BA's Top 10 Cubs Prospects

[toonsterwu]

Well, couple points -

 

a) I don't think Darwin Barney should be in the top 10 ... but I would also caution against labeling him as just a backup shortstop. He's going to be a solid defensive player, and he's good enough with his contact ability that, if in the right opportunity, I think he could perhaps start on a 2nd tier club. That said, no, Barney didn't even sniff my top 15.

 

b) I think the issue with Jay is that, right now, he's a fastball guy that needs some mechanical work. He's got velocity, average movement on the fastball, and very inconsistent secondary pitches. There's potential with the secondary pitches, but his arsenal isn't great. Personally, I think he should be in the top 10.

[craig]

Well, couple points -

....

b) I think the issue with Jay is that, right now, he's a fastball guy that needs some mechanical work. He's got velocity, average movement on the fastball, and very inconsistent secondary pitches. There's potential with the secondary pitches, but his arsenal isn't great. Personally, I think he should be in the top 10.

 

How much velocity do we think he works with? My perception early on was that his fastball graded as average and that he was effective based on his breaking balls and his control. I'm wondering if maybe his fastball just isn't that good. You know, maxes out once in a while at a speed that looks good, but doesn't throw that fast very often and his working velocity is pretty average? Or, lacks movement or deception so that it's really no more effective than with a lot of guys whose working velocity might be 2-4 mph slower? I'm not claiming, I'm just wondering?

[toonsterwu]

I've seen him work as a starter in the 92-94 range with consistency (that is, he's not peaking out there). To a certain extent, one has to question stadium guns, as minor league stadium guns tend to wacky, and "velocity" is dependent on where the gun location/aim and so forth (I mean, there was a starter in the Orioles system once who I saw at around 94 ... and then in another stadium he was working 88). I know folks have seen him in starts work around 95, but I've also heard from others that say that he peaked out at 92/93 in some starts. He's ramped it up to the mid-90's in short spurt outings.

 

As for this fastball, in terms of life/movement, I don't think it's that well-thought of. I don't think it's bad either, but it is certainly not on, say, Archer or Carpenter's level.

 

I've heard plenty of mediocre reports on his slider this year. Maybe others have seen differently, but the slider, once thought of as having plus potential, doesn't seem to have developed all that well.

[craig]

Thanks a lot, toonster. That's very helpful overview. That sounds like solid velocity, even if the movement isn't too hot. With plus control and plus breaking balls, that would be pretty good. Without, not so much. Hopefully he gets that slider going this year.

[craig]

To me, the MAIN thing for our farm system is that Ricketts spends quite a bit more money on the draft and on Int FA this year than he did last year.

 

http://www.wgnradio.com/sports/baseball/cubs/wgn-sportsnight-ricketts-hendry-quade,0,5978058.mp3file

 

Hendry comments. About 75-80% into the above clip at the convention.

 

He says that the farm has been growing really well.

*Oneria has done a great job with development and with overseeing international procurement in Latin America and in Asia.

*Wilken is a really renowned as one of the 2-3 top draft directors in the business. Has a tremendous reputation in the business.

We're not going to stop signing top players like we've done the last 2-3 years.

 

The Ricketts family is totally committed to continuing to draft and sign good players and to continuing what we've been doing the last couple of years. They are totally committed to continuing our:

-expansion of the world

-expansion of our facilities in Latin America

-continue our operation in Asia

-Taking the best players in the draft and not passing on players because somebody might want more financial demands than that slot is.

 

That pipeline will continue and we will continue to sign better and better players at a level that we haven't done in the past.

 

========

It sounds very encouraging. There is a strong understood value for having a strong procurement pipeline.

 

There is reference to "expanding" in the world. To signing "better and better players at a level that we haven't done in the past". And to "not passing on players because somebody might want more financial demands" than draft slot.

 

So that sounds pretty good.

 

At the same time, their was at least as much reference to "continuing" as to "expanding". So I'm not sure how much it's going to be a case of being happy with how things have gone recently and just trying to sustain that, versus expanding the moneys that are available for signing.

 

But I am always encouraged that Hendry talks the talk really well and has a good understanding of the importance of procurement and development. I think we've made a lot of progress in those areas in the last several years, and it may be that we will be able to remain strong and get stronger in those areas.

[javy knows my name]

Sounds great. Now show me it's anything more than lip service.

 

They need to wow me with this draft, because it's all been [expletive] so far

[davell]

I want to hear something from someone other than Hendry on this honestly. Yes, it's cool he said we'd sign better players at a rate better than we've done in the past, but I'd feel better if we heard there was a much larger commitment to this from either Wilken or Ricketts. I've been scouring sites today, but haven't found anything whatsoever from Ricketts about this. I can't believe NO ONE would be asking him about this, considering his prior comments about building the system up.....

[JeffH]

Let's keep in mind this is the same management team that just traded four meaningful prospects for MATT GARZA and gave KOYIE HILL $850,000.

 

It's the same old bunch of stooges.

[Sammy Sofa]

Uhhhhhh.

