Hendry NOT looking to rebuild Cubs

[Magnetic Curses]

If we spend a dime on Arthur Rhodes, I'm going to be livid.

 

I feel like a fan of a team 10 years ago said the same thing. That man is going to pitch until he dies.

 

2001 was rhodes's best season, iirc. plus, dude is really good.

[Guest]

If we spend a dime on Arthur Rhodes, I'm going to be livid.

 

Not as livid as I'll be if we trade Wells for anything less than Evan Longoria.

I get that you like Randy Wells and that we shouldn't discount what he has done, but there are a lot of guys I would be for trading him for.

 

Here's the company that Wells keeps, as a 3+ win starter who has more than 3 years left til free agency:

 

David Price

Tommy Hanson

Ricky Romero

 

Having 2 great seasons as a SP, his complete lack of injury history, his relatively fresh arm from converting from catcher, his sinker/ground ball heavy tendencies, his low walk rate, and most importantly, his FOUR years til he gets his payday make him an extremely valuable commodity. Trading such a commodity just to have the right to pay someone like Adrian Gonzalez 25 million dollars is a really poor idea, never mind adding in a good bit more value.

 

That said, I'm not diametrically opposed to paying big in players to get top talent. The Cubs problem is not having enough great, and because of the scarcity of great, they may have to pay more than is ideal to get it. But giving up top MLB talent like Wells just undermines the purpose. I'd rather they do something like overwhelm the Twins with prospects for Morneau or the Mariners for Felix or the Marlins for Johnson or the Indians for Choo or I think you get the idea.

[Magnetic Curses]

has wells really been all that great this year, though? he's been decent.

[Guest]

has wells really been all that great this year, though? he's been decent.

 

His FIP this year is 3.56, just ahead of names like Sabathia and Cain, and just behind names like Greinke, Santana, and Price.

[Magnetic Curses]

well that shut me up

[Vinestal]

*sigh* we are going to suck for a while apparently we really really need a new GM this guy is delirious.

[illiniguy]

If we spend a dime on Arthur Rhodes, I'm going to be livid.

 

Not as livid as I'll be if we trade Wells for anything less than Evan Longoria.

I get that you like Randy Wells and that we shouldn't discount what he has done, but there are a lot of guys I would be for trading him for.

 

Here's the company that Wells keeps, as a 3+ win starter who has more than 3 years left til free agency:

 

David Price

Tommy Hanson

Ricky Romero

 

Having 2 great seasons as a SP, his complete lack of injury history, his relatively fresh arm from converting from catcher, his sinker/ground ball heavy tendencies, his low walk rate, and most importantly, his FOUR years til he gets his payday make him an extremely valuable commodity. Trading such a commodity just to have the right to pay someone like Adrian Gonzalez 25 million dollars is a really poor idea, never mind adding in a good bit more value.

 

That said, I'm not diametrically opposed to paying big in players to get top talent. The Cubs problem is not having enough great, and because of the scarcity of great, they may have to pay more than is ideal to get it. But giving up top MLB talent like Wells just undermines the purpose. I'd rather they do something like overwhelm the Twins with prospects for Morneau or the Mariners for Felix or the Marlins for Johnson or the Indians for Choo or I think you get the idea.

I agree with you, just think for the right hitter I would move him. The one thing we have done well is develop pitchers and it would be nice to add more young hitters. But yeah, as you've stated Wells is really good and we shouldn't be giving him away.

[NonProfitCow]

That team marketing report has got to be messed up. All the beers at Busch stadium are 16 oz and are 8 bucks at the absolute cheapest.

[Tyrant]

has wells really been all that great this year, though? he's been decent.

 

His FIP this year is 3.56, just ahead of names like Sabathia and Cain, and just behind names like Greinke, Santana, and Price.

 

I get that FIP measures all sorts of things that ERA doesn't reflect, but it's still weird to me to say that Wells has been "great."

 

It's mostly semantics, I understand. I'd be fine with saying his peripherals are good, but the results have been mediocre. His WHIP is 1.40. That's not great.

[davearm2]

has wells really been all that great this year, though? he's been decent.

 

His FIP this year is 3.56, just ahead of names like Sabathia and Cain, and just behind names like Greinke, Santana, and Price.

 

I get that FIP measures all sorts of things that ERA doesn't reflect, but it's still weird to me to say that Wells has been "great."

 

It's mostly semantics, I understand. I'd be fine with saying his peripherals are good, but the results have been mediocre. His WHIP is 1.40. That's not great.

If you buy into the sabermetric principles at work here, you'd conclude that the mediocre results were largely out of Wells' control.

 

That said, I agree with you. Great tends to imply dominant, and he hasn't been that. What he's been is effective.

[squally1313]

has wells really been all that great this year, though? he's been decent.

 

His FIP this year is 3.56, just ahead of names like Sabathia and Cain, and just behind names like Greinke, Santana, and Price.

