2010 Cubs Picks & Signings Thread

[Guest]

So is there just no chance we're signing Steven Brooks, or is he a contingency if we don't get someone? I haven't seen any news on him in a month.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The superslot offer to Sczur got me thinking. We are always eager to pay superslot. But have we ever had a superslot who actually worked out? I'm trying to go through my list of superslot types over my memory dating back 10 or 12 years:

 

Bobby Hill.

Bobbie Brownlie.

Andy Sisco:

Mark Reed:

Grant Johnson

Samardz.

Huseby

Rundle

Watkins

Raley

 

Seems to me our record with superslot signings, guys we got relatively late because other teams passed due to their signing demands, is not too impressive.

 

I don't count the $100-200 type late round guys, really. $100-160 really is slot for non-juniors, no matter how late they are drafted. So I don't really see McNutt or Struck.

 

Perhaps our most successful superslots:

1. jeff Russell, although his success is modest and his money was "over" but not really "super".

2. Samardzija, I suppose, since like Russell at least he's made the majors. But given the size of his "super" bonus, his success hasn't been that successful.

3. I don't really include Mark Prior, because picking a guy 2nd isn't exactly sliding. But I suppose one could argue he'd qualify.

 

Dontrell Willis I think was paid $250 or something, something of a superslot. Although Hendry has said he made some kind of mistake in this, and paid him overslot in part because of some promise made or something. I can't remember.

 

I just thought it was kind of fun to go back down memory lane, and think of some of these draft picks I was so motivated to have the Cubs sign, how glad I was when they paid some superslot to bring them in, and now to look back on how little value they provided. Funny.

 

Hopefully Sczur will be break that mold.

 

Also, I don't ramble this just to be snarky, or to have another "Cubs are so dumb" thread. We know the success rate with any draft pick is pretty iffy. So I'm not sure our lack of success with superslots is any reason to quit trying, or that it is particularly unusual.

 

I think that Raley, Huseby, and Watkins deserve a bit more time before theyre lumped in with that bunch.

 

And is there any news on the Reggie Golden front? It would suck to let a 2nd rounder walk, but you dont want to overpay for a guy just because he sees himself as 1st round talent and wants the money to match. Sounds like someone who could become a pain in the ass in the future.

[craig]

I think that Raley, Huseby, and Watkins deserve a bit more time before theyre lumped in with that bunch.

 

And is there any news on the Reggie Golden front? It would suck to let a 2nd rounder walk, but you dont want to overpay for a guy just because he sees himself as 1st round talent and wants the money to match. Sounds like someone who could become a pain in the ass in the future.

 

On Golden, I hope we get him in, that he works out, and he proves he deserves 1st round money (whether we pay him that or not.) I'm really eager to have the Cubs somehow get some position prospects who look like with luck they might bat somewhere in the 3-6 middle if they develop as hoped.

 

Whatever Golden is asking dollar-wise, I would assume that the Cubs did their due diligence, and drafted him with an awareness of what his bonus expectations were. If they knew he was demanding 1st round type cash and don't think he's worth it, then pick somebody else. If they picked him, I'm pretty confident they thought his money expectations were not unreasonable or beyond what they thought they'd be able/willing to pay. Hard to know for sure, of course; a team can expect a guy to back off some when push comes to shove; if the player doesn't budge or compromise at all, maybe a guy you thought you could sign ends up stonewalling you and it doesn't work out.

 

*On Raley it's his first year, and he's had some effective games, so he's certainly still got a fair chance.

*Huseby as a 22-year-old short-season DH, I've heard he's done with pitching for good, and is now hoping to go forward exclusively as a hitter. Crazy things can happen in baseball, so maybe he'll turn into Dave Kingman. But I'm guessing most organizations have at least 100 prospects each who have better big-league odds than a 22-year-old, 6'7" long-swinging DH hitting .208 with a .519 OPS in short season. Perhaps Rundel's chance as a pitcher is as good or better than Huseby's as a slugger.

