Thoughts on 2010 Rule 5?

[toonsterwu]

I don't think we've really discussed this winter's Rule 5 draft that deeply yet, unless I missed a thread or two. If I did, apologies, and feel free to ignore this. There's also this fall, so someone could emerge.

 

Anyhow, as usual, over at TCR, AzPhil provides us the list of eligible guys.

 

There is one absolute, must protect, and that is Chris Archer. With an abundance of average guys on the 40 right now, clearing 1 spot isn't going to be an issue. Robinson Chirinos will likely be protected as well.

 

Some other key names that will be eligible: Brandon Guyer, Marquez Smith, Alberto Cabrera, Luke Sommer, Matt Spencer, Kyle Smit, Chris Siegfried, Ryan Buchter, Steve Clevenger, Tony Thomas, Larry Suarez, Nate Samson, Craig Muschko, Ronny Morla, Marwin Gonzalez, Alessandro Maestri, Casey Lambert, Jake Muyco, Kyler Burke, Chris Huseby. (again, not a comprehensive list)

 

The one guy I have no clue on is Muyco. On talent and performance, I'd think no, but he is getting a Arizona Fall League spot (unless a change is made), which makes me wonder.

 

I think I'll be surprised if Tony Thomas, Larry Suarez, Kyler Burke, Chris Huseby, Nate Samson, Craig Muschko, Ronny Morla, Marwin Gonzalez, Alessandro Maestri, and Casey Lambert are protected.

 

Steve Clevenger is probably going to be exposed, unless the Cubs deal a catcher this offseason, which may open up a slot for him. If not, I doubt the Cubs will have 4 catchers on the 40.

 

I sort of lump Luke Sommer, Chris Siegfried, Ryan Buchter together. I wouldn't protect any of them (doubtful all three get plucked, and with Maine/Russell/Marshall, there are pen lefties at the bigs/AAA level). That said, would I be surprised if one of them were protected? Probably not. Of the three, I still like Siegfried's overall stuff a bit better than Sommer's 2-seamer.

 

Not sure what to think about Kyle Smit. A lot of righties in the upper levels, and his stuff isn't that exceptional that you have to protect, but he's solid enough to make a career for himself. I doubt he's protected, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was.

 

That leaves 5 more names on the quick list I posted (again, not comprehensive).

 

I think if we protect a 3rd person (would be a surprise to me if we didn't), I'd prefer it to be (no shock here) Guyer. The team could use another young OF, and his potential to perhaps be a solid 4th OF is tempting enough. Add in his excellent performance, and I think it's quite worth it.

 

If we protect a 4th guy, I'll surprise a touch. I think a lot of people would lean Marquez Smith, but I think I would rather protect Alberto Cabreras mid-90's fastball and solid slider and see if he can develop. He might end up being another Marcos Mateo, but I think it's worth the gamble to find out.

 

If we protect a 5th, it'd be Smith for me, but Spencer may nip at his heels in my head. Marquez is still line-drive power who really is only comfortable at 3rd. I'd like to see the Cubs try him in the OF, but they haven't done it yet, and he's a "break if an emergency" 2nd baseman. I know Spencer hasn't been consistent with his power, but he still has more raw power than Smith, and I'd be tempted. Close though.

 

Of course, this gets into roster issues, as spots need to be cleared for these guys. There's currently 43 names, including 60 day DL guys. Certain cuts can be expected - Bobby Scales comes to mind. Koyie Hill is another guy who will likely be off the roster. Xavier Nady will likely be gone, despite his strong finish. Jeff Baker, Micah Hoffpauir, Sam Fuld, James Adducci, Brad Snyder are far from guaranteed to be on the 40 man, and someone like Kosuke Fukudome could, obviously, be shopped. Of those guys, I think Hoffpauir is probably a clear goner, and my guess is that Fuld will be taken off as well. Snyder offers the potential to fill Hoffpauir's role, and Adducci is basically a bigger Fuld.

 

I imagine that a lot of arms will be cleared off. From the Atkins, Berg, Diamond, Gaub, Gray, Guzman, Maine, Mateo, Parker, Schlitter, Stevens group, I imagine 2-3, at least, will be taken off. I also wouldn't be all that stunned if John Grabow or Carlos Silva were moved, and there's always a slim chance of a Z trade.

 

Short of it is, there should be enough spots open. As noted, obviously a lot of time to go, so someone may emerge. If I had to take a guess now, I'd say Archer, Chirinos, Guyer, Cabrera, Smith are added to the 40 man this winter.