 

"Four meaningful prospects?"

 

Please explain.

[JeffH]

Uhhhhhh.

 

"Four meaningful prospects?"

 

Please explain.

 

The two "lowest ranked prospects" (Guyer and Chirinos) in the deal are highly likely to have productive major league careers as at least extra guys. All four of the prospects traded are - excuse me, were - meaningful, valuable assets.

 

And Hendry exchanged them for Matt F. Garza.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm not a fan of the Garza trade, but let's be realistic; Lee and Archer were the ones worth a damn. Guyer could have been shopped smarter as part of a better deal, but your appraisal of him is pretty optimistic. Chirinos was essentially a toss-in. I know your thing is to hate anything and everything Hendry does, but come on. There's no need to inflate the mistakes made over this one. Guyer and Chirinos really aren't a big deal.

[JeffH]

I'm not a fan of the Garza trade, but let's be realistic; Lee and Archer were the ones worth a damn. Guyer could have been shopped smarter as part of a better deal, but your appraisal of him is pretty optimistic. Chirinos was essentially a toss-in. I know your thing is to hate anything and everything Hendry does, but come on. There's no need to inflate the mistakes made over this one. Guyer and Chirinos really aren't a big deal.

 

I don't hate anything and everything Hendry does. I'm just tired of the Cubs employing a GM who has proven himself unable to get the job done.

[davell]

The more I read on the situation(and asked Bruce on his blog) it appears as if Ricketts basically deflected this to Hendry. He said that Jim decides where to allocate the money for baseball operations and it depends on what they perceive to be the talent level available. Hendry at least said they'd be signing more and more better players at a higher rate than before, so maybe they'll show this side of things more attention. But, part of me thinks this is just lip service until I actually see it. The breakdown I did earlier in this thread shows me that the Cubs have 16-17 million left over from where they were last year as far as baseball budget goes and if they are not lying about having the same money, then this is close to what the budget will/should be for the draft and Int FA.

[TruffleShuffle]

*Wilken is a really renowned as one of the 2-3 top draft directors in the business. Has a tremendous reputation in the business.

We're not going to stop signing top players like we've done the last 2-3 years.

 

except when have we actually been doing that? we were one of the lowest-spending teams in the draft last year, and i don't recall us making a huge splash internationally. it's not like we've been the red sox or pirates the last couple of years and are outspending most of the league to get top amateur talent.

[dew1679666265]

Uhhhhhh.

 

"Four meaningful prospects?"

 

Please explain.

 

The two "lowest ranked prospects" (Guyer and Chirinos) in the deal are highly likely to have productive major league careers as at least extra guys. All four of the prospects traded are - excuse me, were - meaningful, valuable assets.

 

And Hendry exchanged them for Matt F. Garza.

 

Chirinos is a 27 year old catcher who saw AA pitching four times. Could he be a serviceable backup? Sure. But he's not going to have much value, if for no other reason than his age.

 

Guyer's a nice player, but he'll be 25 this year, hasn't played above AA and before last year his best OPS was .859 (in 305 PAs at A+ ball at 23 years old). When he moved up to AA that year, he had a .527 OPS. The breakout year was very nice and I think he can be a solid major leaguer, but I have no problem including him in a trade for Garza.

 

I didn't like the Garza trade, but primarily because I didn't think it was worth giving up Archer to get him. The rest of the trade wasn't overpaying at all, but including Archer was too much.

[Guest]

Got my BA Handbook today. Looks like it was published before the Garza trade. I put their current rankings after the trade in parenthesis.

 

1. Chris Archer

2. Brett Jackson (1)

3. Trey McNutt (2)

4. Hak-Ju Lee

5. Josh Vitters (3)

6. Chris Carpenter (4)

7. Matt Szczur (5)

8. Hayden Simpson (6)

9. Rafael Dolis (7)

10. Brandon Guyer

11. Alberto Cabrera (8)

12. Darwin Barney (9)

13. DJ LeMahieu (10)

14. Scott Maine (11)

15. Jay Jackson (12)

16. Robinson Chirinos

17. Welington Castillo (13)

18. Marcos Mateo (14)

19. Robinson Lopez (15)

20. Kyle Smit (16)

21. Logan Watkins (17)

22. Ryan Flaherty (18)

23. Reggie Golden (19)

24. Ben Wells (20)

25. Aaron Kurcz (21)

26. Brooks Raley (22)

27. Junior Lake (23)

28. Jae-Hoon Ha (24)

29. Esmailin Caridad (25)

30. Dae-Eun Rhee (26)

31. Matt Cerda (27)

 

AJ Morris and Michael Burgess were 18th and 19th in the Nationals organization.

[imb]

Lake 27th????

[Guest]

Callis wasn't that excited about him in the chat too. He even said it would be tempting to put him on the mound.

[Outshined_One]

There's something vaguely unsettling about having Scott Maine be the 11th best prospect in your system.

