Thoughts on 2010 Rule 5?

[toonsterwu]

Mildly interesting comment from Bruce Miles on his blog in response to my question on the Rule 5 draft this year:

 

http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/4715?page=1

 

Rule 5

Had a guy lamenting to me the Cubs would have to expose more guys than they wanted to the Rule 5 draft. In the same breath, he said that's not necessarily a bad thing because it means you have more desirable players. Archer is definitely a guy they'll put on the 40-man. Guyer and Chirinos, too. Not so sure about Marquez Smith, but I'd think Sommer has the best chance to be protected among the others you mentioned.

 

The other names I had mentioned were Kyle Smit, Alberto Cabrera, Chris Siegfried, and Ryan Buchter (forgot about adding Matt Spencer in there along with Steve Clevenger). If the Cubs protect Sommer over Cabrera, I'll be a tad disappointed.

[davell]

AZPhil mentioned in one of his posts that Cabrera is the most likely of anyone to pull a "Dolis" from last year and impress enough over the winter that they don't wind up having much choice and HAVE to protect him.

[toonsterwu]

In response to a question I had on his blog, Bruce miles indicates that he believes Cabrera will be protected, along with Smit and Guyer, with Smith as someone that could go either way.

[craig]

I'd think they could fit all of those guys. Chirinos, Archer, Guyer, Cabrera, Smith, and Smit. Six additions isn't that many, and obviously the first four are pretty much locks. (Well, Chirinos has already been rostered, so he doesn't really belong in the equation.)

 

I don't even know who we've all still got on the 40, but last year it seemed we had a limitless supply of Berg/Stevens/Fuld/Mateo/Schlitter/Fuld/Hoffpauir/Snyder/Samardzija/Parker/Scales type fringers. If Smith and/or Smit are seen as comparably fringy, of course you can leave them off. But if management likes either one very much, bumping somebody off to make room shouldn't be too tough.

[toonsterwu]

Well, the 40 currently stands at 36. Some guys that might be considered borderline:

 

Fuld, Hoffpauir, J. Baker (cost), K. Hill, Stevens, Schlitter, Samardzija, Mateo, Diamond, Berg, Caridad, Gaub, maybe Maine.

 

More than likely, the org will leave a spot or two open for FA's.

 

Random thoughts below:

 

Fuld/Hoffpauir are more interesting cases than I initially presumed (I thought both were goners). Unless Guyer is ready (and he really should get a full year in the minors), the Cubs might have a need for a backup CF (particularly if Fukudome is moved and Colvin given full-time duty in RF). There's also no real upper level stopgap Hoffpauir-esque type on the 40 if the Cubs don't want to rush Brett or Brandon, although I don't think he has options left, so that may be an issue. I mean, we're looking at James Adduci, Ty Wright, Tony Campana, Matt Spencer types in AAA, none of them being guys that I'd want as a stopgap early in 2011 if an injury occurred.

 

I want Baker back ... but I guess I can understand moving on if the costs are an issue. That said, if Baker leaves, the Cubs likely need a versatile backup IF/OF who can hit for some pop ... and I find it hard to see any vet FA's will be that much cheaper than Baker.

 

Of the pitchers, if they feel something positive on Gaub, I'd keep him around since he has good lefty pen potential, better than, say, Russell or Maine.

 

I wonder if diamond's relationship with Bush protects him somewhat.

[wvcbxl]

Fuld/Hoffpauir are more interesting cases than I initially presumed (I thought both were goners). Unless Guyer is ready (and he really should get a full year in the minors), the Cubs might have a need for a backup CF (particularly if Fukudome is moved and Colvin given full-time duty in RF). There's also no real upper level stopgap Hoffpauir-esque type on the 40 if the Cubs don't want to rush Brett or Brandon, although I don't think he has options left, so that may be an issue.

 

Both Fuld and Hoffpauir are out of options, that's why I think they will be removed from the 40 man unless they are traded. They (especially Hoffpauir) fill roles that require flexibility; being out of options kinda makes them unattractive to the Cubs, imho.

[toonsterwu]

Don't get me wrong ... I think betting money is that both are probably off the 40 as well. I just think their chances of sticking around are higher than I expected entering the offseason (Fuld moreso than Hoffpauir).

[davell]

AZPhil mentioned that it's likely Hoffpauir winds up in Japan. He's at that age where if he wants to make good money for a few years, it's now or never. He also had said Fuld is likely to get dealt. Koyie Hill is probably going to be non-tendered, then given a non-roster invitation to spring training........

[toonsterwu]

Micah to Nippon. http://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/4992214677590016

 

That brings it to 35. Probably need to clear another spot or two. As of now, they could safely protect Archer, Guyer, Cabrera, Smit, and Smith if they wanted, but they'll probably want space for a starter, a pen arm, and a first baseman at the very least.

 

There's more than enough guys that could still be on the chopping block, though, ranging from Sam Fuld, to Koyie Hill or Jeff Baker, and then a bunch of pen arms (Berg, Caridad, Diamond, Gaub, Maine, Mateo, Samardzija, Schlitter, Stevens).

