Re: What do you predict the 2011 Cubs will look like?

[pitchcs]

i still don't know what dunn's defense is like at first. is it okay? i'd still like him, considering he'll probably come pretty cheap again.

 

I've watched him over there a few games. He can catch balls thrown to him. I don't know if I've ever seen him dig a throw out of the dirt. He usually misses them. I'd say his defense would really frustrate us, after having DLee over there for so long.

 

 

Ha, this was funny....I would sure hope so!

[javy knows my name]

we're going to have to eat alot of money to make it happen

 

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_D_Z-D2tzi14/S8TWUJ0APWI/AAAAAAAACwI/014KRxexoQ0/s1600/ALOT3.png

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_D_Z-D2tzi14/S8TZcKXqR-I/AAAAAAAACwg/F7AqxDrPjhg/s1600/ALOT13.png

 

http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com/2010/04/alot-is-better-than-you-at-everything.html

[questionmarkgrace]

two scenarios.: 1 where Jim Hendry stays and one where he is fired. Similar results

 

Aramis stays no matter what, he could hit 40 hr's from here on out and not get the money he is currently getting. The market has changed. Z probably stays either way as well.

 

If Hendry is here he will probably try to resign Lou, Derrek Lee, trade fukudome for nothing, sign a second baseman proclaim him leadoff man, resign Lilly for too much, and overpay for a reliever. Other than that same team same crap. We will be bored by june and won't be watching in august.

 

If Hendry is axed :beg: so is lou, Ryno steps up even though Brenly is probably the better candidate. Sign a first baseman Overbay seem like the stopgap or move soriano to first and sign an outfielder. Idk Kubek, Crawford? Still probably need a second baseman Jose Lopez? he can play third too. Given the fact that the cubs need a go to run producer and the absence of these guys besides Dunn and Pena, who i don't expect to sign here. Lily is gone in favor of J Jackson or Cashner and we will end up a bit better than this year but still very much mediocre. i don't think that there is anything the cubs can do next year to get over the hump. Sure they could make the playoffs but that is probably a stretch. Our pitching staff is also probably due for a step back. We still need that go to guy 3 hitter and we probably won't find him.

[inari]

Where on the field does a 3 hitter play?

[soapy]

I think Lee gets re-signed to a 2-year deal. Cubs spend on pitching.

 

C- Soto

1B- Lee

2B- Theriot

SS- Castro

3B- Ramirez

LF- Soriano

CF- Byrd

RF- Colvin

 

Bench- RH OF to backup Colvin, backup C (I guess Hill still), maybe a Mora or Willington or Bill Hall to backup IF and Ramirez especially, Darwin Barney

 

SP- Dempster, Wells, Cashner, and sign 2 pitchers; 1 RHP (Javier Vasquez, Tim Hudson), and a LHP (De la Rosa, Noah Lowry)

CL- Marmol

RP- Zambrano (on the team, establishes himself as a decent late inning RP the rest of this year and stays there), Marshall, Gorzellany, 2 of Stevens, Parker, Gaub, and sign JJ Putz to provide insurance for Z at setup

 

I know you said this is what you think they will do, not what you hope, but: It seems like the starting rotation is actually an area that the Cubs can get some relatively cheap production in the next few years. I'd hate to see them go out and spend a bunch of money on FA starters when they have perfectly good candidates in-house with Cashner, J. Jackson and Gorzelanny. I'd be pretty disappointed if they went out and signed someone like De la Rosa over putting Gorzelanny in the rotation.

[jersey cubs fan]

Where on the field does a 3 hitter play?

 

First base.

[apete6]

I hope this is what we see (partially realistic version). They will suck, but they can develop some young guys and save money for a year before a better FA class after the 2011 season.

 

C: Geovany Soto

1B: Micah Hoffpauir (More likely: Adam Dunn 2/$20)

2B: Jeff Baker (More Likely: Christian Guzman 2/$5 moving Baker to bench)

SS: Starlin Castro

3B: Aramis Ramirez

LF: Alfonso Soriano

CF: Marlon Byrd

RF: Tyler Colvin

 

Bench: Austin Kearns (Platoon 1B and backup OF)

Wellington Castillo (Backup C)

Mike Fontenot (Backup 2B and 3B-non tendered if Baker on bench)

Darwin Barney (Backup SS)

Sam Fuld (Backup OF)

 

Rotation: Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, Tom Gorzellany, Carlos Zambrano, Carlos Silva

Bullpen: Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, Andrew Cashner, Jeff Stevens, James Russell, Esmailan Caridad, Angel Guzman

 

I think they should offer arbitration to Lee and Lilly. If they accept, then welcome back and Kearns would be gone and Cashner would be starting at AAA (like he should be anyway, but they like him in the pen). Gorzo would go back to the pen, Russell would go to AAA and one of the Berg/Atkins/Caridad/Schlitter/Samardzija crew would be up.