*Watkins has shown no indication of growing into any power (I'd hoped he'd mature into at least a little punch when we signed him), has shown no instinct for base-stealing (12B/5CS), and K's like a slugger (60K/255 AB). With a 60K/0HR ratios, he's going to need a very healthy BABIP just to hit .250. (His BABIP this year is just fine, that's what's kept him as high as .247.) I think Watkins may approach roster-fill status soon enough, and that Cerda has been starting some at 2nd lately may reflect that.

[Guest]

I don't see how you can determine if Reggie Golden is a pain in the ass based on contract negotiations. If he is, over half the players who are drafted are pains in the ass.

 

The superslot offer to Sczur got me thinking. We are always eager to pay superslot. But have we ever had a superslot who actually worked out? I'm trying to go through my list of superslot types over my memory dating back 10 or 12 years:

 

Bobby Hill.

Bobbie Brownlie.

Andy Sisco:

Mark Reed:

Grant Johnson

Samardz.

Huseby

Rundle

Watkins

Raley

 

Seems to me our record with superslot signings, guys we got relatively late because other teams passed due to their signing demands, is not too impressive.

 

I don't count the $100-200 type late round guys, really. $100-160 really is slot for non-juniors, no matter how late they are drafted. So I don't really see McNutt or Struck.

 

Perhaps our most successful superslots:

1. jeff Russell, although his success is modest and his money was "over" but not really "super".

2. Samardzija, I suppose, since like Russell at least he's made the majors. But given the size of his "super" bonus, his success hasn't been that successful.

3. I don't really include Mark Prior, because picking a guy 2nd isn't exactly sliding. But I suppose one could argue he'd qualify.

 

Dontrell Willis I think was paid $250 or something, something of a superslot. Although Hendry has said he made some kind of mistake in this, and paid him overslot in part because of some promise made or something. I can't remember.

 

I just thought it was kind of fun to go back down memory lane, and think of some of these draft picks I was so motivated to have the Cubs sign, how glad I was when they paid some superslot to bring them in, and now to look back on how little value they provided. Funny.

 

Hopefully Sczur will be break that mold.

 

Also, I don't ramble this just to be snarky, or to have another "Cubs are so dumb" thread. We know the success rate with any draft pick is pretty iffy. So I'm not sure our lack of success with superslots is any reason to quit trying, or that it is particularly unusual.

 

Craig, one thing that stands out on your list are surprise superslots - guys that BA or Perfect Game didn't have rated that highly who still got major bonuses. I would think Reed, Johnson, Huseby and Watkins would go under that title (and while Samardzija was a first round talent, the amount he got might suggest he was a major surprise too). Hill, Brownlie (injuries though), Sisco, Rundle and Raley weren't surprise overslots. It sounds like when Stockstill or Wilken have gone off the beaten path, it hasn't worked that well.

 

I agree that it's too soon to judge Raley but we have more than enough time to say Huseby is a bust. He'll probably be cut this offseason. Watkins looks like a utility guy; it might not be time to write him off since he's young and in Peoria but he's not looking too good this season.

[craig]

Austin Reed at 6'3", 12th round, supposedly athletic HS pitcher who I thought scouted as at least touching 90 as a 1st-year pitcher, have we gotten any bonus idea on him? Is he in the same standard $100-150 zone that covers Greathouse, Kurtz, Rhoderick, Richardson, hartman, and Fitzgerald?

 

Or do you think he might have gotten more, perhaps significantly more?

 

Just curious whether we should envision his pre-draft status as comparable, or whether he's perhaps viewed in a somewhat higher class?

 

Also, I'm just assuming Richardson was standard $100-150. Do we know that, or might he have been a $250 guy for all we know?

 

It certainly is kind of fun to have a bunch of young HS/JC picks signed and starting off fast at Mesa/Boise. The combined numbers for Reed, Fitzgerald, Kurtz, as well as Loosen and Ebinger at Mesa have been terrific. Would sure be fun if this went down as a real impact draft with a big volume of young picks who develop and change the organization.

 

I'm just a fan, and I know that one successful 1st round pick typically trumps a batch of 10th rounders who look fine in short season but get hurt or wash out before AA. But as a farm watcher, it is fun to have numbers of guys who are young enough that I can imagine whatever I want in term of their potential excellence, and who aren't starting off haplessly enough to make them uninteresting. (Gibbs is the only pick who's working in that direction early on...)