[davell]

Micah to Nippon. http://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/4992214677590016

 

That brings it to 35. Probably need to clear another spot or two. As of now, they could safely protect Archer, Guyer, Cabrera, Smit, and Smith if they wanted, but they'll probably want space for a starter, a pen arm, and a first baseman at the very least.

 

There's more than enough guys that could still be on the chopping block, though, ranging from Sam Fuld, to Koyie Hill or Jeff Baker, and then a bunch of pen arms (Berg, Caridad, Diamond, Gaub, Maine, Mateo, Samardzija, Schlitter, Stevens).

 

 

I think Fuld will be gone, Hil wil be non-tendered, then given a NRI to ST and we could lose one of Berg or Schlitter without it really mattering. It wouldn't shock me to see us take Gaub off the 40 man either, since he's had Blass disease and is probably not in danger of being rostered for a full year by anyone next year either. Basically, I think we're in solid shape as far as the 40 man goes.

[CubsWin]

Glad to see the Cubs protected Smit. I was hoping they would. Archer and Guyer were obvious choices and Cabrera is worthy.

[BeerHere]

When is the rule5 draft?

[JeffH]

December 9th.

[ChiCubsFan]

Rule 5 draft today.

[Guest]

Cubs took Mason Tobin, a SP with 92 innings from 2007-2009 and didn't pitch last year. BA speculates that he's been traded already. Unless I missed something, the Major League phase passed without any Cubs being taken.

[Rob]

Is anybody else noticing the mlb stream has almost no volume?

[Guancous]

Mason Tobin traded to the Rangers. He is on his way to the 2014 Cy Young Award.

[CubColtPacer]

From Bruce's blog:

 

The Cubs did lose pitchers Ronny Morla and Casey Lambert in the minor-league phase.

[Guest]

Disappointed to see Morla go.

[Little Slide Rooter]

From Bruce's blog:

 

The Cubs did lose pitchers Ronny Morla and Casey Lambert in the minor-league phase.

 

Mets took Morla.

 

3 guesses who took Lambert, and the 1st 2 dont count.

[CubsWin]

From Bruce's blog:

 

The Cubs did lose pitchers Ronny Morla and Casey Lambert in the minor-league phase.

 

Mets took Morla.

 

3 guesses who took Lambert, and the 1st 2 dont count.

Let's see...where do all former Cubs seem to wind up these days? Hmmm....starts with a 'B', ends with an 'E', and in the middle is 'altimor'.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

San Francisco?

[davell]

While it's good to see that no one was picked in the major league portion this year, next year we won't be so lucky. AZPhil posted the eligibles for next year's Rule 5 and I was shocked at who all is on it. Here's the guys that stood out to me anyway......

 

Jeffry Antigua

Jeff Beliveau

Michael Brenly

Justin Bristow

Kyler Burke

David Cales

Tony Campana

Chris Carpenter

Ryan Flaherty

Marwin Gonzalez

Jay Jackson

Junior Lake

Craig Muschko

Blake Parker

Dae Eun Rhee

Rebel Ridling

Aaron Shafer

Marquez Smith

Luke Sommer

Matt Spencer

Tony Thomas

Josh Vitters

Ty Wright

 

Obviously, some of these guys will be no-brainers for us to add. But, there's going to need to be some trades most likely to thin this group out some anyway, I would think......

[JeffH]

While it's good to see that no one was picked in the major league portion this year, next year we won't be so lucky. AZPhil posted the eligibles for next year's Rule 5 and I was shocked at who all is on it. Here's the guys that stood out to me anyway......

 

Jeffry Antigua

Jeff Beliveau

Michael Brenly

Justin Bristow

Kyler Burke

David Cales

Tony Campana

Chris Carpenter

Ryan Flaherty

Marwin Gonzalez

Jay Jackson

Junior Lake

Craig Muschko

Blake Parker

Dae Eun Rhee

Rebel Ridling

Aaron Shafer

Marquez Smith

Luke Sommer

Matt Spencer

Tony Thomas

Josh Vitters

Ty Wright

 

Obviously, some of these guys will be no-brainers for us to add. But, there's going to need to be some trades most likely to thin this group out some anyway, I would think......

 

This won't be any problem at all. Carpenter, Jackson, Lake, and Vitters. Beyond those four, I wouldn't get too worried about anybody.

[davearm2]

While it's good to see that no one was picked in the major league portion this year, next year we won't be so lucky. AZPhil posted the eligibles for next year's Rule 5 and I was shocked at who all is on it. Here's the guys that stood out to me anyway......

 

Jeffry Antigua

Jeff Beliveau

Michael Brenly

Justin Bristow

Kyler Burke

David Cales

Tony Campana

Chris Carpenter

Ryan Flaherty

Marwin Gonzalez

Jay Jackson

Junior Lake

Craig Muschko

Blake Parker

Dae Eun Rhee

Rebel Ridling

Aaron Shafer

Marquez Smith

Luke Sommer

Matt Spencer

Tony Thomas

Josh Vitters

Ty Wright

 

Obviously, some of these guys will be no-brainers for us to add. But, there's going to need to be some trades most likely to thin this group out some anyway, I would think......

 

This won't be any problem at all. Carpenter, Jackson, Lake, and Vitters. Beyond those four, I wouldn't get too worried about anybody.

Lake is nowhere near ready for a full year in the majors.