[davell]

Wow, pretty shocked about who they put in there, as far as the missing players went. I hate to ask this, but do we have a better pulse of our system than BA or guys like Law possibly? Those of us that are here, follow this stuff pretty hardcore anyway. I know we don't have the contacts obviously, but we may wind up getting about the same info as they do(albeit second hand from them), and we stay on top of it better, since we're only doing this with one team and not 30?

[Guest]

Wow, pretty shocked about who they put in there, as far as the missing players went. I hate to ask this, but do we have a better pulse of our system than BA or guys like Law possibly? Those of us that are here, follow this stuff pretty hardcore anyway. I know we don't have the contacts obviously, but we may wind up getting about the same info as they do(albeit second hand from them), and we stay on top of it better, since we're only doing this with one team and not 30?

 

If they're going to do things like put Scott Maine at 11 and put Chirinos in the Top 30, then maybe.

[KingCubsFan]

Strange rankings. I'd rather have everyone in 23-27 than everyone in 18-22. Kind of surprised Wallach didn't make it.

[craig]

Lake 27th????

 

For a guy good enough to make a top-30 list, I think Lake's review highlighted more problems than I've ever seen. Basically Callis reports that of the five tools, he can't hit, run, or defend. The arm strength is the one truly exceptional tool.

 

Callis's scouting report of Lake as a 1.5 tool guy seems rather different from the five-tool scouting report that Tim and this board have in mind. Not all scouts agree, of course, and somebody has to be wrong. Hopefully the scouts feeding Callis their views are the ones who are all wet.

 

Callis mentions "now a below average runner", "lacks range for short", "needs to improve defensive focus", "holes in swing" "chases too many pitches out of the zone", "could return to Daytona", "could be moved to mound if he doesn't show progress in 2011." Heh, with all that negativity it's no wonder Callis doesn't have him in the top 10!

 

The positive: "signature tool is cannon arm which is an 80 in 20-80 scouting scale". And "plus raw power". Great arm but can't hit, run, or field is probably why Callis thinks a switch to mound is possible.

[craig]

...

At present we know the top ten, Cerda ...Cabrera .. Chirinos/Castillo .. Watkins/Flaherty ...

..Raley..Lemahieu ..Jay Jackson ..Robinson Lopez ..Kurcz...Lake. .. Ben Wells.

 

That would leave about seven more spots. Reed, Ha, Wallach, Barney, Kim, Jung, Rhee, Whitenack Struck, Cales, Smith, Smit, Beeler might fill up most of those spots somehow. Or who knows, maybe some other teenager or Korean who's off my radar. (I certainly didn't include Watkins in my list...)

 

...Based on what was said on here about what was asked in the chat and all, I think that Rhee, Ha, Reed(remember, he made their rookie league top 20 list) Barney, and Beeler appear like their on it as well.

 

To me, it only leaves 2 spots where we really don't know who's going to be in. My guess is it comes down to Struck, Kim, Wallach, and Cales for the final 2 spots. Not sure what BA may have on Kim yet, but the 1.2 mill bonus should probably get him on the list and I think they'll favor Struck's season to Wallach's for the final spot personally.

 

Heh, so of those seven open spots, even by tossing out 13 names I got only three of them right (Ha,Barney, Smit). Dave, you were right on getting Rhee in there.

 

cal thought Cales would be a lock, nope. I actually brought up Mateo, which got mocked, but there he is in the top 20.

 

Funny.

 

I admit when evaluating their original list, I didn't really even have relievers like Caridad, Mateo, and Maine in mind.

[davell]

...

At present we know the top ten, Cerda ...Cabrera .. Chirinos/Castillo .. Watkins/Flaherty ...

..Raley..Lemahieu ..Jay Jackson ..Robinson Lopez ..Kurcz...Lake. .. Ben Wells.

 

That would leave about seven more spots. Reed, Ha, Wallach, Barney, Kim, Jung, Rhee, Whitenack Struck, Cales, Smith, Smit, Beeler might fill up most of those spots somehow. Or who knows, maybe some other teenager or Korean who's off my radar. (I certainly didn't include Watkins in my list...)

 

...Based on what was said on here about what was asked in the chat and all, I think that Rhee, Ha, Reed(remember, he made their rookie league top 20 list) Barney, and Beeler appear like their on it as well.

 

To me, it only leaves 2 spots where we really don't know who's going to be in. My guess is it comes down to Struck, Kim, Wallach, and Cales for the final 2 spots. Not sure what BA may have on Kim yet, but the 1.2 mill bonus should probably get him on the list and I think they'll favor Struck's season to Wallach's for the final spot personally.

 

Heh, so of those seven open spots, even by tossing out 13 names I got only three of them right (Ha,Barney, Smit). Dave, you were right on getting Rhee in there.

 

cal thought Cales would be a lock, nope. I actually brought up Mateo, which got mocked, but there he is in the top 20.

 

Funny.

 

I admit when evaluating their original list, I didn't really even have relievers like Caridad, Mateo, and Maine in mind.

 

 

Yeah, I wasn't thinking this way either, but this is kind of their MO, next year when we're debating this, I bet we all remember the reliever fetish of BA.