[Guest]

I'd say you're pretty much right on in your analysis. The one piece that would be helpful is the option status for the guys on the 40 that aren't active roster.

 

I think four guys are no-brainers: Archer, Chirinos, Guyer, Cabrera.

[wvcbxl]

I agree Archer is a no-brainer, but after that I think the Cubs will be more inclined to protect pitchers over position players if they feel players are at risk, if only because it's relatively easy to hide an additional pitcher at the back of the bullpen, even to the point where it gets silly (see Patton D.)

 

So in order I'd say Archer, Cabrera, Chirinos, then any others.

 

There is zero chance Maestri gets protected. Frankly, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he gets cut.

[SouthSideRyan]

Here's the option info from TCR

 

 

NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT in 2011:

Jeff Baker (also can decline Outright Assignment)

Sam Fuld

Tom Gorzelanny (also can decline Outright Assignment)

Jeff Gray

Angel Guzman (also can decline Outright Assignment)

Koyie Hill (also can decline Outright Assignment)

Micah Hoffpauir

Jeff Samardzija

Geovany Soto

 

 

 

ONE MINOR LEAGUE OPTION LEFT in 2011:

Mitch Atkins

Justin Berg

Blake DeWitt

Thomas Diamond (can decline Outright Assignment)

Sean Marshall (can decline Outright Assignment)

Carlos Marmol (can decline Outright Assignment)

Marcos Mateo

Jeff Stevens

Randy Wells (can decline Outright Assignment)

 

 

 

TWO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT in 2010:

James Adduci

Welington Castillo

John Gaub

Blake Parker

Brian Schlitter

 

 

 

THREE MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT in 2011:

Darwin Barney

Esmailin Caridad

Andrew Cashner

Starlin Castro

Casey Coleman

Tyler Colvin

Rafael Dolis

Kosuke Fukudome (can decline Trade or Outright Assignment, and probably has the right to decline an Optional Assignment, too)

Scott Maine

James Russell

[davell]

I think Archer, Guyer, and Chirinos are all 100% keepers. I'd venture to say Cabrera is likely kept, same with Smith. I certainly think Smith would be taken if he were exposed and could probably make an entire season on a major league roster. Hell, I'd put it at 50/50 he spends the year on OUR major league roster next year. I'm thinking our IF backups next year could be Chirinos, Smith, and Barney, all of who can play multiple positions, which provides some value in itself. It won't surprise me if we sign a vet, knocking one of these guys off, but if we are truly money crunching, this may be the way we go.

[Guest]

Smith can't play multiple positions, just third. I agree with Tim on the no-brainers:

 

Archer

Cabrera

Chirinos

Guyer

 

Maybe Smith depending on how the roster shakes out. I believe Chirinos has to be protected early.

[JeffH]

I think Chirinos being protected is far from a sure thing. Get ready for the return of Koyie Hill. I fear that this woeful organization just loves him way too much to let him go. They may not pay him an arbitration-determined salary, but, even if they non-tender him, they may bring him back.

 

If they intend to bring Hill back, Chirinos probably won't get added, unless they also intend to trade Castillo. Doubtful they keep four catchers on the 40-man.

[JeffH]

Smith can't play multiple positions, just third. I agree with Tim on the no-brainers:

 

Archer

Cabrera

Chirinos

Guyer

 

Maybe Smith depending on how the roster shakes out. I believe Chirinos has to be protected early.

 

Yes, we'll know on Chirinos in October.

[Guest]

Here's the option info from TCR

 

 

NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT in 2011:

Jeff Baker (also can decline Outright Assignment)

Sam Fuld

Tom Gorzelanny (also can decline Outright Assignment)

Jeff Gray

Angel Guzman (also can decline Outright Assignment)

Koyie Hill (also can decline Outright Assignment)

Micah Hoffpauir

Jeff Samardzija

Geovany Soto

 

 

 

ONE MINOR LEAGUE OPTION LEFT in 2011:

Mitch Atkins

Justin Berg

Blake DeWitt

Thomas Diamond (can decline Outright Assignment)

Sean Marshall (can decline Outright Assignment)

Carlos Marmol (can decline Outright Assignment)

Marcos Mateo

Jeff Stevens

Randy Wells (can decline Outright Assignment)

 

 

 

TWO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT in 2010:

James Adduci

Welington Castillo

John Gaub

Blake Parker

Brian Schlitter

 

 

 

THREE MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT in 2011:

Darwin Barney

Esmailin Caridad

Andrew Cashner

Starlin Castro

Casey Coleman

Tyler Colvin

Rafael Dolis

Kosuke Fukudome (can decline Trade or Outright Assignment, and probably has the right to decline an Optional Assignment, too)

Scott Maine

James Russell

Thanks.