 

In my scenario, they non-tender or trade Theriot and DFA Grabow. I also can't see Aramis opting out. If he does (like he should because of a terrible 3B market), maybe they sign a Jorge Cantu to play 3B because I can't see them giving him more than the 2 years he has remaining after all of his injuries.

 

In this scenario, they would trade Kosuke either this year or in the offseason for salary relief and maybe a low level prospect.

 

I can't see a scenario where they would be able to trade Zambrano or where they would just DFA him and eat his whole contract.

 

Obviously I could see them signing a veteran RH reliever (Putz, Wood, Downs?) so that (hopefully) Cashner and Jay Jackson can continue to start in the minors and be ready to come up when they finally bail on Zambrano and after Silva's deal is up after 2011.

 

If they do decide to cheap out and pretty much give up on 2011, I think they should just let Sandberg see what he can do with the team. He might be able to sell a few tickets and get his chance to manage a Cubs team with low expectations. If he's truly terrible, maybe they can get him to retire after the season and take a front office/ambassador position.

 

If they go the other way and sign some FAs and make some trades to compete better, then sign a real manager.

[dew1679666265]

Minor nitpick, but Scott Downs is a lefty.

[apete6]

Minor nitpick, but Scott Downs is a lefty.

 

Ah yes, maybe Frasor is the Toronto RHP I was thinking of.

[treebird]

1B: Micah Hoffpauir

 

major league teams should not give starting jobs to 30 year old first basemen hitting .239/.338/.433 in the pcl. i don't care if we're going to be bad, there's still no reason to waste a spot like that.

[dew1679666265]

Minor nitpick, but Scott Downs is a lefty.

 

Ah yes, maybe Frasor is the Toronto RHP I was thinking of.

 

Yeah, Frasor started the year closing some for Toronto. He's not all that good, though.

[apete6]

1B: Micah Hoffpauir

 

major league teams should not give starting jobs to 30 year old first basemen hitting .239/.338/.433 in the pcl. i don't care if we're going to be bad, there's still no reason to waste a spot like that.

 

But why spend $10m on Adam Dunn or Carlos Pena when you're going to suck anyway? I'd rather wait a year and go after Prince or Adrian Gonzalez.

 

Also, I said to offer Lee arbitration and he could accept and you have him on a 1 year deal.

[jersey cubs fan]

1B: Micah Hoffpauir

 

major league teams should not give starting jobs to 30 year old first basemen hitting .239/.338/.433 in the pcl. i don't care if we're going to be bad, there's still no reason to waste a spot like that.

 

But why spend $10m on Adam Dunn or Carlos Pena when you're going to suck anyway? I'd rather wait a year and go after Prince or Adrian Gonzalez.

 

Also, I said to offer Lee arbitration and he could accept and you have him on a 1 year deal.

 

Whatever you do, don't deliberately field a team with Micah Hoffpauir as your opening day 1B. It's not like they would carry over that $10m in savings to the next year.

[apete6]

1B: Micah Hoffpauir

 

major league teams should not give starting jobs to 30 year old first basemen hitting .239/.338/.433 in the pcl. i don't care if we're going to be bad, there's still no reason to waste a spot like that.

 

But why spend $10m on Adam Dunn or Carlos Pena when you're going to suck anyway? I'd rather wait a year and go after Prince or Adrian Gonzalez.

 

Also, I said to offer Lee arbitration and he could accept and you have him on a 1 year deal.

 

Whatever you do, don't deliberately field a team with Micah Hoffpauir as your opening day 1B. It's not like they would carry over that $10m in savings to the next year.

 

OK, who is a better option when considering performance, $$$, and possible prospects/players traded for?

[jersey cubs fan]

OK, who is a better option when considering performance, $$$, and possible prospects/players traded for?

 

Most everybody.

[scarey]

Why is everyone so high on Welington Castillo? The guy seems to have a strong arm and can hit for power, but he rarely walks, doesn't hit for average, and from what I've heard is average at best behind the plate.

 

Clevenger and Chirinos to me are better catching options. Chirinos sounds like he is the most well rounded of the three and best defender while Clevenger could be an offensive assett with his ability to get on base along with better than average receiving skills.

 

Everyone seems to have jumped to the conclusion that Castillo is the back up next year, but a guy with a career .703 OPS in the minors isn't too high on my list personally. I know the other two aren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard, but at least they have respectable OBPs.

[dew1679666265]

OK, who is a better option when considering performance, $$$, and possible prospects/players traded for?

