2010 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection Committee

[ISUCubsFan]

I'd like to pre-emptively argue that Louisville isn't very good. Their entire resume is beating Syracuse twice. Granted, those are monster wins, but beyond that they have 1 win over a tourney team against ND.(Cincy is the only other team they've beaten with a chance) Coupled with that are losses at home to bad Charlotte(BY 22!), and worse Western Carolina.

Yeah, they do have that terrible home loss, and played very few games away from home on the year (finished 5-8 overall including last night's game). They also finished 9-10 against the top 100. However, that road win at Syracuse is undoubtedly the best win of any of the teams in consideration, and considering how weak the bubble is I think they're safe. I initially had them a lot lower on my list, but there are a lot of BAD teams around the bubble right now, so they are the lesser of many evils.

 

Yep, (in retrospect I had them too low) just wanted to preemptively argue against anyone seeing those wins over Cuse and putting them as a 5 seed or something. Not that I have a clue who deserves a 5 seed out of this lot.

 

I had Louisville in the 10 seed area on my preliminary S-Curve (after last night), so I agree completely. For the sake of argument, here's what I think about the 20 teams on our bubble (As always, these aren't final and subject to change):

 

Virginia Tech - Lots of solid wins (@GT, Wake, Clemson) and no terrible losses. They're easily off of my bubble.

UNLV - Split with all the MWC contenders including NM on the road. Also beat L'ville. Being swept by Utah is bad, but they're still fine.

Georgia Tech - VT with more losses and a bad road record, but a big win over Duke.

UTEP - They really needed to beat a tourney lock at some point, but their dominance of CUSA is impressive enough to have them in for now.

California - Beating Murray St., Washington, and ASU twice is solid. Losing to UCLA and Oregon St. not so much. Needs to avoid another bad loss (i.e. make the finals).

Illinois - So many good wins and so many losses. This year's Arizona now that UConn is dead.

Mississippi - No good conference wins, but they beat K-State and UTEP at neutral sites. With only one bad loss they're just in my field.

UAB - They beat Butler. Really nothing other than that either good or bad.

Washington - No road work and some suspect losses, but wins over Cal, ASU, and A&M are solid for a team in a mid-major conference.

Seton Hall - My first team out. A few solid wins, but the best is Pitt at home. 12 losses is a lot to overcome.

San Diego St. - Beat NM and UNLV and..? That's not enough to overcome losing to Pacific and Wyoming for me. Need another good win.

South Florida - @G'town is a good win (and getting better), but there aren't enough wins and a few uninspiring losses pull them down.

Arizona St. - Might have the least damaging losses in the Pac-10, but their best wins are over two bubble teams (Wash, SDSU) at home.

Cincinnati - Poor man's Illinois. They need to win at least one more, probably more.

Dayton - Xavier, Old Dominion, and GT are good wins, but some ugly losses are holding them down.

Utah St. - I'm a lot lower on these guys than everyone else, but beating BYU doesn't make a resume, especially with 4 bad losses.

Minnesota - Actually Minnesota is probably a better Illinois comparison. They also need to make the finals for a chance.

Memphis - Why does everyone have them in? They swept UAB? They also lost to SMU and UMass.

Rhode Island - Decent road work, but the only win over a tourney team is Ok St. Two bad losses at the end of the year did them in.

Mississippi St. - Lost at Western Kentucky and at home Rider. Three wins over bubble teams and that's it.

 

Edit: I agree with leaving Syracuse where they are for now.

[Andy]

Another not good moment for a bubble team: Memphis trailing Houston in the CUSA quarters with 5 mins to play. There may not be anyone at-large worthy out of that conference either.

I still think UTEP deserves one

Me too.

[SouthSideRyan]

Are we in agreement that if Houston pulls this out then Memphis is out of consideration?

[ISUCubsFan]

Are we in agreement that if Houston pulls this out then Memphis is out of consideration?

 

Yep, and Memphis loses. So awesome that they lost by one after a Memphis player rejected his own dunk with his face earlier in the game.

[Andy]

Memphis is out for sure. I had them out already.

[Vanilla Ice]

Wake looking like they are going to lose to Miami. Definitely pulls down their seeding. They should still be on the right side of the bubble, but this would be their fifth loss in six games.