 

And it may be that the ability to get Simpson so cheap, a guy I honestly believe Wilken really believed in as BPA (rightly or wrongly), might be facilitating a lot of these picks.

 

It's feasible that if the choice was between $1.0 Simpson and a HS prospect that would have required $2.2 overslot, that an extra $1.2 saved could be funding a dozen Fitzgerald/Kurtz/Reed/Richardson/Geiger signings that would otherwise have needed to be college slot picks.

[craig]

http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20100711/SPORTS07/7110328/1093/SPORTS07/Transitioning+to+the+pros

 

I posted this in minors, but thought I'd copy it here where it fits better. A lengthy interview with Geiger. Confirms he's 3B for now. No scouting info other than that. They asked him about money, and he said he got the full college scholarship clause, but wouldn't say about what his actual signing bonus was. The interview didn't give any indication that he was any massive superslot or anything. Sounded like he was happy to go pro, that he saw the money for school as a major part of his package.

 

So I'm guessing this is the standard $100 (or less) plus college kind of deal. Not Logan Watkins or Huseby or anything like that.

 

" It's usually a pretty good signing bonus. What they did for me is they gave me a signing bonus up front and a full college scholarship plan. If I ever want to go back to school after we're done, I have money locked away that is strictly for school that I can touch whenever I want. The stipulation is that I have to finish up my college degree in 10 years, which is probably one of the easiest situations ever."

[Outshined_One]

Andy Seiler's been posting excerpts from his 2010 Draft Notebook. Today he posted his report on Reggie Golden, which is a pretty good read.

[utkcub]

Andy Seiler's been posting excerpts from his 2010 Draft Notebook. Today he posted his report on Reggie Golden, which is a pretty good read.

Sounds promising :roll:

His hit tool gets fringe-average grades, and he should be a .260 hitter for most of his career.

[UK1679666180]

Andy Seiler's been posting excerpts from his 2010 Draft Notebook. Today he posted his report on Reggie Golden, which is a pretty good read.

Sounds promising :roll:

His hit tool gets fringe-average grades, and he should be a .260 hitter for most of his career.

 

Drafting someone with offensive ceiling of Mike Cameron isn't a bad thing.

[Outshined_One]

Andy Seiler's been posting excerpts from his 2010 Draft Notebook. Today he posted his report on Reggie Golden, which is a pretty good read.

Sounds promising :roll:

His hit tool gets fringe-average grades, and he should be a .260 hitter for most of his career.

 

Once you get out of the first round, it becomes really hard to find guys who don't have substantial questions about their future. If Golden can draw walks with regularity and his power comes as advertised, a .260 batting average wouldn't be a bad thing.

 

Seiler gave him a 1B1 rating, which translates as follows:

 

1 - Expected to go in rounds 1-3

B - Ceiling is an occasional All Star/above average position player

1 - 10% likelihood of reaching that ceiling

 

For the second round, that's pretty good.

[Outshined_One]

Continuing Seiler's reports, here's Micah Gibbs.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Continuing Seiler's reports, here's Micah Gibbs.

What's 1C4 translate to?

[Outshined_One]

Continuing Seiler's reports, here's Micah Gibbs.

What's 1C4 translate to?

 

Link

 

The first digit is a snapshot of the round range I expect a player to go in. A 1 is a player expected to go in rounds 1-3, 2 is rounds 4-6, 3 is rounds 7-10, 4 is rounds 11-15, and 5 is rounds 16-25.

 

The second piece is a letter that gives a player's ceiling. An A is a superstar position player or true number one starter/elite closer. A B is an occasional all star/above-average position player or number two starter/above-average closer. A C is a solid-average starting position player or a number three/four starter/setup man. A D is a potential bench player or fifth starter/swing man/middle reliever.

 

The third piece is a digit that tells you the likelihood of a player reaching their ceiling. A 10% chance is just changed to a 1, 20% to a 2, etc. I'm very conservative with this part of the grade, because there are a ton of variables that go into reaching a ceiling, and it's harder to reach a ceiling the higher you go up in your ceiling.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Thanks, I was struggling trying to find that explanation on the site.