 

I'd look at Cantu or Wigginton. For instance, sign Cantu to a 3/21 deal to start at first next year and then shift him over to third in 2012 when Aramis walks. If Aramis walks after this year, Wigginton would almost certainly be had on a 1/5 type deal for first if we picked up Cantu to play third.

[dew1679666265]

Why is everyone so high on Welington Castillo? The guy seems to have a strong arm and can hit for power, but he rarely walks, doesn't hit for average, and from what I've heard is average at best behind the plate.

 

Clevenger and Chirinos to me are better catching options. Chirinos sounds like he is the most well rounded of the three and best defender while Clevenger could be an offensive assett with his ability to get on base along with better than average receiving skills.

 

Everyone seems to have jumped to the conclusion that Castillo is the back up next year, but a guy with a career .703 OPS in the minors isn't too high on my list personally. I know the other two aren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard, but at least they have respectable OBPs.

 

I've always thought of Castillo being closer to the majors than the other two. I don't know that any of them will be overly productive major leaguers, but Castillo is in AAA and seems to be the next in line once Koyie Hill moves on.

[apete6]

OK, who is a better option when considering performance, $$$, and possible prospects/players traded for?

 

Most everybody.

 

Agreed that he sucks. But I'm sick of the overpaying 2nd tier players in an attempt to fill the stadium and get fans excited when you're just crippling your team long term.

 

If we would have just taken the rebuilding approach before going buck wild in FA with Soriano, Fukudome, etc... we wouldn't be in such a dire predicament right now. Granted, we had a great year in 2008, but outside of that, we haven't gotten anything out of the Piniella/Soriano era yet (2007 doesn't count because the division sucked so bad) because we're paying 5 or 6 guys as superstars when they're just good supporting players (Bradley (now Silva), Lee, Soriano, Zambrano, Fukudome, Dempster, and even Ramirez to an extent even though he's a top 3 at his position when healthy). When the Yankees overspend, they get great players like ARod, Teixiera, and Sabathia. When we overspend, we get guys who are a bit over league average but paid like superstars.

 

Why would we start that all over again by overpaying a guy like Carlos Pena instead of just taking our lumps for a year with a guy like Hoffpauir? I know it's been 102 years, but why not allow for a rebuilding year? Unless you're going to spend $200 million every year and/or draft & develop extremely well, you need to have intentional rebuilding years. Maybe if the Cubs understood that, we wouldn't be like 1-7 against the Pirates with the 3rd highest payroll in the league.

 

But, you're right, starting Micah Hoffpauir for 1 rebuilding season would be the worst thing that's ever happened to the Cubs.

[jersey cubs fan]

Why is everyone so high on Welington Castillo? The guy seems to have a strong arm and can hit for power, but he rarely walks, doesn't hit for average, and from what I've heard is average at best behind the plate.

 

Clevenger and Chirinos to me are better catching options. Chirinos sounds like he is the most well rounded of the three and best defender while Clevenger could be an offensive assett with his ability to get on base along with better than average receiving skills.

 

Everyone seems to have jumped to the conclusion that Castillo is the back up next year, but a guy with a career .703 OPS in the minors isn't too high on my list personally. I know the other two aren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard, but at least they have respectable OBPs.

 

That was his career OPS before this year. It's a bit better now. He's a fairly young guy, and catchers at least have a reputation of developing offensively a little later than most. Plus, we're talking about a backup catcher option here, the guy doesn't need to be a stud.

 

Also, I'm not so sure "everyone is so high" on him.

[Guest]

Preferring Castillo to Hill isn't really being high on him. As for Clevenger and Chirinos, Clevenger is a 24 year old who can't hit in AA, and Chirinos has been in the system since GWB was inaugurated the first time and has never been past AA. If you want an in house catching option for next year, Castillo's the guy.

[Guest]

I think it's because Castillo is on the 40-man. I'm with you, I prefer Chirinos. I know most who pay attention to the minors prefer Castillo but he needs to really put his tools together. Chirinos has come a long way defensively in his short time as a catcher and his bat would be just fine as a backup catcher.

[apete6]

Why is everyone so high on Welington Castillo? The guy seems to have a strong arm and can hit for power, but he rarely walks, doesn't hit for average, and from what I've heard is average at best behind the plate.

 

Clevenger and Chirinos to me are better catching options. Chirinos sounds like he is the most well rounded of the three and best defender while Clevenger could be an offensive assett with his ability to get on base along with better than average receiving skills.

 

Everyone seems to have jumped to the conclusion that Castillo is the back up next year, but a guy with a career .703 OPS in the minors isn't too high on my list personally. I know the other two aren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard, but at least they have respectable OBPs.