 

I think that means that Fuld, Gray & Hoffpauir are all out of luck. The one with the best chance is Fuld, but I think this Sept is his last stay with the club. I don't see the club keeping Koyie around with the surplus of backup catchers in the upper minors, though JeffH may end up being right. Sadly, I think the team may also cut Guzman rather than free up an additional spot by outrighting Atkins or one of the other healthy arms.

 

That would give the team five open spots (2 RP/SP, 1 C, 1 OF, 1 OF/IF) to add five guys (2 SP/RP, 1 C, 1 OF, 1 IF).

[SouthSideRyan]

I can't quite put into words how disappointed I was to find out Mateo still has options.

[SouthSideRyan]

Personally, I'd dump:

 

Fuld

Gray (I don't hate him, but having no options screws him)

Hill

Hoffpauir

Berg (If you can't strike guys out, then you shouldn't be walking them.)

Adduci

Scales

 

The issue here is, this only opens up 4 spots on the 40 man roster and I'd like to add Archer, Guyer, Chirinos, and Cabrera. That fills the roster and you have no major league improvement, so some of the 10 identical relievers need to go too

[JeffH]

Personally, I'd dump:

 

Fuld

Gray (I don't hate him, but having no options screws him)

Hill

Hoffpauir

Berg (If you can't strike guys out, then you shouldn't be walking them.)

Adduci

Scales

 

The issue here is, this only opens up 4 spots on the 40 man roster and I'd like to add Archer, Guyer, Chirinos, and Cabrera. That fills the roster and you have no major league improvement, so some of the 10 identical relievers need to go too

 

Brad Snyder is also out of options. He's not likely to make the team next spring, so there's another spot.

 

And Xavier Nady's spot will be taken by our new regular 1B.

[CubsWin]

If only Archer, Guyer, Chirinos and Cabrera are protected, I think Kyle Smit is the one most likely to be taken. We see pitchers, relievers especially, easily stashed away for a season. As a 22 year old, Smit went 10-4 with a 2.25 ERA between A+ and AA, striking out 63 while walking only 14 in 72 innings. He had a 1.64 GO/AO and allowed 4 HRs, all of which came in the bandboxes of the California League. Marquez Smith's lack of versatility makes him an unappealing bench player. And no one's taking him in the Rule 5 to be their starting 3B.

 

If one more of the arms like Marcos Mateo was removed from the list, keeping Smit might not be a bad idea.

[toonsterwu]

I'd keep Mateo over Smit without a 2nd thought, in all honesty. I don't know what the Cubs will do, and I'm certainly cognizant of the fact that Mateo is on the bubble. There aren't many guys in the system with his level of stuff, and out of the pen, if I'm gambling on an arm, I'm gambling on stuff. Smit's nice, low 90's fastball, good curve, but it's middle relief potential. Mateo's got a real good hard mid-80's slider to go with that mid-90's fastball. His BB rates have never been that bad ... it's been consistency of stuff issues (and the HR ball has plagued in the bigs). There's some late inning potential with his arm. If he finds consistency on the fastball, he'll be fine. The slider's been relatively solid in the bigs. The fact that he's 27 next year doesn't help his cause, though. Shame his changeup never developed.

[toonsterwu]

Looking at the options information, much as I'd like to keep Fuld around, I think he's a goner (he had a real nice 2nd half). Wouldn't be surprised for him to sign a minor league deal with another org, get a NRI to spring and have a shot to be in the bigs next year. Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing Fuld as a 5th OF, pinch runner, defensive replacement type, but with Jim Adducci in AAA, along with Brandon Guyer nipping on the heels, I just don't see it happening.

 

Hoffpauir should be a goner as well. Nice organizational guy, but without options, there's no point to keeping him around when he can't be a consistent bench threat.

 

Gray should be gone. The power potential was always intriguing, but he can't translate that into performance. A K rate in the 4-5 range at AAA simply isn't enticing, particularly when there isn't pinpoint control to add onto it.

 

Scales is a goner as well. It's been somewhat acknowledged that he's on as a reward of sorts.

 

That takes it down to 39. Barring a surprise, Nady won't be brought back, so that's 38. If I had to take some guesses at this early juncture, I'd guess

 

- Angel Guzman is going to be non-tendered. Could I see the Cubs bringing him back? Sure, but not at the million or so range that he might get.