[bukie]

Wake lost by 21 to the worst team in the ACC. Though still better than the worst team in any other conference, still not good.

[Cubswin11]

Wake lost by 21 to the worst team in the ACC. Though still better than the worst team in any other conference, still not good.

Probably drops them to a 5-6 seed? Maybe a 4 if the rest of the tournaments play out without many upsets?

[Vanilla Ice]

Wake lost by 21 to the worst team in the ACC. Though still better than the worst team in any other conference, still not good.

Probably drops them to a 5-6 seed? Maybe a 4 if the rest of the tournaments play out without many upsets?

Definitely way lower than that

[bukie]

UAB trails Southern Miss by 15 at the half. Not a good day for bubble teams, unless said bubble team isn't playing today.

[bukie]

Wake lost by 21 to the worst team in the ACC. Though still better than the worst team in any other conference, still not good.

Probably drops them to a 5-6 seed? Maybe a 4 if the rest of the tournaments play out without many upsets?

Definitely way lower than that

Wake could be looking at the 8-9 game at this point. If not worse.

[ISUCubsFan]

UAB trails Southern Miss by 15 at the half. Not a good day for bubble teams, unless said bubble team isn't playing today.

 

In addition to Larry Eustachy destroying UAB like they're a case of Natty Light, New Mexico-Air Force and Texas A&M-Nebraska are both close and late.

[bukie]

Also, Marquette beat Villanova, who also apparently decided they'd rather not play 3 games this weekend.

[Vanilla Ice]

Also, Marquette beat Villanova, who also apparently decided they'd rather not play 3 games this weekend.

I've got them as the last 7 seed? Sound about right?

[ISUCubsFan]

Also, Marquette beat Villanova, who also apparently decided they'd rather not play 3 games this weekend.

I've got them as the last 7 seed? Sound about right?

 

For Marquette, yes. I had them as my first 8 seed before today.

[bukie]

New Mexico avoids a terrible loss and beats Air Force 75-69.

[Old Style]

UAB trails Southern Miss by 15 at the half. Not a good day for bubble teams, unless said bubble team isn't playing today.

 

In addition to Larry Eustachy destroying UAB like they're a case of Natty Light, New Mexico-Air Force and Texas A&M-Nebraska are both close and late.

:rotfl:

 

The Aggies ended up putting Nebraska away. We were without our starting PG Dash Harris today. He re-aggravated a wrist injury last Saturday. He could play if he had to, but I think they are just going to rest him so he is as healthy as possible for the Dance. I think it is a smart move by Mark Turgeon.

[snoodmonger]

UAB trails Southern Miss by 15 at the half. Not a good day for bubble teams, unless said bubble team isn't playing today.

 

In addition to Larry Eustachy destroying UAB like they're a case of Natty Light, New Mexico-Air Force and Texas A&M-Nebraska are both close and late.

:rotfl:

 

The Aggies ended up putting Nebraska away. We were without our starting PG Dash Harris today. He re-aggravated a wrist injury last Saturday. He could play if he had to, but I think they are just going to rest him so he is as healthy as possible for the Dance. I think it is a smart move by Mark Turgeon.

 

I wonder if he'll sit tomorrow out to avoid Aldrich suplexing him like he did that first game.

[Old Style]

Only a real man can take down someone 8" shorter and 100+ pounds lighter. That Aldrich dude is a freakin' STUD.

 

:good:

[ISUCubsFan]

San Diego State survives against Colorado State. Cal is the only bubble team that appears to be trying today.

[bukie]

Oklahoma State making some form of a statement against Kansas State tonight.

[snoodmonger]

Only a real man can take down someone 8" shorter and 100+ pounds lighter. That Aldrich dude is a freakin' STUD.

 

:good:

 

Simmer down there, buddy. I was making fun of the no call, not Dash losing in a physical confrontation to Aldrich.

[bukie]

It's a good day to be a bubble team. As long as you're not playing today...

 

About 10 hours left to get me the two lists.

[bukie]

Arizona State just lost to Stanford.

 

EDIT: Also, Cincinnati and WVU tied at 51 with 3 seconds to play. If Cincy wins, all 4 top seeds in the Big East tourney are done.

[bukie]

And WVU hits a 3 at the buzzer to win it. Lots of bubble teams lost today.