me, and the second seems about 10 or 20% likely. Only Aaron and Mays had career arcs that generated that level of value. Many more players had HOF-caliber careers through age 31, but didn't play well (or at all) into their 40s.

 

The other glaring error seemed to be in the analysis that concluded with, "in every season in age 32 and beyond, these four players retained a minimum of 91% of their value from their age 29-31 seasons." They surely did not on a WAR basis, despite having pretty stable wOBAs, as you showed.

 

Anyway, I'll try to write my stuff up more fully ASAP.

[brinoch]

Davearm2, I would encourage you to write and submit such an article, if you have time. More analysis on the topic is good for discussion and helps people -- supporters and opponents of a Pujols signing -- put a long contract in proper perspective.

[treebird]

yes, build the brand of nsbb by having davearm write articles and promoting them

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I assume not, but anybody worried that HGH testing might have an impact on a guy like Pujols?

[mul21]

I assume not, but anybody worried that HGH testing might have an impact on a guy like Pujols?

 

I actually said exactly this to somebody yesterday, and it was only about half in jest.

[davell]

I'm really starting to worry more and more about the age thing with Pujols. What if he IS 34 or 35 right now? I'm starting to think the best thing to do is let him resign with the Cards. Yeah, he's a terror right now, but we also are pretty sure even if his age is correct, he won't be THAT good in 4 or 5 years and he'll be a huge drain on their payroll, instead of just being a good player not worth what he's getting paid on ours. It'll hurt them more than us longterm. I think that if we sign Prince, add some frontline pitching, and one more bat, we'll be a better team than the Cards WITH Pujols by the beginning of the 2013 season, which is fine with me. One more year of probably looking up at them just doesn't bother me all that much.

[UK1679666180]

I'm really starting to worry more and more about the age thing with Pujols. What if he IS 34 or 35 right now? I'm starting to think the best thing to do is let him resign with the Cards. Yeah, he's a terror right now, but we also are pretty sure even if his age is correct, he won't be THAT good in 4 or 5 years and he'll be a huge drain on their payroll, instead of just being a good player not worth what he's getting paid on ours. It'll hurt them more than us longterm. I think that if we sign Prince, add some frontline pitching, and one more bat, we'll be a better team than the Cards WITH Pujols by the beginning of the 2013 season, which is fine with me. One more year of probably looking up at them just doesn't bother me all that much.

 

I don't see equal to where he's at now success for Fielder either beyond 31/32. To me, he's similar to Mo Vaughn and while Vaughn might've had his career cut short by the bicep injury, he was starting to decline. I expect Fielder to experience something with a gradual decline once he gets into his early 30s which is quicker than Pujols.

 

With that said, I would sign either to long-term deals.

[brinoch]

yes, build the brand of nsbb by having davearm write articles and promoting them

 

There's nothing like a point/counterpoint to demonstrate which perspective is correct or has a better return for the Cubs. Unless of course you would let Davearm go unrebutted...

[dew1679666265]

I'm really starting to worry more and more about the age thing with Pujols. What if he IS 34 or 35 right now?

 

I have to think that with the rash of age-related discrepancies that came out a few years ago, most of the guy playing under an assumed age have been corrected. It's kind of like with steroids - there was a huge crackdown on it, a bunch of players got caught, and now most of it has been cleared up.

 

Pujols is so high profile and finding out he's older than he says would be such a big story that I'd think if there were anything to the rumors, there'd be more than just rumors at this point.

[KingCubsFan]

I'm really starting to worry more and more about the age thing with Pujols. What if he IS 34 or 35 right now?

 

I have to think that with the rash of age-related discrepancies that came out a few years ago, most of the guy playing under an assumed age have been corrected. It's kind of like with steroids - there was a huge crackdown on it, a bunch of players got caught, and now most of it has been cleared up.

 

Pujols is so high profile and finding out he's older than he says would be such a big story that I'd think if there were anything to the rumors, there'd be more than just rumors at this point.

Don't most of the discoveries come after the player is coming back from his home country in the offseason? Pujols' whole family came here when he was young, and now he's a US citizen.