 

- Koyie Hill will be non-tendered. Maybe he does get brought back, but Chirinos is viewed quite highly in the organization, and the organization has never seemed to be that down on Castillo. Unless a trade happens, I think Hill gets non-tendered for now.

 

- From Atkins/Berg/Gaub/Mateo/Parker/Schlitter/Stevens, I think 2 of them will likely be taken off. My guess right now would be Gaub and Parker, in all honesty.

 

That gets us to 34, which is enough to protect Chirinos, Archer, Cabrera, Guyer.

 

Personally, I'd also take off the 40

 

- James Adducci. Don't like the fact that his walk rate dipped, don't like the 20% K rate for his skillset. He's always been compared to as a bigger Fuld, but Fuld had much better discipline.

 

Borderline case -

 

Brad Snyder - I think how he performs down the stretch may determine whether or not he sticks around. My hunch is that the organization would like to see him stick as a depth OF who can offer some lefty pop off the bench.

 

Jeff Baker - Really comes down to payroll situation. If the Cubs have to trim some payroll, then I could see him get non-tendered, which might open the door for someone like Marquez Smith or a FA veteran bat, since Barney can backup three positions. Guess is that he'll be around, but who knows.

 

I hope that the Cubs deal

 

John Grabow - If Russell isn't exposed against righties too much, I think he should be alright. With Marshall there, and with Maine as either a 3rd lefty or in AAA, that's enough options. Even if you only save 500K, I just don't see a role for Grabow, particularly if it comes at the risk of letting a younger arm go. This might be wishing on a shining star, though. 4.8 million is a lot for a guy coming off a bad season where he had injuries. That said, many teams have odd reactions when they hear veteran lefty, so who knows.

 

Carlos Silva - Mid-season, this seemed like something that could be easily done, but now, teams will likely check the medical reports on him very carefully, making this harder. He's been better than we could've hoped for this year, and there's only 8 million to consider (2 million buyout in 2012). My guess is that we'll keep him around next year, but I'd like to open up a spot in the rotation for either an outside addition or a youngster.

[Guest]

I'd rather keep Mateo over Smit. The politics of just trading Lilly and Theriot for him (amongst others) might get in the way there.

 

I'm sure Gooz will be non-tendered but I hope the Cubs can bring him back next season.

[CubsWin]

I'd keep Mateo over Smit without a 2nd thought, in all honesty. I don't know what the Cubs will do, and I'm certainly cognizant of the fact that Mateo is on the bubble. There aren't many guys in the system with his level of stuff, and out of the pen, if I'm gambling on an arm, I'm gambling on stuff. Smit's nice, low 90's fastball, good curve, but it's middle relief potential. Mateo's got a real good hard mid-80's slider to go with that mid-90's fastball. His BB rates have never been that bad ... it's been consistency of stuff issues (and the HR ball has plagued in the bigs). There's some late inning potential with his arm. If he finds consistency on the fastball, he'll be fine. The slider's been relatively solid in the bigs. The fact that he's 27 next year doesn't help his cause, though. Shame his changeup never developed.

Yeah, he's got the harder fastball, but his control issues have hurt him. They improved a bit last season, so perhaps there's something to the fact that he was a starter and is now going full on bullpen that is working for him, but I feel safer going with youth, health and performance over what Mateo currently is bringing to the table.

 

I honestly can't say I know much about Kyle's stuff and how it compares to Marcos's. All I have are their stats, so that's what I'm going on. As far as previous seasons, Mateo was a 21 and 22 year old in Rookie ball in the Reds organization who finally made A- by the age of 23 and pitched pretty well. Smit was an 18 year old drafted in the 5th round out of high school, did well in Rookie ball as a 19 year old (2.82 ERA, more Ks than IP, 3-to-1 K/BB ratio, good WHIP) and was promoted to A- later that year. He struggled to succeed being young for the MWL, but appears to have put it all together last year as a 22 year old in A+/AA.

 

It just seems like the Cubs are likely to get more productive years out Smit than Mateo at this point. And Mateo's never had a season like Smit did this year. As a 25 year old last year at AA he put up a 4.07 ERA, a WHIP of 1.44, striking out just 70 while walking 43 in 97.1 innings. Smit easily beat that at the same level while being 2 1/2 years younger.

 

The Cubs may have something in Kyle Smit. It would sting more if he got taken. Mateo may be closer to contributing at the major league level and have more overpowering stuff, but Dominican live arms with control issues who are way too old for their level aren't as rare as 5th round high schoolers who make good and put up a year like Smit did this year (10-4, 2.25, 1.64 GO/AO, 63 K/14 BB in 72 IP).