 

I've always thought of Castillo being closer to the majors than the other two. I don't know that any of them will be overly productive major leaguers, but Castillo is in AAA and seems to be the next in line once Koyie Hill moves on.

 

I agree with Dew, but the reason I put Castillo on is I believe that he would be Rule 5 eligible if he wasn't protected next year and if you move one of the other guys onto the 40 man there may not be room for Castillo. I'd rather just give him a chance as the backup than lose him for nothing. If that's not true, then Chirinos or Clevenger would be fine as backups.

 

Let's be honest, if any of those guys is getting playing time over Soto, we're screwed anyway like we are this year because our manager is butt buddies with Koyie Hill.

[jersey cubs fan]

OK, who is a better option when considering performance, $$$, and possible prospects/players traded for?

 

Most everybody.

 

Agreed that he sucks. But I'm sick of the overpaying 2nd tier players in an attempt to fill the stadium and get fans excited when you're just crippling your team long term.

 

If we would have just taken the rebuilding approach before going buck wild in FA with Soriano, Fukudome, etc... we wouldn't be in such a dire predicament right now. Granted, we had a great year in 2008, but outside of that, we haven't gotten anything out of the Piniella/Soriano era yet (2007 doesn't count because the division sucked so bad) because we're paying 5 or 6 guys as superstars when they're just good supporting players (Bradley (now Silva), Lee, Soriano, Zambrano, Fukudome, Dempster, and even Ramirez to an extent even though he's a top 3 at his position when healthy). When the Yankees overspend, they get great players like ARod, Teixiera, and Sabathia. When we overspend, we get guys who are a bit over league average but paid like superstars.

 

Why would we start that all over again by overpaying a guy like Carlos Pena instead of just taking our lumps for a year with a guy like Hoffpauir? I know it's been 102 years, but why not allow for a rebuilding year? Unless you're going to spend $200 million every year and/or draft & develop extremely well, you need to have intentional rebuilding years. Maybe if the Cubs understood that, we wouldn't be like 1-7 against the Pirates with the 3rd highest payroll in the league.

 

But, you're right, starting Micah Hoffpauir for 1 rebuilding season would be the worst thing that's ever happened to the Cubs.

 

Don't be an idiot. I didn't say it was the worst thing to happen. I said it's a stupid idea.

 

Starting Micah Hoffpauir at 1B accomplishes nothing if what you want is to rebuild. The Cubs don't need to tank a season and/or save a ton of cash one year to try and get better three years later. They have the means of fielding a competitive team any year and still get better down the road. Micah Hoffpauir is an old crappy minor leaguer. There's just no reason for his name to be mentioned for potential 2011 Chicago Cubs openind day rosters.

[dew1679666265]

Agreed that he sucks. But I'm sick of the overpaying 2nd tier players in an attempt to fill the stadium and get fans excited when you're just crippling your team long term.

 

If we would have just taken the rebuilding approach before going buck wild in FA with Soriano, Fukudome, etc... we wouldn't be in such a dire predicament right now. Granted, we had a great year in 2008, but outside of that, we haven't gotten anything out of the Piniella/Soriano era yet (2007 doesn't count because the division sucked so bad) because we're paying 5 or 6 guys as superstars when they're just good supporting players (Bradley (now Silva), Lee, Soriano, Zambrano, Fukudome, Dempster, and even Ramirez to an extent even though he's a top 3 at his position when healthy). When the Yankees overspend, they get great players like ARod, Teixiera, and Sabathia. When we overspend, we get guys who are a bit over league average but paid like superstars.

 

Why would we start that all over again by overpaying a guy like Carlos Pena instead of just taking our lumps for a year with a guy like Hoffpauir? I know it's been 102 years, but why not allow for a rebuilding year? Unless you're going to spend $200 million every year and/or draft & develop extremely well, you need to have intentional rebuilding years. Maybe if the Cubs understood that, we wouldn't be like 1-7 against the Pirates with the 3rd highest payroll in the league.

 

But, you're right, starting Micah Hoffpauir for 1 rebuilding season would be the worst thing that's ever happened to the Cubs.

 

If you go with a Cantu or Wigginton type guy, you're really not overpaying much and you're getting pretty good production. Cantu could play first next year and then shift over to third and play there until Vitters (hopefully) is ready. If you go with Wigginton, he'd probably be perfectly fine with a 1-year deal and then you can potentially trade him at the deadline for a prospect or two.

 

I wouldn't like going for a Carlos Pena and giving him a 3-4 year deal, though, and killing our chances of going after Gonzalez/Fielder in 2011, but a stopgap type guy like Cantu or Wigginton would be semi-cheap production for a team that needs that.