 

I get that FIP measures all sorts of things that ERA doesn't reflect, but it's still weird to me to say that Wells has been "great."

 

It's mostly semantics, I understand. I'd be fine with saying his peripherals are good, but the results have been mediocre. His WHIP is 1.40. That's not great.

 

Yeah, it sounds weird, but the way I see it is that if he were to continue to pitch exactly the way he's been pitching in the future, we should expect the actual results (ERA, WHIP, etc) to be much better. His BABIP against is .336 right now, 42 points higher than last season, and way above the average pitching BABIP of .290-.300. Yes, his line drive rate is up (from 18.8 to 22.6), but so is his strikeout rate per 9 (5.66 to 7.08), while his walk rate his stayed consistent.

 

Calculating FIP only takes into account walks, strikeouts, and homeruns (http://www.ehow.com/how_2288361_calculate-fip-statistic.html), so I assume it normalizes everything else like line drive rate, strand rate, etc. With Wells' LD% just a bit above league average, you'd expect his ERA to be a little higher than his FIP in terms out he could control (that is, eliminating strand rate and others), but not .81 higher.

[Tyrant]

has wells really been all that great this year, though? he's been decent.

 

His FIP this year is 3.56, just ahead of names like Sabathia and Cain, and just behind names like Greinke, Santana, and Price.

 

I get that FIP measures all sorts of things that ERA doesn't reflect, but it's still weird to me to say that Wells has been "great."

 

It's mostly semantics, I understand. I'd be fine with saying his peripherals are good, but the results have been mediocre. His WHIP is 1.40. That's not great.

 

Yeah, it sounds weird, but the way I see it is that if he were to continue to pitch exactly the way he's been pitching in the future, we should expect the actual results (ERA, WHIP, etc) to be much better. His BABIP against is .336 right now, 42 points higher than last season, and way above the average pitching BABIP of .290-.300. Yes, his line drive rate is up (from 18.8 to 22.6), but so is his strikeout rate per 9 (5.66 to 7.08), while his walk rate his stayed consistent.

 

Calculating FIP only takes into account walks, strikeouts, and homeruns (http://www.ehow.com/how_2288361_calculate-fip-statistic.html), so I assume it normalizes everything else like line drive rate, strand rate, etc. With Wells' LD% just a bit above league average, you'd expect his ERA to be a little higher than his FIP in terms out he could control (that is, eliminating strand rate and others), but not .81 higher.

 

I agree with all of this. It was more the issue of saying he's BEEN great. He's hasn't been great, but he projects to have better results in the future.

 

I was being picky, that's all.

[lumafia]

has wells really been all that great this year, though? he's been decent.

 

His FIP this year is 3.56, just ahead of names like Sabathia and Cain, and just behind names like Greinke, Santana, and Price.

 

I get that FIP measures all sorts of things that ERA doesn't reflect, but it's still weird to me to say that Wells has been "great."

 

It's mostly semantics, I understand. I'd be fine with saying his peripherals are good, but the results have been mediocre. His WHIP is 1.40. That's not great.

 

Yeah, it sounds weird, but the way I see it is that if he were to continue to pitch exactly the way he's been pitching in the future, we should expect the actual results (ERA, WHIP, etc) to be much better. His BABIP against is .336 right now, 42 points higher than last season, and way above the average pitching BABIP of .290-.300. Yes, his line drive rate is up (from 18.8 to 22.6), but so is his strikeout rate per 9 (5.66 to 7.08), while his walk rate his stayed consistent.

 

Calculating FIP only takes into account walks, strikeouts, and homeruns (http://www.ehow.com/how_2288361_calculate-fip-statistic.html), so I assume it normalizes everything else like line drive rate, strand rate, etc. With Wells' LD% just a bit above league average, you'd expect his ERA to be a little higher than his FIP in terms out he could control (that is, eliminating strand rate and others), but not .81 higher.

 

I agree with all of this. It was more the issue of saying he's BEEN great. He's hasn't been great, but he projects to have better results in the future.

 

I was being picky, that's all.

 

So, I guess you are saying that he's been very FIPpy this year.

[Rob]

I agree with all of this. It was more the issue of saying he's BEEN great. He's hasn't been great, but he projects to have better results in the future.

 

I was being picky, that's all.

 

If you're being picky...

 

He's pitched great. He just hasn't gotten great results.

[Tyrant]

I agree with all of this. It was more the issue of saying he's BEEN great. He's hasn't been great, but he projects to have better results in the future.

 

I was being picky, that's all.

 

If you're being picky...

 

He's pitched great. He just hasn't gotten great results.

 

Eh, even if you go purely by FIP and nothing else, he's 29th in the league. That's good. Great would be a stretch.

[Dallas Green]

I am also a big fan of Wells. That being said where do you put him as far as starters go? a #3?

 

( )

Dempster

Wells

Gorz

Cashner?

[Dallas Green]

I am also a big fan of Wells. That being said where do you put him as far as starters go? a #3?