[JeffH]

I'd keep Mateo over Smit without a 2nd thought, in all honesty. I don't know what the Cubs will do, and I'm certainly cognizant of the fact that Mateo is on the bubble. There aren't many guys in the system with his level of stuff, and out of the pen, if I'm gambling on an arm, I'm gambling on stuff. Smit's nice, low 90's fastball, good curve, but it's middle relief potential. Mateo's got a real good hard mid-80's slider to go with that mid-90's fastball. His BB rates have never been that bad ... it's been consistency of stuff issues (and the HR ball has plagued in the bigs). There's some late inning potential with his arm. If he finds consistency on the fastball, he'll be fine. The slider's been relatively solid in the bigs. The fact that he's 27 next year doesn't help his cause, though. Shame his changeup never developed.

Yeah, he's got the harder fastball, but his control issues have hurt him. They improved a bit last season, so perhaps there's something to the fact that he was a starter and is now going full on bullpen that is working for him, but I feel safer going with youth, health and performance over what Mateo currently is bringing to the table.

 

I honestly can't say I know much about Kyle's stuff and how it compares to Marcos's. All I have are their stats, so that's what I'm going on. As far as previous seasons, Mateo was a 21 and 22 year old in Rookie ball in the Reds organization who finally made A- by the age of 23 and pitched pretty well. Smit was an 18 year old drafted in the 5th round out of high school, did well in Rookie ball as a 19 year old (2.82 ERA, more Ks than IP, 3-to-1 K/BB ratio, good WHIP) and was promoted to A- later that year. He struggled to succeed being young for the MWL, but appears to have put it all together last year as a 22 year old in A+/AA.

 

It just seems like the Cubs are likely to get more productive years out Smit than Mateo at this point. And Mateo's never had a season like Smit did this year. As a 25 year old last year at AA he put up a 4.07 ERA, a WHIP of 1.44, striking out just 70 while walking 43 in 97.1 innings. Smit easily beat that at the same level while being 2 1/2 years younger.

 

The Cubs may have something in Kyle Smit. It would sting more if he got taken. Mateo may be closer to contributing at the major league level and have more overpowering stuff, but Dominican live arms with control issues who are way too old for their level aren't as rare as 5th round high schoolers who make good and put up a year like Smit did this year (10-4, 2.25, 1.64 GO/AO, 63 K/14 BB in 72 IP).

 

Where did the Smit vs. Mateo question come from? Mateo's safe, IMO. Atkins, Berg, Gaub, Parker, Schlitter, and Stevens are all at greater risk than Mateo. Schlitter is awful. I was a big Berg supporter because of his Webbesque sinker, but he's just not a viable major league pitcher - poor command and a low K rate.

[Bear Cub]

Why is Berg in the Majors and Jeff Stevens, who at times has looked pretty good, at home?

[Guest]

I'm with JeffH on that. There are a whole host of pitchers who should be taken off the 40-man before you start worrying about Mateo and Smit - namely Schlitter, Atkins and Berg. I hope Parker and Gaub are safe for one more year.

[toonsterwu]

I just wonder if the Cubs keep Gaub around after his breakdown this year, and with Maine on the 40, Russell probably in the bigs, and along with at least a couple lefties in the upper levels (I mean, chances of Sommer/Siegfried/Buchter all getting plucked are rather slim. I highly doubt any get plucked, but you never know).

[toonsterwu]

Why is Berg in the Majors and Jeff Stevens, who at times has looked pretty good, at home?

 

My best guess is that the Cubs have always been somewhat overly fascinated with Berg's sinker.

[toonsterwu]

As for Schlitter, I'm okay if they keep him around for another season. He had a decent-solid year in AAA. Wish the walks were down a bit. If he can get it down a bit, he might be a nice power arm to bring in as a middle reliever.

[CubsWin]

Where did the Smit vs. Mateo question come from? Mateo's safe, IMO. Atkins, Berg, Gaub, Parker, Schlitter, and Stevens are all at greater risk than Mateo. Schlitter is awful. I was a big Berg supporter because of his Webbesque sinker, but he's just not a viable major league pitcher - poor command and a low K rate.

I got no problem with any of that. I just think Smit is worthy of protection. Cut somebody and give him a spot. Now that's just based on his numbers, age and level. If I get a scouting report that says he can't cut it at the major league level, then that all goes out the window.

[toonsterwu]

Smit definitely has a shot to make it in the bigs, provided the right opportunity and situation comes along. Depending on available spaces, it is certainly possible that they keep him around.