[davell]

According to AZPhil, 41st rounder Dallas Beeler has signed.

[Outshined_One]

According to AZPhil, 41st rounder Dallas Beeler has signed.

 

BA also has him as signed. His online bio mentions he had Tommy John Surgery last year and worked pretty well in relief outings.

[CubColtPacer]

Bruce's blog today included this nice news:

 

I’m told the Cubs are getting close to signing their No. 2 draft pick, Reggie Golden, an outfielder with power out of Wetumpka High School in Alabama.

[Guest]

That's good news. Sounds like Wells and Rhoderick are close too. That would leave DeJesus in the top 10 rounds.

 

Hope they can also somehow sign Brooks, Pinckard and Harper.

[Guest]

That's good news. Sounds like Wells and Rhoderick are close too. That would leave DeJesus in the top 10 rounds.

 

Hope they can also somehow sign Brooks, Pinckard and Harper.

I wonder if the Cubs will link paying out for some of these kids to being able to move salaries this deadline. I'd hope they choose to reinvest some of those savings with signing their overslot guys and some international FA's.

[davell]

That's good news. Sounds like Wells and Rhoderick are close too. That would leave DeJesus in the top 10 rounds.

 

Hope they can also somehow sign Brooks, Pinckard and Harper.

I wonder if the Cubs will link paying out for some of these kids to being able to move salaries this deadline. I'd hope they choose to reinvest some of those savings with signing their overslot guys and some international FA's.

 

 

That's what I'm wondering too......If we are going to focus on our system, as it seems Ricketts wants to do, I'd like to see some bigtime money spent on International signings. If we lose 5 mill or so of Lilly's contract, I'd like to see it get put back into the team this way.

 

I'd like to add Harman and Crum to your list too.

[TruffleShuffle]

That's good news. Sounds like Wells and Rhoderick are close too. That would leave DeJesus in the top 10 rounds.

 

Hope they can also somehow sign Brooks, Pinckard and Harper.

I wonder if the Cubs will link paying out for some of these kids to being able to move salaries this deadline. I'd hope they choose to reinvest some of those savings with signing their overslot guys and some international FA's.

 

 

That's what I'm wondering too......If we are going to focus on our system, as it seems Ricketts wants to do, I'd like to see some bigtime money spent on International signings. If we lose 5 mill or so of Lilly's contract, I'd like to see it get put back into the team this way.

 

the other way of doing this is to trade lilly and send the rest of his salary... that should sweeten the deal for cash-strapped teams and bring back better prospects.

[Guest]

That's good news. Sounds like Wells and Rhoderick are close too. That would leave DeJesus in the top 10 rounds.

 

Hope they can also somehow sign Brooks, Pinckard and Harper.

I wonder if the Cubs will link paying out for some of these kids to being able to move salaries this deadline. I'd hope they choose to reinvest some of those savings with signing their overslot guys and some international FA's.

 

 

That's what I'm wondering too......If we are going to focus on our system, as it seems Ricketts wants to do, I'd like to see some bigtime money spent on International signings. If we lose 5 mill or so of Lilly's contract, I'd like to see it get put back into the team this way.

 

the other way of doing this is to trade lilly and send the rest of his salary... that should sweeten the deal for cash-strapped teams and bring back better prospects.

If we're able to unload a few vets, I'd like to see a balanced approach to this.

[Guest]

Tim (Chicago): Any update if Reggie Golden is close to signing?

 

Jim Callis: Expect something within the next week. He'll sign for over slot, so we have to be careful it doesn't destroy MLB's delicate economy. Sigh.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1279725629

[TruffleShuffle]

who gives a [expletive]. mlb has no authority to restrain spending on draft picks. tell selig's minions to blow it out their ass.

[Outshined_One]

Quick link on signing bonus approval...

 

I have some news that slightly over slot bonuses could start getting approved as early as Friday, with the approved bonuses starting at about $350K for 6th round and beyond players and roughly 10-15% above slot for players in the slotted rounds (1st-5th rounds).

 

Slot last year where Golden was picked was around $550,000. If his signing is getting approved come Friday, he probably signed for somewhere around $600K.