 

( )

Dempster

Wells

Gorz

Cashner?

[Dallas Green]

I am also a big fan of Wells. That being said where do you put him as far as starters go? a #3?

 

( )

Dempster

Wells

Gorz

Cashner?

[jersey cubs fan]

what are your feelings on wells?

[lumafia]

I love lamp.

[lumafia]

I love lamp.

[squally1313]

I am also a big fan of Wells. That being said where do you put him as far as starters go? a #3?

 

( )

Dempster

Wells

Gorz

Cashner?

 

Like it or not, odds are we're going to have Zambrano on the team last year, and mental issues/salary aside, he's clearly got the talent to be one of our 5 starting pitchers.

 

I agree that it would be nice to add a top arm for next year, but unfortunately outside of Lee I don't see much, and the predictions I've heard for what he's going to get (7 years, 150 million) seem like a lot for someone who will be 32 at the end of this month. Just going over the free agent list, the one I see who could be a top of the line pitcher is De La Rosa, but I haven't heard his name mentioned much so I'm assuming that he might not be on the market. I'd take a flier on Webb, and see if anything comes up through trades.

 

On the subject of Cashner, everyone here agrees that his future is in the rotation, and hopefully at the top of it. However, with the way he's been treated this year, does anyone else think it might be best for him to start in the minors next season, and get him readjusted to starting? I'm not talking longterm, just a month or two, but it seems foolish to rush him without making sure his arm can handle it. Odds are, his inning total for the year is going to end up at around 120 (88 right now), which isn't much, but would still be a career high for him. The decision to put him in the bullpen was a bad one, and seems even worse now that we are completely out of the race and all he really needs are innings, but it is what it is. He's only 23, and there's no need to rush him.

 

If we end up not getting a starter in the offseason, I'd be fine going Demp/Z/Wells/Gorz/Silva to start the year, as long as we don't throw one of our young starters in the bullpen. Yes, it would be a rotation that is average at best, but it would also mean that AAA's rotation would be something like Jackson/Cashner/Diamond/Shark/Atkins, with Archer/Carpenter/Rhee/etc right behind them. If one of those guys forces the Cubs to call them up, then Silva's expendable, Demp could have a trade market, or the young pitchers could be packaged in a deal. Ideally though, we pick up that top of the rotation starter that we need and our pitching is a strength next year.

[jersey cubs fan]

On the subject of Cashner, everyone here agrees that his future is in the rotation, and hopefully at the top of it. However, with the way he's been treated this year, does anyone else think it might be best for him to start in the minors next season, and get him readjusted to starting? I'm not talking longterm, just a month or two, but it seems foolish to rush him without making sure his arm can handle it. Odds are, his inning total for the year is going to end up at around 120 (88 right now), which isn't much, but would still be a career high for him. The decision to put him in the bullpen was a bad one, and seems even worse now that we are completely out of the race and all he really needs are innings, but it is what it is. He's only 23, and there's no need to rush him.

 

I think it is more than just smart to start him in the minors, it's almost an imperative. If he finishes 2010 in the majors he's looking at maybe a 105 inning season, and no starts since May. I would not be all that comfortable putting him in the rotation next April.

[pccubfan]

On the subject of Cashner, everyone here agrees that his future is in the rotation, and hopefully at the top of it. However, with the way he's been treated this year, does anyone else think it might be best for him to start in the minors next season, and get him readjusted to starting? I'm not talking longterm, just a month or two, but it seems foolish to rush him without making sure his arm can handle it. Odds are, his inning total for the year is going to end up at around 120 (88 right now), which isn't much, but would still be a career high for him. The decision to put him in the bullpen was a bad one, and seems even worse now that we are completely out of the race and all he really needs are innings, but it is what it is. He's only 23, and there's no need to rush him.

 

I think it is more than just smart to start him in the minors, it's almost an imperative. If he finishes 2010 in the majors he's looking at maybe a 105 inning season, and no starts since May. I would not be all that comfortable putting him in the rotation next April.

 

As it stands now, barring injury, there isn't a spot in the rotation for Cashner. I would bet however, that he will be in the bullpen next year because he can help the big league club there. If Hendry does truly survive this season, I have to believe that he starts next season on the hot seat, and if there isn't significant progress made from the get go, he's gone. With that scenario in mind Cashner will be with the major league club trying to help Jim keep his job.

[squally1313]

I completely agree. If anything, I'd try to talk some team into thinking Silva's season this year, pre-heart problems, can be repeated, and have them take him off our hands without us having to pay all of his salary. Maybe wishful thinking, but his numbers were pretty good and you have to believe he can give a team 180 innings. If you can do that, and pencil Demp/Z/Wells/Gorz into the top 4 spots (assuming we don't get anyone else), then let Jackson/Shark/Diamond battle it out for the fifth spot. But yes, Cash should be in AAA to start the year, hopefully joined quickly by Archer, Carpenter, Rhee, etc